So a couple of weeks ago at the start of Covid-19 lock-downs, I thought I would try and show that Tasmania deserved an AFL team. Because they get good crowd turnouts based on their population size, and they currently don't have a sports team in all of the major competitions.
The thinking was, the AFL should get a team there, before a smaller sports competition gets a team established there which would suck out any latent demand for attending a sports event, that a future AFL team would never be able to establish itself in Tasmania.
However, after collating all of the data, it mostly leaves me in astonishment of the behemoth that is AFL in Melbourne, which can not really be compared to any other sport in any other City in Australia, in terms of how many people attend on a regular basis.
I put all of the data into graphs to make it easier to comprehend. There are some notes to the data, which I put with the graphs. And at the bottom are links to the data sources. It was a little bit disappointing how poor some of the sports crowd records are.
Anyway, the following two graphs should be self evident. The first shows the population of Australia's largest 21 Cities. Why 21, because that gets us down to Launceston. Also Central Coast (Gosford area) has been separated from Sydney. The second is the Average Attendance for the top 15 sports leagues. It is important to note that the State AFL tally comprises the SANFL, WAFL, VFL, TFL and NEAFL as one, whilst State NRL is the two comps in NSW and Queensland.
As you can see, Melbourne and Sydney stand out as the largest Cities, and after Adelaide, each of the other City sizes appear insignificant in comparison. In terms of the Sports League, no other sport really gets an average crowd near that of the AFL.
The next two graphs, show what the total attendance was to matches in each City, and breaks it down by colour to the individual sport. The cross also shows the total number of matches played there. The right hand graph, simply zooms in and cuts off the top of the table so you can get a better look at the smaller Cities and the smaller sports.
These next two graphs are similar to the previous two, but show what the total attendance was to matches for each Sport, and breaks it down by colour to the individual City. So just flips the previous graph. The cross also shows the total number of matches played there. The right hand graph, simply zooms in and cuts off the top of the table so you can get a better look at the smaller Cities and the smaller sports. Clearly AFL in Melbourne gets some massive total attendance over a season compared to anything else. The next closest are NRL in Sydney, AFL in Perth and AFL in Adelaide.
However, total attendance is not fair to compare Tasmania's ability to support an AFL team, as Melbourne has 88 AFL games in a season, where some supporters might attend up to 16 games in a season (both home and away). This exaggerates the sort of supporter levels there are, when in Launceston they only get 4 AFL games a season. So instead, if we look at how many people might attend a sports match per home team, some of those smaller Cities start to become a bit more comparable. So these graphs are derived by adding together the average attendance for each team that might play in that City. So for Melbourne it is the 9 AFL teams, plus the 2 BBL teams, plus the NRL team, plus the 2 NBL teams, plus 14 VFL teams etc, but only for the crowd attendance in that City. So Hawthorn games play in Launceston count towards Launceston and not Melbourne etc. In these examples the number of teams are shown by the red cross.
For the Cities above, and the Sports below, we still get very similar outcomes as the Total Attendance. However now a lot of the smaller Cities become a bit more evident when you look at their individual match attendances (since they often only get 1 to 4 season matches, so their total attendance is so much smaller compared to the Cities with 11 season matches). The number of teams in shown by the red crosses for each sport, will equal more than the number of teams per competition, due to some teams playing home games in multiple Cities.
So what has all this data been culminating towards. The Weekly Attendance Ratio. This is, how many people in the population attend the matches. The bars are for all 21 Cities combined, where as each of the shapes are the Cities and the Sports individually. Here you want a lower number, as it means you have a higher attendance rate. Such as Launceston has 1 in 2.8 in the population attend a sporting match per Home Team. Whereas in Melbourne on average 1 in 11,939 people attend an Australian Baseball League match. You will see Toowoomba and Albury did not have any matches of any sort from these 15 leagues... Perhaps there is some potential there for a smaller competition to jump in there with some games.
The big thing you will notice is that generally, the smaller the City, the better the attendance rate is at the sports match. There are some outliers here and there, but that is the general trend.
So just to try and make the above two sets of data a bit more easier to read, in the follow two graphs, I've removed all of the irrelevant Cities and the smaller sports. It really does show Melbourne as standing out. But also that the attendance rate in Launceston is really impressive, Hobart not so much. But imagine what they might do with their own team and not with the two fly-in fly-out teams that they have. But the AFL will have to get in quick before A-League or the NBL put a team down there, otherwise it is not likely another sport could survive there. Because for any City smaller than Canberra they don't seem to be able to host two teams. Just like AFL in Geelong, NRL in Townsville, NBL in Cairns, Wollongong sharing both an NRL and NBL team with Sydney.
Edit: I made an edit to remove Netball from the last graph, as I remembered the data source was flawed, and the last graph only included sports with accurate data.
Population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Australia_by_population
Australian Football League: https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2019.html
AFLW: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_AFL_Women's_season
Rugby League: https://afltables.com/rl/crowds/2019.html
Big Bash League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Big_Bash_League_season
Womens Big Bash League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018–19_Women's_Big_Bash_League_season
Super Rugby: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Super_Rugby_season#Attendances & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2019_Super_Rugby_matches & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Global_Rapid_Rugby_season
National Rugby Championship: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_National_Rugby_Championship
A-League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_A-League#Results
W-League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_W-League
National Basketball League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_NBL_regular_season
Womens National Basketball League: https://www.smh.com.au/sport/basket...-remains-on-shaky-ground-20190216-p50y8q.html & https://www.smh.com.au/sport/basketball/canberra-capitals-shatter-crowd-records-20190121-p50sn3.html & https://thewest.com.au/sport/basketball/basketball-fans-rally-behind-perth-lynx-ng-b881352079z & https://www.dropbox.com/s/l3bl5iz9ejmpvrr/Annual Report 2019.pdf?dl=0
Super Netball: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Suncorp_Super_Netball_season
Australian Baseball League: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?y=2018&sid=milb&t=l_att&lid=595
State NRL: https://www.nswrl.com.au/draw/?competition=113&season=2019&round=1 & https://www.qrl.com.au/draw/?competition=114&season=2019&round=1
State AFL: https://australianfootball.com/leag...all&club1=All&club2=All&ground=All&limit=1000 & http://www.waflfootyfacts.net/season/attendances.php?Season=2019 & https://australianfootball.com/seasons/season/vfl/126/premiership+season/9/9/2019/basic & https://australianfootball.com/seasons/season/tsl/122/premiership+season/6/6/2019/basic & https://australianfootball.com/seasons/season/neafl/140/premiership+season/2/2/2019
The thinking was, the AFL should get a team there, before a smaller sports competition gets a team established there which would suck out any latent demand for attending a sports event, that a future AFL team would never be able to establish itself in Tasmania.
However, after collating all of the data, it mostly leaves me in astonishment of the behemoth that is AFL in Melbourne, which can not really be compared to any other sport in any other City in Australia, in terms of how many people attend on a regular basis.
I put all of the data into graphs to make it easier to comprehend. There are some notes to the data, which I put with the graphs. And at the bottom are links to the data sources. It was a little bit disappointing how poor some of the sports crowd records are.
Anyway, the following two graphs should be self evident. The first shows the population of Australia's largest 21 Cities. Why 21, because that gets us down to Launceston. Also Central Coast (Gosford area) has been separated from Sydney. The second is the Average Attendance for the top 15 sports leagues. It is important to note that the State AFL tally comprises the SANFL, WAFL, VFL, TFL and NEAFL as one, whilst State NRL is the two comps in NSW and Queensland.
As you can see, Melbourne and Sydney stand out as the largest Cities, and after Adelaide, each of the other City sizes appear insignificant in comparison. In terms of the Sports League, no other sport really gets an average crowd near that of the AFL.
The next two graphs, show what the total attendance was to matches in each City, and breaks it down by colour to the individual sport. The cross also shows the total number of matches played there. The right hand graph, simply zooms in and cuts off the top of the table so you can get a better look at the smaller Cities and the smaller sports.
These next two graphs are similar to the previous two, but show what the total attendance was to matches for each Sport, and breaks it down by colour to the individual City. So just flips the previous graph. The cross also shows the total number of matches played there. The right hand graph, simply zooms in and cuts off the top of the table so you can get a better look at the smaller Cities and the smaller sports. Clearly AFL in Melbourne gets some massive total attendance over a season compared to anything else. The next closest are NRL in Sydney, AFL in Perth and AFL in Adelaide.
However, total attendance is not fair to compare Tasmania's ability to support an AFL team, as Melbourne has 88 AFL games in a season, where some supporters might attend up to 16 games in a season (both home and away). This exaggerates the sort of supporter levels there are, when in Launceston they only get 4 AFL games a season. So instead, if we look at how many people might attend a sports match per home team, some of those smaller Cities start to become a bit more comparable. So these graphs are derived by adding together the average attendance for each team that might play in that City. So for Melbourne it is the 9 AFL teams, plus the 2 BBL teams, plus the NRL team, plus the 2 NBL teams, plus 14 VFL teams etc, but only for the crowd attendance in that City. So Hawthorn games play in Launceston count towards Launceston and not Melbourne etc. In these examples the number of teams are shown by the red cross.
For the Cities above, and the Sports below, we still get very similar outcomes as the Total Attendance. However now a lot of the smaller Cities become a bit more evident when you look at their individual match attendances (since they often only get 1 to 4 season matches, so their total attendance is so much smaller compared to the Cities with 11 season matches). The number of teams in shown by the red crosses for each sport, will equal more than the number of teams per competition, due to some teams playing home games in multiple Cities.
So what has all this data been culminating towards. The Weekly Attendance Ratio. This is, how many people in the population attend the matches. The bars are for all 21 Cities combined, where as each of the shapes are the Cities and the Sports individually. Here you want a lower number, as it means you have a higher attendance rate. Such as Launceston has 1 in 2.8 in the population attend a sporting match per Home Team. Whereas in Melbourne on average 1 in 11,939 people attend an Australian Baseball League match. You will see Toowoomba and Albury did not have any matches of any sort from these 15 leagues... Perhaps there is some potential there for a smaller competition to jump in there with some games.
The big thing you will notice is that generally, the smaller the City, the better the attendance rate is at the sports match. There are some outliers here and there, but that is the general trend.
So just to try and make the above two sets of data a bit more easier to read, in the follow two graphs, I've removed all of the irrelevant Cities and the smaller sports. It really does show Melbourne as standing out. But also that the attendance rate in Launceston is really impressive, Hobart not so much. But imagine what they might do with their own team and not with the two fly-in fly-out teams that they have. But the AFL will have to get in quick before A-League or the NBL put a team down there, otherwise it is not likely another sport could survive there. Because for any City smaller than Canberra they don't seem to be able to host two teams. Just like AFL in Geelong, NRL in Townsville, NBL in Cairns, Wollongong sharing both an NRL and NBL team with Sydney.
Edit: I made an edit to remove Netball from the last graph, as I remembered the data source was flawed, and the last graph only included sports with accurate data.
Population: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Australia_by_population
Australian Football League: https://afltables.com/afl/crowds/2019.html
AFLW: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_AFL_Women's_season
Rugby League: https://afltables.com/rl/crowds/2019.html
Big Bash League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Big_Bash_League_season
Womens Big Bash League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018–19_Women's_Big_Bash_League_season
Super Rugby: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Super_Rugby_season#Attendances & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2019_Super_Rugby_matches & https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Global_Rapid_Rugby_season
National Rugby Championship: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_National_Rugby_Championship
A-League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_A-League#Results
W-League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_W-League
National Basketball League: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_NBL_regular_season
Womens National Basketball League: https://www.smh.com.au/sport/basket...-remains-on-shaky-ground-20190216-p50y8q.html & https://www.smh.com.au/sport/basketball/canberra-capitals-shatter-crowd-records-20190121-p50sn3.html & https://thewest.com.au/sport/basketball/basketball-fans-rally-behind-perth-lynx-ng-b881352079z & https://www.dropbox.com/s/l3bl5iz9ejmpvrr/Annual Report 2019.pdf?dl=0
Super Netball: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Suncorp_Super_Netball_season
Australian Baseball League: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?y=2018&sid=milb&t=l_att&lid=595
State NRL: https://www.nswrl.com.au/draw/?competition=113&season=2019&round=1 & https://www.qrl.com.au/draw/?competition=114&season=2019&round=1
State AFL: https://australianfootball.com/leag...all&club1=All&club2=All&ground=All&limit=1000 & http://www.waflfootyfacts.net/season/attendances.php?Season=2019 & https://australianfootball.com/seasons/season/vfl/126/premiership+season/9/9/2019/basic & https://australianfootball.com/seasons/season/tsl/122/premiership+season/6/6/2019/basic & https://australianfootball.com/seasons/season/neafl/140/premiership+season/2/2/2019
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