Fixture The Run to Finals

[JayJ20]

Oh my fellow Bomber diehards. The season is not yet over.

The premiership is still there for the taking. If WC at home and the Saints can beat Carlton and we win our last 2 games to a suspect Sydney and Brisbane we can still make finals and maybe even a revenge elim final at home against the WB where we can smash that little knee-bender Weightman. Then they can watch us do a 2016 on the rest of the comp.

It will be so beautiful to behold.

A suspect Sydney and Brisbane lol. I admire your optimism, but there is no more suspect team in the league than playing a travelling Gold Coast and we lost. Even if we fluke a win against Sydney, Brisbane at the Gabba when they have a top 4 spot on the line? Nah. Season is cooked.

 

[The Prosecutor]

I'm fully embracing that we'll probably beat Sydney and other results will go our way, only to then lose by 15 goals to Brisbane when there's genuine hope.

 

[Mr Bultitude]

Now that there's no expectation on us, watch, nothing surer than us beating Sydney and Brisbane. This club.

 

[gillon]

I could see us beating Sydney at home. The chances of us beating the Lions with likely top 4 or top 2 on the line would be 5% though

 

[Blind Turn]

A suspect Sydney and Brisbane lol. I admire your optimism, but there is no more suspect team in the league than playing a travelling Gold Coast and we lost. Even if we fluke a win against Sydney, Brisbane at the Gabba when they have a top 4 spot on the line? Nah. Season is cooked.

Tongue is extremely firm inside my cheek.

I thought the tone of my post might convey that.

 

[div12ressie]

 

[Rick Ross]

Booking my September tickets for Ibiza* with Perko.





*Ok, he might be going there, I have a blinding camp site at Wilson’s Prom locked in.

 

[I Remember Bluey]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-run-home-predicting-the-final-four-rounds-of-the-regular-season/news-story/b4e521f583cf4072796e119e500d229f

10. ESSENDON​

Won: 11, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 46, Percentage: 96.0

PREDICTED FINISH IF ESSENDON:​

WIN TWO- 9th (13-9-1): Miss finals.
We’re predicting even two wins won’t be enough for the Bombers. They need to jump two of the Blues, Hawks, Dogs and Freo to make it. So barrack against those teams Dons fans, but it could all be over come Friday night.
WIN ONE- 10th (12-10-1): Miss finals.
Essendon would play finals with one win if two of the Dogs, Hawks and Blues lost both their matches, while the Magpies lost at least once.
WIN ZERO- 12th (11-11-1): Miss finals.
After so much promise, two losses would mean Essendon fail to win over half their games in 2024.

---

VERDICT: WIN ZERO
R23: Sydney, MARV (L)
R24: Brisbane, Gabba (L)
Predicted finish: 12th (11-11-1)

 

[faible]

Carlton didn't make finals between 2013 and 2023 yet made it all the way to a prelim.
Bulldogs had an EF loss in 2015 and won a premiership the next year.

I don't think our list needs to experience an EF thrashing. We've had plenty of that and it hasn't brought us any closer.

The only time I'd want them to play finals is if it'll be a competitive final. Are we confident that we'll be competitive vs Port, GWS, Fremantle or Brisbane away in a final? Are we confident we'll be competitive vs Geelong or Bulldogs in a final? Because they are the likely opponents we'll face.

I'm not confident. I hoped we'd host a final for the first time since 2002 but we messed that up.

If we win all remaining games, then I'd be confident we're one of the top 8 best sides this year. If we beat Gold Coast and an out of form Sydney, then get thrashed by Brisbane, I'd prefer we miss out because we lose a couple of draft positions for an extra thrashing we'll get nothing out of.

I've long thought 'finals experience' is a correlation vs causation thing.

Teams don't tend to spontaneously improve, it's usually improvement over time.

You first get good enough to make finals, but not really be a contender or necessarily winning one, before being a contender and winning one, or two, or a GF. So it's the natural improvement of the list resulting in first playing finals before winning a Premiership, being confused for 'finals experience' being the driving factor.

You can go from not playing finals to winning a Premiership if you improve that much in one off-season. Richmond went from barely having made finals, not having won one (I think) since the mid 90s, to winning a Premiership off a massive improvement in performance.

 

[BomberManU]

You can go from not playing finals to winning a Premiership if you improve that much in one off-season. Richmond went from barely having made finals, not having won one (I think) since the mid 90s, to winning a Premiership off a massive improvement in performance.

They made a Prelim in 2001, not sure if anything after that?

 

[faible]

They made a Prelim in 2001, not sure if anything after that?

Ah I missed that one, saw their loss in the QF and didn't look further down.

No wins after that AFAIK, mostly didn't even play finals. They did quite famously lose in 2012 to the 9th placed Carlton.

 

[JayJ20]

I've long thought 'finals experience' is a correlation vs causation thing.

Teams don't tend to spontaneously improve, it's usually improvement over time.

You first get good enough to make finals, but not really be a contender or necessarily winning one, before being a contender and winning one, or two, or a GF. So it's the natural improvement of the list resulting in first playing finals before winning a Premiership, being confused for 'finals experience' being the driving factor.

You can go from not playing finals to winning a Premiership if you improve that much in one off-season. Richmond went from barely having made finals, not having won one (I think) since the mid 90s, to winning a Premiership off a massive improvement in performance.

Context is important. I'll address the bolded at the end of the post.

Richmond were top 8 quality when they were making finals between 2013-2015. You couldn't say teams outside of the 8 were better than Richmond and more deserving of a finals spot. When we make finals, we're generally the worst side in the top 8 with a terrible percentage compared to the rest. We rely on other results to fall our way and we fall into the 8. There's generally teams outside of the 8 with better lists and better percentage. In many cases, an easy fixture got us there over some of our contenders. We show up to finals and the game is over by QT.

That is then balanced out when we receive a tough fixture and fall back down the following year. I'd rather make finals when we're genuinely a top 8 team so that it's a sustained finals push.

What you describe in bold is something I feel we never achieved. We never build on our finals appearance because we were never really good enough to begin with even if we technically made finals.

If we make finals this year it'll be the same as always. It isn't a sign that we're building something to me just like all the other times.

 

[faible]

Context is important. I'll address the bolded at the end of the post.

Richmond were top 8 quality when they were making finals between 2013-2015. You couldn't say teams outside of the 8 were better than Richmond and more deserving of a finals spot. When we make finals, we're generally the worst side in the top 8 with a terrible percentage compared to the rest. We rely on other results to fall our way and we fall into the 8. There's generally teams outside of the 8 with better lists and better percentage. In many cases, an easy fixture got us there over some of our contenders. We show up to finals and the game is over by QT.

That is then balanced out when we receive a tough fixture and fall back down the following year. I'd rather make finals when we're genuinely a top 8 team so that it's a sustained finals push.

What you describe in bold is something I feel we never achieved. We never build on our finals appearance because we were never really good enough to begin with even if we technically made finals.

If we make finals this year it'll be the same as always. It isn't a sign that we're building something to me just like all the other times.

Carlton is a good example as well; had no real finals experience to speak of, won all the way to a PF last year, then now armed with 'finals experience' have fallen back down the ladder.

We've been a mid-table side for a long time that is usually the worst or second worst side to make finals if we do so. Despite regularly making finals over the last 20 years it hasn't really done us any good because we're simply not a very good side to begin with.

Brisbane went from bottom 4 to top 4 in one preseason and have stayed there since.

I think it's more that good teams tend to play finals, better teams tend to play more finals. Not that playing finals in and of themselves are necessarily the driver of improvement.

 

[Beerfish]

Carlton is a good example as well; had no real finals experience to speak of, won all the way to a PF last year, then now armed with 'finals experience' have fallen back down the ladder.

But boy does that PF trophy look awesome in the cabinet.

 

[faible]

But boy does that PF trophy look awesome in the cabinet.

Absolutely gorgeous next to pre-season Premership trophies

 

[JayJ20]

Carlton is a good example as well; had no real finals experience to speak of, won all the way to a PF last year, then now armed with 'finals experience' have fallen back down the ladder.

We've been a mid-table side for a long time that is usually the worst or second worst side to make finals if we do so. Despite regularly making finals over the last 20 years it hasn't really done us any good because we're simply not a very good side to begin with.

Brisbane went from bottom 4 to top 4 in one preseason and have stayed there since.

I think it's more that good teams tend to play finals, better teams tend to play more finals. Not that playing finals in and of themselves are necessarily the driver of improvement.

Carlton are a perfect example. Scraped past both finals to make it, but they don't know what sustained success looks like because they only played half a season last year.

Fremantle won a final two years ago and supposed to be better for it with finals experience yet they are still choking heading into finals because teams know they can beat them. They aren't any closer to being a premiership contender now than they were two years ago. St Kilda won a final in 2021, tumbled the year after, made a final last year, tumbled again. Bulldogs made a whole grand final 3 years ago and haven't won a final since. Not even close to being premiership contenders and they choked yet again to a lowly side.

I'd rather us make it when we're able to comfortably make finals over at least a 3-4 year period. Otherwise, the only thing a finals appearance does is hinder our draft position.