Top Tasmanian Draft Prospects for 2012

[Tazwegian]

Hi Tazwegian I would be interested if you think Lonergan will go ahead of Siggins?

I would be very surprised if Lonergan didn't go ahead of Siggins. I think there is a good chance Lonergan will be our highest draft pick since Jack Riewoldt. I still reckon Siggins' most likely range is 30-60. Both play positions that are sought after though, and play them well, so I think both have a reasonable chance of going early. Round 1 would be pushing it for Siggins though, even though Schade went 24 last year and I like the look of Siggins slightly more so than Schade.

The positive thing is it seems Tassie is lifting itself out of that terrible period we had from around 2008-2011, where we produced very few genuinely exciting prospects. Weller, Russell, and Darley are probably all going to be reasonable to good players, and Mitch Robinson is already a gun, and Howe is genuinely exciting, but we didn't have many go through the draft that were highly touted (Weller and Darley probably would have been first rounders if they went through, to be fair). 2000-2007 was probably even worse for us. That is why there are pretty much no Tassie players aged over 26 in the AFL, just Callinan that I can think of, and he was only recruited recently. We seem to be getting back to producing talent again. Not sure if the recent resurgence has anything to do with the re-establishment of the TSL?

Next year we will have Templeton, who should go pretty early as well, and the K twins (who need to improve a little on their skills before I am confident they will be high picks), and there will be one or two more who pop up on top of that that could be exciting.

 

[gotassieboys]

I would be very surprised if Lonergan didn't go ahead of Siggins. I think there is a good chance Lonergan will be our highest draft pick since Jack Riewoldt. I still reckon Siggins' most likely range is 30-60. Both play positions that are sought after though, and play them well, so I think both have a reasonable chance of going early. Round 1 would be pushing it for Siggins though, even though Schade went 24 last year and I like the look of Siggins slightly more so than Schade.

The positive thing is it seems Tassie is lifting itself out of that terrible period we had from around 2008-2011, where we produced very few genuinely exciting prospects. Weller, Russell, and Darley are probably all going to be reasonable to good players, and Mitch Robinson is already a gun, and Howe is genuinely exciting, but we didn't have many go through the draft that were highly touted (Weller and Darley probably would have been first rounders if they went through, to be fair). 2000-2007 was probably even worse for us. That is why there are pretty much no Tassie players aged over 26 in the AFL, just Callinan that I can think of, and he was only recruited recently. We seem to be getting back to producing talent again. Not sure if the recent resurgence has anything to do with the re-establishment of the TSL?

Next year we will have Templeton, who should go pretty early as well, and the K twins (who need to improve a little on their skills before I am confident they will be high picks), and there will be one or two more who pop up on top of that that could be exciting.

Good analysis on the overall state of play.

I really hope we get 3-4 draftees this year. I am still smarting over McKenzie!!!!

It is a brutal industry which is sometimes hard to work out.

 

[Tazwegian]

Three or four draftees is likely this year. We have one definite, and a bunch of very strong to reasonable chances. A good article on one of those reasonable chances in Brady Jones popped up on afl.com.au today:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/149616/default.aspx

According to the article "his management, Velocity Sports, is confident Jones will be a late selection in this year’s NAB AFL Draft, or at least snapped up in the rookie draft". Could probably take the opinions of his management with a grain of salt, but I think there is a reasonable chance it could happen.

 

[SDog]

Three or four draftees is likely this year. We have one definite, and a bunch of very strong to reasonable chances. A good article on one of those reasonable chances in Brady Jones popped up on afl.com.au today:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/149616/default.aspx

According to the article "his management, Velocity Sports, is confident Jones will be a late selection in this year’s NAB AFL Draft, or at least snapped up in the rookie draft". Could probably take the opinions of his management with a grain of salt, but I think there is a reasonable chance it could happen.

whispers ive heard on Jones is he struggled at the day combine for some reason, really fell flat in beep test and sprints. which is weird, because he has no trouble covering the turf in a game.

 

[Tazwegian]

whispers ive heard on Jones is he struggled at the day combine for some reason, really fell flat in beep test and sprints. which is weird, because he has no trouble covering the turf in a game.

That's a shame if true. It may impact his chances a bit,but I think clubs would understand that his athleticism will improve pretty quickly once he gets to a club. Did you hear any whispers regarding Bowden?

 

[Tazwegian]

Ben Richmond - First Tasmanian recruit of 2012

Looks like we have all been completely and utterly blindsided. Who would have thought Ben Richmond would be the first Tasmanian drafted in 2012? We've been talking about rookie options like Brady Jones and Jaye Bowden, not one of us threw the AIS basketballer Ben Richmond out there. Great news though, as he has been picked up by Collingwood as a category 2 rookie! Congrats. Great to have one of our boys on the Pies list! First since Holland, iirc. *edit, Sam Iles*

Apparently Ben has a massive vertical leap (the highest at Collingwood) and very strong endurance. He represented the AIS as a basketballer. It will be a big leap (no pun intended) to transition to AFL, but Collingwood are amazing at developing and recruiting players, so there is every chance he could make it as a senior player.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/149857/default.aspx

Other news:

Updated the OP to include a couple more player bios. I also took a leaf out of a couple of the phantom draft guy's book and added my thoughts on their likely draft range and player comparisons, which may or may not prove to be controversial. Any thoughts on player comparisons for Siggo and Van den Berg? Was thinking of maybe a Kade Simpson for Van den Berg (bit of a stretch).

 

[DOSACHOKER1]

Jesse Lonergan is off to a great start, getting 83cm (2nd highest jump ever recorded) in the standing leap and getting 91cm (equal third on the day) on the running leap. Fantastic start from the Tassie boy! Incredibly to think he is highly rated in strength and agility too. Bit of an athletic powerhouse, apparently.

Update:

Not sure about Lonergan's agility test, but he go 3.01 in the 20m sprint, which is pretty elite. He's doing very well!

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/149027/default.aspx

would have thought his athleticism and power would have taken him under 3 for the 20m sprint, must have just had a bad day, 3.01 not bad but on his other results should be around 2.95?? would love to know what J Howe jumpes at state screening, apparently when he did his they buggered up the measuring but there was a belief it was much higher than Nic Nat at the time, would have thought his VL would be far greater than Lonergan?

 

[Tazwegian]

would have thought his athleticism and power would have taken him under 3 for the 20m sprint, must have just had a bad day, 3.01 not bad but on his other results should be around 2.95?? would love to know what J Howe jumpes at state screening, apparently when he did his they buggered up the measuring but there was a belief it was much higher than Nic Nat at the time, would have thought his VL would be far greater than Lonergan?

You would think so, regarding Howe leaping higher than Lonergan. He has a very impressive leap on him. One of the great marks he took this year was when he simply jumped up from a standing start and rose over a pack of players to take a very high grab. Not many could have taken that one. I'd say Lonergan could have done a better 20m sprint, no doubt. But 3.01 is pretty good. There are a lot of variables that can effect your performance on the day, and 3.01 is certainly good enough to please recruiters. Particularly in combination with his elite repeat sprint effort.

 

[gotassieboys]

You would think so, regarding Howe leaping higher than Lonergan. He has a very impressive leap on him. One of the great marks he took this year was when he simply jumped up from a standing start and rose over a pack of players to take a very high grab. Not many could have taken that one. I'd say Lonergan could have done a better 20m sprint, no doubt. But 3.01 is pretty good. There are a lot of variables that can effect your performance on the day, and 3.01 is certainly good enough to please recruiters. Particularly in combination with his elite repeat sprint effort.

Hopefully the excellent testing done at the combine by the Tassie boys might see a better result than in 2011 (don't get me started!)

Did anyone see the "Richmond" basketball recruit coming??

 

[SDog]

Hopefully the excellent testing done at the combine by the Tassie boys might see a better result than in 2011 (don't get me started!)

Did anyone see the "Richmond" basketball recruit coming??

merc ran a story on that richmond kid weeks ago, about the time of TSL grannie I think from memory.

 

[SDog]

merc ran a story on that richmond kid weeks ago, about the time of TSL grannie I think from memory.

just found it.

http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2012/09/21/362284_sport-news.html

 

[Tazwegian]

Next time I do this, I will save the first couple of replies for video footage and such. That way the OP won't get too congested. But for now, I'll just post highlight packages in the thread. Here is Thurlow's highlights. Some good marking on display:

 

[Tazwegian]

A seven minute interview with Jesse linked below. He seems like a pretty down to earth guy. It blew me away when he said he hadn't run a 3km in a few years. If I were him, I would have been practicing that distance for a few weeks leading into the combine. It is amazing how much just practising a distance can improve your time over that distance, even without much improvement in your actual cardiovascular fitness. 3km is a tricky little run, and it is important to get into the right kind of rhythm if you want to maximise your time.

 

[gotassieboys]

Hi Tazwegian

It has gone very quiet as is probably to be expected.

Have you heard anymore on the Tassie hopefuls.

How about Musicka for a long shot!!!

 

[Tazwegian]

Hi Tazwegian

It has gone very quiet as is probably to be expected.

Have you heard anymore on the Tassie hopefuls.

How about Musicka for a long shot!!!

Not much happening at this stage. Thurlow was awarded the Davidson medal a couple of days ago, receiving a lot of praise from Armstrong. All the talk at the moment is still around Jesse Lonergan though, and exactly where he will sit come draft day. I still think 13-25 is his most likely range, and there is a fair bit of excitement about him going to Collingwood on their board. Apart from that, it is all quiet and probably will be until about a week before the draft when rumors start flooding in a bit more frequently. I still haven't got around to Nankervis's bio. I should update that soon.

Musicka is a very rough outside chance, and probably should really be ahead of guys like Brady Jones on footballing merit alone. Josh Woolley is another one with an outside chance. I just haven't heard much about clubs being interested in Musicka. Chris25 was saying Fremantle were pretty keen last year, but not sure if that interest still holds.

At this stage, I have Tassie picking up at least two more recruits this year. Jesse is a definite, and you would think any one of Jackson Thurlow, Sam Siggins, and Jaye Bowden would be unlucky not to get picked up. Then you have other potential guys like Mitch van den Berg, Josh Woolley, Brady Jones, and Toby Nankervis who are not beyond the realms of going late in the draft or as rookies. So any less than three Tassies drafted this year (including Richmond) would be a very disappointing result. But could potentially have five or six (at a stretch) go through.

 

[Tazwegian]

Not good news for us followers of Tassie football. Shermo axed by the dogs.

A few years back, Shermo was one of our better prospects. He had a brilliant first year at the Lions, and besides a few issues with inconsistency (and probably attitude on reflection), he could on his day absolutely tear a team to shreds. He has not been a good pick up for the Dogs, only played one or two good games for them, and the whole Wilkinson affair has tarnished his reputation. I still think he could turn things around, but not sure if a club is going to want to take a punt on him. Sydney were keen two years ago, but they have probably moved on. A team with a strong culture like Sydney would be good for him though, and I hope he does get picked up. Lots of talent wasted on Shermo!

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/150329/default.aspx

 

[BoxBrigade]

I've heard (from pretty reliable sources) that Collingwood are frequently in contact with Jesse and have said they will try and pick him up with one of their first round draft picks (18,19,21).

They have also expressed interest in Nankervis, who I would suggest is a better chance than most think to get picked up. Have you seen the size of the kid? Gigantic and good skills and very few ruckman were invited to the draft. The potential for him to beome a genuine ruckman is there for any interested club.

 

[Tazwegian]

I've heard (from pretty reliable sources) that Collingwood are frequently in contact with Jesse and have said they will try and pick him up with one of their first round draft picks (18,19,21).

They have also expressed interest in Nankervis, who I would suggest is a better chance than most think to get picked up. Have you seen the size of the kid? Gigantic and good skills and very few ruckman were invited to the draft. The potential for him to beome a genuine ruckman is there for any interested club.

I'd love Jesse to go to Collingwood, and they do have a lot of selections at in the right range. Very good chance of happening. Collingwood are brilliant at developing players, and I'd like to see him at one of the more established clubs. He could probably get some games next year if he impressed during the preseason.

Interesting to hear your thoughts on Nankervis, I haven't even bothered to write him up in my intro yet, mainly because I haven't seen much of him, and for the reason that most people have written him off as only a slight chance, so maybe that has influenced me to write him off a little also. You are right about the lack of quality rucks this year, so that is something to consider. I will definitely have to stop hating Collingwood if you guys pick up Richmond, Lonergan, and Nankervis in the one year

 

[Hobartcityholligans]

Apron making this new account mainly to bag out the s.w.l ( scott wade league ) a old team mate from back in the day said check this out. Long shot? www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcM6arnP-Xk

 

[Hobartcityholligans]

It seems the link I posted isn't working. YouTube Jesse wells 2012 draft video if you re having the same trouble I am, technology still cant get my head round it after 20 years

 

[Tazwegian]

It seems the link I posted isn't working. YouTube Jesse wells 2012 draft video if you re having the same trouble I am, technology still cant get my head round it after 20 years

This big fella can certainly play, I'll give him that. Impressive video. DuffTV has an amazing strike rate of getting videos out there that attract the attention of recruiters. His Howe video was cited as a reason that Howe was drafted, and his Aaron Hall video certainly attracted a lot of interest too. I guess he is a long shot, but I remember thinking Howe and Hall were longshots as well, and they made it. But his age may be a factor, at 26. Bloody good highlights reel though, I'll see if my link works:

 

[Tazwegian]

In other news, there maybe up to three of our better current players who are looking for new homes during the delisted players free agency period. Sam Iles and Justin Sherman are two that could definitely attract attention. Whilst Sam Lonergan may be delisted within the next couple of days.

Sherman has amazing potential and it is quite sad how his career has panned out after such an incredible start with Brisbane. He may be worth a look, the only thing that will stop him getting a new club is his off field attitude. He could be a real live wire off half forward for the right club.

Arguably the unluckiest and best player to be delisted for non-disciplinary reasons, Iles could find a home in the coming weeks as well. Was one of the Suns better players this year, before being inexplicably dropped mid year, not to get another game. Iles was ultimately a victim of the Suns focus on youth development. At only 25 years of age, he could still give a club plenty over the coming years.

Sam Lonergan, the uncle of top Tasmanian draft prospect and potential first rounder Jesse Lonergan, may be on the outer at Essendon as well. Arguably the least talented of the three Tasmanians who could be looking for new homes this week, Lonergan could still prove useful for a club looking for a tough inside midfielder. His athleticism and awareness is what lets Lonergan down, but he is a ferocious opponent in contested situations. He has played some excellent games for Essendon, but perhaps lacks consistency at times, and I can certainly understand why, at the age of 25, Essendon may have lost some faith in him.

Interestingly, with the retirement of Brad Green, these three are amongst the oldest Tasmanians left in the AFL system, which highlights a real problem we had a few years ago developing players. Whether it was just a natural trough, or a systemic failure, I can't be sure, but it is an oddity that if none of these players find new homes, that most of our talent is below the age of 25. In fact, I think Nathan Grima is the oldest Tasmanian left, at 27! *edit, forgot about Callinan

 

[Hobartcityholligans]

I have heard a few little rumors about wells. Heard that that there has been some interest from a number of afl clubs. Worst thing about the off season is you don't get all the footy talk and miss being up in the can bar
Hope someone takes him would love to see the looks on the faces upstairs. Apparently to old for the state side but draft rumour circling what a joke. Get it right Scotty not going to look good for you if this happens!

 

[gotassieboys]

Hi Tazwegian

I was thinking after my kiss of death last year in the draftee stakes that this year might be gold.

The class of 2012 did in all seriousness did test better than those in 2011.

With all the top 10 results I will stick my neck out and say 3 draftees.

Also the so called super draft of 2012 has turned out to be a joke and the go home factor has gained more strength which might help the Tassie boys.

Don't mention McKenzie!!!!

 

[Tazwegian]

The class of 2012 did in all seriousness did test better than those in 2011.

It has been a massive improvement.. Even Schade from last year apparently was in the lower rung on the endurance testing, bottom 20%. This year we have had a bunch of good performances. Josh Woolley did pretty done well also, getting 14 on the beep test and testing 3.0 seconds on 20m sprint at the state combine. Should have impressed whichever club/s were looking at him.

But unfortunately, our AFL players had a fairly subdued year. Riewoldt won the Coleman, Howe won the Mark of the Year, and Birchall made the AA, which was great. But we didn't get many Brownlow votes and three of our better older players were delisted, and Green retired. We need to replenish those stocks with a big draft this year. Three at least, and maybe a rookie or two!!

Jimmy Webster has received some decent praise on the Saints board, one guy compared him to Dal Santo. Hopefully we see him start to crack in to the Saints, Schade should get at least some games as well, and I am confident Darley will earn a good run in GWS's backline. So hopefully some of last year's guys can step up this year and 2012 will look a lot better. Look for Mav and Russell to start showing what they have got too.