Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Afro_dog]

Not ideal that a lot of the younger fringe boys seem to gravitate towards him then (Bedendo, Arty, Clarke)

No surprise as all 4 had similarly challenging upbringings. I like that the club is being comfortable drafting kids that aren't from privilege backgrounds, but we need to ensure we are investing in the right resources to get the best out of these kids moving forward.

It's pretty damning that outside of GWS, we are the only club not to have an Indigenous player reach 100 games for the club.

 

[grassman75]

No surprise as all 4 had similarly challenging upbringings. I like that the club is being comfortable drafting kids that aren't from privilege backgrounds, but we need to ensure we are investing in the right resources to get the best out of these kids moving forward.

It's pretty damning that outside of GWS, we are the only club not to have an Indigenous player reach 100 games for the club.

Liam Jones will achieve that feat next time he suits up
Lindsay Gilbee played 200+
Magic Maclean got 95 before the Bears poached him

 

[TiAn_]

This isn't a fair statistical comparison, because a fair chunk of those contests from opposition players would be not against English, plus it also doesn't measure the opposition's second ruck when he comes up against English, which has the net overall effect of making English look worse than fair, because it's true that English raises his game against opposition 2nd rucks when coming up against him (to a greater extent that all rucks do generally), plus Darcy is also not a very good ruck at this young stage of his career in physical stuff too (while we should expect him to get better).

Obviously English vs. opposition primary ruck is most contests but it's not much more than that - probably only slightly more than half.

And if you look at a team level - without having the ability or access to champion data's stats that does track each nominating ruck at each contest - the best we can do is team-level stats. We are rank 15 for hitout to advantage differential as a team opponents get an average of 1.9 per game), which is bad, but not rank 18 bad as many are suggesting.

This is in keeping with some of the game-by-game stats that Oliver G has put in review threads this year which shows that English has shown an ability to be quite a good ruck against opposition second rucks, better than the typical expected improvement from all rucks anyway when coming up against a weaker opponent (though it also speaks generally to some mental weakness against opposition primary rucks, which I agree may occur, though I think its flow on effect is limited).

I'm not even sure I can see the relevancy of hitout to advantage rates of the importance of physical competitiveness in the ruck in the same way that I can see the value of the direct act of a ruck kicking a goal or taking an intercept mark, or whatever, but I'm just putting it out there for fairness.

I'm still going to be accussed of being illogically pro-English or whatever, even though in many ways I see myself as being consistent with last year and would widely agree with many others here of his extent of his his drop off from last year., and that much of the reasons why I think he's a better player than perception last year still apply this year, it's just that it's obviously shifted to overall worse form this year, and I'm not blind to that either.

It's just that I was defending his All-Australian year last year as entirely being correct and justified, when many didn't think that last year (while still I only believed that he was the third-best ruck in the league, which I've pointed out, Darcy was better but injured last year and Gawn was better once Melbourne dropped Grundy), and I'm claiming he's dropped off to be about the tenth-best ruck in the league this year. It's just that many would have only had him as the eigth-best last year or whatever, not the third-best, and would claim that he's now the 18th best or whatever ruck in the league.

I think opposing first ruck is a fair comparison because both have the opportunity to go up against the other team’s second ruck. And Darcy and Lobb are at least competent, if not above average, as far as second rucks go.

Yes his goal kicking (and marking) is good, but it essentially comes at the cost of conceding a loss in the ruck contest every week. Compared to opposing first rucks, his average hit out differential is -9, his contested possession differential is -3 and his clearance differential is -1. I suspect those numbers will all get worse before the end of the season given our opponents. He had improved in this respect over the prior two years, but this year has been a seriously concerning regression.

Putting stats aside, this year he’s visibly regressed to regularly putting in some particularly meek efforts, either in individual acts or across periods of games. It’s jarring to see from a mature ruckman. If there were a centre bounce with a minute to go in a tied game he’d currently (and easily) be the one of our four onballers that I’d trust the least to beat their opponent. See last week Sweet having 15 hit outs in the first quarter while our midfield was non-existent. The most frustrating part was how predictable it was. Ideally you’d want your ruckman to be one of your most reliable players, not one of your flakiest.

My personal view is having an onballer that vacillates between below average and poor at the contested side (as English is this year) and can’t be trusted to negate their opponent isn’t worth the upticks he provides on the spread, particularly at his supposed contractual cost. If the 2024 version is what he will be moving forward then I’d honestly be happy to let him walk if it nets us say pick 10.

 

[grassman75]

Race 5 No. 8 at Randwick today boys and girls- The Englishman $21….omen or not?

 

[doggy_dog]

This isn't a fair statistical comparison, because a fair chunk of those contests from opposition players would be not against English, plus it also doesn't measure the opposition's second ruck when he comes up against English, which has the net overall effect of making English look worse than fair, because it's true that English raises his game against opposition 2nd rucks when coming up against him (to a greater extent that all rucks do generally), plus Darcy is also not a very good ruck at this young stage of his career in physical stuff too (while we should expect him to get better).

Obviously English vs. opposition primary ruck is most contests but it's not much more than that - probably only slightly more than half.

And if you look at a team level - without having the ability or access to champion data's stats that does track each nominating ruck at each contest - the best we can do is team-level stats. We are rank 15 for hitout to advantage differential as a team opponents get an average of 1.9 per game), which is bad, but not rank 18 bad as many are suggesting.

This is in keeping with some of the game-by-game stats that Oliver G has put in review threads this year which shows that English has shown an ability to be quite a good ruck against opposition second rucks, better than the typical expected improvement from all rucks anyway when coming up against a weaker opponent (though it also speaks generally to some mental weakness against opposition primary rucks, which I agree may occur, though I think its flow on effect is limited).

I'm not even sure I can see the relevancy of hitout to advantage rates of the importance of physical competitiveness in the ruck in the same way that I can see the value of the direct act of a ruck kicking a goal or taking an intercept mark, or whatever, but I'm just putting it out there for fairness.

I'm still going to be accussed of being illogically pro-English or whatever, even though in many ways I see myself as being consistent with last year and would widely agree with many others here of his extent of his his drop off from last year., and that much of the reasons why I think he's a better player than perception last year still apply this year, it's just that it's obviously shifted to overall worse form this year, and I'm not blind to that either.

It's just that I was defending his All-Australian year last year as entirely being correct and justified, when many didn't think that last year (while still I only believed that he was the third-best ruck in the league, which I've pointed out, Darcy was better but injured last year and Gawn was better once Melbourne dropped Grundy), and I'm claiming he's dropped off to be about the tenth-best ruck in the league this year. It's just that many would have only had him as the eigth-best last year or whatever, not the third-best, and would claim that he's now the 18th best or whatever ruck in the league.

So our alleged All Australian $1m ruck is only good against opposition second stringers? Is that not concerning to you?

 

[Ash1337]

Last night Bucks was talking about how the ruck position is pretty much dead in a sense that teams prefer a ruck that can impact around the ground. Geelong have finally settled on a Blicavs/De Koning combo as they can work around the ground better.

 

[Golden_6]

Last night Bucks was talking about how the ruck position is pretty much dead in a sense that teams prefer a ruck that can impact around the ground. Geelong have finally settled on a Blicavs/De Koning combo as they can work around the ground better.

People wouldn’t have any issue with English’s ruckwork if his opponent wasn’t having such an impact around stoppages and around the ground. That’s the issue.

 

[Mofra]

That is pretty simple the way he is playing if you think he has done the work and is fit enough he is just lazy in games. Why I do not know? I think he has the skill set to be a topliner something is holding him back. Conversion is easy to see as one of his faults. Question for you are you disappointed with his performances this season?

I'm disappointed with his timing and his goal kicking. He's actually working hard off the ball to make position most games and his GPS numbers were up when they were posted earlier in the season.

I think the whole lazy/not working hard enough stuff is, in itself, lazy analysis.

 

[geoffjennings79]

I'm disappointed with his timing and his goal kicking. He's actually working hard off the ball to make position most games and his GPS numbers were up when they were posted earlier in the season.

I think the whole lazy/not working hard enough stuff is, in itself, lazy analysis.

Agree Mofra, I don't buy into the laziness critique too much.

But I wonder what team mates think of the continual bakes from him. An occasional one and no one would probably care, but a few games I've seen live this year it's more than the occasional one. If he has an issue with delivery to forwards, maybe take it up with Spangher or Beveridge, or raise it in a team meeting.

 

[scooter600x]

Last night Bucks was talking about how the ruck position is pretty much dead in a sense that teams prefer a ruck that can impact around the ground. Geelong have finally settled on a Blicavs/De Koning combo as they can work around the ground better.

It will be interesting to see how Melbourne go this week without a ruck at all

 

[Mofra]

Agree Mofra, I don't buy into the laziness critique too much.

But I wonder what team mates think of the continual bakes from him. An occasional one and no one would probably care, but a few games I've seen live this year it's more than the occasional one. If he has an issue with delivery to forwards, maybe take it up with Spangher or Beveridge, or raise it in a team meeting.

He's certainly playing frustrated. Forwards often do that if they work really hard off the ball to make position then get let down with delivery but house leading isn't just what it was last year.

I think a combination of a few minutes up the ground each quarter to get some easy ball and a bit of a talking to about maturity might help.

 

[Mofra]

It will be interesting to see how Melbourne go this week without a ruck at all

I think Port last year did the same thing for a few weeks. It worked well for a game or two then it was a millstone.

 

[Dogs 13]

Race 5 No. 8 at Randwick today boys and girls- The Englishman $21….omen or not?

Box it in the trifecta with I’mintowin, Fortune & Rise To It

Unfortunately the Zorro horse probably wins.

 

[NthBondiDoggies]

This isn't a fair statistical comparison, because a fair chunk of those contests from opposition players would be not against English, plus it also doesn't measure the opposition's second ruck when he comes up against English, which has the net overall effect of making English look worse than fair, because it's true that English raises his game against opposition 2nd rucks when coming up against him (to a greater extent that all rucks do generally), plus Darcy is also not a very good ruck at this young stage of his career in physical stuff too (while we should expect him to get better).

Obviously English vs. opposition primary ruck is most contests but it's not much more than that - probably only slightly more than half.

And if you look at a team level - without having the ability or access to champion data's stats that does track each nominating ruck at each contest - the best we can do is team-level stats. We are rank 15 for hitout to advantage differential as a team opponents get an average of 1.9 per game), which is bad, but not rank 18 bad as many are suggesting.

This is in keeping with some of the game-by-game stats that Oliver G has put in review threads this year which shows that English has shown an ability to be quite a good ruck against opposition second rucks, better than the typical expected improvement from all rucks anyway when coming up against a weaker opponent (though it also speaks generally to some mental weakness against opposition primary rucks, which I agree may occur, though I think its flow on effect is limited).

I'm not even sure I can see the relevancy of hitout to advantage rates of the importance of physical competitiveness in the ruck in the same way that I can see the value of the direct act of a ruck kicking a goal or taking an intercept mark, or whatever, but I'm just putting it out there for fairness.

I'm still going to be accussed of being illogically pro-English or whatever, even though in many ways I see myself as being consistent with last year and would widely agree with many others here of his extent of his his drop off from last year., and that much of the reasons why I think he's a better player than perception last year still apply this year, it's just that it's obviously shifted to overall worse form this year, and I'm not blind to that either.

It's just that I was defending his All-Australian year last year as entirely being correct and justified, when many didn't think that last year (while still I only believed that he was the third-best ruck in the league, which I've pointed out, Darcy was better but injured last year and Gawn was better once Melbourne dropped Grundy), and I'm claiming he's dropped off to be about the tenth-best ruck in the league this year. It's just that many would have only had him as the eigth-best last year or whatever, not the third-best, and would claim that he's now the 18th best or whatever ruck in the league.

We all see English’s strengths and weaknesses but there is also a grass in greener view going on. Ie what are our options:

Darcy to CB - when he went up against Sweet - who I was always a fan of but isn’t in the top 10 rucks in the comp. He was smashed. Does someone have his CB stats? Remember a few year ago when all we talked about in here was getting a decent ruck because we were getting belted every week in there. Didn’t work - English went in and didn’t dominate but was a lot better.

Lobb to CB. This was more possible a few weeks ago until Lobb found a new lease of life down back. Lobb seems a better CB ruckman - what are his stats like. We have seen an attempt by Bevo - prior to the switch back to run Lobb at CB with Tim forward and then depending on whether the ball goes forward (Lobb moves forward and Tim then goes on tot he ball) or we lose and Lobb follows into defence- this is an attempt at best of both worlds but Bevo hasn’t stuck with it - backing Tim in at CB - must be a reason.

Long term the potential rotation of Darcy and English to be the best 1:2 ruck duo in the comp is great.

We can already see in Darcy what English doesn’t have - competitive mongrel. Stars like Gawn have it - they are fair players but they will grind you into the ground and will own you in key moments - this make English look worse than the stats suggest - in big moments an opposition can control the ruck - win a fast clearance - tap to a fast moving small near goal and English looks like a kid. I am not sure what you do about this except that this aggression needs to be where he starts not trying to lift himself as a reaction - get in the first punch.

English covers the ground like Dean Cox and is a great mark - but he does seem to lack confidence and the aggro we think he needs - opposition rucks know that and just run straight at him to play the game on their terms. He doesn’t do the same or have another one wood to go for. He is 10 years in the system now - his strengths are his strength and his weaknesses need to be dealt with by other tactics than just ‘get better’.

Other rucks do have better CB stats but I doubt they are up with Tim on possessions and marks around the ground or goals. I would want Tim to just go harder on this - when he does this he can product off the charts CD contributions of the type very few players can. Yes he is a ruck first who needs to win taps but he is also a midfielder.

I would work a team approach around the three monsters we have - and play to each of their strengths. Darcy forward and eventually taking more CB, English on the ball, Lobb back and follows second ruck he is guarding down back into the ruck to give English a chop out. If English is getting smashed swing Lobb to Ruck, Darcy down back and English forward. If we practice these roles regularly we will have a capability no other team has.

 

[Mofra]

^ Against the cats last year English was getting smashed by Conway, and Lobb into the CB won us that game.
That's a fair comparison of their ruck abilities in the centre square at least

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I'm disappointed with his timing and his goal kicking. He's actually working hard off the ball to make position most games and his GPS numbers were up when they were posted earlier in the season.

I think the whole lazy/not working hard enough stuff is, in itself, lazy analysis.

If you are correct he needs to work his arse off today he has the skills.

 

[VitalDread]

Can y'all talk shit about Marra each week
Think he reads this thread

 

[LittleG]

Can y'all talk shit about Marra each week
Think he reads this thread

IF that’s what it takes…..

 

[BallaratBulldog]

It was warranted talk for the most part but good to see the response

 

[Claudonious]

English massive bagging, then JUH.who’s up next?

With all of their flaws, there are a few others that should be ahead of them in the bagging stakes.

I guess their contracts put them in the firing line - fair enough I guess.

Jamarra does tend to be very demonstrative with his team mates - in both a positive and negative way.

It would be great if he could slot a few easy goals and take hold of a game - he has the talent, but something isn’t quite there yet.

I hope he kicks 5 and English goes all postal on his opposing ruck and exposes them on the turnover.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

That aged like grange


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[VitalDread]

I'm a big anti English ruck role due to how he doesn't adept to physical rucks

Tonight was the prime example of his learning his craft
Controlled the game with his short routine and gave us first choice most of the night

Now time for him to back it up

 

[St 07]

That aged like grange


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

To be fair today brought out the bipolar in all of us

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Nothing like Stringer...he was a dead set flog

I was meaning he wanted to stay and we pushed him out

 

[lachy]

Can y'all talk shit about Marra each week
Think he reads this thread

Some of the crap written is actually embarrassing. The kid is 22 working his arse off but no where near his peak yet, hence the 2 year contract

On SM-S926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[lachy]

It was warranted talk for the most part but good to see the response

No, it wasn't warranted he is a developing footballer who missed a key year to covid. If he was 25 you may have an argument, he is not

On SM-S926B using BigFooty.com mobile app