Fixture The Run to Finals

[eth-dog]

Okay, so I'm pretty much calling Sydney and Carlton locks from here (as much as I wish it weren't so. Seriously, **** Carlton). Everyone from 3rd (us) down to 13th (Hawthorne) are a chance of making it or missing out, and you can put a line through the bottom 5. Now I know the poll is reflecting who makes it rather than where we finish but feel free to add where you think we'll finish ITT. Running through each teams fixture from 3rd to 13th and the likelihood of them winning IMO.

Essendon (38 pts, 102.7%): Gee (50/50), Col (50/50), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), StK (W), Fre (50/50), GC (50/50), Syd (L), Bri (50/50). 58 points.

Collingwood (36 pts, 107.3%): GC (50/50), Ess (50/50), Gee (50/50), Haw (W), Ric (W), Car (50/50), Syd (L), Bri (W), Mel (50/50). 60 points.

Fremantle (34 pts, 112.3%): Syd (L), Ric (W), Haw (W), Mel (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Gee (50/50), GWS (50/50), PA (50/50). 54 points.

Greater Western Sydney (32 pts, 110.5%): Ade (W), Car (L), Ric (W), GC (50/50), Mel (50/50), Haw (W), Bri (50/50), Fre (50/50), WB (50/50). 56 points.

Geelong (32 pts, 102.9%): Ess (50/50), Haw (W), Col (50/50), WB (50/50), NM (W), Ade (W), Fre (50/50), StK (W), WC (W). 60 pts.

Port Adelaide (32 pts, 101%): StK (W), WB (50/50), GC (50/50), Ric (W), Car (L), Syd (L), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), Fre (50/50). 52 pts.

Melbourne (32 pts, 100.4%): Bri (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Fre (50/50), GWS (50/50), WB (50/50), PA (50/50), GC (50/50), Col (50/50). 52 pts

Brisbane (30 pts, 122.1%): Mel (50/50), Ade (W), WC (W), Syd (L), GC (50/50), StK (W), GWS (50/50), Col (L), Ess (50/50). 50 pts.

Footscray (28 points, 119.8%): NM (W), PA (50/50), Car (L), Gee (50/50), Syd (L), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), NM (W), GWS (50/50). 48 pts.

Gold Coast (28 pts, 105.6%): Col (50/50), NM (W), PA (50/50), GWS (50/50), Bri (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Mel (50/50), Ric (W). 52 pts.

Hawthorne (28 pts, 92.7%): WC (W), Gee (L), Fre (L), Col (L), Ade (W), GWS (L), Car (L), Ric (W), NM (W). 44 pts.

Might have been a bit harsh on the Hawkes but I see a clear gap between them and teams like Geelong, Collingwood, Freo and GWS.

Based on the above I see us finishing 5th, with 8th to come down to Port, Melbourne and GC on %.

 

[sup3rfish]

our next 3 weeks are a real sign of where we are at.
win 2 of them and we are pushing for top 4 3rd - 5th finish IMO. win 1 its 6th - 8th.

 

[ghostdog]

Okay, so I'm pretty much calling Sydney and Carlton locks from here (as much as I wish it weren't so. Seriously, **** Carlton). Everyone from 3rd (us) down to 13th (Hawthorne) are a chance of making it or missing out, and you can put a line through the bottom 5. Now I know the poll is reflecting who makes it rather than where we finish but feel free to add where you think we'll finish ITT. Running through each teams fixture from 3rd to 13th and the likelihood of them winning IMO.

Essendon (38 pts, 102.7%): Gee (50/50), Col (50/50), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), StK (W), Fre (50/50), GC (50/50), Syd (L), Bri (50/50). 58 points.

Collingwood (36 pts, 107.3%): GC (50/50), Ess (50/50), Gee (50/50), Haw (W), Ric (W), Car (50/50), Syd (L), Bri (W), Mel (50/50). 60 points.

Fremantle (34 pts, 112.3%): Syd (L), Ric (W), Haw (W), Mel (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Gee (50/50), GWS (50/50), PA (50/50). 54 points.

Greater Western Sydney (32 pts, 110.5%): Ade (W), Car (L), Ric (W), GC (50/50), Mel (50/50), Haw (W), Bri (50/50), Fre (50/50), WB (50/50). 56 points.

Geelong (32 pts, 102.9%): Ess (50/50), Haw (W), Col (50/50), WB (50/50), NM (W), Ade (W), Fre (50/50), StK (W), WC (W). 60 pts.

Port Adelaide (32 pts, 101%): StK (W), WB (50/50), GC (50/50), Ric (W), Car (L), Syd (L), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), Fre (50/50). 52 pts.

Melbourne (32 pts, 100.4%): Bri (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Fre (50/50), GWS (50/50), WB (50/50), PA (50/50), GC (50/50), Col (50/50). 52 pts

Brisbane (30 pts, 122.1%): Mel (50/50), Ade (W), WC (W), Syd (L), GC (50/50), StK (W), GWS (50/50), Col (L), Ess (50/50). 50 pts.

Footscray (28 points, 119.8%): NM (W), PA (50/50), Car (L), Gee (50/50), Syd (L), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), NM (W), GWS (50/50). 48 pts.

Gold Coast (28 pts, 105.6%): Col (50/50), NM (W), PA (50/50), GWS (50/50), Bri (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Mel (50/50), Ric (W). 52 pts.

Hawthorne (28 pts, 92.7%): WC (W), Gee (L), Fre (L), Col (L), Ade (W), GWS (L), Car (L), Ric (W), NM (W). 44 pts.

Might have been a bit harsh on the Hawkes but I see a clear gap between them and teams like Geelong, Collingwood, Freo and GWS.

Based on the above I see us finishing 5th, with 8th to come down to Port, Melbourne and GC on %.

It's counter-intuitive, but part of me would rather finish fifth so we have a better chance of winning a final.
What a sadist.

 

[Dave]

y u do dis?

 

[VelvetSledge]

Crazy that we're genuinely in the frame for a Top 4 finish.
What a bizarre season

 

[Milanista28]

Crazy that we're genuinely in the frame for a Top 4 finish.
What a bizarre season

 

[ghostdog]

Crazy that we're genuinely in the frame for a Top 4 finish.
What a bizarre season

What would be worse than not winning a final would be a straight sets exit.

 

[VelvetSledge]

What would be worse than not winning a final would be a straight sets exit.

 

[The Airing of Grievances]

Given we are rating ourselves more likely than Sydney, Carlton and Collingwood to make top 8, I could see the poll result making an appearance on other teams' Delusional Pearlers threads if they have one. Still, in the words of David Putty " Gotta support the team!"
Even with my rosier tinted glasses on I see us with one less win than eth-dog. Still 54pts should get us no worse than 5th or 6th and so avoid the dreaded interstate elimination final . I rate both Geelong and Melbourne lesser chances than eth , (though I might see it differently by 10.30pm Saturday.) Even though Port have been poor last 3 games they have a relatively easy finish and might still scrape into top 4. Think the Lions finish strong and may even sneak top 4. Both Footscray and Hawthorn could still sneak in, Hawks' percentage probably cruels their pitch, Dogs' might get them home.
FWIW I reckon
1 Sydney
2 Carlton
3 Collingwood
4 Brisbane
5 port Adelaide
6 Essendon
7 GWS
8 Freo/ Dogs cant decide
EF against GWS either at Marvel or MCG is a good match up for us as our home record vs them is pretty good.
The prospect of a Sydney v Carlton Grand Final is so horrible to contemplate that I have arranged to be overseas by GF day and am hopeful will find no mention of the game on Polish TV.

 

[eth-dog]

Given we are rating ourselves more likely than Sydney, Carlton and Collingwood to make top 8, I could see the poll result making an appearance on other teams' Delusional Pearlers threads if they have one. Still, in the words of David Putty " Gotta support the team!"
Even with my rosier tinted glasses on I see us with one less win than eth-dog. Still 54pts should get us no worse than 5th or 6th and so avoid the dreaded interstate elimination final . I rate both Geelong and Melbourne lesser chances than eth , (though I might see it differently by 10.30pm Saturday.) Even though Port have been poor last 3 games they have a relatively easy finish and might still scrape into top 4. Think the Lions finish strong and may even sneak top 4. Both Footscray and Hawthorn could still sneak in, Hawks' percentage probably cruels their pitch, Dogs' might get them home.
FWIW I reckon
1 Sydney
2 Carlton
3 Collingwood
4 Brisbane
5 port Adelaide
6 Essendon
7 GWS
8 Freo/ Dogs cant decide
EF against GWS either at Marvel or MCG is a good match up for us as our home record vs them is pretty good.
The prospect of a Sydney v Carlton Grand Final is so horrible to contemplate that I have arranged to be overseas by GF day and am hopeful will find no mention of the game on Polish TV.

We aren't, that's just I Remember Bluey voting us and us alone. Everyone who's voted for multiple teams have voted for all three of them.

 

[Cold Sober]

Crazy that we're genuinely in the frame for a Top 4 finish.
What a bizarre season

And a genuine chance of not making it at all.

 

[JayJ20]

I think the final 8 will be in no particular order other than Sydney and Carlton:

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
Essendon
Collingwood
Fremantle
GWS
Brisbane
Bulldogs

Top 4 likely Collingwood and one of Essendon or Brisbane.

 

[JayJ20]

Okay, so I'm pretty much calling Sydney and Carlton locks from here (as much as I wish it weren't so. Seriously, **** Carlton). Everyone from 3rd (us) down to 13th (Hawthorne) are a chance of making it or missing out, and you can put a line through the bottom 5. Now I know the poll is reflecting who makes it rather than where we finish but feel free to add where you think we'll finish ITT. Running through each teams fixture from 3rd to 13th and the likelihood of them winning IMO.

Essendon (38 pts, 102.7%): Gee (50/50), Col (50/50), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), StK (W), Fre (50/50), GC (50/50), Syd (L), Bri (50/50). 58 points.

Collingwood (36 pts, 107.3%): GC (50/50), Ess (50/50), Gee (50/50), Haw (W), Ric (W), Car (50/50), Syd (L), Bri (W), Mel (50/50). 60 points.

Fremantle (34 pts, 112.3%): Syd (L), Ric (W), Haw (W), Mel (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Gee (50/50), GWS (50/50), PA (50/50). 54 points.

Greater Western Sydney (32 pts, 110.5%): Ade (W), Car (L), Ric (W), GC (50/50), Mel (50/50), Haw (W), Bri (50/50), Fre (50/50), WB (50/50). 56 points.

Geelong (32 pts, 102.9%): Ess (50/50), Haw (W), Col (50/50), WB (50/50), NM (W), Ade (W), Fre (50/50), StK (W), WC (W). 60 pts.

Port Adelaide (32 pts, 101%): StK (W), WB (50/50), GC (50/50), Ric (W), Car (L), Syd (L), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), Fre (50/50). 52 pts.

Melbourne (32 pts, 100.4%): Bri (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Fre (50/50), GWS (50/50), WB (50/50), PA (50/50), GC (50/50), Col (50/50). 52 pts

Brisbane (30 pts, 122.1%): Mel (50/50), Ade (W), WC (W), Syd (L), GC (50/50), StK (W), GWS (50/50), Col (L), Ess (50/50). 50 pts.

Footscray (28 points, 119.8%): NM (W), PA (50/50), Car (L), Gee (50/50), Syd (L), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), NM (W), GWS (50/50). 48 pts.

Gold Coast (28 pts, 105.6%): Col (50/50), NM (W), PA (50/50), GWS (50/50), Bri (50/50), WC (W), Ess (50/50), Mel (50/50), Ric (W). 52 pts.

Hawthorne (28 pts, 92.7%): WC (W), Gee (L), Fre (L), Col (L), Ade (W), GWS (L), Car (L), Ric (W), NM (W). 44 pts.

Might have been a bit harsh on the Hawkes but I see a clear gap between them and teams like Geelong, Collingwood, Freo and GWS.

Based on the above I see us finishing 5th, with 8th to come down to Port, Melbourne and GC on %.

Gold Coast for Essendon is a W not 50/50 IMO. They are seriously trash away.

My assessment:
Essendon (38 pts, 102.7%): Gee (50/50), Col (50/50), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), StK (W), Fre (50/50), GC (W), Syd (L), Bri (L). 58 points.

The next 3 games are huge. We need to secure our spot whatever we're aiming to achieve before the Sydney game because I think we'll finish the year off with two losses.

 

[eth-dog]

Gold Coast for Essendon is a W not 50/50 IMO. They are seriously trash away.

My assessment:
Essendon (38 pts, 102.7%): Gee (50/50), Col (50/50), Mel (50/50), Ade (W), StK (W), Fre (50/50), GC (W), Syd (L), Bri (L). 58 points.

The next 3 games are huge. We need to secure our spot whatever we're aiming to achieve before the Sydney game because I think we'll finish the year off with two losses.

Depends on where Brisbane are. If they can't make it I see it as a win.

 

[Mercurial89]

I kind of feel making top 4 or finishing 5th would genuinely say more about where we are at and how far they have come than winning a one off finals game in September would.
If we are to finish in those positions it will have meant we probably played out the year and beat some sides that have been pretty good for a long period of time, possibly including Geelong a side that has regularly ended our season and blown up any semblance of stability the club has had.

Going to be a fascinating run home.

 

[Perko16]

Need to win 2 out of the next three for a top 4 finish in my opinion. Can see the ladder looking like this after rd24:

1. Sydney
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. Brisbane
5. Geelong
6. Gws
7. Essendon
8. Freo

Hope I’m wrong because that top 5 makes me sick

 

[JayJ20]

Depends on where Brisbane are. If they can't make it I see it as a win.

Or if they have a top 4 spot wrapped up. But I doubt they miss and believe they'll be fighting for a top 4 spot so I don't see us winning.

 

[VelvetSledge]

And a genuine chance of not making it at all.

View attachment 2029065

 

[fishardansin]

Essendon should win the next 6.

 

[Nicholas61]

I dreamt early in the season Carlton win the Flag, it felt very real. Had similar with Geelong a couple of years back. I really hope this one doesn't happen. I will even cheer on Free Kick Sydney. Go Bombreys!

 

[84859300]

Geelong are ripe for the taking - will sum up where we at

 

[Happyskeret]

Essendon should win the next 6.

Lid will be off for me if that happens.

 

[TheBrightSide]

I dreamt early in the season Carlton win the Flag, it felt very real. Had similar with Geelong a couple of years back. I really hope this one doesn't happen. I will even cheer on Free Kick Sydney. Go Bombreys!

A Carlton flag would certainly dampen my enthusiasm for AFL, and sport in general.

 

[HirdyLannister]

I feel that we have a better chance of winning a final if we finish 5th than finishing in the top 4

 

[Nicholas61]

A Carlton flag would certainly dampen my enthusiasm for AFL, and sport in general.

Especially straight after a Collingwood flag