Opinion The Fear Index

[CatToTheFuture]

The Fear Index

At the start of any endeavour we all encounter a fear of the unknown. The blank space in our heads, devoid of facts, creates its own reality.

But the size of the void isn't the same for all clubs, and fear isn't something with an absolute measurement. So here I've attempted to put fears into perspective by comparing them to something we are familiar with.

This thread will look at all clubs best 23 as listed by the AFTRDON Instagram account to assess what level of fear we should feel when looking forward to our 2024 matches against them.

Feel free to criticise, debate, or slander me in general.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Adelaide:
Defensively they have a bit to work with in Worrel and Michalanney (a name I will never not have to google the spelling of). I also like big Butts and I cannot lie.

I really like their forward mix, with the grand dragon up forward still getting it done, Fogarty and Thilthorpe capable too. The real threat though is Rachele and Rankin. We give them a look and it'll be difficult.

Their midfield though is going to continue to be very Dawson centric. He'll need support from a subset of Laird/Crouch/Sloane. This battle is going to be wildly affected by availability on the day.

Fear level: Strange genital skin condition.
Look this is probably not great but you really don't know what is going on until there's some testing.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Brisbane:
Brisbane has a good to average backline. I like Andrews, Wilmot, Starcevich and McKenna. I can't make an argument they'd match our forwards unless we're beaten elsewhere.

Their forward line is pretty good. There's enough weapons that someone will have a day out with enough entries. Advantage Brisbane.

Their midfield looks pretty great though. If these midfields match up 5 years ago we'd clean them up, I mean Ashcroft would have been in high school. But today? Yeah not sure.

Fear level: Drunk guy being aggressive in a pub. You don't know if he's had too much to drink to keep his feet. You don't know if he's all talk. Your biggest advantage is that it's September and he's drunk every day of Oktoberfest. But he is bigger than you and he's making threatening gestures

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Carlton:
Not gonna lie. They have great players everywhere. All we can do is pray for the traditional Carlton implosion which is always a short odds favourite.

Fear level: The Australian real estate market. Like the rise of house prices the rise of Carlton is a failure of governance at every level. It's a disruption to the social contract of our civilised society that in time will destroy everything you love. We are almost past fear and have moved on to mourning.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Collingwood:
Good backline with Moore, Howe, Quaynor, and Maynard being very good. On an even field I think our forwards are better but it's in the ballpark

Forward line doesn't have a bad player, nor an elite player which makes it complex to plan for. Schulz in his new side looks like the kind of player we're bad at stopping and Elliot when fit gives us a headache.

Midfield though looks older than ours and like us last year they are going to rely on availability of older players. Still, they have the group cohesion to cover each others weaknesses and are reigning premiers for a reason.

Fear level: We have nothing to fear but fear itself. When FDR made that speech the US was at the worst point of the great depression. Right now Collingwood are premiers. The situation is dire. But as was the case at FDRs inauguration, this year will be the worst it gets. Their power will break some time in the next 30 games. It is darkest before the dawn.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Essendon:
BZT out and McKay in is an improvement but not sure if moves the needle. Pretty sure all their needles went missing when Dank stormed out after a tip off that one time anyway.

That Caddy is straight into this best 22 as an 18 year old kpf who kind of looks a bit like a wing to me speaks volumes of the forward line, though I do like Gresham coming in.

The midfield listed is not good and I can't stress that highly enough.

Fear level: Babysitting your cousin while hungover. Somewhat annoying but not going to ruin your weekend much and you'll probably have fun once you start playing.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Fremantle:
Backline is their strongest line and against our forwards I say it looks a bit meh.

Their forwards have a couple of names that'll pop up, I like Amiss and Switkowski. They really need their mids to deliver for them to be potent though.
Let's check in on their midfield then... oh.. oh dear....

I like Brayshaw and Serong but a long year for them I think.

Fear level: Clown. Can be scary when you're 4 but older than that you realise it's just a guy that's not paid enough not to be hungover for this job.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Gold Coast:
I like budarick, Ballard and Powell in that backline. It's not the worst but good luck to them if we have good availability.

King and Luko are overdue to start delivering consistently so they could be a danger. They lack a really dangerous small though but have mids who will press. I think that kind of forward line is one we're set up for.

Their mids are kids mostly but on track to become a great cohort. Touk, Rowell, Anderson, Flanders are going to smash some. I think this overall match up is line ball on skill level and I'll give it to is on experience

Fear level: Strange transaction on your credit card. The account has been a set and forget aspect of your life for years and it could be nothing but you get the feeling you could be about to get cleaned out here.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

GWS:
Defensively they look solid but our forward is the best there is and you could say they're a quality kpd short. We won't lose it in this arc unless something else falls over.

Their forward line isn't going to rile up too many feathers with Riccardi and hogan, but our defence is usually pretty vulnerable to small/mediums so Greene and Daniels could stomp us if they get a look.

Will they get a look? Taking a look at the midfield... yes they will. Looking at their mids I don't see a player that is bad at afl level. We might be pushing s* uphill here.

Fear level: Work presentation to senior leadership containing uncomfortable conclusions. You can put your best foot forward, you can spin the positives, but this is unlikely to help your career and you know it.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Hawthorn:
Defensively their b23 features Sicily and Cj who are both guns but outside of that I have nothing positive to say. Won't need many entries to put a score on here.

Offensively I would recommend adding Nick Watson to your SuperCoach because I don't know who else is kicking their goals.

That midfield though will cause a few headaches but it's young and inconsistent

Fear level: a Karen asking you if your product contains gluten. A bit confronting at times but can't really hurt you in any meaningful way

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Melbourne:
Defenders look good, won't lie. If there's a back 6 that will beat our forwards without help it's these guys.

Their forwards are yet to be recruited but I'm sure they'll get some one day. Fritter and Pickett are good though.

The midfield match though is a cluster for us. Our only hope is going Clayton decides that he has a bright future in organised crime.

Fear level: You're in an fist fight with a drug dealer, but it's a skinny private school drug dealer whose dad is a lawyer. You are kicking the s* out of him now, but that might not matter because you're not sure if he's coming back with bikies, his dad, or not at all.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

North Melbourne:
Why is Zac Fisher

16

Zac Fisher

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.2

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.0

5star

MG

384.0

5star

D

17.0

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

MG

384.0

5star

D

12.2

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

3.0

5star

off half back? I did not know Aiden Corr was still playing. Charlie Combden CHB with maybe 10 games under his belt in this full fitness best 23 breeds fatalism.

I like Larkey and Zuurhar. Ford and Curtis aren't consistent but can pop up here and there.

The midfield has a full compliment of really talented players who will dominate the comp, in around 4-5 years.

Fear level: Unknown pills your mate gives you in a night club. You're almost certainly going to be fine, you're probably going to have a great time, and if you don't have a great time it's because of a choice you made not anyone else's.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Port Adelaide:
Defensive end, Aliir is a gun and with Sav taking the big units we'll probably see Aliir start to hit some real Tom Stewart areas. BZT good for a bit of rebound too. On balance not heaps concerned given our weapons but who knows.

Their forwards are real tall. Kardinia is narrow. Adelaide oval not as narrow but still a bit. Two of their ground level guys here are not actually forwards, though Rioli is a gun. Their forward mix is the kind we can beat I think but we need to blanket SPP to prevent the lock in.

That midfield though. Rozee/Butters/Wines with JHF/Boak/SPP taking rotations. That is good and with an actual ruck they might be really good.

Fear level: backyard cricket. Christmas day. You haven't played since you were 14. Your little brother that you constantly beat up on as a kid has never stopped and is now 32. Dad is watching. You've had 5 beers before midday and the sweat is beading on you. He's talking s*. You are overweight and your kids hate you. Still class is eternal and you were always better. You can do this.

 

[cats_09]

Hawthorn:
Defensively their b23 features Sicily and Cj who are both guns but outside of that I have nothing positive to say. Won't need many entries to put a score on here.

Offensively I would recommend adding Nick Watson to your SuperCoach because I don't know who else is kicking their goals.

That midfield though will cause a few headaches but it's young and inconsistent

Fear level: a Karen asking you if your product contains gluten. A bit confronting at times but can't really hurt you in any meaningful way

View attachment 1903475

Down with Hawthorn

 

[cats_09]

Port Adelaide:
Defensive end, Aliir is a gun and with Sav taking the big units we'll probably see Aliir start to hit some real Tom Stewart areas. BZT good for a bit of rebound too. On balance not heaps concerned given our weapons but who knows.

Their forwards are real tall. Kardinia is narrow. Adelaide oval not as narrow but still a bit. Two of their ground level guys here are not actually forwards, though Rioli is a gun. Their forward mix is the kind we can beat I think but we need to blanket SPP to prevent the lock in.

That midfield though. Rozee/Butters/Wines with JHF/Boak/SPP taking rotations. That is good and with an actual ruck they might be really good.

Fear level: backyard cricket. Christmas day. You haven't played since you were 14. Your little brother that you constantly beat up on as a kid has never stopped and is now 32. Dad is watching. You've had 5 beers before midday and the sweat is beading on you. He's talking s*. You are overweight and your kids hate you. Still class is eternal and you were always better. You can do this.

View attachment 1904010

Will they go Ratugolea vs Hawkins or Cameron?

If Hawkins, could he finally reach double figure goals in a match

 

[calder_daddy]

Port Adelaide:
Defensive end, Aliir is a gun and with Sav taking the big units we'll probably see Aliir start to hit some real Tom Stewart areas. BZT good for a bit of rebound too. On balance not heaps concerned given our weapons but who knows.

Their forwards are real tall. Kardinia is narrow. Adelaide oval not as narrow but still a bit. Two of their ground level guys here are not actually forwards, though Rioli is a gun. Their forward mix is the kind we can beat I think but we need to blanket SPP to prevent the lock in.

That midfield though. Rozee/Butters/Wines with JHF/Boak/SPP taking rotations. That is good and with an actual ruck they might be really good.

Fear level: backyard cricket. Christmas day. You haven't played since you were 14. Your little brother that you constantly beat up on as a kid has never stopped and is now 32. Dad is watching. You've had 5 beers before midday and the sweat is beading on you. He's talking s*. You are overweight and your kids hate you. Still class is eternal and you were always better. You can do this.

View attachment 1904010

If Francis Evans is there sub, they will struggle

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Will they go Ratugolea vs Hawkins or Cameron?

If Hawkins, could he finally reach double figure goals in a match

Definitely Hawkins I think. He will be praying for some defence played through the middle to keep him from setting records

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If Francis Evans is there sub, they will struggle

They are thin for smalls for sure

 

[CHAWKTS]

Hawthorn:
Defensively their b23 features Sicily and Cj who are both guns but outside of that I have nothing positive to say. Won't need many entries to put a score on here.

Offensively I would recommend adding Nick Watson to your SuperCoach because I don't know who else is kicking their goals.

That midfield though will cause a few headaches but it's young and inconsistent

Fear level: a Karen asking you if your product contains gluten. A bit confronting at times but can't really hurt you in any meaningful way

View attachment 1903475

No room for Cats first round pick Cooper?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

No room for Cats first round pick Cooper?

Long return from injury, I'm sure he'll be in Brownlow form next year

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Richmond:
Defensively Broad, Grimes, Rioli, Short are a great group of med/small defenders but if Gibcus doesn't come from the clouds they are a bit short on kpds. Our forwards are pretty great so doubt we lose it in our f50.

Forward line has Bolton and Baker, Lynch a gun but he may not get a run at it. Again, they have weapons but if Lynch is out they haven't got a great deal on the key forward department. Whether we lose in d50 is going to come down to speed of entry.

Midfield. Taranto/Hopper didn't get a great start but could just be like the start Cameron got with us. Nank is still important. Their depth from there robs other lines so they are thin. Strikes me as a low budget Dangerwood midfield with a better ruck. The midfield battle will drive the other outcomes. Break even and we win. Either sides availability is probably the determining factor.

Fear level: Redback spider. If you don't know its coming it could hurt you but prepare for it and there's nothing to fear.

 

[Vdubs]

Brilliant work.
Love your insights and analogies

 

[standupand]

This is gold! Thanks CTTF. My fave line so far: "like the rise of house prices the rise of Carlton is a failure of governance at every level.". Lol.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

St Kilda
Most footy fans couldn't recognise a photo of half these defenders. Wilkie goes alright and Howard is OK here and there. Don't think we have an issue here.

Forward line can hurt you, I think it's one with a lot of avenues to goal if our midfield falls over. Membrey, King, Butler and Higgins are all names you can't sleep on, and while there's no real superstars it's pretty balanced tall and small so hard to plan for.

Midfield feels like the cast of the expendables, some very solid B graders who you keep forgetting exist then get reminded of what you like about them when they're on screen but there's still no character development and you won't watch the sequel.

Fear level: MAGA republicans. You can't take them seriously but then there’s a chance they win the election and effectively end Western geopolitical power.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Sydney:
With backline availability now not driven by the shadiest neurologists money can buy, Sydney are going to have a bit to work with down back. I would rate them below our best forwards though.

Their forward line lacks good kpfs but Papley and Heeney are the types that kill us so this will be a problem

The midfield now featuring Adams and fed by Grundy with Gulden, Mills, Rowbottom, Warner. That is going to take some stopping.


Fear level: Fear of a rigged system. You're at an auction and bidding against a trust fund kid. You've barely saved a deposit and they're putting the rent up in the 2 bedroom flat housing your family of four. Still, you work hard and earn good money, you are successful in your career. But you know this kid is getting cash from his law partner parents. You fear looking your children in the eye and telling them dad is a failure despite having to work 10x harder than the guy you lost to.