Conspiracy Theory The Russia-Ukraine War

[faible]

You can reciprocate, but if you don't as in the cowardly case of others I have on ignore, do not reply to, tag or post about me.

lol. Classic Bluey.

 

[faible]

Just because you put people on ignore doesn't mean they have to put you on ignore. The fact you feel the need to announce that you are putting people on ignore is itself hilarious, made better that you think they should do what you say.

You're the coward.

There's some joke here about him drinking a cup of concrete to harden up I'm sure.

 

[bourbons]

Only cause I eventually get around to reading my notifications and find Owen on the bus goes whah, whah, whah, all day long.

So I'll fix that by putting you on ignore.

You can reciprocate, but if you don't as in the cowardly case of others I have on ignore, do not reply to, tag or post about me.

Mate, sounds like you need to just find yourself a nice comfy echo chamber and be done with it.

Surely RT has a forum somewhere.

 

[bourbons]

That's strange, I thought you were on ignore for abuse from years ago as well.

Do those things expire? I'll fix it.

You've definitely got who the coward is wrong, but why am I not surprised.

You think me calling out and pushing back against a litany of personal attacks or idiotic trolling from posters, until I eventually put them on ignore is cowardly.

When actually tagging and replying to my posts, knowing I won't reply isn't just cowardly, it's being a serial pest and harrassment.

No, its the pretending that posts problematic to your worldview just don't exist and refusing to engage with simple direct questions thats the cowardly part.

But you know that.

 

[Werewolf]

Are you a spokesperson for the MIC?

Well I work for a defence company - might be the closest to being that spokesperson! "We" are doing well from this war

Meanwhile both Russia and Ukraine are losing and their respective allies won't give them what it takes to win the war

 

[BlueE]

 

[faible]

Trump would certainly have advocated for a solution where Ukraine just cedes all the land Russia wanted I'm sure.

 

[Nothing]

Trump would certainly have advocated for a solution where Ukraine just cedes all the land Russia wanted I'm sure.

In return for a few dozen Trump hotels in Russia.

 

[Werewolf]

Trump would certainly have advocated for a solution where Ukraine just cedes all the land Russia wanted I'm sure.

Or more likely, the invasion wouldn't have happened at all

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Or more likely, the invasion wouldn't have happened at all

How does that work?

 

[BlueE]

Or more likely, the invasion wouldn't have happened at all

True.

Werewolf "Voted best moderator on BigFooty in 2021"

 

[Werewolf]

How does that work?

No one can say for sure and at the end of the day, Putin should be punished for starting this war, BUT it probably could've been prevented with sensible diplomacy. Look at how we (Australia) treat Indonesia - and we don't even share a land border!

Key points from this article: (1) There was a lull in the fighting in Donbas from 2016 to 2020. (2) The Russian troop buildup began shortly after Trump left office, (3) Russian security demands of December 2021 were rejected by NATO (i.e. America)

Prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ukraine (which is/was Russia's 2nd strongest individual neighbour by land) has been exploited by foreign powers to erode Russian military power - several US politicians have openly admitted this. Sadly, the Ukrainians have been the biggest victims here. In principle of course each country should have self determination, but a small country without nuclear weapons cannot afford to antagonise a powerful but paranoid neighbour. It's basic diplomacy and I find it mind boggling how the last decade has played out.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

No one can say for sure and at the end of the day, Putin should be punished for starting this war, BUT it probably could've been prevented with sensible diplomacy. Look at how we (Australia) treat Indonesia - and we don't even share a land border!

Key points from this article: (1) There was a lull in the fighting in Donbas from 2016 to 2020. (2) The Russian troop buildup began shortly after Trump left office, (3) Russian security demands of December 2021 were rejected by NATO (i.e. America)

Prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ukraine (which is/was Russia's 2nd strongest individual neighbour by land) has been exploited by foreign powers to erode Russian military power - several US politicians have openly admitted this. Sadly, the Ukrainians have been the biggest victims here. In principle of course each country should have self determination, but a small country without nuclear weapons cannot afford to antagonise a powerful but paranoid neighbour. It's basic diplomacy and I find it mind boggling how the last decade has played out.

All fair and reasonable. The only exception I take to this is the implication that Trump would have prevented the Russian invasion. I realise that Trump supporters want (or pretend) to believe it, but they also want to believe lots of things about Trump that aren't true.

 

[Jamolad]

No one can say for sure and at the end of the day, Putin should be punished for starting this war, BUT it probably could've been prevented with sensible diplomacy. Look at how we (Australia) treat Indonesia - and we don't even share a land border!

Key points from this article: (1) There was a lull in the fighting in Donbas from 2016 to 2020. (2) The Russian troop buildup began shortly after Trump left office, (3) Russian security demands of December 2021 were rejected by NATO (i.e. America)

Prelude to the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ukraine (which is/was Russia's 2nd strongest individual neighbour by land) has been exploited by foreign powers to erode Russian military power - several US politicians have openly admitted this. Sadly, the Ukrainians have been the biggest victims here. In principle of course each country should have self determination, but a small country without nuclear weapons cannot afford to antagonise a powerful but paranoid neighbour. It's basic diplomacy and I find it mind boggling how the last decade has played out.

By "antagonise", you're saying Ukraine provoked Russia by trying to resist their "powerful but paranoid neighbour" forcibly occupying regions?

Using your analogy, you live next door to someone with lots of weapons and mental health issues who has a history of being a total shitcampaigner, so much so that there is a group of people in your neighbourhood that have agreed that if that shitcampaigner (or any other shitcampaigner) was to try to attack either of them and their property, then they would all come to each other's aid.

You are not part of that agreement - you actually used to be good friends with your neighbour, even gave them some weapons many years ago on promise they would never use those weapons against you.

But then few years back your mental neighbour took over your shed and since then has been trying to perform a home invasion (but for only a few bedrooms on the eastern side of your house, not the whole house).

You're saying you would not 'antagonise' the mental person by trying to find out if there is a way you can join that group of people that have banded together to protect each other from shitcampaigners like your neighbour? For fear of your neighbour doing what - trying to take more than just the few bedrooms they have been attempting to take from you for years?

Russia wanted security guarantees in December 2021 that Ukraine would not join NATO.

What lead to Ukraine's desire to join NATO? Russia's shitcampaignerery from 2014 until December 2021?

And again, if this was all about NATO then it has been a spectacular fail by Putin, as it has resulted in NATO expansion along Russia's border.

 

[Werewolf]

By "antagonise", you're saying Ukraine provoked Russia by trying to resist their "powerful but paranoid neighbour" forcibly occupying regions?

Using your analogy, you live next door to someone with lots of weapons and mental health issues who has a history of being a total shitcampaigner, so much so that there is a group of people in your neighbourhood that have agreed that if that shitcampaigner (or any other shitcampaigner) was to try to attack either of them and their property, then they would all come to each other's aid.

You are not part of that agreement - you actually used to be good friends with your neighbour, even gave them some weapons many years ago on promise they would never use those weapons against you.

But then few years back your mental neighbour took over your shed and since then has been trying to perform a home invasion (but for only a few bedrooms on the eastern side of your house, not the whole house).

You're saying you would not 'antagonise' the mental person by trying to find out if there is a way you can join that group of people that have banded together to protect each other from shitcampaigners like your neighbour? For fear of your neighbour doing what - trying to take more than just the few bedrooms they have been attempting to take from you for years?

Your mentally ill neighbour could be arrested once they took over your shed. It's hard to reign in a big country that has nuclear weapons. Some little countries are protected by water (Australia, NZ, Taiwan), others are protected by nuclear weapons (Pakistan, North Korea). Ukraine, having no such protection, had to jump into a trench (CSTO or NATO) but they stayed in "no man's land". This is what I have trouble understanding - not to diminish the blatant war of aggression from Putin & friends.

I think Ukraine had a 100% chance to avoid war by joining CSTO; Belarus and Kazakhstan seem to be in no danger of invasion. Sure you could argue that Russia practically controls Belarus, but at least they aren't being turned into a smoking pile of rubble.

Russia wanted security guarantees in December 2021 that Ukraine would not join NATO.

What lead to Ukraine's desire to join NATO? Russia's shitcampaignerery from 2014 until December 2021?

And again, if this was all about NATO then it has been a spectacular fail by Putin, as it has resulted in NATO expansion along Russia's border.

Agree. Russia (including through the Russian Empire and Soviet days) has often been their own worst enemy

 

[BlueE]

Professor Mearsheimer talks about what could happen if Ukraine loses support from the West; why Israeli retaliation towards Gaza has shown evidence of war crimes and what Israel is prepared to do in order to protect the Jewish state.

 

[sdfc]

By "antagonise", you're saying Ukraine provoked Russia by trying to resist their "powerful but paranoid neighbour" forcibly occupying regions?

Using your analogy, you live next door to someone with lots of weapons and mental health issues who has a history of being a total shitcampaigner, so much so that there is a group of people in your neighbourhood that have agreed that if that shitcampaigner (or any other shitcampaigner) was to try to attack either of them and their property, then they would all come to each other's aid.

You are not part of that agreement - you actually used to be good friends with your neighbour, even gave them some weapons many years ago on promise they would never use those weapons against you.

But then few years back your mental neighbour took over your shed and since then has been trying to perform a home invasion (but for only a few bedrooms on the eastern side of your house, not the whole house).

You're saying you would not 'antagonise' the mental person by trying to find out if there is a way you can join that group of people that have banded together to protect each other from shitcampaigners like your neighbour? For fear of your neighbour doing what - trying to take more than just the few bedrooms they have been attempting to take from you for years?

Russia wanted security guarantees in December 2021 that Ukraine would not join NATO.

What lead to Ukraine's desire to join NATO? Russia's shitcampaignerery from 2014 until December 2021?

And again, if this was all about NATO then it has been a spectacular fail by Putin, as it has resulted in NATO expansion along Russia's border.

What if most of the occupants of those rooms would rather be a member of the neighbour's household?

 

[BlueE]

What if most of the occupants of those rooms would rather be a member of the neighbour's household?

You mean the 20% that had strong Russian heritage and language and were being attacked and murdered by mainly neo nazi Ukrainian fighters?

That Putin through the Minsk agreement was prepared to support neutrality, but Ukraine and their supporters were not serious in honouring?

 

[BlueE]

Ukraine Doesn't Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin

Dec. 27, 2023

Credit...Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

By Serge Schmemann
Mr. Schmemann is a member of the editorial board.

"The new report in the NYT that Russia is quietly signaling a readiness to freeze the war in Ukraine is both suspicious and tantalizing."

"The caveats are many: An armistice would leave Putin with around one fifth of Ukrainian territory ..."

"Recovered territory is not the only measure of victory in this war. A painful reality check shows the 600-mile-long Ukrainian-Russian front in a figurative and literal freeze, draining Ukrainian resources and lives without much prospect for change in the foreseeable future."

Most behind a paywall, unless someone has access.

Opinion | Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin (Published 2023)

Putin is not trustworthy, but if he turns out to be serious, Ukraine should not pass up an opportunity to end the bloodshed.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Zidane98]

What if most of the occupants of those rooms would rather be a member of the neighbour's household?

Then they can leave the household and join the neighbours household.

Unsurprisingly very few want to become part of international parish state Russia run by a crazed modern day Hitler.

 

[bourbons]

Professor Mearsheimer talks about what could happen if Ukraine loses support from the West; why Israeli retaliation towards Gaza has shown evidence of war crimes and what Israel is prepared to do in order to protect the Jewish state.

Mearsheimer re-calibrating slightly from "Putin will never invade Ukraine" to "Putin didn't want the war", smooth

 

[bourbons]

What if most of the occupants of those rooms would rather be a member of the neighbour's household?

"Most"

Most people in separatist-held areas of Donbas prefer reintegration with Ukraine – new survey

What do the people of the Donbas want for their future?

theconversation.com

 

[Zidane98]

"Most"

Most people in separatist-held areas of Donbas prefer reintegration with Ukraine – new survey

What do the people of the Donbas want for their future?

theconversation.com

And the very few vatniks that genuinely want to be part of an international pariah state can easily drive for an hour or so and be in paradise (Russia).

But that isn't what Putler wants. His objectives in Donbass have always been to undermine Ukraine. Drain it financially. Use it to delay / prevent EU / NATO integration of Ukraine.

The people of Donbas are absolutely bottom of the priority list for Vlad. It's a place of misery & death since Putler invaded and that's the way he wants it. A happy population in Donbass enjoying democracy is viewed as a threat to a modern day dictator.

 

[BlueE]

Or more likely, the invasion wouldn't have happened at all

Q Let's start with the news if we may about Ukraine because Zelinskyy was in Washington last night, pleading for a a $60 billion Aid package, which it looks as though is not going to be forthcoming. But President Joe Biden has reiterated his support for Ukraine. Are we at a stage now where American support for the Ukraine is starting to ebb, not just among some Republicans as people always like to say, but among Democrats and the political class?

Mearsheimer: "I think there's no question about that I think that up until the late summer most of the foreign policy establishment, most people in the foreign policy establishment in the United States, thought there was a good chance that Ukraine could win the war. Actually defeat the Russians inside of Ukraine. I think it's now clear that that's not the case. I think it's clear to almost

everybody that the balance of power has shifted in a marked way in the Russians favor and independent of this Aid package, the Russians are on the march and there's all sorts of reasons to think that the Ukrainians are going to have a very difficult time stemming the tide. So I think this overall pessimism independent of the aid package has contributed to the pessimism here in the United States and the unwillingness of people to Fork out huge amounts of money to Ukraine."

Q Would you then argue that essentially the Western push to help Ukraine has been futile?

Mearsheimer: "I think there's no no question. I've argued for a long time that we are leading Ukraine down the Primrose Path.

I think that pushing to bring Ukraine into NATO was a huge mistake and Putin made it clear when we announced in April 2008 that we were going to pursue that policy that he would destroy Ukraine before he would let that happen.

And in fact that is what happened, is happening. Ukraine is already lost a sub substantial portion of its territory and I believe will lose more and it will end up as a dysfunctional rump State.

So this is a disaster for Ukraine. I believe if we hadn't pushed forward to bring Ukraine into NATO ,that Ukraine would probably be intact today. There would be no war and I even believe Ukraine would still continue to control Crimea."

Q: But the war hasn't gone brilliantly for Vladimir Putin I think that's fair to say. You know it if there had been a peace deal in February March 2022 do you think Putin would have h ad had a stronger hand then or a weaker hand?

Mearsheimer: "Putin did not want this war he went to Great Lengths before February 24th 2022 when the war started to head it off at the past. He wanted to come up with a diplomatic solution and then shortly after the war broke out in February he was negotiating with the Ukrainians to work out a deal and at that point in time he was not talking about incorporating any Ukrainian territory except for Crimea which had already been annexed into Russia.

All he really cared about it's quite clear from all the reports of the people who are involved in the discussions was NATO expansion into Ukraine. He wanted a neutral Ukraine and if he had gotten a neutral Ukraine, this is right after the war started, I believe there's a good chance the war could have been shut down.

But it was the Americans and the British who moved in and basically told Zelinskyy that he had to walk away from the negotiations, because we believed that we could win the war. We, meaning Ukraine, plus the West and in 2022 it actually looked like that might
be the case. But now it's quite clear that 2023 has been a disastrous year for the Ukrainians. If anything, the Russians will win the war."

Q Did you ever think, then you said it looked as though Ukraine might be able to win the war? Did you ever think or did you ever say that you thought that Ukraine might be able to win the war in 2022?

Mearsheimer: "No. I didn't think that Ukraine would ever win the war. I think it was just a question of when uh Putin decided to mobilize Russia and get serious about fighting the war. The fact is that he invaded Ukraine with a very small force. I argue that he had at the most 190,000 troops. There are a number of smart people who pay very careful attention to what happened during The
Invasion who argued that he had at the most 100,000 troops.

But this was a small military force and of course he ran into real resistance, or the Russians ran into real resistance inside of Ukraine, because the Ukrainian Army had been trained and armed by the West. This was a quite formidable fighting force.

So the Ukrainians stayed the the Russians, but it was all a matter of time when the Russians would respond to this stalemate that developed in the summer of 2022 and mobilize many more troops than Ukraine could mobilize and in fact in late September the Russians mobilized 300,000 troops and then over the course of 2023, that's this year, roughly 420,000 men have joined the Russian army so the Russian army is growing bigger and bigger and at the same time the Ukrainian Army is suffering enormous casualties and it had a much smaller Manpower pool to draw from to begin with.

So in 2022 when the Russians hadn't fully mobilized it looked like Ukraine might win but if you factored in mobilization on the Russian side that was not a realistic belief."

Q Are you not and forgive me if this is impertinent, are you not um slightly underplaying the extent of the Russian invasion at the
beginning of the war I mean they did menace Kiev. it did look very much as though they were intending to take Kiev. Do you think that was just a bluff?

Mearsheimer: "I don't think they could have taken Kiev if they wanted, they just didn't have enough troops Kiev is a city that has roughly three million people. You know they had tens of thousands of troops the Russians did in the Kiev area. There's no way they were going to quickly take that. It's quite clear that what the Russians were interested in doing, or to put it more specifically what Putin was interested in doing was coercing the Ukrainians into coming to the negotiating table and cutting a deal on Ukraine joining NATO.

He was not interested in conquering Ukraine or conquering the rest of Ukraine. As I like to say it's the conventional wisdom in the West that Putin was bent on conquering all of Ukraine and making it part of a greater Russia. There is no way that he could have done this with 190,000 troops. If he was interested in doing that again as I often point out, when the Germans invaded Poland on September 1st 1939, they went in with you know more than a million troops.

He would have needed an army that was Far bigger than the one that went into Ukraine in February 2022. If he was bent on conquering the country and incorporating into Russia."

 

[sdfc]

"Most"

Most people in separatist-held areas of Donbas prefer reintegration with Ukraine – new survey

What do the people of the Donbas want for their future?

theconversation.com

It's no secret that numerous opinion polls showed a majority of Crimeans wanted to join Russia. As for Donbas, a ceasefire ahead of UN supervised elections would be the way to go. Call Putin's bluff. But that would take diplomacy and no one is interested in that.