The run home - Fremantle

[wakeboardandy]

take nothing for granted.. remember our easy win against Port Adelaide in rd 22 in 2008 to secure 4th spot?

 

[Twinkletoes]

take nothing for granted.. remember our easy win against Port Adelaide in rd 22 in 2008 to secure 4th spot?

Please don't raise that again mate. It's too soon!

*your example sums it up though. The comp's too even to make certain predictions.

 

[Joey7]

I dont care if we make it or not - what i do care about is how we approach the next two weeks. We want respect - well we need to win the next two games and be super competitive. Its as simple as that. Finals will look after themselves when we mature as a team and start being competitive against Top 4 opposition.

 

[rooboy_07]

we have to win 4/5 to make it so it is going to be tough

 

[Event Horizon]

I dont care if we make it or not - what i do care about is how we approach the next two weeks. We want respect - well we need to win the next two games and be super competitive. Its as simple as that. Finals will look after themselves when we mature as a team and start being competitive against Top 4 opposition.

All correct, but I still care if we make it or not, because playing even just the one final would fast track our development by 12 months I reckon. A first finals series for a team is almost always a precursor to a more meaningful one the following year.

 

[danj]

All correct, but I still care if we make it or not, because playing even just the one final would fast track our development by 12 months I reckon. A first finals series for a team is almost always a precursor to a more meaningful one the following year.

^ Nail head hit on the

 

[Hoser]

All correct, but I still care if we make it or not, because playing even just the one final would fast track our development by 12 months I reckon. A first finals series for a team is almost always a precursor to a more meaningful one the following year.

I'm with you. Sneaking into the 8 and potentially getting a big crowd against the Blues would offer some very valuable big game experience.

 

[Joey7]

All correct, but I still care if we make it or not, because playing even just the one final would fast track our development by 12 months I reckon. A first finals series for a team is almost always a precursor to a more meaningful one the following year.

I don't think it would - we would be making up the numbers. Unless we are competitive its a waste of time. Regardless of if we make it or not, the coaches are well aware of our deficiencies - making a final series by default isn't going to fix those underlying issues.

I agree that it would give great exposure to the young group, but i honestly dont think we are good enough yet.

West Coast finished on the bottom last year - now they are in a position to challenge for top 4. That improvement came from 2-3 years of implementing a game plan not finishing 7-8th and making up the numbers.

 

[Event Horizon]

I don't think it would - we would be making up the numbers. Unless we are competitive its a waste of time. Regardless of if we make it or not, the coaches are well aware of our deficiencies - making a final series by default isn't going to fix those underlying issues.

I agree that it would give great exposure to the young group, but i honestly dont think we are good enough yet.

West Coast finished on the bottom last year - now they are in a position to challenge for top 4. That improvement came from 2-3 years of implementing a game plan not finishing 7-8th and making up the numbers.

I'd say we'd be a very good chance against any of the teams in the bottom part of the 8.
As for West Coast - who knows, perhaps that lack of finals experience will cost them.

 

[Tas]

we have to win 4/5 to make it so it is going to be tough

We "might" make it if we win 3 depending on how other results pan out but I think if we should be going out to knock off Carlton and Hawthorn and not limp into the finals beating nobody of note. If you make it, you want to have some belief that you have some hope to win a final.

 

[Juryduty]

All I can say is we may be cursing our start to the season, probably only needed one of those close losses, but we had alot of luck against us early in the year so maybe we will get a lot of luck towards the end. Also fair to say we have not had one lucky win this year hence our smallest winning margin being 21 points.

 

[CBSlogger]

If we win 4 more we're practically a certainty.

If we win 3 more, for us to miss out 3 out of these 5 teams would have to achieve their quota below:

Sydney - win 2 out of 5 against: Ess (A), Rich (A), StK (H), Geel (A), Bris (H)
Fremantle - win 3 out of 6 against: Haw (H), StK (A), Carl (H), North (A), Coll (H), Dogs (A)
St Kilda - win 3 out of 6 against: GC (A), Freo (H), Coll (H), Syd (A), North (H), Carl (A)
Essendon - win 3 out of 5 against: Coll (A), Syd (H), Dogs (A), WCE (A), Port (H)
Melbourne - win 4 out of 6 against: Geel (A), Carl (A), WCE (H), Rich (H), GC (H), Port (A)

If 3 of these 5 teams above fail to win their quota above & we can stay 2% ahead of Freo, we WILL get in with 3 more wins.

Given each of these teams play at least 1 other contender (bolded) in the run home, it's very possible.

 

[Daz]

If we win 4 more we're practically a certainty.

If we win 3 more for us to miss out 3 out of these 4 teams would have to achieve their quota below:

Sydney - win 2 out of 5 against: Ess (A), Rich (A), StK (H), Geel (A), Bris (H)
Fremantle - win 3 out of 6 against: Haw (H), StK (A), Carl (H), North (A), Coll (H), Dogs (A)
St Kilda - win 3 out of 6 against: GC (A), Freo (H), Coll (H), Syd (A), North (H), Carl (A)
Essendon - win 3 out of 5 against: Coll (A), Syd (H), Dogs (A), WCE (A), Port (H)

If 2 of these 4 teams above fail to win their quota above & we can keep stay 2% ahead of Freo, we WILL get in with 3 more wins.

Don't discount Melbourne either.

 

[Freomaniac]

Personally I will be heartbroken if My team miss out a finals spot again.

I was frustrated when we lost by a point recently.

i realise ther will be some more key games as well such as essendon vs bulldogs.

Funny things is that Regardless which team North put in they always thumped freo at Docklands like last season.

Im praying we get up over the hawks this week. Nothing personal guys.

Still I have watched your team this season and you guys should be in the 8 right now. you guys lost 2 games under 12 points which they should have won. its going to be a hard fight for the 7th and 8th spots

 

[RooHooDoo]

Bit of a hard luck story for Freo if they miss given the injuries they have had.

If North cant get there Im more than happy for Freo to be in. As long as the scum miss as well then its good for footy all round

 

[Juryduty]

Personally I will be heartbroken if My team miss out a finals spot again.

I was frustrated when we lost by a point recently.

i realise ther will be some more key games as well such as essendon vs bulldogs.

Funny things is that Regardless which team North put in they always thumped freo at Docklands like last season.

Im praying we get up over the hawks this week. Nothing personal guys.

Still I have watched your team this season and you guys should be in the 8 right now. you guys lost 2 games under 12 points which they should have won. its going to be a hard fight for the 7th and 8th spots

I don't think anyone on here is going to abuse because you want your team to make the finals, hell you would be in top 4 if not for any injuries to key players, and North would probably be cemented in the eight if not for our horrid start to season in regards to injuries.

 

[Event Horizon]

If we win 4 more we're practically a certainty.

If we win 3 more, for us to miss out 3 out of these 5 teams would have to achieve their quota below:

Sydney - win 2 out of 5 against: Ess (A), Rich (A), StK (H), Geel (A), Bris (H)
Fremantle - win 3 out of 6 against: Haw (H), StK (A), Carl (H), North (A), Coll (H), Dogs (A)
St Kilda - win 3 out of 6 against: GC (A), Freo (H), Coll (H), Syd (A), North (H), Carl (A)
Essendon - win 3 out of 5 against: Coll (A), Syd (H), Dogs (A), WCE (A), Port (H)
Melbourne - win 4 out of 6 against: Geel (A), Carl (A), WCE (H), Rich (H), GC (H), Port (A)

If 3 of these 5 teams above fail to win their quota above & we can stay 2% ahead of Freo, we WILL get in with 3 more wins.

Given each of these teams play at least 1 other contender (bolded) in the run home, it's very possible.

Great analysis. To me it's very likely that Freo, Essendon and Melbourne will NOT achieve these quotas, so 11 wins may well be enough for us.

 

[utility]

I would think that we'd need to win one or both of our games before the bye to be any chance.

The Sydney and St Kilda losses where we kicked ourselves out of it may end up proving to be pivotal.

 

[Juryduty]

Herald Sun has us finishing 12th with 10 wins

 

[Event Horizon]

Herald Sun has us finishing 12th with 10 wins

If we let herald sun control our destiny, we'd be playing up on the Gold Coast by now...We'll just have to show them that you don't always tip the higher team on the ladder.

 

[ByTheBeardOfZeus]

Just remember that we have no certainties out of the remaining 5 games, including some very tough ones. Making the finals from here will need a huge effort against teams currently in the top 8. So far this season we haven't beaten any team that is currently up there. Huge effort

 

[Event Horizon]

Just remember that we have no certainties out of the remaining 5 games, including some very tough ones. Making the finals from here will need a huge effort against teams currently in the top 8. So far this season we haven't beaten any team that is currently up there. Huge effort

The fact we haven't beaten teams currently in the eight means nothing. We've beaten Essendon and Melbourne when they were in the eight, and Dogs when they hit some great form. We also lost to Sydney by a point, so I wouldn't count that against us, as we outplayed them I thought. And Carlton/Hawks we haven't played at all, but record over the last 2-3 years is very encouraging, as is our home record against Freo, and losing to Richmond twice in one season is practically impossible, especially given how they're travelling at the minute.

 

[ByTheBeardOfZeus]

The fact we haven't beaten teams currently in the eight means nothing. We've beaten Essendon and Melbourne when they were in the eight, and Dogs when they hit some great form. We also lost to Sydney by a point, so I wouldn't count that against us, as we outplayed them I thought. And Carlton/Hawks we haven't played at all, but record over the last 2-3 years is very encouraging, as is our home record against Freo, and losing to Richmond twice in one season is practically impossible, especially given how they're travelling at the minute.

I agree, but the fact remains that it's going to be an amazing effort to make the 8 from here. Playing two top 4 teams, an in form Saints, and two teams we've already lost to this year.

 

[Shinboner Schem]

I've tipped the following results (wins in green). I see us winning one of Carl/Haw/StK but for this excercise have given St Kilda the win as they're one of our competition for the 8:

Sydney 38points: Ess (A), Rich (A), StK (H), Geel (A), Bris (H)
Fremantle 36: Haw (H), StK (A), Carl (H), North (A), Coll (H), Dogs (A)
St Kilda 34: GC (A), Freo (H), Coll (H), Syd (A), North (H), Carl (A)
Essendon 34: Coll (A), Syd (H), Dogs (A), WCE (A), Port (H)
North 32: Carl (H), Haw (A), Freo (H), StK (A), Rich (A)
Melbourne 30: Geel (A), Carl (A), WCE (H), Rich (H), GC (H), Port (A)

This makes Essendon the tipping point for us to make the 8 based on us only winning 3 more games. We really want the Dogs or Swans to beat them.

6 St Kilda 50 points
7 Sydney 46
8 Essendon 46
9 North 44
10 Fremantle 44
11 Melbourne 42

Also need the teams above the Dees to hold their form over them over the next 3 weeks.

 

[Event Horizon]

I've tipped the following results (wins in green). I see us winning one of Carl/Haw/StK but for this excercise have given St Kilda the win as they're one of our competition for the 8:

Sydney 38points: Ess (A), Rich (A), StK (H), Geel (A), Bris (H)
Fremantle 36: Haw (H), StK (A), Carl (H), North (A), Coll (H), Dogs (A)
St Kilda 34: GC (A), Freo (H), Coll (H), Syd (A), North (H), Carl (A)
Essendon 34: Coll (A), Syd (H), Dogs (A), WCE (A), Port (H)
North 32: Carl (H), Haw (A), Freo (H), StK (A), Rich (A)
Melbourne 30: Geel (A), Carl (A), WCE (H), Rich (H), GC (H), Port (A)

This makes Essendon the tipping point for us to make the 8 based on us only winning 3 more games. We really want the Dogs or Swans to beat them.

6 St Kilda 50 points
7 Sydney 46
8 Essendon 46
9 North 44
10 Fremantle 44
11 Melbourne 42

Also need the teams above the Dees to hold their form over them over the next 3 weeks.

I think the Dogs will beat Essendon.