To Ablett or not to Ablett.

[RevDog]

I'm on board, was last year and I didn't need to worry about the captain once. (cept when injuried of course)

Now to get him back I upgraded Selwood to Ablett and Cox down to Fraser. Fraser had a decent average of just under 80 last season so if I get that out of him this year I'd be happy. Still plenty of time to change though, haha.

 

[#6 Mark Williams]

Ablett is a must and thing about him having to average 150 to maintain his average is a lie. He must average around 135 to maintain his average, although this calculation is very hard to explain, but anything around 150 is ludicrous.

The captain option he offers is far superior to any other and even if he averages around 125ish it is still worth it because you are getting the full 125, not 125 divided by 22 less when you bought him.

 

[Willow_2000]

Ok i now have Ablett.
Out: Drummond, Franklin and S.Thompson
In: S.Stevens, Fev, Ablett

 

[IDIG]

Out: Heater, Skipworth, Mastern, Kerr
In: Adcock, Ziebell or Steelebottom, Swallow and Gazza

Thoughts? I did (and probably still do) think Ablett is too expensive but think it's worth the punt to have him from the get-go.

 

[trix17]

im reasonably happy with my downgrading to fit ablett in, i had skipworth in forward and griffen in mid, put skipworth in mid for griffen and hentschel in forward for skipworth, this has given me the chance to downgrade bartelto judd, hayes up to ablett and gibbs up to cooney

 

[Jezzza]

lol when I bumped this I did wonder how many would jump on board, bandwagoners

I will be watching the rest of the NAB cup to see how much time he spends deep forward. If it's a lot I will be a bit concerned that if that happens during the regular season it may adversely affect his scores. I don't think come the season proper opposition coaches will allow him to be one out in the square. Though it did seem like Ablett was working the forward half of the ground while Jimmey patrolled the back, interesting...

For those thinking you will get 350-400ish from him every week as captain I wouldn't bank on that. I'd work off a 250-300ish range & look at what you realistically expect the rest of your squad to score.

If you look at it this way for $1.1m you can get 2 guns around the $550k mark v Ablett & a high $300k player. In the end it's all about tradeoffs, which is what makes this game so frustrating & enjoyable at the same time.

 

[swansfan51]

I've always had Ablett, and my team isn't changing before round 1 unless someone gets injured, it's been locked for about 2 weeks. Why would 1 game convince so many people to sacrifice multiple areas of their team to get him in the squad? And a pre-season game as well. I have to admit I don't understand why people would pick him now - you had all of last season to look at him, and he was best on ground in the grand final, so you hardly needed to see recent form surely?

I think if people are bringing him in now they might be doing it for the wrong reasons - changing your team every week is never a good sign in my opinion. Base decisions off a few months (or in the case of some players, 5 years), not week to week.

 

[Itsblackandwhite]

I've always had Ablett, and my team isn't changing before round 1 unless someone gets injured, it's been locked for about 2 weeks. Why would 1 game convince so many people to sacrifice multiple areas of their team to get him in the squad? And a pre-season game as well. I have to admit I don't understand why people would pick him now - you had all of last season to look at him, and he was best on ground in the grand final, so you hardly needed to see recent form surely?

I think if people are bringing him in now they might be doing it for the wrong reasons - changing your team every week is never a good sign in my opinion. Base decisions off a few months (or in the case of some players, 5 years), not week to week.

I make a different draft every day, one with ablett wont hurt me

 

[Topper]

Ive traded him in and out about 5-6 times so far, but after last night im trading him back in and he's staying!!!

OUT:J Selwood, B Reilly, P Burgoyne, H Shaw

IN: YYYAAABBBLLLEEETTT, N Foley, R Houlihan, N Malceski

Im actually pretty happy with the changes ive made to secure Ablett, the only player im disappointed to be losing is J Selwood, i'll have to make him one of my first upgrades, if all's going well.

 

[TigerGlory]

I just dumped Pavlich and upgraded Kane Cornes to little Gazza now.

I got off relatively light, since I can still grab a medium pricer to replace the Pav.

 

[#6 Mark Williams]

I've always had Ablett, and my team isn't changing before round 1 unless someone gets injured, it's been locked for about 2 weeks. Why would 1 game convince so many people to sacrifice multiple areas of their team to get him in the squad? And a pre-season game as well. I have to admit I don't understand why people would pick him now - you had all of last season to look at him, and he played very fell in the grand final (141) but unfortunately Luke Hodge (155) was best on ground in the grand final, hence thats why he received the coleman, so you hardly needed to see recent form surely?

I think if people are bringing him in now they might be doing it for the wrong reasons - changing your team every week is never a good sign in my opinion. Base decisions off a few months (or in the case of some players, 5 years), not week to week.

Edited for accuracy.

 

[jimmy5]

lol when I bumped this I did wonder how many would jump on board, bandwagoners

I will be watching the rest of the NAB cup to see how much time he spends deep forward. If it's a lot I will be a bit concerned that if that happens during the regular season it may adversely affect his scores. I don't think come the season proper opposition coaches will allow him to be one out in the square. Though it did seem like Ablett was working the forward half of the ground while Jimmey patrolled the back, interesting...

.

Interesting thoughts Jezzza, I was thinking maybe it could be a positive if GAJ goes forward for a so called rest and snags goals instead of spending time off the ground.

Although i didn't catch the Blues v North match i heard comments that Judd was used in a similar fashion.

 

[#6 Mark Williams]

I've always had Ablett, and my team isn't changing before round 1 unless someone gets injured, it's been locked for about 2 weeks. Why would 1 game convince so many people to sacrifice multiple areas of their team to get him in the squad? And a pre-season game as well. I have to admit I don't understand why people would pick him now - you had all of last season to look at him, and he was best on ground in the grand final, so you hardly needed to see recent form surely?

I've always had Ablett, and my team isn't changing before round 1 unless someone gets injured, it's been locked for about 2 weeks. Why would 1 game convince so many people to sacrifice multiple areas of their team to get him in the squad? And a pre-season game as well. I have to admit I don't understand why people would pick him now - you had all of last season to look at him, and he played very fell in the grand final (141) but Luke Hodge (155) was best on ground in the grand final. hence thats why he received the coleman, so you hardly needed to see recent form surely?

Edited for accuracy.

 

[Jezzza]

Interesting thoughts Jezzza, I was thinking maybe it could be a positive if GAJ goes forward for a so called rest and snags goals instead of spending time off the ground.

Although i didn't catch the Blues v North match i heard comments that Judd was used in a similar fashion.

If it's an occasional move for a brief rest then yes it could improve his scores if he snags a couple. I was thinking more along the lines of playing the majority of a qtr or 2 up forward quite regularly but it's Geelong so it will probably be down that end for most of the game anyway...

Yeah Juddy did line up around the 50m arc for a while.

 

[PowerOfThePussy]

Edited for accuracy.

We read it the first time. Yes Yes you won - good on you.

This is a supercoach discussion board. If you must act like a child, try heading over to Bay 13.

 

[sirviv]

Geez I hope he does spend a quarter or two as a deep forward he'll get 20 - 25 possies a game and end up with 5-7 goals. There is only one answer to this thread and that is he is a must and if you don't have him rd 1 you are already behind the eightball.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

I can afford him with a simple Kreuzer to Leuey downgrade, which I might do anyway, but I'm still not sold.

If (and this is obviously a big if, either way) Ablett holds his ~130 average, he only has to miss three games and you lose the entire advantage you held over a 110-115 averaging lock-and-leave captain. If you're good at picking weekly performers two or even one might suffice, and if you used the spare cash wisely on undervalued players you may not even need that.

Ablett is a lock, as captain he will average 350-400 a week, too good to pass up, and even if his price drops, it wont be by much.

If you ignore his two injury games and his second comeback he would still have only averaged 140, and if you take out that freak 254 performance he'd be back at 132. It's going to take another serious step up in form to average anywhere near 175 over 22 rounds.

Ablett is a must and thing about him having to average 150 to maintain his average is a lie. He must average around 135 to maintain his average, although this calculation is very hard to explain, but anything around 150 is ludicrous.

If he only needed to maintain his average to maintain his value the calculation would be dead simple to explain, but as the magic number gradually lowers over the first half of the season by close to 10%, as the league-wide player average increases due to rookies debuting, pre-existing players need to lift their average by a corresponding percentage to hold their price.

As far as even maintaining averages after career-best years goes, Ablett is obviously his own man, but the history is pertinent:

C Cornes 120 > 102, 118 > 89
Tredrea 126 > 77
Brown 140 > 111
Hodge 135 > 104
Judd 132 > 106
Kerr 120 > 90
Cousins 124 > 106
Goodes 120 > 105
Bartel 126 > 116
Bowden 125 > 117
Pavlich 115 > 110
K Cornes 112 > 94
Cox 108 > 99
Harvey 109 > 100
Goodwin 113 > 100
Riewoldt 117 > 114
Stevens 104 > 95
Dal Santo D) 124 > 117 > 116 > 102

 

[Willow_2000]

We read it the first time. Yes Yes you won - good on you.

This is a supercoach discussion board. If you must act like a child, try heading over to Bay 13.

No he didnt win, He said Hodge won the colemen for best on ground... pretty sure he fails for that

 

[#6 Mark Williams]

We read it the first time. Yes Yes you won - good on you.

This is a supercoach discussion board. If you must act like a child, try heading over to Bay 13.

I'm just stating the facts you bitter handbagger.

 

[#6 Mark Williams]

Those historical facts mean nothing, because theres always a reason people lose their average, especially someone like Dal Santo who just gets the sh** tagged out of him each week, Kornes clanger king, Kerr injury, suspension and tag prone. Ablett's only going to keep improving as he is still very young and he aint going to get suspended.

 

[Ling Sting]

Those historical facts mean nothing, because theres always a reason people lose their average, especially someone like Dal Santo who just gets the sh** tagged out of him each week, Kornes clanger king, Kerr injury, suspension and tag prone. Ablett's only going to keep improving as he is still very young and he aint going to get suspended.

even after your handbagger comment i still have to agree with you!!

the man is a freak....injury will be the only thing stopping him this year.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

But there are many, many possible reasons for a slump, and almost every player that has dominated the competition in recent years has soon been nailed by something. One minor injury or a couple of decent tags and your shiny investment doesn't look so sharp. Of course, the same goes for any other player, but Ablett soaks up a significantly larger portion of your cap so the impact is greater.

 

[#6 Mark Williams]

So what Ablett will score 200+ in some rounds and as a captain option is far superior.

Luke Hodge is a SC gun also don't be surprised if he averages 135, hes done it before

 

[_ed_]

I'm just stating the facts you bitter handbagger.

You're actually trolling, and failing miserably. Mistaking the Norm Smith for the Coleman certainly doesn't help your questionable cause.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

In light of the SC score weighting system, I think it's also worth considering whether Ablett's incendiary early-2008 form at all coincided with him carrying the rest of a team in fairly ordinary form through a few close, scrappy games, while the Geelong of 2009 are going to be hungry and angry come round one proper.

And of course, always keep in mind that this is NAB Cup Rd 1, and has also produced ~150s for Lockyer, Fev, Goddard, Roughead and Richo, as well as a first-half hundred for Brad Green.