No Oppo Supporters The Positivity Thread

[silverscope]

So I had a thought during the day and decided to check some things out on footywire.com

Loss 50, Win 16, Win 28, Loss 31, Win 54, Loss 8, Loss 77, win 30, Loss 59, Loss 28, Loss 61, Win 3, Win 57, Loss 55, Loss 54, Win 9, Loss 29, Loss 59, Loss 58, Win 29, Loss 133, Loss 9.

That was 2018 for us if you hadn't worked it out. Average losing Margin of 50.7

Loss 25, Loss 26, Loss 5, Loss 93, Loss 5, Loss 34, Loss 7, Loss 14, Win 56, Loss 18, Loss 54, Loss 22, Loss 27, Win 55, Win 65, Win 33, Loss 5, Loss 42, Loss 3, Loss 31, Win 4, Loss 26.

That was Brisbane in 2018. Average losing 25.7

In 2019 our Avg losing margin is 21.75 (It's 11.8 if we gloss over the outlier in yesterdays thrashing)

Brisbane's first selection Since 2010. Pick 5 (Polec), Pick 8 (Longer), Pick 8 (Mayes), Pick 7(Aish), Pick 44 (Dawson)(1st Beams trade about here), Pick 2 (Schache), Pick 3 (McCluggage), Pick 1 Rayner, Pick 21 (Smith) Also Traded for Neale.

Freo's first selection Since 2010. Pick 20 (Pitt), Pick 16 (Sheridan), Pick 17 (Simpson), Pick 17 (Apeness), 13 (Weller), 27 (Tucker), 8 (Logue), Pick 2 (Brayshaw) and 5 (Cerra), Pick 17 (Sturt) Traded for Hogan.


I think we're tracking along nicely as a whole, is the gameplan perfect? No. Is it better than the previous two years, much better. Are we inconsistent yes. Are we playing finals, no. Are we going to get more wins than next year? Yes. Is Lyon our Coach? Currently Yes. Will he be in the future? I don't know. Is our list overall (taking injuries out of it) in a good spot? You bet your arse it is.

How long does a rebuild take? Is there more than one way to go about it, Yes. Is either way right or better? Hard to judge as it depends on the team. Just look at Carlton and Melbourne as examples of getting it horribly wrong for so long then one gets it right for a year at least. But they're growing (Melbourne)

I dunno this might mean nothing to some and you might pick it apart all you like but I guess at the end of the day I'm ok. We're 7-8 going into the final stretch with injuries mounting up on our list and not just any injuries, our spine is hurting and it shows. I think we'll be lucky to win 3 more games for the year and that puts us 2 wins ahead of last year. Does that do enough to get Ross an extension? I dunno, that's for the board to decide.

Will I support this team, I've been here since 95 and I kind of like purple.

Take a step back, leave bigfooty for a day or two. Clear your mind and enjoy the small things in life. If you read this far then I hope you're ok, always up for a chat if you need it. Have a good sleep.

 

[Shoeless Joe]

Thanks for bringing some calm and factual analysis Silverscope

From Champion data

"According to the stats gurus, based on every shot taken at Optus Stadium the Eagles should have won the derby by just three goals, 94-76. West Coast shot the lights out and Fremantle shot themselves in the foot.
That deficit for Fremantle is among the biggest ever differences recorded between expected and actual outcomes.

Their shot-at-goal accuracy of 8 per cent is the lowest on record.
They are not the only numbers to do a Freo fan’s head in. Fremantle created 60 forward entries to 50 and remarkably, played 58 per cent of the game in their forward half.
The expected score analysis might give heart to Docker diehards this morning that the team hasn’t completely fallen apart.
But bad kicking is bad football and it will be cold comfort for those with long memories.
In Fremantle’s heartbreaking 15-point grand final loss to Hawthorn in 2013, the expected score based on all shots taken was 94-88 in the Dockers’ favour.
Fremantle had 29 shots on goal to the Hawks’ 24, including the last eight shots on goal of the grand final that resulted in 2.4 and two that didn’t score."

At least we have something to work with in that we won the inside 50 entries. Stuffed if I know how you kick 2 goals from 60 entries tho

 

[Outshined]

I know this is the positivity thread, but someone made a very good point in another thread that Freo winning the i50 count is a bit deceptive in its representation of the game. West Coast were quite happy to let us continually attack without trying to put a whole heap of pressure on our ball carriers further up the ground, since so much of their forward thrust starts from McGovern, Hurn etc winning the ball across half back. We played right into their hands (yet again) and showed no will to change it.

However! Since since this is all about positivity, we still did create a decent amount of chances, and for some perverse reason I'm excited for the Hawthorn game because it'll give a great insight into how well they're really "buying in".

 

[silverscope]

Why do you dwell on the past? It’s not relevant to what’s happening today.

For some perspective. For people to see we actually have improved this year. Are we disappointed in the losses, well of course we are but there is more to it than that.

What's our yardstick we measure to? I mean you look at rebuilding teams over the last few years and measure against that.

Melbourne, finally got their shit together last year but has struggled this year and looks like they are slowly getting back to some decent football.

Brisbane, are basically last years Melbourne playing some good footy. But for both of those teams how long have they been building for? Brisbane finishes the last 5 years 15, 17, 17, 18, 15. Melbourne finishes the last 5 years 17, 13, 11, 9, 5. Now Brisbanes jump is probably more extreme but it took both teams a long time to get where they are.

St.Kilda - 18, 14, 9, 11, 16. They are still around where we currently are, sometimes good, sometimes really bad. Dealing with lots of injuries this season but the difference is our list is in a lot better shape than theirs.

Carlton - 13, 18, 14, 16, 18. They are no where near the mark. Did they beat us yeah sure, they also beat Brisbane and both after sacking their coach. They are in no mans land and have been for years with the occasional decent win but their list is average and they aren't going anywhere.

GC - Well they've only just this year decided to start again so they are basically Carlton 4 years ago.


Just for reference our last 5 finishes 4, 1, 16, 14, 14. This year could range from 12-8. I guess my overall point is rebuilds don't happen over night and one bad loss isn't reason to stray from our development path. We are improving, we are.

As a side note West Coast had 10 players who all have played 150+ games of AFL football. We had 3, Mundy, Sandi and Fyfe. Experience across the park matters and we'll get there in time. Sandi wont play next year and was really a stop gap so Darcy could get a rest. We're young, this types of losses happen sometimes.

 

[Belnakor]

I know this is the positivity thread, but someone made a very good point in another thread that Freo winning the i50 count is a bit deceptive in its representation of the game. West Coast were quite happy to let us continually attack without trying to put a whole heap of pressure on our ball carriers further up the ground, since so much of their forward thrust starts from McGovern, Hurn etc winning the ball across half back. We played right into their hands (yet again) and showed no will to change it.

However! Since since this is all about positivity, we still did create a decent amount of chances, and for some perverse reason I'm excited for the Hawthorn game because it'll give a great insight into how well they're really "buying in".

I think in some aspects it was a perfect storm of

1) Eagles being kissed on the dick from the umpires, they were gifted 3-4 goals early on which really got them going. (Darling shoves someone in the back, goal, the Rioli goal on the back of a throw, a "sling tackle" free kick which wasn't there etc)
2) They kicked some goals out of their arse (ie on the boundary) which they would kick 1/20 times.
3) We had 2 midfielders playing as defenders (cerra and blakely) who were almost totally unaccountable.

I don't think we're far off at all. It was a tough day no questions but some very small tweaks and i think we'll be back in action.

I'm bullish about us making the finals and i think we can win on the weekend.

 

[Belnakor]

I think we'll be lucky to win 3 more games for the year and that puts us 2 wins ahead of last year. Does that do enough to get Ross an extension? I dunno, that's for the board to decide.

We'll need to get to 12 wins to be sure of making the finals but i could see 11 based on the way the ladder is shaping up.

Hawks - Away
Swans - Home
Bulldogs - Away
Cats - Home
Saints - Away
Essendon - Home
Power - Away

i'd be thinking we can win the bolded then we just need to pinch one against the others. If we win on the weekend we'll make the finals. If we don't we'll need to beat the Cats at home which is going to be tough.

 

[Freeeoo]

One massive win and one massive loss, apart from that every game has been relatively close plus or minus a couple of goals.
As someone else said, the next two weeks will tell us a lot.
Just sifting through the ashes for some positivity, not easy after a loss like that.

 

[Cesoir]

I don't think we're far off at all. It was a tough day no questions but some very small tweaks and i think we'll be back in action.

I'm bullish about us making the finals and i think we can win on the weekend.

I applaud you my friend.

 

[Belnakor]

I applaud you my friend.

aside from this weekend our average losing margin is 11 points. We are doing alright.

Sometimes everything goes against you on a day. It happened on the weekend. It doesn't help when the opposition are gifted 5-6 goals in the first half through dodgy decisions or dodgy non decisions.

 

[ImperialPurple]

Nat Fyfe
Alex Pearce
Jesse Hogan working with Taberner
Brandon Matera playing to potential
Andy Brayshaw starting to show what he can do
Michael Walters
Brad Hill
Joel Hamling
Luke Ryan (almost all of the time, with some shit weeks, but a star down back when his game is on)

 

[Freomaniac]

A few positives to take out in the Derby.

Kicked 2.19. We had a lot of the ball, just needed to be accurate.

it took us 16 rounds to finally be belted by 50 points or more. In 2018 we got belted by 50 points or more 9 times. 4 of them happened between rounds 1-14. we then had the bye. between rounds 16-23 we got the other 5 drubbings.

I doubt we will have 9 50 points beatings in 2019.

We havent been beaten by 100 points this year.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

Thanks for bringing some calm and factual analysis Silverscope

From Champion data

"According to the stats gurus, based on every shot taken at Optus Stadium the Eagles should have won the derby by just three goals, 94-76. West Coast shot the lights out and Fremantle shot themselves in the foot.
That deficit for Fremantle is among the biggest ever differences recorded between expected and actual outcomes.

Their shot-at-goal accuracy of 8 per cent is the lowest on record.
They are not the only numbers to do a Freo fan’s head in. Fremantle created 60 forward entries to 50 and remarkably, played 58 per cent of the game in their forward half.
The expected score analysis might give heart to Docker diehards this morning that the team hasn’t completely fallen apart.
But bad kicking is bad football and it will be cold comfort for those with long memories.
In Fremantle’s heartbreaking 15-point grand final loss to Hawthorn in 2013, the expected score based on all shots taken was 94-88 in the Dockers’ favour.
Fremantle had 29 shots on goal to the Hawks’ 24, including the last eight shots on goal of the grand final that resulted in 2.4 and two that didn’t score."

At least we have something to work with in that we won the inside 50 entries. Stuffed if I know how you kick 2 goals from 60 entries tho

That was good to read except for the bold bit. Didn't want to be reminded of that tbh lol

Great find though, gives some perspective and a bit more of a realistic approach to an anomaly of a result

 

[raffrox]

Aaron Sandilands needs to be seen as one of our all time greats. Gave more than his all tonight.

 

[Dockers v Channel7West]

Good to see some positivity

 

[mike91]

Lobb running hurt and using his sore arm/shoulder to tackle in the last few seconds is inspiring.

 

[salim malik]

According to the AFL site Fremantle got through unscathed.

 

[Ysaye]

Brayshaw definitely on the incline yesterday but arguably that was Cerra's best game in a while too and Logue had his most influential bit of play.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

Crazy optimism time. Last nights win triggers something in the team, a bit like the 1 point win over Brisbane. We travel to the Dogs next week, play with some more vigour and win, and follow up against a Geelong side in 2nd gear looking towards finals. Suddenly, at 10-9, we're already in the 8 and the belief is back. We can afford to drop 1 of the last 3 games against St Kilda, Essendon and Port and still make it, coming in 7th. Bizarrely, doing the ladder predictor without predicting any crazy results, 8th place has a record of 11-11 and a good percentage. 12 wins will get you in.
We'd need a big form shift but we have some of the best players in the comp with Fyfe, Walters and Hill in good form and Lobb playing as our new gun KPF (hopefully he's ok).

It's nice to dream anyway.

 

[StingBitten]

We've reached the same number of wins managed in the last two seasons.

And we have five more chances to improve on it.

 

[masai]

According to the AFL site Fremantle got through unscathed.

Bit like the “Holy Grail”, with Lobb.

“Ah it’s just a nick”.

 

[masai]

Brayshaw definitely on the incline yesterday but arguably that was Cerra's best game in a while too and Logue had his most influential bit of play.

All 3 did well.

Please remember that they are only second year players ****. Logue lost a year through injury.

 

[sumavich]

With Logue (20 games), Darcy (20 something games), Cerra (36 odd games), Brayshaw (38 odd games), hamling (80 or more) starting to see these guys in our better players is where we will start seeing improvement. Hamlin is an outlier, but was our best last nite imo

 

[Joao]

With Logue (20 games), Darcy (20 something games), Cerra (36 odd games), Brayshaw (38 odd games), hamling (80 or more) starting to see these guys in our better players is where we will start seeing improvement. Hamlin is an outlier, but was our best last nite imo

Hamling is in our better players most weeks. Very good player.

 

[ImperialPurple]

1. Hamling - superstar, elite defender
2. Brayshaw - elite-in-waiting
3. Logue - going to be very, very, very good
4. Conca - like many I was very iffy when we recruited him, but I’m loving what he brings to this team. Leadership, toughness around the ball, and (dare I say it?) great effort. Thumbs up to Reece.

 

[Cesoir]

4. Conca - like many I was very iffy when we recruited him, but I’m loving what he brings to this team. Leadership, toughness around the ball, and (dare I say it?) great effort. Thumbs up to Reece.

And cuddles...