The Association Football AFL Thread 3.0

[hawkman]

Can't say I heard your lot too much.

Loudest noise for the game was Hawthorn crashing back to earth. Cannot believe most believed Meek would smash SDK and your midfield would smack us (they didn't) and you'd surely win because of it.

Yeah we were awful. Got dominated around the contest

 

[RPCB]

Gees the Giants have fallen off a cliff haven't they.

I blame you.

 

[Magma]

26-4 tackles inside 50. insane difference.

 

[Sphynx]

Need a decent midfield too.

/s

That non-elite Sheezel, aye.

35 touches, 10 clearances (3 center clearances) and a goal and he only spent 48% of his game time in the midfield

 

[Misher]

That non-elite Sheezel, aye.

35 touches, 10 clearances (3 center clearances) and a goal and he only spent 48% of his game time in the midfield

Sheezel went at 64.3% kicking efficiency from 14 kicks.

Rozee, who you said was a “terrible kick”, went at 68.4% kicking efficiency from 19 kicks.

Stats aye.

 

[SM]

That non-elite Sheezel, aye.

35 touches, 10 clearances (3 center clearances) and a goal and he only spent 48% of his game time in the midfield

McKercher too!

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Huge win for the Giants, I wrote them off but that turns things around.

That non-elite Sheezel, aye.

35 touches, 10 clearances (3 center clearances) and a goal and he only spent 48% of his game time in the midfield

He's a special talent. Honestly, if I was offered either him or N. Daicos, I'll go for Sheezel any day.

 

[Sphynx]

McKercher too!

Lacks top end talent I reckon.

 

[Misher]

Lacks top end talent I reckon.

Can you explain why Conor Rozee, a guy who you called “one of the biggest turnover merchants in the league” during the week, averages less turnovers per game than Wardlaw, Sheezel and Davies-Uniacke this season?

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Can you explain why Conor Rozee, a guy who you called “one of the biggest turnover merchants in the league” during the week, averages less turnovers per game than Wardlaw, Sheezel and Davies-Uniacke this season?

Well he’s in a better team and a few years older. But Kicking and disposal efficiency he’s below all those three and two of them are clearance specialists.

 

[DBAH0]

I blame you.

Ha fair enough, certainly did not see that turnaround happening after the 1st quarter.

 

[RPCB]

Ha fair enough, certainly did not see that turnaround happening after the 1st quarter.

Our backline started falling apart when Weiters and McGovern had lots of time off the field, but GWS played very well in the second and third, so it was more how they played than anything else. Just one of those games.

 

[Sphynx]

Can you explain why Conor Rozee, a guy who you called “one of the biggest turnover merchants in the league” during the week, averages less turnovers per game than Wardlaw, Sheezel and Davies-Uniacke this season?

Because there's these guys, they concentrate entirely on every single kick, in every single game, every weekend.

They rate the difficulty of the kick and it's execution.

They do full reviews of their in game decisions during the week.

They have him rated as the 200-250th best user by foot in the competition and have consistently had the same results for him for 3-4 years.

If you disagree with them because of a simple disposal eff stat, that's your opinion. Im not going to get in an argument with you, as you are probably someone that just looks in a disposal column in the paper.

You unloading in this thread after his 2nd biggest game of the year is a perfect example of the bias I was explaining.

 

[Misher]

Well he’s in a better team and a few years older. But Kicking and disposal efficiency he’s below all those three and two of them are clearance specialists.

View attachment 2041026

OK, let’s compare apples with apples. Wardlaw is younger and Sheezel hasn’t been a full time mid, so the best example is LDU and Rozee.

And just for the record, Davies-Uniacke is older than Conor Rozee.

Rozee averages 13.8 kicks (8.4 effective) with a kicking efficiency of 60.9%. He averages 4.3 turnovers, 3.5 clangers and has an overall disposal efficiency of 69.5%.

Davies-Uniacke averages 13.4 kicks (8.3 effective) with a kicking efficiency of 61.9%. He averages 4.6 turnovers, 3.6 clangers and has an overall disposal efficiency of 72.2%.

As you can see from these relevant kicking and disposal statistics, the differences between the two players in every single category is extremely marginal. During the week, one player was labeled “one of the biggest turnover merchants in the league” and a “terrible kick” with “poor kicking execution” who has been “largely rubbish” this year, whilst the other has been labeled “easily as elite”.

We were assured that data “cuts through natural bias” and that “the eye lies”

 

[Sphynx]

OK, let’s compare apples with apples. Wardlaw is younger and Sheezel hasn’t been a full time mid, so the best example is LDU and Rozee.

And just for the record, Davies-Uniacke is older than Conor Rozee.

Rozee averages 13.8 kicks (8.4 effective) with a kicking efficiency of 60.9%. He averages 4.3 turnovers, 3.5 clangers and has an overall disposal efficiency of 69.5%.

Davies-Uniacke averages 13.4 kicks (8.3 effective) with a kicking efficiency of 61.9%. He averages 4.6 turnovers, 3.6 clangers and has an overall disposal efficiency of 72.2%.

As you can see from these relevant kicking and disposal statistics, the differences between the two players in every single category is extremely marginal. During the week, one player was labeled “one of the biggest turnover merchants in the league” and a “terrible kick” with “poor kicking execution” who has been “largely rubbish” this year, whilst the other has been labeled “easily as elite”.

We were assured that data “cuts through natural bias” and that “the eye lies”

Now tell me where Rozee sits on CD's kick rating rankings?

You are assuming that every kick LDU and Rozee undertakes is in the same game situation, same contested situation, against a team with the same pressure?

All poor assumptions.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

OK, let’s compare apples with apples. Wardlaw is younger and Sheezel hasn’t been a full time mid, so the best example is LDU and Rozee.

And just for the record, Davies-Uniacke is older than Conor Rozee.

Rozee averages 13.8 kicks (8.4 effective) with a kicking efficiency of 60.9%. He averages 4.3 turnovers, 3.5 clangers and has an overall disposal efficiency of 69.5%.

Davies-Uniacke averages 13.4 kicks (8.3 effective) with a kicking efficiency of 61.9%. He averages 4.6 turnovers, 3.6 clangers and has an overall disposal efficiency of 72.2%.

As you can see from these relevant kicking and disposal statistics, the differences between the two players in every single category is extremely marginal. During the week, one player was labeled “one of the biggest turnover merchants in the league” and a “terrible kick” with “poor kicking execution” who has been “largely rubbish” this year, whilst the other has been labeled “easily as elite”.

We were assured that data “cuts through natural bias” and that “the eye lies”

The contested player will have less efficiency than the bloke who’s more outside. Turnover stats on their own and even these stats I’ve shown without context don’t mean as much.

Otherwise (and LDU has higher contested possession per game)….

 

[Misher]

Because there's these guys, they concentrate entirely on every single kick, in every single game, every weekend.

They rate the difficulty of the kick and it's execution.

They do full reviews of their in game decisions during the week.

They have him rated as the 200-250th best user by foot in the competition and have consistently had the same results for him for 3-4 years.

If you disagree with them because of a simple disposal eff stat, that's your opinion. Im not going to get in an argument with you, as you are probably someone that just looks in a disposal column in the paper.

You unloading in this thread after his 2nd biggest game of the year is a perfect example of the bias I was explaining.

Are you referring to Champion Data analysts? Didn’t you guys hire one as your list boss who had been working at CD for twenty years prior to joining you guys? He must’ve been a roaring success given how accurate and reliable Champion Data is. Wasn’t he the mastermind behind recruiting Jaidyn Stephenson, Atu Bosenavulagi and Callum Coleman-Jones? The guy who picked Will Phillips over Logan McDonald? What ended up happening to him? If he’s not at North anymore, he must’ve been poached by another club desperate for more star recruits like Jaidyn Stephenson, except last I heard Luffy was a golf operations manager at Bundoora Park.

There’s also these other guys, called coaches, who are extremely well paid and regarded as the best football minds in the industry and are one of the major reasons of on-field success. They disregard Champion Data and seem to think Rozee is a pretty handy player. I guess unlike you, coaches understand that there will never be a perfect, all-round algorithm that can be solely relied upon and will back in the eye test over any garbage formula compiled by under resourced and underpaid uni graduates.

And no, I just found it funny you came in here to brag about Sheezel’s game when the guy you were slagging off during the week made you look stupid.

 

[Misher]

Now tell me where Rozee sits on CD's kick rating rankings?

You are assuming that every kick LDU and Rozee undertakes is in the same game situation, same contested situation, against a team with the same pressure?

All poor assumptions.

Oh, so you’re saying that these stats require an eye test interpretation, something which you claimed “lied” during the week.

This is f***ing hilarious.

 

[Misher]

The contested player will have less efficiency than the bloke who’s more outside. Turnover stats on their own and even these stats I’ve shown without context don’t mean as much.

Otherwise (and LDU has higher contested possession per game)….

View attachment 2041078

I don’t even know what point you’re trying to make here apart from stating the obvious. What does Dusty have to do with anything?

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

I don’t even know what point you’re trying to make here apart from stating the obvious. What does Dusty have to do with anything?

Well his kicking efficiency is worse than LDU. You’re using turnovers to try and prove LDU is worse kick than Rozee

 

[Misher]

Well his kicking efficiency is worse than LDU. You’re using turnovers to try and prove LDU is worse kick than Rozee

The claim was Rozee is a turnover merchant. He’s averaging less turnovers per game than the three North midfielders. So unless Sphynx wants to concede the North mids are also turnover merchants, he should retract that claim and apologise to the board for spreading misinformation.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

The claim was Rozee is a turnover merchant. He’s averaging less turnovers per game than the three North midfielders. So unless Sphynx wants to concede the North mids are also turnover merchants, he should retract that claim and apologise to the board for spreading misinformation.

He averages twice the number of contested possessions ..you’re more likely to have more turnovers as a result

 

[Misher]

He averages twice the number of contested possessions ..you’re more likely to have more turnovers as a result

No he doesn’t hahaha.

LDU averages 12.4 contested possessions. Rozee averages 8.5 contested possessions. What constitutes as a contested possession can also be quite laughable (loose ball gets, free kicks won in a “contest”, etc.).

The whole point of this discussion that me and a few others were making the other day is that stats are largely useless and can be misleading and easily misrepresented. They need context which I appreciate is what you’re trying to provide, but at the end of the day nothing will beat the eye test.

This is why I place a lot of value in what the coaches perceive as a good game of football. They know the game better than anyone else and they know the role of the players. They also know what the opposition are doing to hurt you. There are a lot of things a number won’t tell you.

Richmond throughout their dynasty were one of the worst performed CD sides in the comp IIRC. Goes to show how meaningless it is when we had a group of 22 player consistently doing their role every week. We’d often get dominated on the stats sheets yet the scoreboard would always tell a different story. All the CD merchants were baffled how high SuperCoach scores did not equate to winning games of football. Probably because it means f*** all.

One day, maybe, AI will advance to the point where you can put a lot of value into numbers, but today is not that day.

 

[SM]

No he doesn’t hahaha.

LDU averages 12.4 contested possessions. Rozee averages 8.5 contested possessions. What constitutes as a contested possession can also be quite laughable (loose ball gets, free kicks won in a “contest”, etc.).

The whole point of this discussion that me and a few others were making the other day is that stats are largely useless and can be misleading and easily misrepresented. They need context which I appreciate is what you’re trying to provide, but at the end of the day nothing will beat the eye test.

This is why I place a lot of value in what the coaches perceive as a good game of football. They know the game better than anyone else and they know the role of the players. They also know what the opposition are doing to hurt you. There are a lot of things a number won’t tell you.

Richmond throughout their dynasty were one of the worst performed CD sides in the comp IIRC. Goes to show how meaningless it is when we had a group of 22 player consistently doing their role every week. We’d often get dominated on the stats sheets yet the scoreboard would always tell a different story. All the CD merchants were baffled how high SuperCoach scores did not equate to winning games of football. Probably because it means f*** all.

One day, maybe, AI will advance to the point where you can put a lot of value into numbers, but today is not that day.

You think coaches don't care about stats?

I think the 'the eye lies' comment was that the eye CAN lie, and that stats coupled with the eye test is the best way to judge players.

 

[Misher]

You think coaches don't care about stats?

coaches understand that there will never be a perfect, all-round algorithm that can be solely relied upon

I think the 'the eye lies' comment was that the eye CAN lie, and that stats coupled with the eye test is the best way to judge players.

I don’t necessarily disagree? All I’m arguing is that stats have their limitations and should always be secondary to the eye test.