The Marvel Curse

[phantom13]

Not hard data.

Just based on general observations and logic like:

• The small population of Geelong and the huge population of Melbourne
• The historical movements between the areas would result in spread. As a theoretical example, if 70% of Geelong barracked for Geelong 50 years ago, and 30% of those people (and their descendants) have moved to Melbourne over the past 50 years, you'll have plenty of Geelong fans in Melbourne (in addition to the ones already there)
• The fact I personally know a lot of Geelong fans living in Melbourne
• The fact that Geelong people are more likely to commute to Melbourne for work, and thus more likely to be willing to travel to Melbourne. Compared to say, bayside Saints fans or Northern suburbs Roos fans comparable willingness to travel to Geelong for footy

I think with crowds there's a kind of cancelling out impact, in a sense. It's not a ratio thing.

St Kilda is a small club, as you would know, often our crowd is outdone by the opposing crowd. But I think if both teams have solid numbers in the venue, both fanbases will make noise when their team gets going, because many fans don't make any noise whatsoever- until their team fires. So you've got potential for great noise from both sides. My point about Geelong was, historically (and perhaps this will change with a bigger capacity stadium and more people coming from Melbourne) was they have a huge crowd advantage 8 or 9 times a year. Where 80 or 90% of the crowd's cheering them. Any other Melbourne club only gets that 4 or 5 times a year- when they host interstate clubs in Melbourne. So I consider that a significant advantage for Geelong during the Home and Away season.

And actually, data on Geelong bears out the fact they overachieve in Home & Away relative to finals. They've finished top 4 20 times in the past 35 years. But only 4 flags.

Every time Geelong wins the flag they're clearly the top team and heavy favourites heading into finals (2007, 2022) or one of the clear top 2 (2009, 2011). They also lost one where they were short-priced favourites (2008). And about 15 other times in my life, they've been one of the main contenders and failed to win.

This isn't a coincidence.

St Kilda hasn't won in Geelong since 1999. The Western Bulldogs won last year and it was their first win since 2003. Both St Kilda and Bulldogs have beaten Geelong plenty of times in Melbourne over those periods. When Dogs and Saints play Geelong in Melbourne, they simply don't have the same advantage the Cats have in Geelong, with both the crowd and the ground shape (KP being uniquely thin).

So I think Geelong has a significant advantage which inflates their Home and Away record probably by the order of 1 or 1.2 wins (on average) and 1 or 2 ladder positions each year. But when they lack that advantage during finals they get shown up.

And the Brisbane and Sydney thing, it's just based on personal observations that those teams often have decent support in Melbourne. Which isn't surprising since they originate from Melbourne clubs 28 and 43 years ago respectively, which is only a generation ago.

Appreciate the response but it looks alot like you are filling in gaps in the data with personal bias. For example Geelongs population is around 300k and their membership numbers about 80k. St.Kildas population is about 20k and our membership is about 60k. Now obviously we KNOW that a stack of our members dont live in St.Kilda but there really is no data to support that "half, if not most, of Geelong's fan base lives in Melbourne" They are a one team town. Id suggest that a vast majority of their members are Geelong based but that wouldnt suit your narrative.

I get what your saying and there is data that indicates your point but there is also data that doesnt (the saints have played more finals since being at Marvel than we did prior on a per capita basis).

Ultimately i think it looks alot like the #VICBIAS stuff (which ignores teams that arent Collingwood or Richmond).

In your other thread you also dismissed the travel for interstate based teams by saying US and Euro leagues travel alot (ignoring the difference that they ALL travel alot whereas for us Vic based teams dont).

Anecdotally many saints supporters have noted we have really good support in WA, no idea why and no real data to support it but i dont think were substantially more succesful there because we have 20% of the crowd in those games whereas others have 15%.

I think youve found that Marvel based teams are a bit shit and then gone to great lengths to prove its down to more than just those teams being a bit shit for this 20 year period.

I dont see it at all.

 

[PJays]

Appreciate the response but it looks alot like you are filling in gaps in the data with personal bias. For example Geelongs population is around 300k and their membership numbers about 80k. St.Kildas population is about 20k and our membership is about 60k. Now obviously we KNOW that a stack of our members dont live in St.Kilda but there really is no data to support that "half, if not most, of Geelong's fan base lives in Melbourne" They are a one team town. Id suggest that a vast majority of their members are Geelong based but that wouldnt suit your narrative.

I get what your saying and there is data that indicates your point but there is also data that doesnt (the saints have played more finals since being at Marvel than we did prior on a per capita basis).

Ultimately i think it looks alot like the #VICBIAS stuff (which ignores teams that arent Collingwood or Richmond).

In your other thread you also dismissed the travel for interstate based teams by saying US and Euro leagues travel alot (ignoring the difference that they ALL travel alot whereas for us Vic based teams dont).

Anecdotally many saints supporters have noted we have really good support in WA, no idea why and no real data to support it but i dont think were substantially more succesful there because we have 20% of the crowd in those games whereas others have 15%.

I think youve found that Marvel based teams are a bit s**t and then gone to great lengths to prove its down to more than just those teams being a bit s**t for this 20 year period.

I dont see it at all.

Fair points. I'll avoid the temptation to reply to each of them.

Except on travel I'd say yes, absolutely I disregard travel and I think it's ridiculous how much West Coast and Freo fans mention it. Historically, Perth teams do a long flight about 10 times in 23 or 24 weeks plus finals (There was a 22 round season for most of their history. 11 away games, 1 in Perth. So, 10 trips to Melb/Ade/Syd/Bris). I don't accept that it has much impact on their performance.

Just one more comment on Geelong crowds- here is hard data which may be more what you're looking for:

Geelong games at the MCG

If you analyse this data set of Geelong's games at the MCG:

• The last decade 2015 - 2024.
• Remove 2020 and 2021 due to covid
• Remove finals
• Geelong played 40 home & away games at the MCG. Average crowd right on 60,000 (59,942). There simply wouldn't be those numbers if Geelong was only getting 5,000 or 10,000 fans to those games. The sheer weight of the totals illustrates that Geelong has strong support when they play in Melbourne.

 

[Chief Hopper]

I think Marvel has been limiting for AFL clubs playing out of the venue for 3 reasons.

Financially. The AFL teams that play there generally could only can generate a smaller crowd at the MCG, so it made sense for them to use Marvel. Only thing is that the poor pay scale for the smaller clubs means they need to sell out the venue to make any sort of money back. Essendon makes money from ticket sales at a better rate so it makes financial sense that way. But for the other teams, not making as much money means the club can't spend more on itself to improve.

Poor turf. Early in the 2000s the venue had very poor grass and soil setup. I 100% blame that venue for causing a few injuries to teams that predominatenly played there in those early years. It had many patches of visable dirt around the field. Seemed to have been fixed around 2007 with lighting and heating fixes.

MCG is where finals are played. To be the best at Marvel will only get you so far as the teams playing out of there share any advantage. Alternatively Geelong has had it's narrow playing field home ground advantage, and gate receipts, for a long while now to it's benefit. Marvel can't replicate that.

Strengths of Marvel is that it can host other entertainment events. Is close to railway transport. Close to Docklands.
On the whole though that stadium has stunted, not grown, any AFL team playing from there.

 

[JackOutback]

Fair points. I'll avoid the temptation to reply to each of them.

Except on travel I'd say yes, absolutely I disregard travel and I think it's ridiculous how much West Coast and Freo fans mention it. Historically, Perth teams do a long flight about 10 times in 23 or 24 weeks plus finals (There was a 22 round season for most of their history. 11 away games, 1 in Perth. So, 10 trips to Melb/Ade/Syd/Bris). I don't accept that it has much impact on their performance.

Whether you accept it or not has not bearing on its validity.

 

[bzparkes]

Hmm, it's almost as if there's a HUGE advantage to being an MCG tenant, eh?

 

[PJays]

Whether you accept it or not has not bearing on its validity.

What demonstrates its validity?