The odds of us making finals this year

[verypoorboy]

These are the odds for each team I worked out using Sportsbet:

Carlton to make finals, they have easily the best chance because they are already sitting 8th and don't need to even win to make it:

To guarantee a finals birth
-Simply beat Port
Odds @2.14 or 46.7% of guaranteeing a finals berth on their own merits.

BUT......

If they lose by a point they need
-Pies to beat North @1.53
-Geelong to beat Brisbane @1.06
-West Coast to beat Adelaide or Adelaide to win by less than 60 points, therefore West Coast at the line with +59.5 @1.01

Overall odds @1.64 or 61% chance of playing finals even if they lose.

Otherwise if they lose other teams come into play:

North to make finals:
-Port need to beat Carlton @1.70
-Geelong need to beat Brisbane @1.06
-North need to beat Pies @2.50
Overall odds = @4.50 or 22.2%

Adelaide to make finals: Need to make up around 60ish points on Carlton (let's say 60 points for the sake of the example) so I'm gonna split it 30/30 over two games as Adelaide are unlikely to thrash West Coast by over 10 goals at Subi.
-Port beat Carlton at line -29.5 @3.60
-Adelaide beat West Coast at line -29.5 @4.00
-Geelong to beat Brisbane @1.06
-Pies to beat North @1.53
Overall odds = @23.35 or 4.25%

Brisbane to make finals:
-Port to beat Carlton @1.70
-Brisbane to beat Geelong @9.00
Overall odds = @15.30 or 6.54%

West Coast to make finals:
-Port to beat Carlton with line -39.5 @5.00
-Geelong to beat Brisbane @1.06
-Pies to beat North @1.53
-West Coast to beat Adelaide with line -99.5 @151.00
Overall odds = @1224.46 or 0.08% in otherwords James Hird has more of a chance of being the new boss of the AFL tomorrow than West Coast have of playing finals this year.

So in summary Carlton are firmly in the box seat to play finals in 2013.
If they lose the order in terms of probability is still:
Carlton 61%
North 22%
Brisbane 6.5%
Adelaide 4.3%
West Coast 0.1%

Note: This only adds up to around 94% rather than 100% due to this being Sportsbet odds therefore obviously % is loss to the house (Sportsbet)

This only leaves us with a 20% chance of finals...not feeling so sure now

 

[keeno 111]

22% chance of making finals is rather generous amount after this traumatic season. I'll take it!

 

[ThePezDispenser]

That's incorrect. I'm no stats guru, however as the games are not on at the same time, in fact a day apart, these odds mean nothing.

Come sunday we will either be a 0% chance or a ~40% chance.

Similar to the situation where if you had to choose beteeen 3 you have a 33.3% chance, if your first guess is wrong, then instead if a 50% chance you have a 66.666667% chance of guessing it right with your eecobd guess and you now have a 2 in 3 shot of picking the right one.

So no point speculating til at least the teams are released or more importantly until the carlton game is played.

 

[ThePezDispenser]

More importantly the lols to be had if we make it and play richmond in the first week at our home ground lol

 

[Orange Peanut]

verygoodpost verypoorboy. veryshitone thepezdispenser

 

[goalieboy82]

i like those odds.
timmy

 

[verypoorboy]

That's incorrect. I'm no stats guru, however as the games are not on at the same time, in fact a day apart, these odds mean nothing.

Come sunday we will either be a 0% chance or a ~40% chance.

Similar to the situation where if you had to choose beteeen 3 you have a 33.3% chance, if your first guess is wrong, then instead if a 50% chance you have a 66.666667% chance of guessing it right with your eecobd guess and you now have a 2 in 3 shot of picking the right one.

So no point speculating til at least the teams are released or more importantly until the carlton game is played.

You would be right if all teams in the competition were equal but they're not.
That's like saying Melbourne would have a 50% chance of beating Hawthorn in a given match because they are 1 of 2 teams playing the match......yep sure thing mate

 

[ThePezDispenser]

You would be right if all teams in the competition were equal but they're not.
That's like saying Melbourne would have a 50% chance of beating Hawthorn in a given match because they are 1 of 2 teams playing the match......yep sure thing mate

You've somehow completely mis-read what I posted...

 

[ThePezDispenser]

And where did I write our game was a 50/50?

My point is our game first relies on the outcome of others and our performance will be affected by those outcomes and also the team announced on friday.

 

[Wells Now Williams Fan]

That's incorrect. I'm no stats guru, however as the games are not on at the same time, in fact a day apart, these odds mean nothing.

Come sunday we will either be a 0% chance or a ~40% chance.

No, You are they one that's incorrect. VPB is 100% right as of this moment.

As for us to make it right now those odds of the Gee V Bris & Port v Carl have to be included as they
form part of the equation for us to make it.

Of course if come Sunday Geel & Port have won then the odds of us making it is the $2.50 which is the price we are V Coll.

If you take a Cox Plate/ Melb Cup double 10/1 into 10/1 before the Cox Plate you are still 100/1 to win that bet.
If your Cox Plate bet wins, Then you have 100/1 on whats really a 9/1 chance in Melb cup. That why the other games MUST be included as they are part of the equation today.

 

[Royal Flush]

Since June when we first thought our year was gone after Adelaide, we somehow have had chances to make it ours every week since then. The fact that we are still with a chance the final week after all those opportunities says we don't want it enough or don't believe we are worthy enough.
Personally the emotional year I have had following this club is such that right now I'm not fussed whether we Finnish 8 or 12. Both have their advantages

 

[ThePezDispenser]

No, You are they one that's incorrect. VPB is 100% right as of this moment.

As for us to make it right now those odds of the Gee V Bris & Port v Carl have to be included as they
form part of the equation for us to make it.

Of course if come Sunday Geel & Port have won then the odds of us making it is the $2.50 which is the price we are V Coll.

If you take a Cox Plate/ Melb Cup double 10/1 into 10/1 before the Cox Plate you are still 100/1 to win that bet.
If your Cox Plate bet wins, Then you have 100/1 on whats really a 9/1 chance in Melb cup. That why the other games MUST be included as they are part of the equation today.

Incorrect. Odds are halved for all doubles including the same horse.

And he's technically not 100% right as his calcs are based on a sportsbooks odds which accounts for their cut.

Anyhoo, like I said our performance and even our odds should fluctuate based on the results from saturday.

 

[Nevbuster]

That one point loss we had to Carlton.... Aaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhhhh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our odds would have been 100% if we won.... Aaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhh !!

 

[Only Forwards]

That one point loss we had to Carlton.... Aaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhhhh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our odds would have been 100% if we won.... Aaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhh !!

Do not go looking at the close losses it is only pain that you will find

 

[nicko74]

The 1 point loss to Adelaide hurts more! That game was as good as in the bag!

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

So you're saying there's a chance?

 

[verypoorboy]

So you're saying there's a chance?

There's a chance.

 

[True North]

The game is not at Etihad.

Bring on Spring training.

 

[Wells Now Williams Fan]

Incorrect. Odds are halved for all doubles including the same horse.

And he's technically not 100% right as his calcs are based on a sportsbooks odds which accounts for their cut.

Anyhoo, like I said our performance and even our odds should fluctuate based on the results from saturday.

I never said anything at all about the Cox Plate/Melb Cup was same horse in the double.

Gee buddy ( re - his sportsbet odds).... You find me a bookmaker in the world that doesn't bet 105% markets
atleast on every sport & I will show you a flying pig.

Betfair markets are 101% but then you lose between 2-5% commission. Sportsbet don't take (their cut) on any winnings after placing a bet. The fixed odds are fixed odds.

 

[Nevbuster]

Do not go looking at the close losses it is only pain that you will find

But that loss not only would have given us 4 points, but denied Carlton 4.. the pain.. arrrrrggghhhhh... one lousy point and we'd be in.... arrrrggghhh.. 2013.... the pain... arrrgghhhhh.

 

[Twinkletoes]

But that loss not only would have given us 4 points, but denied Carlton 4.. the pain.. arrrrrggghhhhh... one lousy point and we'd be in.... arrrrggghhh.. 2013.... the pain... arrrgghhhhh.

Don't do it to yourself Nev. Head/desk on repeat is all it'll do for you. Every time I see a newspaper article on us being the biggest threats outside the top 8 currently they seem to post the list of our close losses. One peek at the list and I'm ready to top myself!

We're still in it and, providing Saturday's results go our way, Sunday is a final for us. That alone was so unexpected, given how the year has panned out, and I can't wait to be heading to a game which means something!

 

[Harris Specter]

If not for us, I sincerely hope you guys get into finals over Carltank.

You guys have shown you can match it up with the league's best, just need the composure to finish off games. Good luck if you do make it, will be cheering you and Port on in the finals series.

 

[fuego]

If not for us, I sincerely hope you guys get into finals over Carltank.

You guys have shown you can match it up with the league's best, just need the composure to finish off games. Good luck if you do make it, will be cheering you and Port on in the finals series.

Thanks mate we like a few other teams don't deserve to be there, but if things pan out that way so be it, I just hope we can play 4 quarters without four of our top line players missing time will tell. If we can't and your team does hope you go a long way in to the finals.

 

[Black Diamond]

That's incorrect. I'm no stats guru, however as the games are not on at the same time, in fact a day apart, these odds mean nothing.

Come sunday we will either be a 0% chance or a ~40% chance.

Similar to the situation where if you had to choose beteeen 3 you have a 33.3% chance, if your first guess is wrong, then instead if a 50% chance you have a 66.666667% chance of guessing it right with your eecobd guess and you now have a 2 in 3 shot of picking the right one.

So no point speculating til at least the teams are released or more importantly until the carlton game is played.

I think you might be right. Remember that movie 21? There is a scene where the lecturer is doing some kind of probability problem on the chalk board with the main character and explains how the odds for future events change as other results become known.

 

[Event Horizon]

That one point loss we had to Carlton.... Aaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhhhh !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our odds would have been 100% if we won.... Aaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhh !!

Bloody Boomer and his late fumble