Society/Culture The housing crisis. How is it fixed?

[peetoo]

High court challenge to Victoria’s ‘Airbnb tax’ cheered on by liberal shadow treasurer
Tomorrow will be sprucing lack of action on housing

Referenced the successful challenge to EV charge….which obviously will mean more tolls to pay for road maintenance

Will they challenge tolls?

 

[DangerousD]

High court challenge to Victoria’s ‘Airbnb tax’ cheered on by liberal shadow treasurer
Tomorrow will be sprucing lack of action on housing

Referenced the successful challenge to EV charge….which obviously will mean more tolls to pay for road maintenance

Will they challenge tolls?

You got to love the constant attack on housing affordability in the media and then the attack on house prices stagnating by the very same media.

 

[imtall]

China has too many houses. The opposite problem of australia.

We have built plenty of houses. On a per capita basis we build plenty of housing.

Land markets have been bid up spectacularly by traders/speculators. Most people rightly can't afford the crazy prices. However, this is nothing new, it follows an 18 year cycle. Phillip Anderson and Fred Harrison have published/written extensively on the topic going back years and decades.

The entire thing is going to collapse come late 2025/2026. As it did in 2007/08. 1990. 1972 and 1955.

It needn't be this way of course. But it is the way economies go when land markets are speculated on and rents are sought.

You buy the ticket, you take the ride.

 

[imtall]

You got to love the constant attack on housing affordability in the media and then the attack on house prices stagnating by the very same media.

They won't know hit them come 2026. House prices crashing 50%, Aussie banks insolvent having to be bailed out.

That is what we are staring down.

 

[Seeds]

We have built plenty of houses. On a per capita basis we build plenty of housing.

Land markets have been bid up spectacularly by traders/speculators. Most people rightly can't afford the crazy prices. However, this is nothing new, it follows an 18 year cycle. Phillip Anderson and Fred Harrison have published/written extensively on the topic going back years and decades.

The entire thing is going to collapse come late 2025/2026. As it did in 2007/08. 1990. 1972 and 1955.

It needn't be this way of course. But it is the way economies go when land markets are speculated on and rents are sought.

You buy the ticket, you take the ride.

Nothing collapsed in 2007/08. I was trying to buy a home then. There was no collapse. In other countries there was. But not australia.

 

[peetoo]

Nothing collapsed in 2007/08. I was trying to buy a home then. There was no collapse. In other countries there was. But not australia.

A lot of retirees went back to the UK then as the house transaction bought almost double the house un the UK as a few months earlier. Those thinking of doing it took the opportunity

2025-26 you reckon?

 

[Frank Grimes]

Nothing collapsed in 2007/08. I was trying to buy a home then. There was no collapse. In other countries there was. But not australia.

There was a reduction in house prices back then, but nothing that could be called a collapse (I think it fell by something like 10-15%).

Though during 2007/08 in the US it wasn't so much first home buyers who were buying houses at dirt cheap prices but more by investors (Blackstone).

What appears to happen during a crash/collapse is banks become very conservative to lend out money. This means there are less people with a loan to buy house house and more those who have capital to buy house without a loan (mostly investors and those with extraordinarily wealthy parents).

 

[HirdsTheWord]

We have built plenty of houses. On a per capita basis we build plenty of housing.

Land markets have been bid up spectacularly by traders/speculators. Most people rightly can't afford the crazy prices. However, this is nothing new, it follows an 18 year cycle. Phillip Anderson and Fred Harrison have published/written extensively on the topic going back years and decades.

The entire thing is going to collapse come late 2025/2026. As it did in 2007/08. 1990. 1972 and 1955.

It needn't be this way of course. But it is the way economies go when land markets are speculated on and rents are sought.

You buy the ticket, you take the ride.

oh god another Phillip Anderson 18-cycle year tin hat person. Nothing is a cycle if it doesn't happen at routine intervals. All Anderson has done, is divide all the bad economic things that occur over time and divide it over a time period to get 18 years.

The last 2 major economic events were GFC 2008 and COVID 2020. Thats a gap of 12 years, not 18 years. So dunno why you are stressed about 2026. Your good until the 2030's!

You are totally misusing the word collapse btw. Nothing has ever collapsed. It has reduced like most things do, but over the long term, it still goes up.

There are structural law and tax changes that can easily reduce Australia's house prices, but either both sides of government need to agree on it, or one of them needs to essentially convince voting homeowners that their homes will drop in value.

And considering the vast majority of voters are homeowners. Good luck with either of those.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

There was a reduction in house prices back then, but nothing that could be called a collapse (I think it fell by something like 10-15%).

Though during 2007/08 in the US it wasn't so much first home buyers who were buying houses at dirt cheap prices but more by investors (Blackstone).

What appears to happen during a crash/collapse is banks become very conservative to lend out money. This means there are less people with a loan to buy house house and more those who have capital to buy house without a loan (mostly investors and those with extraordinarily wealthy parents).

Andersons 18-year cycle is a complete crock of crap. All it is a bunch of shit economic events divided by the time length. it isn't even a cycle, it's just an average.

if you take the Gap between the two most recent major economic events the GFC and COVID it was a 12-years. So shouldn't the next cycle then be in the 2030's? lol its complete hogwash.

We literally just had a circa 15% downward correction in house prices in 2021/22, after it boomed in COVID 2020/21

Even BEFORE Covid

We had a significant a housing correction in 2017/2018/2019, and then again in 2020 when COVID broke out.




The housing market always goes up and down. Over the long term it generally always goes up though.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

They won't know hit them come 2026. House prices crashing 50%, Aussie banks insolvent having to be bailed out.

That is what we are staring down.

 

[imtall]

oh god another Phillip Anderson 18-cycle year tin hat person. Nothing is a cycle if it doesn't happen at routine intervals. All Anderson has done, is divide all the bad economic things that occur over time and divide it over a time period to get 18 years.

The last 2 major economic events were GFC 2008 and COVID 2020. Thats a gap of 12 years, not 18 years. So dunno why you are stressed about 2026. Your good until the 2030's!

You are totally misusing the word collapse btw. Nothing has ever collapsed. It has reduced like most things do, but over the long term, it still goes up.

There are structural law and tax changes that can easily reduce Australia's house prices, but either both sides of government need to agree on it, or one of them needs to essentially convince voting homeowners that their homes will drop in value.

And considering the vast majority of voters are homeowners. Good luck with either of those.

I'm not sure what I have posted that warrants multiple quoted posts and mocking photos.

All for saying I think housing is overvalued and primed for a significant correction?

I'm not stressed about 2026. I can't wait. Nothing we need more in this country then a housing crash and speculators being wiped out. This would allow us to get back to productive enterprise rather than focussing on trading houses between each other.

You buy the ticket. You take the ride.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

I'm not sure what I have posted that warrants multiple quoted posts and mocking photos.

All for saying I think housing is overvalued and primed for a significant correction?

I'm not stressed about 2026. I can't wait. Nothing we need more in this country then a housing crash and speculators being wiped out. This would allow us to get back to productive enterprise rather than focussing on trading houses between each other.

You buy the ticket. You take the ride.

You posted housing will crash 50%. Thats what warrants you being mocked. Not to mention you are referencing a joke of a theory being Andersons, adding to said mockery. Housing didn't crash 50% in the GFC nor during COVID, no event in history has caused Australian housing to crash 50%. What event in 2026 is going to make this occur? Everyone getting sick of Australia and leaving?

If Australian Housing ever collapsed by 50%, the economy itself would implode to nothing. You wouldn't be able to even buy whatever would even be left in that scenario.

The point was there was already 3 x significant housing corrections that have occurred over the last 9 years. and it has nothing to do with Anderson's garbage 18-year cycle theory.

Housing goes up and it goes down. But over the long term, it always goes up, because our Population goes up.

Buy what you can afford when you can afford it, then climb your way to the life you want through smart risk assessed investment.

Hoping to buy in a 50% drop will never happen, because a 50% drop will never happen.

"You buy the ticket, you take the ride" lol. Do you think you are Warren Buffet or something?

 

[imtall]

You posted housing will crash 50%. Thats what warrants you being mocked. Not to mention you are referencing a joke of a theory being Andersons, adding to said mockery. Housing didn't crash 50% in the GFC nor during COVID, no event in history has caused Australian housing to crash 50%. What event in 2026 is going to make this occur? Everyone getting sick of Australia and leaving?

If Australian Housing ever collapsed by 50%, the economy itself would implode to nothing. You wouldn't be able to even buy whatever would even be left in that scenario.

The point was there was already 3 x significant housing corrections that have occurred over the last 9 years. and it has nothing to do with Anderson's garbage 18-year cycle theory.

Housing goes up and it goes down. But over the long term, it always goes up, because our Population goes up.

Buy what you can afford when you can afford it, then climb your way to the life you want through smart risk assessed investment.

Hoping to buy in a 50% drop will never happen, because a 50% drop will never happen.

"You buy the ticket, you take the ride" lol. Do you think you are Warren Buffet or something?

Then you have nothing to worry about?

Housing has crashed 50% and more in many areas around the world, numerous times. In Australia, it has happened in individual markets in recent memory.

Just because an event hasn't happened, doesn't mean it won't.

Time will tell. Let's agree to disagree.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Then you have nothing to worry about?

Housing has crashed 50% and more in many areas around the world, numerous times. In Australia, it has happened in individual markets in recent memory.

Just because an event hasn't happened, doesn't mean it won't.

Time will tell. Let's agree to disagree.

i suppose i agree disagree, you do you lol

 

[imtall]

i suppose i agree disagree, you do you lol

You seem a bit nervous?

How dare someone call "bullshit" on Australia's property bubble.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

You seem a bit nervous?

How dare someone call "bullshit" on Australia's property bubble.

not nervous at all.

I just told you property has had significant corrections being 3 x times over the last 9 years. Each time circa 15% in values dropping, the recovering.

Housing Value will keep going up over the long term as our population goes up.

What you are suggesting being 50% and being based on Andersons 50% theory is just ludicrous. Unless this 2026 event you are talking about, is Thanos snapping his fingers and killing half Australia's population that is.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Its laughable that you all think they want to fix it. They all pretend they do but not one of them even has 1 tiny bit of interest in doing so. Even Bill Shortens only interest in all of this was to funnel property to his Chinese mates.

High house prices are with us from here to eternity. If you realise there is no other alternative you can plan your life accordingly

 

[imtall]

not nervous at all.

I just told you property has had significant corrections being 3 x times over the last 9 years. Each time circa 15% in values dropping, the recovering.

Housing Value will keep going up over the long term as our population goes up.

What you are suggesting being 50% and being based on Andersons 50% theory is just ludicrous. Unless this 2026 event you are talking about, is Thanos snapping his fingers and killing half Australia's population that is.

It is the economic law of rent.

People are pushed into speculating on land due to tax breaks. As rent increases, people have less to spend on productive enterprise as speculation takes over. Eventually this must lead to collapse. As history has shown.

The signs are already there. House prices appreciating 80 to 100% in a handful of years. Mortgage fraud etc.

It is all about to come to an abrupt end.

The absolute ferocity of your attack on me shows you are nervous.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Its laughable that you all think they want to fix it. They all pretend they do but not one of them even has 1 tiny bit of interest in doing so. Even Bill Shortens only interest in all of this was to funnel property to his Chinese mates.

High house prices are with us from here to eternity. If you realise there is no other alternative you can plan your life accordingly

The fundamental issue is that the majority of the voting base are homeowners. Governments have no chance of getting elected if they actively tell people they will lose value on their homes.

There are plenty of easy things that can be done to lower housing. The problem is convincing voters to vote for it.

2019 one of Labors key promises was adjustments to Negative gearing laws. They got smashed in the election.

2022 labor remove that promise, and they win.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

It is the economic law of rent.

People are pushed into speculating on land due to tax breaks. As rent increases, people have less to spend on productive enterprise as speculation takes over. Eventually this must lead to collapse. As history has shown.

The signs are already there. House prices appreciating 80 to 100% in a handful of years. Mortgage fraud etc.

It is all about to come to an abrupt end.

The absolute ferocity of your attack on me shows you are nervous.

3 sure things in life. Death, Taxes and someone calling for the collapse of the housing market that never occurs. You think you are the first?

 

[imtall]

3 sure things in life. Death, Taxes and someone calling for the collapse of the housing market that never occurs. You think you are the first?

Not at all.

Fred Harrison called the 2008 GFC back in 1997.

Buckle up

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The fundamental issue is that the majority of the voting base are homeowners. Governments have no chance of getting elected if they actively tell people they will lose value on their homes.

There are plenty of easy things that can be done to lower housing. The problem is convincing voters to vote for it.

Not just that The fundamental issue is the donors they serve are house owners and they themselves sit in parliament gathering up properties on there high wages

Good example is Fatima Payman who owns a house in Canberra which the taxpayer pays out to to her $2,170 per week in rent for her to live in it. She will pay that off before her term ends as the house cost 450,000.....

If thats the parliament you have, just flat out forget about it. Voters dont matter at all here when the people in charge of the system are the ones who benefit the most from it too

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Not at all.

Fred Harrison called the 2008 GFC back in 1997.

Buckle up

History hasnt been a friend to that call at all. I mean he was insanely wrong on that call. Not sure how in 2024 you could say otherwise

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Not just that The fundamental issue is the donors they serve are house owners and they themselves sit in parliament gathering up properties on there high wages

Good example is Fatima Payman who owns a house in Canberra which the taxpayer pays out to to her $2,170 per week in rent for her to live in it. She will pay that off before her term ends as the house cost 450,000.....

If thats the parliament you have, just flat out forget about it. Voters dont matter at all here when the people in charge of the system are the ones who benefit the most from it too

That is true.

Sitting members of parliament have something like 300m worth of investment properties.

BUT, still, voters simply do not want cheaper housing right now.

 

[HirdsTheWord]

Not at all.

Fred Harrison called the 2008 GFC back in 1997.

Buckle up

Australian Housing didn't collapse in the GFC. So who cares?