Conspiracy Theory The Russia-Ukraine War

[LuvtheKangas]

Ukraine still having big problems with corruption.
It's like it never went away.
Ukraine’s security service arrests five people accused of $40m arms fraud

Zelenskyy needs to fight corruption like he’s fighting Putin

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/graft-accusations-dog-top-zelenskiy-aides-2023-09-19/
View attachment 1896896

Slow learners or they just can't help themselves

You're right. The solution is to allow an aggressive neighbour to attack and take some of the land, whilst killing thousands of people.

Good thinking (of course, if followed through, there would be wars all over Europe, Africa and Asia).

 

[bourbons]

Ukraine still having big problems with corruption.
It's like it never went away.
Ukraine’s security service arrests five people accused of $40m arms fraud

Zelenskyy needs to fight corruption like he’s fighting Putin

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/graft-accusations-dog-top-zelenskiy-aides-2023-09-19/
View attachment 1896896

Slow learners or they just can't help themselves

Now do Russia

 

[rank and file]

Now do Russia

The BRICS are getting bigger
34 Countries Look to Join BRICS Alliance After Saudi Arabia’s Entry

 

[bourbons]

The BRICS are getting bigger
34 Countries Look to Join BRICS Alliance After Saudi Arabia’s Entry

Isn't this my line?

A real who's who of corruption-free reputable world players there.

 

[Werewolf]

Last month I came across the channel of Lt. Col Daniel Davis (retired) - best analyst on the Russia-Ukraine war I've seen so far:

https://www.youtube.com/@DanielDavisDeepDive

A lot of people fall into the mental trap of thinking Ukraine will win because Russia is bad, but war doesn't work that way.

The current western strategy is folly. They could win the war for Ukraine by sending a million NATO troops over there. This would be a dangerous escalation... and won't happen because America only likes to beat up militias and weak countries these days

Or simply pull the plug on funding and tell Ukraine to seek the most favourable peace deal possible. Also not a great option, but realistically Ukraine lacks the manpower to reclaim their lost territory (and would lose heaps of troops in the process).

 

[Malifice]

Last month I came across the channel of Lt. Col Daniel Davis (retired) - best analyst on the Russia-Ukraine war I've seen so far:

https://www.youtube.com/@DanielDavisDeepDive

A lot of people fall into the mental trap of thinking Ukraine will win because Russia is bad, but war doesn't work that way.

Ukraine cant win. I doubt anyone thinks anything otherwise.

The question is can they reclaim their lost eastern provinces and Crimea. I dont think they can without significant air power, which they dont have.

The current western strategy is folly. They could win the war for Ukraine by sending a million NATO troops over there.

That way leads to WW3.

NATO is a defensive alliance only (barring Yugoslavia).

 

[Mofra]

Economics will end the war, not bullets. It seems likely there will be war while Putin remains in power.

Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win

Western military support for Ukraine is more important than ever.

theconversation.com

 

[Malifice]

Economics will end the war, not bullets. It seems likely there will be war while Putin remains in power.

Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win

Western military support for Ukraine is more important than ever.

theconversation.com

Key take away from that article:

an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.

This is Putins blind spot. He's so ingrained with his Cold war mindset seeing the US and NATO as the enemy, he totally misses the real threat for Russia on his Eastern border.

China has been careful not to **** with Russia as it went past her militarily and economically.

That won't last.

 

[Zidane98]

Ukraine cant win. I doubt anyone thinks anything otherwise.

The question is can they reclaim their lost eastern provinces and Crimea. I dont think they can without significant air power, which they dont have.



That way leads to WW3.

NATO is a defensive alliance only (barring Yugoslavia).

Russia can't win. So far, Putin has done nothing but cause irreversible harm to Russia. The only question now is how much he is prepared to wreck the state of Russia in pursuit of his fascist ideology. Putin can't travel to a lot of places because of an ICC arrest warrant. Russian aviation is in crisis, natural resources income is in freefall. Russia has even had to use gold reserves to pay Iran for military equipment. This absolutely is not sustainable for Russia long term - ie over 5 years. Russia has no supporters prepared to back it where Ukraine has support from the EU, and eventually the US when the vatniks in congress are neutralised again.

The war ends when the price to continue it simply becomes that high for Russia that not even a dictator like Putin can ensure it continues.

Failing that, eventually, the nations threatenedmost by Russian fascism - Baltics, Finland, Poland / Romania will be the ones that send troops into Ukranian territory to defend Ukranian territory as it is in the security interests of all those nations that Putin's dream of USSR 2.0 lite does not come to fruition. These troops will be defending Ukranian territory only - they won't enter Russian territory. NATO wouldn't be involved here unless Russai decided to attack those nations directly. This would only be an absolute last resort if Putin continues a pointless war long term for years on end.

 

[Malifice]

Russia can't win.

Yes they can, and they already have what they want.

Ukraine has no way of reclaiming the annexed oblasts, and even if they somehow pulled it off, they're basically all full of ethnic Russians now, most of whom want to be in Russia, so all they'd end up with is an insurgency.

It's a stalemate at present, and the only side capable of mounting a counter offensive (barring a dramatic escalation by NATO on behalf of Ukraine) is Russia.

Not that they really want to. Like I said, they have what they came for. But they wouldn't be opposed to capturing Kiev and implementing a pro Russian regime in the place of Ukraine's present leadership.

 

[Zidane98]

Yes they can, and they already have what they want.

Ukraine has no way of reclaiming the annexed oblasts, and even if they somehow pulled it off, they're basically all full of ethnic Russians now, most of whom want to be in Russia, so all they'd end up with is an insurgency.

It's a stalemate at present, and the only side capable of mounting a counter offensive (barring a dramatic escalation by NATO on behalf of Ukraine) is Russia.

Not that they really want to. Like I said, they have what they came for. But they wouldn't be opposed to capturing Kiev and implementing a pro Russian regime in the place of Ukraine's present leadership.

We've been over this, they don't. They've lost control of the Black Sea since the full scale invasion has begun. The Black Sea fleet's been decimated. And Ukraine have managed to do it without even having a navy. Russia has relocated most of its fleet out of Sevastopol as it simply is no longer safe there. It never will be either as long as Putin continues his invasion. This is pretty much a guarantee. Russia has clearly gone backwards since the start of its invasion in terms of the Black Sea. Ukraine are now regularly taking out Russian military aircraft over the Sea of Azov / Black Sea with SAM missiles.


Ukraine now operates maritime assets with immunity into & out of Odessa.


If Russia wants control of the Black Sea back they are going to have to withdraw completely from Ukraine, agree peace with Ukraine (impossible with Putin in charge) and attempt to restore the 2042 Sevastopol lease (unlikely, Ukraine will just view that as an attempt by Russia to subjugate it again).


We've also been over Ukraine reclaiming annexed territory. They won't be doing it militarily except in the case of the Bucharest 9 group of nations eventually stepping in (this wouldn't happen unless the war continued on for 5 years +). Ukraine gets its territory back when the price Russia pays becomes too high and the country becomes sick of being a pariah state / larger version of North Korea with natural resource income smashed and financial reserves exhausted.

Russia knows their annexation is never going to be realised legally. It's a non starter long term, it is about as valid as the Nazi annexation of occupied France and will end up in the same way. It's not like Ukraine declared war on it or anyythiing and Russia had to fight back to protect itself. Russia has pretty much zero support internateionally apart from Syria, North Korea & Belarus which are rightly treated with derision.

Everyonw knows Putin invaded for territorial expansion and his fascist ideologies of recreating a new USSR / great Russian empire.

 

[Mofra]

Underlying Putin's aim is population - his first activities in 1999/2000 were predominantly aimed at incentivizing Russians to have more children. The 91-94 economic crisis had a huge under population facet to it and Putin has been pretty open about wanting Russia to become far more populous.

Given the number of casualties and the number of Russians of fighting age who have fled the country, some economists put the labor-shortage in the realm of 5 million people. It's a long term disaster for Russia and whoever Putin's successor is will have an impossible task in rebuilding the country.

 

[Zidane98]

Telling interview from Putin in 08.

 

[Malifice]

We've been over this, they don't. They've lost control of the Black Sea since the full scale invasion has begun. The Black Sea fleet's been decimated. And Ukraine have managed to do it without even having a navy. Russia has relocated most of its fleet out of Sevastopol as it simply is no longer safe there. It never will be either as long as Putin continues his invasion. This is pretty much a guarantee. Russia has clearly gone backwards since the start of its invasion in terms of the Black Sea. Ukraine are now regularly taking out Russian military aircraft over the Sea of Azov / Black Sea with SAM missiles.

If Ukraine do anything stupid like target Sevastopol, the Russians will stop holding back.

At the moment, they're happy with holding the captured territories, and defending them. They've also been seeking to avoid excessive civilian casualties (unlike the Seppos in Iraq, or the Isrealies in Gaza).

They have enough firepower to literally carpet bomb entire towns into oblivion. They're launching the odd rocket here or there. It's hardly the sort of overwhelming force they could bring to bear if they wanted to.

If Russia wants control of the Black Sea back they are going to have to withdraw completely from Ukraine, agree peace with Ukraine (impossible with Putin in charge) and attempt to restore the 2042 Sevastopol lease (unlikely, Ukraine will just view that as an attempt by Russia to subjugate it again).

Putin is going to be in charge for at least another 12 years (unless he dies).

We've also been over Ukraine reclaiming annexed territory. They won't be doing it militarily except in the case of the Bucharest 9 group of nations eventually stepping in (this wouldn't happen unless the war continued on for 5 years +). Ukraine gets its territory back when the price Russia pays becomes too high and the country becomes sick of being a pariah state / larger version of North Korea with natural resource income smashed and financial reserves exhausted.

The occupied territory in question is literally full of ethnic Russians, who speak Russian, and voted to become part of Russia (although this referendum is not to be trusted).

Would the Germans in the Sudentenland (who overwhelmingly supported annexation by the Nazis) have been happy if Hitler gave the territory back to the Czech Republic?

Sudetenland - Wikipedia

And what would the Czech Republic have done with a million ethnic German pro Nazis inside its borders (we know what they did after the war about the issue and that was 'ethnic cleansing').

Assume Russia pulls out of the annexed oblasts (which will not happen). What then?

The only way similar conflicts were resolved in WW2 and the aftermath in Poland and the Czech Republic, and in places like Yugoslavia was literal ethnic cleansing.

How do you propose to resolve the fact that a significant part of Eastern Ukraine (now claimed by Russia) is overwhelmingly ethnic Russians who speak Russian, and want to be part of Russia?

 

[Zidane98]

If Ukraine do anything stupid like target Sevastopol, the Russians will stop holding back.

At the moment, they're happy with holding the captured territories, and defending them. They've also been seeking to avoid excessive civilian casualties (unlike the Seppos in Iraq, or the Isrealies in Gaza).

They have enough firepower to literally carpet bomb entire towns into oblivion. They're launching the odd rocket here or there. It's hardly the sort of overwhelming force they could bring to bear if they wanted to.



Putin is going to be in charge for at least another 12 years (unless he dies).



The occupied territory in question is literally full of ethnic Russians, who speak Russian, and voted to become part of Russia (although this referendum is not to be trusted).

Would the Germans in the Sudentenland (who overwhelmingly supported annexation by the Nazis) have been happy if Hitler gave the territory back to the Czech Republic?

Sudetenland - Wikipedia

And what would the Czech Republic have done with a million ethnic German pro Nazis inside its borders (we know what they did after the war about the issue and that was 'ethnic cleansing').

Assume Russia pulls out of the annexed oblasts (which will not happen). What then?

The only way similar conflicts were resolved in WW2 and the aftermath in Poland and the Czech Republic, and in places like Yugoslavia was literal ethnic cleansing.

How do you propose to resolve the fact that a significant part of Eastern Ukraine (now claimed by Russia) is overwhelmingly ethnic Russians who speak Russian, and want to be part of Russia?

This is nonsense and Russian propaganda. Also what about the Ukranian speaking population of Belgorod? Under this theory surely Russia must return Belgorod to its rightful owner of Ukraine right?

2014 Do survey results





And the 1991 independence referendums showed the following results in occupied territories:

Ukrainian Independence Referendum

Ukraine. Independence Referendum. 1 December 1991 Ukraine held a referendum on the Act of Declaration of Independence on 1 December 1991. An overwhelming majority of 92.3% of voters approved…

soviethistory.msu.edu

Occupied territories voted yes to independence from ranges of 60% (Crimea) to 90% (Kherson)


There are plenty of Russian speakers living in non occupied territories of Ukraine, some may even want to be part of Russia.


Those that really want to be part of a dictatorship of course can leave Ukraine and make the short drive to Russia.


There are no issues once Russia leaves, as there was none before until Russia invaded because Putin was salty Ukraine no longer wanted to be a Russian puppet state. Russian speakers and Ukranian speakers will continue to live together and the country as a whole can get on with life as a European state.

 

[Zidane98]

As for Russia avoiding excessive civilian casualties - the residents of Mariuopol disagree.


Most estimates are up to 100,000 civilian deaths going off satellite imagery on grave diggins in and around the city. We won't know the full extent of Russia's horrific genocide there until they withdraw (similar to Bucha but on a much larger scale).

 

[Malifice]

This is nonsense and Russian propaganda.

No, it's not.

Demographics of Crimea - Wikipedia

Crimea, majority Russian (pre annexation).

Luhansk Oblast - Wikipedia

Donetsk Oblast - Wikipedia

Luhansk and Donetsk, 40 percent Russian (pre annexation, likely more now).

Kherson Oblast - Wikipedia

Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Wikipedia

Kherson and Zaporizhian, 14 and 25 percent Russian respectively (pre annexation, likely more now)

-----

What happens to those ethnic Russians, who speak Russian, and many of whom want to be part of Russia?

 

[Malifice]

As for Russia avoiding excessive civilian casualties - the residents of Mariuopol disagree.


Most estimates are up to 100,000 civilian deaths going off satellite imagery on grave diggins in and around the city.

Wut? The city only houses 120,000 people.

 

[Zidane98]

No, it's not.

Demographics of Crimea - Wikipedia

Crimea, majority Russian (pre annexation).

Luhansk Oblast - Wikipedia

Donetsk Oblast - Wikipedia

Luhansk and Donetsk, 40 percent Russian (pre annexation, likely more now).

Kherson Oblast - Wikipedia

Zaporizhzhia Oblast - Wikipedia

Kherson and Zaporizhian, 14 and 25 percent Russian respectively (pre annexation, likely more now)

-----

What happens to those ethnic Russians, who speak Russian, and many of whom want to be part of Russia?

You're now actively promoting Russian lies here, either wiluly or naively.



Russian speakers are still Ukranian citizens. They aren't Russian people. Under the statistics you quoted here Zelensky would be one of the supposed people who want to join Russia simply because he is an ethnic Russian speaker.


I just showed you the independent survey results, the majority do not want to be part of Russia. The majority of Donbass residents driven out by invading Russian gangsters since 2014 relocated within Ukraine too. Including Russian speakers.


And the overwhelming majority of Eastern Ukraine resoundingly rejected being part of a Russian empire in 1991.


No area is "majority Russian" in Ukraine. That's a lie spread by Putin. Eastern Ukraine has been and always will be Ukranian - right back to the time that Russia launched an ethnic cleansing program to resettle Russians there at the expense of native Ukraniians in the late 1800 / early 1900s.


Stop promoting Russian lies.

 

[Zidane98]

Wut? The city only houses 120,000 people.

Not to mention surrounding areas.

100,000 Ukrainian civilian deaths: Shocking toll of Putin’s bloody invasion

Chief prosecutor says total number of dead could be more than 10 times official figures as country marks first anniversary of invasion

www.independent.co.uk

Some grim reading for you. Anyone who dared speak Ukranian or even suggest that the Russians should leave was subject to torture and summary execution.

 

[Malifice]

You're now actively promoting Russian lies here, either wiluly or naively.

Russian speakers are still Ukranian citizens. They aren't Russian people.

No those numbers I gave were people who identify as ethnic Russians.

Go back and read again.

I just showed you the independent survey results, the majority do not want to be part of Russia. The majority of Donbass residents driven out by invading Russian gangsters since 2014 relocated within Ukraine too. Including Russian speakers.

The majority of Donbas residents are currently ethnically Russian, and speak Russian. Before the annexation they were at 40 percent of the population; currently (with Ukrainians fleeing, and Russian soldiers in the province) the percentage of Russians would likely outnumber Ukrainians.

In 2014 an overwhelming majority of people in the Dobas voted for independence/ to leave Ukraine.

2014 Donbas status referendums - Wikipedia

While the referendum was likely corrupt (as was the one recently held by the Russians in 2022) there is without any doubt a significant number of ethnic Russians, who speak Russian, and want to be part of Russia, living alongside ethnic Ukrainians, who speak Ukrainian, and probably hate the ****ing Russians now.

For the third time, what happens to the pro Russian ethnic Russians who make up around half the population of those oblasts, should Ukraine somehow recover those annexed oblasts by force?

Short of ethnic cleansing, you're going to be left with an insurgency, and Yugoslavia 2.0 (so ethnic cleansing).

 

[bourbons]

You're now actively promoting Russian lies here, either wiluly or naively.



Russian speakers are still Ukranian citizens. They aren't Russian people. Under the statistics you quoted here Zelensky would be one of the supposed people who want to join Russia simply because he is an ethnic Russian speaker.


I just showed you the independent survey results, the majority do not want to be part of Russia. The majority of Donbass residents driven out by invading Russian gangsters since 2014 relocated within Ukraine too. Including Russian speakers.


And the overwhelming majority of Eastern Ukraine resoundingly rejected being part of a Russian empire in 1991.


No area is "majority Russian" in Ukraine. That's a lie spread by Putin. Eastern Ukraine has been and always will be Ukranian - right back to the time that Russia launched an ethnic cleansing program to resettle Russians there at the expense of native Ukraniians in the late 1800 / early 1900s.


Stop promoting Russian lies.

Yeah the "Russian speaking" thing is a bit of a furphy.

There's data around suggesting a majority in separatist-held areas preferred to go with Ukraine even as late as 2019.

Most people in separatist-held areas of Donbas prefer reintegration with Ukraine – new survey

What do the people of the Donbas want for their future?

theconversation.com

 

[Malifice]

Yeah the "Russian speaking" thing is a bit of a furphy.

There's data around suggesting a majority in separatist-held areas preferred to go with Ukraine even as late as 2019.

Most people in separatist-held areas of Donbas prefer reintegration with Ukraine – new survey

What do the people of the Donbas want for their future?

theconversation.com

Dude, that survey clearly states that 31 percent of respondents surveyed in Donbas wanted independence as a separate autonomous region in Ukraine, another 18 percent wanted to join Russia outright, and 27 percent wanted to join Russia, but with autonomy.

Only 24 percent favored remaining part of Ukraine without autonomy.

45 percent of people surveyed wanted to join Russia in some form or another, 31 percent wanted autonomy (but to remain Ukrainian) and only 24 percent wanted to remain part of Ukraine without autonomy.

That supports my argument, and if anything, it makes the two Referendums in 2014 and even the 2022 referendum look more legit.

Even IF Ukraine can somehow breach Russian minefields and trenches, covered by a shitload of rocket artillery in an offensive (conducted without any air power) - and they got absolutely smashed last time they tried this - and somehow pushed Russia back across the Russian border, they still have the issue that the annexed oblasts overwhelmingly don't want to remain part of Ukraine without some form of autonomy, and nearly half of the people that live there flat out want to join Russia.

Even of those that do want to remain part of Ukraine, they're living in cities where nearly half the population want to join Russia, who they probably ****ing despise right now thanks to the invasion and annexation.

At a bare minimum that's an insurgency. Almost certainly it ends like things did in Yugoslavia or what happened to Germans living in Eastern Europe at the end of WW2:

During the later stages of World War II and the post-war period, Germans and Volksdeutsche fled and were expelled from various Eastern and Central European countries, including Czechoslovakia, and from the former German provinces of Lower and Upper Silesia, East Prussia, and the eastern parts of Brandenburg (Neumark) and Pomerania (Hinterpommern), which were annexed by Poland and the Soviet Union.

Flight and expulsion of Germans (1944–1950) - Wikipedia

If European history is anything to go by, it likely ends with ethnic cleansing.

 

[Exe Gesis]

 

[Malifice]

Mate that's a Russian bot Twitter account.

It's Pro Kremlin disinformation.

You need to step away from social media for a bit.