Top2 Horse Racing & Sports

Remove this Banner Ad

Top2

Top2

Team Captain
Apr 28, 2007
377
16
Caulfield
AFL Club
Collingwood
Hi,
I will post my top2 ratings on selected races for anyone who is interested daily, I will sometimes show 4 selections in-case one of the top2 are scratched.
I bet on both selections using the dutch betting with a recovery staking system.
If a selection is under $2.10 no bet on that selection add the 3rd selection.
Country and Maidens use top 3 selections as quality can be poor.
 

Attachments

  • feb 2nd 2013 top2 - Sheet1.pdf
    505.7 KB · Views: 94

Log in to remove this ad.

Hi,
I will skip the first 3
BP = Barrier Position
TDW = Track Distance Wet
Trainer, Jockey & Weight
API = Average Price Index
Place %
The next 4 are ratings
XR = Xtreme ratings
FR = Form ratings
PR = Performance rating
AR = Average rating
Now CR= combined rating of the all data then averaged out
BR = Boost rating is my new stats based ratings.

Hope this helps
 
Top2 said:
Hi,
I will skip the first 3
BP = Barrier Position
TDW = Track Distance Wet
Trainer, Jockey & Weight
API = Average Price Index
Place %
The next 4 are ratings
XR = Xtreme ratings
FR = Form ratings
PR = Performance rating
AR = Average rating
Now CR= combined rating of the all data then averaged out
BR = Boost rating is my new stats based ratings.

Hope this helps
Click to expand...

Thanks for that. Which is the best rating, and what kind of results does it produce?

I like the sound of the Extrene Rating... Is it the rating one chooses when skydiving?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Top2 serious question - which are the best of the ratings that you list, and can you outline what they're all like? What kind of stats they produce (how many winners on top, for eg, and at what ave price if possible), how best to use them, etc? Anything you can provide would be helpful to understand just what it is you're posting there.
 
Hi,
The BR ratings are the most consistent, the form elements are:
Last 4 Beaten Distance
Last 4 Weight Allocated changes
Last 4 Distance changes
Last start day
Today's Barrier
Place Strike rate
Location of last 4 starts
Prize money rank
Jockey Rating
Top2 Prices have a Win Strike Rate of +/- 55% on average with individual days
varying between 40% and 60%. On RARE occasions I have been down to 30%.
I work on the max field of 12 and no less than 5
Below is a chart showing avg price for 1,2,& 3 picks depending on field size

Sample size is 36,239 races
All Days, all Tracks, all Distances, all Going, all Prices, races with First Starters
included.
The table below shows that, over time, I can expect a Top2 Win Strike Rate of 50.2%
without being discriminating in terms of field size etc.
This means that, according to my software predictor, I'm going to meet a Runs Of Outs of 9
over my first 1000 bets with a number of lesser ROO’s.
I have experienced that a sequences of days on end where my
Top2 Win Strike Rate is in excess of 60% then I'll run into an apparent collapse
for a while of down to 40% or even 30%.
I smile sweetly and suck it up, it’s called ‘swings and roundabouts.
 

Attachments

  • data - Sheet1.pdf
    41.3 KB · Views: 125
Top2 said:
Hi,
The BR ratings are the most consistent, the form elements are:
Last 4 Beaten Distance
Last 4 Weight Allocated changes
Last 4 Distance changes
Last start day
Today's Barrier
Place Strike rate
Location of last 4 starts
Prize money rank
Jockey Rating
Top2 Prices have a Win Strike Rate of +/- 55% on average with individual days
varying between 40% and 60%. On RARE occasions I have been down to 30%.
I work on the max field of 12 and no less than 5
Below is a chart showing avg price for 1,2,& 3 picks depending on field size

Sample size is 36,239 races
All Days, all Tracks, all Distances, all Going, all Prices, races with First Starters
included.
The table below shows that, over time, I can expect a Top2 Win Strike Rate of 50.2%
without being discriminating in terms of field size etc.
This means that, according to my software predictor, I'm going to meet a Runs Of Outs of 9
over my first 1000 bets with a number of lesser ROO’s.
I have experienced that a sequences of days on end where my
Top2 Win Strike Rate is in excess of 60% then I'll run into an apparent collapse
for a while of down to 40% or even 30%.
I smile sweetly and suck it up, it’s called ‘swings and roundabouts.
Click to expand...

So your BR method is an Impact Value method, very similar to Roger Biggs' method, by the sound of it, am I right?
 
Duritz said:
So your BR method is an Impact Value method, very similar to Roger Biggs' method, by the sound of it, am I right?
Click to expand...
Yes I use his method plus 3 others and made a excel system that automates the selections.
He and others work on price to rank, I haven't got that far yet to calculate prices as I am teaching myself excel.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Top2 Horse Racing & Sports

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top