- May 23, 2012
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- Tottenham Hotspur, New Orleans Pels
Hello, and welcome to the 2024 playoffs. Or, judging from the general apathy of NBA fans since about February, possibly welcome back.
Here are your first round previews, complete with odds. Remember to post nicely and gamble responsibly - or maybe it's the other way around.
1. Boston Celtics (64-18) vs 8. Miami Heat (46-36)
Well this should be easy for Boston, it's only... wait it a minute, it's Miami? Uh oh.
Celtics fans could be forgiven for feeling a sense of existential dread. Twice in recent seasons (2020 & 2023) the Heat have knocked the Celtics off as the lower seed, while they went perilously close to repeating the feat a third time in the 2022 ECF. After winning 64 games, you'd think Boston had earned themselves a break this year.
The good news however is that Jimmy Butler, the biggest Celtic killer since Andrew Toney, has apparently done some damage to his knee. There's some conjecture about how bad the injury actually is, but I think we can all agree that it couldn't possibly be as bad as when Jimmy turned up for training camp looking like this.
Anyway, you'll be shocked to learn that as a team that won 64 games, the Celtics are outstanding offensively, outstanding defensively, and didn't suffer a single lull all season long. Well, unless you count somehow losing back to back games to the Hawks. Hmmm, perhaps it's better that the Heat won through the play-ins after all then.
Meanwhile the Heat had their seemingly bi-annual 'bleh' season where you'd swear that they're a borderline lottery team, rather than an alleged contender. The Kyle Lowry experiment reached its inevitable end, and the Josh Richardson reunion didn't work. On the plus side the Heat appear to have found some youth in the form of Jaquez and Jovic, so they'll inevitably put off properly rebuilding for the first time since probably 1989.
The Heat shouldn't win. They probably won't win. But...
Stats Stars: The Celtics had three guys averaging 20 or more, rare territory. Of course so did the mid-80s Sonics, so it doesn't necessarily mean much.
Did You Know? The Celtics led the league in threes made and attempted. Modern basketball, y'all. Neither of these teams foul much, except presumably when they play the Lakers, so expect a good clean game. If BigFooty events of the past are any guide, don't expect a good clean game in this thread tho.
Head to Head: 27/10 Heat 111 @ Celtics 119, 25/1 Celtics 143 @ Heat 110, 11/2 Celtics 110 @ Heat 106 (Celtics won 3-0)
Odds: Celtics $1.10, Heat $7.50, Derrick White and Jimmy Butler grace the cover of Best Hairstyles of 2023 magazine, $500
2. New York Knicks (50-32) vs 7. Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
Hands up if you had the Knicks as one of only two teams in the East to win 50 this season? Or had Philly gracing the play-ins? Yeah me neither, but then again there's not a lot in the Eastern Conference that makes sense.
It kinda figures that a weird conference would feature a first round series this batsh1t insane. How do you preview a series between a team which made a major mid-season trade and is sans one of their big pieces, vs a team that started the season with a Harden-sized headache, proceeded to lose The Franchise for a couple of months, only to end up here via the play-ins?
The Knicks went 13-15 over February and March after injuries hit. The Sixers fared even worse after Embiid went down, losing 22 of their next 32.
I guess what I'm saying is who the hell knows what to expect from this series. Thibs' history in the playoffs is mixed. Philly's playoff adventures during the Embiid era have been even more frustrating. Someone's got to win.
Stats stars: Embiid and Maxey are the first Sixers teammates to average 25 a game ever. Donte DiVincenzo hit the third most threes in the league.
Did you know? The Knicks are 20-3 when OG Anunoby has played this season, while the Sixers are 32-8 when they have Embiid in uniform.
Head to Head: 5/1 Knicks 128 @ Sixers 92, 22/2 Knicks 110 @ Sixers 96, Sixers 79 @ Knicks 73, Sixers 79 @ Knicks 106 (Knicks won 3-1)
Odds: Knicks $1.67, Sixers $2.25, Embiid stays healthy $4, Thibs and Nurse get into a brawl after scowling at one another $8.50
3. Milwaukee Bucks (49-33) vs 6. Indiana Pacers (47-35)
Well, the Bucks contrived to turn Giannis and Dame into 49 wins. That's actually impressive, in an incompetent way. Adrian Griffin was brought in to modernise the offence, and tanked the defence. Doc Rivers in turn got the tap to salvage the defence, and promptly cratered the offence. If Bring Back Budenholzer isn't an accredited fan group, it probably should be.
Meanwhile further south, the Pacers and Rick Carlisle managed to turn their less heralded roster into 47 wins and a first round matchup against a team who've been their bunnies of late. You know, the kind of heartwarming underdog story with a stroke of luck that the New Orleans Pelicans might have managed this season, if they weren't a bunch of sillies and forever cursed. Cough.
Anyway, speaking of luck, one G. Antetokounmpo seems likely to miss most, if not all of this series. Giannis' record of surviving awkward falls and healing quicker than expected is pretty good, but from the sounds of it the Bucks are going to have to go to plan B.
Offensively it might not harm them too much. A clearer pecking order and spacing around Dame should be enough to put up points, even with Doc running the show. Defensively though, I'm not sure how they'll manage chasing gold and blue shadows about.
Big Match-up: The obvious one is Dame/Haliburton, but Myles Turner and Brook Lopez pretty much perform the same function for their respective teams.
Did you know? The Bucks and Pacers haven't met in the playoffs since 2000 (underrated series). The Pacers haven't been past the first round since 2014.
Head to Head: 9/11 Bucks 124 @ Pacers 126, 7/12 Pacers 128 @ Bucks 119, 13/12 Pacers 126 @ Bucks 140, 1/1 Pacers 122 @ Bucks 113, 3/1 Bucks 130 @ Pacers 142 (Pacers won 4-1)
Odds: Pacers $1.85, Bucks $2, Lillard to hit at least one game winner $3.50, Thanasis to start in Giannis' place $25
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34) vs 5. Orlando Magic (47-35)
Just in case this is the playoff series you might have forgotten existed, the NBA has helpfully scheduled Game 1 to start at 3am Sunday morning. Hey these two have history - remember 2009? Suddenly I have this theme running through my head.
The Cavs had an incredibly fragmented season, starting 18-15, then going on a 17-1 streak, before finishing losing 18 of their final 31. Injuries played their part, but weirdly enough their hot streak coincided with Garland and Mobley's enforced absences. Defensively they're sound, but the offence often shudders to a halt when Mitchell is out, or cold.
The Magic, one of the feel good stories of the season, are cut much from the same cloth. They play a slow, deliberate style, and their best offence is usually a good defence. Unlike the Cavs though, the Magic tend to emphasise living in the paint, as they're one of the shakier outside shooting teams in the league.
These are two relatively young teams, who will probably need time to find an offensive system that produces in the playoffs. The good news is, one of them is guaranteed to go through. The bad news is, they'll inevitably cop the Celtics next.
Big Match Up: The Magic are probably strongest where the Cavs are weakest, at forward, and vice versa. Orlando may fancy their bench against Cleveland's.
Did you know? Franz Wagner is a great young player, but he somehow shot only 28% from three this season. Cleveland hasn't won a playoff series without LeBron since 1993 - probably before many of our posters were born.
Head to Head: 6/12, Magic 111 @ Cavs 121, 11/12 Cavs 94 @ Magic 104, 22/1 Magic 99 @ Cavs 126, 22/2 Cavs 109 @ Magic 116 (tied 2-2)
Odds: Cavs $1.52, Magic $2.60, Orlando's DJ to bust out this classic any time Paolo Banchero scores, $900. I live in hope.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs 8. New Orleans Pelicans (49-33)
The New Orleans Pelicans began their rebuild in 2019. The Oklahoma City Thunder began their own rebuild in 2020. I suspect the Thunder have been skipping steps, writing the answers to the test on their rulers, sleeping with half the NBA's executive office, and demand that they be demoted to the back of the line, forthwith.
This wasn't supposed to happen. The Thunder are two seasons removed from winning 22 and 24 games. They'd won that many by New Year's this season. They're the youngest team in the league. They still have 8 future first round draft picks from other teams, not to mention several first round swap rights and a bazillion second round picks still the cupboard. They won 57 games, top spot in a stacked Western Conference, and they're not even the finished article. What manner of sorcery is this?
Speaking of things that weren't supposed to happen, the Pels took a promising season and proceeded to lose their final six home games on the bounce, culminating in back to back shockers against the Lakers, before finally stopping the rot today against the Kings. Their reward - or punishment, more aptly - is a seven game series against the West's rising superpower, all without Zion, who injured his hamstring during possibly his best pro game, because Pels.
The Thunder don't make sense because they've defied the rules of basketball gravity. The Pels don't make sense because, despite finishing in the top half of the league in all four major offensive, and all major defensive categories, winning more road games than any other team, and having the benefit of probably the deepest roster in their lacklustre history, they still contrived to fall into the play-ins. Clown birds gonna clown bird, it would seem.
Expect this series to make sense though. The top seeded Thunder will be heavily favoured, and rightly so. The Pels only chance is their bench.
Big Match Up: Expect Dort to guard Ingram, and Herb to take SGA. I believe the Thunder will do better out of those exchanges, based on experience.
Did You Know? These two have never met in the playoffs before, and that includes previous Hornets and Sonics incarnations. Probably to the relief of NBA head office staff everywhere. They did however share a team back in 2006 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
Head to Head: 1/11 Pels 110 @ Thunder 106, 26/1 Thunder 107 @ Pels 83, 26/3 Thunder 119 @ Pels 112 (Thunder won 2-1)
Odds: Thunder $1.30, Pelicans $3.70, Odds viewers will know OKC's coach's name $22, Odds they will be able to pronounce his name $88
2. Denver Nuggets (57-25) vs 7. Los Angeles Lakers (47-35)
Having saved the NBA from an ESPN sponsored circlejerk last season, now the poor Nuggets will be asked to repeat the trick this year. It's a good thing that Nikola Jokic is good at basketball.
Denver cruised to the equal-best record in the West without ever really looking like they got out of second gear. In fact they should have had the best record outright, but inexplicably slipped up against the Spurs in their penultimate game. Perhaps they foresaw the Lakers finishing 7th and decided to take one for the team?
Meanwhile the Lakers dominated the NBA coast to coast in impressive fashion, dwarfing their rivals. Oh sorry, I was just looking at free throw differentials. The Lakers actually started kinda slow, like last season, then finished strong, like last season. And they shot a lot of free throws, like last season.
Anyway, you probably know all the stuff here. The Nuggets have a superb starting five, and a bench that reminds us that some benches should stay on the bench - Thibs likes this. The Lakers have stars, storylines and a magic armour that makes them impervious to getting called for fouls. What's not to love?
Big Match Up: It's hard to look away from the paint with these two, but Jamal Murray burned the Lakers last year. LA often have a problem with quick guards, witness the Kings and DeAaron Fox sweeping them in the regular season.
Did You Know? The Nuggets equaled their best NBA season record this year (2012/13). The Lakers ranked dead last in the league for offensive rebounding, probably partly by design.
Head to Head: 24/10 Lakers 107 @ Nuggets 119, 8/2 Nuggets 114 @ Lakers 106, 2/3 Nuggets 124 @ Lakers 116, (Nuggets won 3-0)
Odds: Nuggets $1.35, Lakers $3.30, Foul count will be mentioned in this thread, possibly by me $1.05, Adam Silver to guest referee $5.50
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) vs 6. Phoenix Suns (49-33)
If winning 56 games and still only finishing third in your division isn't the most Minnesota thing ever, I don't know what is. Well sliding to third and then copping the team who swept you first up is probably even more Wolves-y, now that I think about it.
The Pups actually held the conference top spot for the majority of the season - it probably wasn't surprising that it was snatched away from them at the last minute, although it was surprising that it was the Thunder who took advantage. Nevertheless the Wolves were big and they were mean in 2023/24, something that hasn't been said since Kevin Garnett was in his prime. They finished with the league's top defence, and by a considerable margin. Offensively they were kinda 'meh' - it's not that they do anything terribly, other than the occasional 'your turn, my turn' between Ant and KAT, but the defence is where it's at with Minny.
On the other side, the Suns continued their weird metamorphosis from Cinderella side to star-driven big ticket show with a suitably weird season. They actually dipped below .500 around Christmas, but salvaged their season by making light work of a brutal finishing stretch. Grayson Allen had an underrated year, Royce O'Neale proved to be an important mid-season addition, and Brad Beal finally found his shot as the season went on.
All in all, this'll probably become a test of whether Minny's miserly defence can hold up against Phoenix's scorching shooting. Actually, it might be a test of Rudy Gobert and the interior D more than anything. Despite their outside shooting power, the Suns actually led the league in free throw rate. On he other side, the Suns struggle when Nurkic sits, so it'll be incumbent upon the Wolves to get him in foul trouble as often as possible. Given Nurk led the league in personal fouls, that shouldn't be too difficult.
Big Match Up: It'll actually be interesting to see whether Edwards and Booker go head to head, or if the Wolves swap with McDaniels.
Did You Know? The Suns and Wolves have never met previously in the playoffs. I blame Kahn.
Head to Head: 15/11 Wolves 115 @ Suns 133, 5/4 Wolves 87 @ Suns 97, 14/4 Suns 125 @ Wolves 106 (Suns win 3-0)
Odds: Wolves $1.85, Suns $2, Durant to join Wolves if the Suns lose $5, Jaden McDaniels to go on the injury list after punching Glen Taylor $18
4. Los Angeles Clippers (51-31) vs 5. Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
Anyone getting deja vu? For the third time in five years, it's the Clips and the Mavs squaring off in the first round. Well, at least if those series were any guide, it should be one of the more competitive series.
The Clips, like many of the NBA's upper middle, had a decidedly mixed season. They sank below .500 while adjusting after the Harden trade, then reeled off 26 of their next 31, before going right back to playing .500 ball after the all-star break. Sometimes the old man's club looked like world-beaters, at other times they looked like they'd be lucky to qualify for the play-ins. The offensive firepower is there though, and that's never a bad thing.
Meanwhile the Mavs - and you may be sensing something of a theme here - were meandering along at a barely .500 level before a couple of mid-season trades turned their season around. They went on their own hot streak, taking 16 of 18 games over March and April to steal the division crown and a playoff spot off the most cursed team in basketball, the Pelicans. The offence has seldom been a problem in Dallas, but the additions of Gafford and PJ Washington, in addition to surprisingly solid seasons from Derrick Jones and good ol Dante Exum have given the Mavs a much needed jolt of athleticism, and defence.
4 vs 5 is often hard to pick, but there are two guys in this series who based on past performances are almost guaranteed to perform, and that's Kawhi and Doncic. Both those guys averaged north of 30ppg in the 2020 and 2021 series. Given there are question marks over Kawhi's availability, I'd be leaning towards the Mavs here.
Stats stars: Luke finished 1st in the league scoring and 2nd in assists - that's rare, to say the least. Not surprisingly, he also led the league in usage. Norm Powell poured in 14ppg on nearly 63% TS%, and probably should be in contention for 6MOTY.
Did you know? The Mavs are 18-3 when Gafford starts. The Clippers haven't ever reached the Conference Finals in their 54 year history. Neither have my Pels, but we won't mention that. Given the Clippers stunk for 80% of that time, perhaps it's not that surprising.
Head to Head: 10/11 Clips 126 @ Mavs 144, 25/11, Mavs 88 @ Clips 107, 20/12, Clips 120 @ Mavs 111, (Clips won 2-1)
Odds: Mavericks $1.85, Clippers $2, Kyrie and Harden to embrace and bury the hatchet in a nice, mature manner $88
Happy playoffs everyone.
Here are your first round previews, complete with odds. Remember to post nicely and gamble responsibly - or maybe it's the other way around.
1. Boston Celtics (64-18) vs 8. Miami Heat (46-36)
Well this should be easy for Boston, it's only... wait it a minute, it's Miami? Uh oh.
Celtics fans could be forgiven for feeling a sense of existential dread. Twice in recent seasons (2020 & 2023) the Heat have knocked the Celtics off as the lower seed, while they went perilously close to repeating the feat a third time in the 2022 ECF. After winning 64 games, you'd think Boston had earned themselves a break this year.
The good news however is that Jimmy Butler, the biggest Celtic killer since Andrew Toney, has apparently done some damage to his knee. There's some conjecture about how bad the injury actually is, but I think we can all agree that it couldn't possibly be as bad as when Jimmy turned up for training camp looking like this.
Anyway, you'll be shocked to learn that as a team that won 64 games, the Celtics are outstanding offensively, outstanding defensively, and didn't suffer a single lull all season long. Well, unless you count somehow losing back to back games to the Hawks. Hmmm, perhaps it's better that the Heat won through the play-ins after all then.
Meanwhile the Heat had their seemingly bi-annual 'bleh' season where you'd swear that they're a borderline lottery team, rather than an alleged contender. The Kyle Lowry experiment reached its inevitable end, and the Josh Richardson reunion didn't work. On the plus side the Heat appear to have found some youth in the form of Jaquez and Jovic, so they'll inevitably put off properly rebuilding for the first time since probably 1989.
The Heat shouldn't win. They probably won't win. But...
Stats Stars: The Celtics had three guys averaging 20 or more, rare territory. Of course so did the mid-80s Sonics, so it doesn't necessarily mean much.
Did You Know? The Celtics led the league in threes made and attempted. Modern basketball, y'all. Neither of these teams foul much, except presumably when they play the Lakers, so expect a good clean game. If BigFooty events of the past are any guide, don't expect a good clean game in this thread tho.
Head to Head: 27/10 Heat 111 @ Celtics 119, 25/1 Celtics 143 @ Heat 110, 11/2 Celtics 110 @ Heat 106 (Celtics won 3-0)
Odds: Celtics $1.10, Heat $7.50, Derrick White and Jimmy Butler grace the cover of Best Hairstyles of 2023 magazine, $500
2. New York Knicks (50-32) vs 7. Philadelphia 76ers (47-35)
Hands up if you had the Knicks as one of only two teams in the East to win 50 this season? Or had Philly gracing the play-ins? Yeah me neither, but then again there's not a lot in the Eastern Conference that makes sense.
It kinda figures that a weird conference would feature a first round series this batsh1t insane. How do you preview a series between a team which made a major mid-season trade and is sans one of their big pieces, vs a team that started the season with a Harden-sized headache, proceeded to lose The Franchise for a couple of months, only to end up here via the play-ins?
The Knicks went 13-15 over February and March after injuries hit. The Sixers fared even worse after Embiid went down, losing 22 of their next 32.
I guess what I'm saying is who the hell knows what to expect from this series. Thibs' history in the playoffs is mixed. Philly's playoff adventures during the Embiid era have been even more frustrating. Someone's got to win.
Stats stars: Embiid and Maxey are the first Sixers teammates to average 25 a game ever. Donte DiVincenzo hit the third most threes in the league.
Did you know? The Knicks are 20-3 when OG Anunoby has played this season, while the Sixers are 32-8 when they have Embiid in uniform.
Head to Head: 5/1 Knicks 128 @ Sixers 92, 22/2 Knicks 110 @ Sixers 96, Sixers 79 @ Knicks 73, Sixers 79 @ Knicks 106 (Knicks won 3-1)
Odds: Knicks $1.67, Sixers $2.25, Embiid stays healthy $4, Thibs and Nurse get into a brawl after scowling at one another $8.50
3. Milwaukee Bucks (49-33) vs 6. Indiana Pacers (47-35)
Well, the Bucks contrived to turn Giannis and Dame into 49 wins. That's actually impressive, in an incompetent way. Adrian Griffin was brought in to modernise the offence, and tanked the defence. Doc Rivers in turn got the tap to salvage the defence, and promptly cratered the offence. If Bring Back Budenholzer isn't an accredited fan group, it probably should be.
Meanwhile further south, the Pacers and Rick Carlisle managed to turn their less heralded roster into 47 wins and a first round matchup against a team who've been their bunnies of late. You know, the kind of heartwarming underdog story with a stroke of luck that the New Orleans Pelicans might have managed this season, if they weren't a bunch of sillies and forever cursed. Cough.
Anyway, speaking of luck, one G. Antetokounmpo seems likely to miss most, if not all of this series. Giannis' record of surviving awkward falls and healing quicker than expected is pretty good, but from the sounds of it the Bucks are going to have to go to plan B.
Offensively it might not harm them too much. A clearer pecking order and spacing around Dame should be enough to put up points, even with Doc running the show. Defensively though, I'm not sure how they'll manage chasing gold and blue shadows about.
Big Match-up: The obvious one is Dame/Haliburton, but Myles Turner and Brook Lopez pretty much perform the same function for their respective teams.
Did you know? The Bucks and Pacers haven't met in the playoffs since 2000 (underrated series). The Pacers haven't been past the first round since 2014.
Head to Head: 9/11 Bucks 124 @ Pacers 126, 7/12 Pacers 128 @ Bucks 119, 13/12 Pacers 126 @ Bucks 140, 1/1 Pacers 122 @ Bucks 113, 3/1 Bucks 130 @ Pacers 142 (Pacers won 4-1)
Odds: Pacers $1.85, Bucks $2, Lillard to hit at least one game winner $3.50, Thanasis to start in Giannis' place $25
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (48-34) vs 5. Orlando Magic (47-35)
Just in case this is the playoff series you might have forgotten existed, the NBA has helpfully scheduled Game 1 to start at 3am Sunday morning. Hey these two have history - remember 2009? Suddenly I have this theme running through my head.
The Cavs had an incredibly fragmented season, starting 18-15, then going on a 17-1 streak, before finishing losing 18 of their final 31. Injuries played their part, but weirdly enough their hot streak coincided with Garland and Mobley's enforced absences. Defensively they're sound, but the offence often shudders to a halt when Mitchell is out, or cold.
The Magic, one of the feel good stories of the season, are cut much from the same cloth. They play a slow, deliberate style, and their best offence is usually a good defence. Unlike the Cavs though, the Magic tend to emphasise living in the paint, as they're one of the shakier outside shooting teams in the league.
These are two relatively young teams, who will probably need time to find an offensive system that produces in the playoffs. The good news is, one of them is guaranteed to go through. The bad news is, they'll inevitably cop the Celtics next.
Big Match Up: The Magic are probably strongest where the Cavs are weakest, at forward, and vice versa. Orlando may fancy their bench against Cleveland's.
Did you know? Franz Wagner is a great young player, but he somehow shot only 28% from three this season. Cleveland hasn't won a playoff series without LeBron since 1993 - probably before many of our posters were born.
Head to Head: 6/12, Magic 111 @ Cavs 121, 11/12 Cavs 94 @ Magic 104, 22/1 Magic 99 @ Cavs 126, 22/2 Cavs 109 @ Magic 116 (tied 2-2)
Odds: Cavs $1.52, Magic $2.60, Orlando's DJ to bust out this classic any time Paolo Banchero scores, $900. I live in hope.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25) vs 8. New Orleans Pelicans (49-33)
The New Orleans Pelicans began their rebuild in 2019. The Oklahoma City Thunder began their own rebuild in 2020. I suspect the Thunder have been skipping steps, writing the answers to the test on their rulers, sleeping with half the NBA's executive office, and demand that they be demoted to the back of the line, forthwith.
This wasn't supposed to happen. The Thunder are two seasons removed from winning 22 and 24 games. They'd won that many by New Year's this season. They're the youngest team in the league. They still have 8 future first round draft picks from other teams, not to mention several first round swap rights and a bazillion second round picks still the cupboard. They won 57 games, top spot in a stacked Western Conference, and they're not even the finished article. What manner of sorcery is this?
Speaking of things that weren't supposed to happen, the Pels took a promising season and proceeded to lose their final six home games on the bounce, culminating in back to back shockers against the Lakers, before finally stopping the rot today against the Kings. Their reward - or punishment, more aptly - is a seven game series against the West's rising superpower, all without Zion, who injured his hamstring during possibly his best pro game, because Pels.
The Thunder don't make sense because they've defied the rules of basketball gravity. The Pels don't make sense because, despite finishing in the top half of the league in all four major offensive, and all major defensive categories, winning more road games than any other team, and having the benefit of probably the deepest roster in their lacklustre history, they still contrived to fall into the play-ins. Clown birds gonna clown bird, it would seem.
Expect this series to make sense though. The top seeded Thunder will be heavily favoured, and rightly so. The Pels only chance is their bench.
Big Match Up: Expect Dort to guard Ingram, and Herb to take SGA. I believe the Thunder will do better out of those exchanges, based on experience.
Did You Know? These two have never met in the playoffs before, and that includes previous Hornets and Sonics incarnations. Probably to the relief of NBA head office staff everywhere. They did however share a team back in 2006 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
Head to Head: 1/11 Pels 110 @ Thunder 106, 26/1 Thunder 107 @ Pels 83, 26/3 Thunder 119 @ Pels 112 (Thunder won 2-1)
Odds: Thunder $1.30, Pelicans $3.70, Odds viewers will know OKC's coach's name $22, Odds they will be able to pronounce his name $88
2. Denver Nuggets (57-25) vs 7. Los Angeles Lakers (47-35)
Having saved the NBA from an ESPN sponsored circlejerk last season, now the poor Nuggets will be asked to repeat the trick this year. It's a good thing that Nikola Jokic is good at basketball.
Denver cruised to the equal-best record in the West without ever really looking like they got out of second gear. In fact they should have had the best record outright, but inexplicably slipped up against the Spurs in their penultimate game. Perhaps they foresaw the Lakers finishing 7th and decided to take one for the team?
Meanwhile the Lakers dominated the NBA coast to coast in impressive fashion, dwarfing their rivals. Oh sorry, I was just looking at free throw differentials. The Lakers actually started kinda slow, like last season, then finished strong, like last season. And they shot a lot of free throws, like last season.
Anyway, you probably know all the stuff here. The Nuggets have a superb starting five, and a bench that reminds us that some benches should stay on the bench - Thibs likes this. The Lakers have stars, storylines and a magic armour that makes them impervious to getting called for fouls. What's not to love?
Big Match Up: It's hard to look away from the paint with these two, but Jamal Murray burned the Lakers last year. LA often have a problem with quick guards, witness the Kings and DeAaron Fox sweeping them in the regular season.
Did You Know? The Nuggets equaled their best NBA season record this year (2012/13). The Lakers ranked dead last in the league for offensive rebounding, probably partly by design.
Head to Head: 24/10 Lakers 107 @ Nuggets 119, 8/2 Nuggets 114 @ Lakers 106, 2/3 Nuggets 124 @ Lakers 116, (Nuggets won 3-0)
Odds: Nuggets $1.35, Lakers $3.30, Foul count will be mentioned in this thread, possibly by me $1.05, Adam Silver to guest referee $5.50
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) vs 6. Phoenix Suns (49-33)
If winning 56 games and still only finishing third in your division isn't the most Minnesota thing ever, I don't know what is. Well sliding to third and then copping the team who swept you first up is probably even more Wolves-y, now that I think about it.
The Pups actually held the conference top spot for the majority of the season - it probably wasn't surprising that it was snatched away from them at the last minute, although it was surprising that it was the Thunder who took advantage. Nevertheless the Wolves were big and they were mean in 2023/24, something that hasn't been said since Kevin Garnett was in his prime. They finished with the league's top defence, and by a considerable margin. Offensively they were kinda 'meh' - it's not that they do anything terribly, other than the occasional 'your turn, my turn' between Ant and KAT, but the defence is where it's at with Minny.
On the other side, the Suns continued their weird metamorphosis from Cinderella side to star-driven big ticket show with a suitably weird season. They actually dipped below .500 around Christmas, but salvaged their season by making light work of a brutal finishing stretch. Grayson Allen had an underrated year, Royce O'Neale proved to be an important mid-season addition, and Brad Beal finally found his shot as the season went on.
All in all, this'll probably become a test of whether Minny's miserly defence can hold up against Phoenix's scorching shooting. Actually, it might be a test of Rudy Gobert and the interior D more than anything. Despite their outside shooting power, the Suns actually led the league in free throw rate. On he other side, the Suns struggle when Nurkic sits, so it'll be incumbent upon the Wolves to get him in foul trouble as often as possible. Given Nurk led the league in personal fouls, that shouldn't be too difficult.
Big Match Up: It'll actually be interesting to see whether Edwards and Booker go head to head, or if the Wolves swap with McDaniels.
Did You Know? The Suns and Wolves have never met previously in the playoffs. I blame Kahn.
Head to Head: 15/11 Wolves 115 @ Suns 133, 5/4 Wolves 87 @ Suns 97, 14/4 Suns 125 @ Wolves 106 (Suns win 3-0)
Odds: Wolves $1.85, Suns $2, Durant to join Wolves if the Suns lose $5, Jaden McDaniels to go on the injury list after punching Glen Taylor $18
4. Los Angeles Clippers (51-31) vs 5. Dallas Mavericks (50-32)
Anyone getting deja vu? For the third time in five years, it's the Clips and the Mavs squaring off in the first round. Well, at least if those series were any guide, it should be one of the more competitive series.
The Clips, like many of the NBA's upper middle, had a decidedly mixed season. They sank below .500 while adjusting after the Harden trade, then reeled off 26 of their next 31, before going right back to playing .500 ball after the all-star break. Sometimes the old man's club looked like world-beaters, at other times they looked like they'd be lucky to qualify for the play-ins. The offensive firepower is there though, and that's never a bad thing.
Meanwhile the Mavs - and you may be sensing something of a theme here - were meandering along at a barely .500 level before a couple of mid-season trades turned their season around. They went on their own hot streak, taking 16 of 18 games over March and April to steal the division crown and a playoff spot off the most cursed team in basketball, the Pelicans. The offence has seldom been a problem in Dallas, but the additions of Gafford and PJ Washington, in addition to surprisingly solid seasons from Derrick Jones and good ol Dante Exum have given the Mavs a much needed jolt of athleticism, and defence.
4 vs 5 is often hard to pick, but there are two guys in this series who based on past performances are almost guaranteed to perform, and that's Kawhi and Doncic. Both those guys averaged north of 30ppg in the 2020 and 2021 series. Given there are question marks over Kawhi's availability, I'd be leaning towards the Mavs here.
Stats stars: Luke finished 1st in the league scoring and 2nd in assists - that's rare, to say the least. Not surprisingly, he also led the league in usage. Norm Powell poured in 14ppg on nearly 63% TS%, and probably should be in contention for 6MOTY.
Did you know? The Mavs are 18-3 when Gafford starts. The Clippers haven't ever reached the Conference Finals in their 54 year history. Neither have my Pels, but we won't mention that. Given the Clippers stunk for 80% of that time, perhaps it's not that surprising.
Head to Head: 10/11 Clips 126 @ Mavs 144, 25/11, Mavs 88 @ Clips 107, 20/12, Clips 120 @ Mavs 111, (Clips won 2-1)
Odds: Mavericks $1.85, Clippers $2, Kyrie and Harden to embrace and bury the hatchet in a nice, mature manner $88
Happy playoffs everyone.
Brunson on the floor head slightly raised waiting waiting waiting for team mates to help him up. Couldn’t gotten up in that time
