Tiger Family World Cup Cricket Chat (Opposition Welcome)

[SunshineBoy]

I am pleased you posted that because it allows me to explain some subtleties of betting related corruption and cricket. It is not as I think you seem to be imagining it, though your view is based on a very common misconception. Say I know NZ are going to win. I don't know what odds they were pre match, let us say $4. Say I know they are going to win in advance, I back them for $1k and win $3k. And spend the day on the beach. Corruption in cricket once worked pretty much like that. Now there are massive and liquid in running markets where odds fluctuate every ball. The more times you can get odds fluctuations in a match when knowing the eventual result, if you know in advance play by play more or less, your $1k will make you many multiples higher than the $3k you make just by backing NZ pre match. So in a corrupt scenario, of course they will be looking for rallies from the losing team, these are worth huge money! Happy to explain this further if people want the boring detail of how you would back and lay your way to a massively positive book from the $1k starting bank.

So if an expert punter knew the result in advance, the low NZ score is a huge money maker, Jadeja-Dhoni stand a huge money maker, the Dhoni square cut 6 a decent money maker. And all the other things that make the odds fluctuate within the match.

Those pesky Indian bookies

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Do you bet on AFL?

Yes, I have been a very big AFL punter in the past relative to the size of AFL markets. At one point I had a big winning year and tried to smash the markets the next year, and got marmalised. I have found AFL difficult since about 2012, before then it was very very easy to win, and by extension to win big. In the years since it got difficult I would be ahead but not by much in relation to the size of my stakes. These days I would be pushing the boat out to have a $3k bet on an AFL match so there would be a lot of bigger punters than me.

 

[SunshineBoy]

Yes, I have been a very big AFL punter in the past relative to the size of AFL markets. At one point I had a big winning year and tried to smash the markets the next year, and got marmalised. I have found AFL difficult since about 2012, before then it was very very easy to win, and by extension to win big. In the years since it got difficult I would be ahead but not by much in relation to the size of my stakes. These days I would be pushing the boat out to have a $3k bet on an AFL match so there would be a lot of bigger punters than me.

And do you believe that the AFL is above board?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Listen mate p**s off with your “I’m smarter than everyone else” bulls**t. You’re just acting like a flog now

I doubt I am smarter than everyone else. But having watched, played, coached and studied cricket full time for the last 15 years, your average Joe who watches cricket would be pushing to have greater knowledge than I have about the sport. If they did I would be doing something seriously wrong.

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

Yes, I have been a very big AFL punter in the past relative to the size of AFL markets. At one point I had a big winning year and tried to smash the markets the next year, and got marmalised. I have found AFL difficult since about 2012, before then it was very very easy to win, and by extension to win big. In the years since it got difficult I would be ahead but not by much in relation to the size of my stakes. These days I would be pushing the boat out to have a $3k bet on an AFL match so there would be a lot of bigger punters than me.

Should get on Mick's Multi then, guaranteed win every week.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And do you believe that the AFL is above board?

That is a good question. I have never seen any substantial evidence of betting related corruption in AFL. Neither have I ever heard anyone suggest it. Eddie McGuire has come closest of anything I have come across to suggesting it when he said something along the lines of there could be integrity problems caused by players having links to criminal gangs etc. I have always discounted the possibility of wholesale corruption in AFL betting markets on the grounds the markets are barely big enough to be worth corrupting. Unless you have access to big losing accounts, you would struggle to get $50k on a result or line across all major bookies, and for $50-100k or whatever you could make from something like that you are going to have trouble paying people off and all the rest of it. Might be wrong but that is how I read AFL betting.

However, something became a lot tougher from 2012 onwards, in terms of being able to add up form and factors and bet pre match based on this. As I posted before up until then it was like separating a baby from candy. I am not sure what caused the change and I often see things that don't make a lot of sense to me but betting on footy from a TV screen you can see less of what matters than say in cricket for eg which is a much better tv sport as most of the action occurs within a 22 yard strip.

Do you think there is betting related corruption within AFL?

 

[Spacedog]

And do you believe that the AFL is above board?

I doubt any fixing happens in AFL, anything that you could spot fix like disposals, 1st goal etc doesn't have enough liquidity to make it worthwhile. Bribing the umpires would be the best way to do it but even then it's hard to get large sums of money down on AFL and that wouldn't guarantee anything

 

[SunshineBoy]

That is a good question. I have never seen any substantial evidence of betting related corruption in AFL. Neither have I ever heard anyone suggest it. Eddie McGuire has come closest of anything I have come across to suggesting it when he said something along the lines of there could be integrity problems caused by players having links to criminal gangs etc. I have always discounted the possibility of wholesale corruption in AFL betting markets on the grounds the markets are barely big enough to be worth corrupting. Unless you have access to big losing accounts, you would struggle to get $50k on a result or line across all major bookies, and for $50-100k or whatever you could make from something like that you are going to have trouble paying people off and all the rest of it. Might be wrong but that is how I read AFL betting.

However, something became a lot tougher from 2012 onwards, in terms of being able to add up form and factors and bet pre match based on this. As I posted before up until then it was like separating a baby from candy. I am not sure what caused the change and I often see things that don't make a lot of sense to me but betting on footy from a TV screen you can see less of what matters than say in cricket for eg which is a much better tv sport as most of the action occurs within a 22 yard strip.

Do you think there is betting related corruption within AFL?

I doubt any fixing happens in AFL, anything that you could spot fix like disposals, 1st goal etc doesn't have enough liquidity to make it worthwhile. Bribing the umpires would be the best way to do it but even then it's hard to get large sums of money down on AFL and that wouldn't guarantee anything

Yes I believe it already has see earlier quote about Melbourne

 

[SunshineBoy]

Do both of you believe that the umpiring fiasco are attempts at match fixing

I also have grave concerns about the 2016 grand final

 

[This Is Anfield]

Australia massive favourites tonight... huge choke if they don't make the final.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Do both of you believe that the umpiring fiasco are attempts at match fixing

I also have grave concerns about the 2016 grand final

And the 2018 prelim

 

[SunshineBoy]

And the 2018 prelim

Nah mate we shit the bed that night

 

[ComfortablyNumb]

Nah mate we s**t the bed that night

Literally and figuratively.

 

[Sir_Loin]

Nah mate we s**t the bed that night

We were poisoned

 

[smasha]

Huuuuuge game tonight,cmon Aussie!

 

[Rocco sifreddi]

Huuuuuge game tonight,cmon Aussie!

This is the best post fmd im getting brain fryed with the others.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Australia massive favourites tonight... huge choke if they don't make the final.

I am sorry to report I think Aus are comfortably the best team as big matches normally run with the bowling attacks and ours is way better, but England will win despite being the inferior team.

 

[SunshineBoy]

I am sorry to report I think Aus are comfortably the best team as big matches normally run with the bowling attacks and ours is way better, but England will win despite being the inferior team.

Yeah our batting is better, maybe the bookies have got to finch and warner

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Do both of you believe that the umpiring fiasco are attempts at match fixing

I also have grave concerns about the 2016 grand final

Bulldogs definitely had the favour of the umpires in 2016 GF as did we in the 2017 renewal. I don't have a well formed view on whether this could form part of some pre-arranged plan. But let's say we take that theory and run with it....the person who came out worst from it was Dan Hanneberry who copped a knee injury he never really seemed to get over....former AFL official Simon Lethlean goes to St Kilda....and is reported to be solely responsible for D Hanneberry being offered a massive contract that made no sense whatsoever to anyone else in the universe. So poor umpiring causes the Hanneberry injury, Hanneberry never played a decent match since as a result, AFL official turns up in club land at one of 18 clubs, the self same club who takes D Hanneberry for a massive contract against all reason on his say so.

The problem with this theory is it is a long stretch to say Hanneberry could make a case against the umpiring in order to seek compensation for his injury, when it was the action of an opposition player that caused it. If someone can help with that part of the story then we may have an official conspiracy theory. Could we say perhaps the Bulldogs players may have been instructed that they would not be penalised for anything bar ripping someone's head off?

 

[SunshineBoy]

Bulldogs definitely had the favour of the umpires in 2016 GF as did we in the 2017 renewal. I don't have a well formed view on whether this could form part of some pre-arranged plan. But let's say we take that theory and run with it....the person who came out worst from it was Dan Hanneberry who copped a knee injury he never really seemed to get over....former AFL official Simon Lethlean goes to St Kilda....and is reported to be solely responsible for D Hanneberry being offered a massive contract that made no sense whatsoever to anyone else in the universe. So poor umpiring causes the Hanneberry injury, Hanneberry never played a decent match since as a result, AFL official turns up in club land at one of 18 clubs, the self same club who takes D Hanneberry for a massive contract against all reason on his say so.

The problem with this theory is it is a long stretch to say Hanneberry could make a case against the umpiring in order to seek compensation for his injury, when it was the action of an opposition player that caused it. If someone can help with that part of the story then we may have an official conspiracy theory. Could we say perhaps the Bulldogs players may have been instructed that they would not be penalised for anything bar ripping someone's head off?

Not talking about injuries mate , the free kick count ensured only one side could win, in a game like ours lopsided counts are an anomaly, but of course we are Aussie’s we would never think of matchfixing we are whiter than white

 

[SunshineBoy]

You sit there with your conclusive proof that Dhoni was throwing the game and every other nationality are corrupt yet us aussies could not possibly stoop that low,

Melbourne threw the game against us for the tom Scully pick, the AFL condoned that match fixing, and you don’t think the 2016 grand final can be questioned.

 

[SunshineBoy]

Australia has obviously been got at by the bookies

 

[Tiges1229]

Game over

 

[Gunit]

Aussies have gastro

 

[SunshineBoy]

Credit where it’s due they have bowled well