Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Bald]

Alright this is the list of the 8 premiers in that 12 year period. I also added a basic breakdown of what each club did. I’ll try to break it down further in the future as I am curious to know how we fare against them in the draft and trade period.

Teams	Trades/Free Agency	National Draft Picks	Rookie Picks	Mid Season Picks	Total List Changes
Melbourne	43​	41​	23​	4​	111​
Sydney	20​	47​	35​	7​	109​
Collingwood	33​	44​	26​	6​	109​
Hawthorn	34​	39​	28​	7​	108​
Geelong	26​	49​	28​	2​	105​
West Coast	26​	48​	26​	5​	105​
Richmond	22​	43​	23​	7​	95​
Bulldogs	28​	46​	17​	3​	94​

The majority of them are making around 1 more change than us a year. The obvious odd one out here is Richmond and I think they’ve made a mistake recently. In the last 5 years they made just 34 changes which is a low number. The problem was they thought they were still in a premiership window when they really weren't the last few years and sold the farm for Tarranto and Hopper. The highest draft pick they had in the last two drafts was pick 40 so you can understand why they didn’t cut deep and it's hurt them in the long run.

I don't want to be disrespectful, I understand and respect the effort but I feel it's a bit of searching for something that isn't there.

When the large total list differential is really in the rookie picks and mid-season picks, we're grasping at straws a little bit aren't we? Those players rarely, if ever, change the fortunes of a club.

Free agency also isn't really kind to smaller Victorian clubs, and we've had a fairly compromised draft hand due to the matching requirements of two top two picks in seasons where we finished in 2nd and 8th position respectively.

 

[adogsfan5]

Kinda want Baz to stay, more so for the lols to the media if anything

 

[ossie_21]

Docherty injured his in the opening round of the season. Again, that is just a ridiculous time frame.

He may be willing to take the high risk given his age, Blues finals hopes and previous knee history but it’s not something we should consider.

Historically ACL’s in footy are considered 12-month injuries, so McStay is well ahead of that but isn’t the norm, though ACL’s are realistically 8-10 month injuries. Baz could absolutely return before the end of the season with his genetics, but most players are usually wiped out with late/off season ones, as they will miss so much footy, the season is basically done by the time they are up to speed.

It could happen with a few rounds left to go, but not likely due to clubs being a lot more conservative. And especially if he doesn’t plan to stay.

McStay is a little surprising as his was only 2 weeks before Baz, about 7 & 1/2 months. Another 4 weeks of rehab is round 22, 1 VFL game and he could play round 24 + finals if we were to make it. We’d know where we stand by then, definitely contract-wise if not clear already, but also where we are on the ladder. Keep in mind, we never actually placed him on the LTI list although he has been noted as “season” on the injury list since it happened.

 

[Brass Dog]

Sam Draper said players are leaving if Bevo stays and neutrals supporters said he was right. So it must be a matter of time players leave.

How amazing would it be to meet Essendon in a final following those comments.

 

[goodcop badcop]

I don't want to be disrespectful, I understand and respect the effort but I feel it's a bit of searching for something that isn't there.

When the large total list differential is really in the rookie picks and mid-season picks, we're grasping at straws a little bit aren't we? Those players rarely, if ever, change the fortunes of a club.

Free agency also isn't really kind to smaller Victorian clubs, and we've had a fairly compromised draft hand due to the matching requirements of two top two picks in seasons where we finished in 2nd and 8th position respectively.

What’s the point of keeping on Hayes and Cavarra year on year? Even younger players like Pearce, Greenwood, Prudden, Porter, Butler and Hamilton were never going to make it yet we kept them on a year too long. How does someone like Jarrad Grant stay on the list for 8 years. We all wanted him to be our tall forward saviour, but it was never going to happen, he should've been on the trade table. My issue is we should be turning these players over, we are nowhere near ruthless enough IMO.

The whole point of showing things like the rookie list is to show how little we use it compared to other teams. You can still find good players on the rookie list, Richmond for example drafted 4 rookies in 2014 and all 4 were premiership players! JJ and Dahlhaus were premiership players for us.

Look, I haven’t even touched the surface with this, some of it is probably useless information and that’s ok. You might not find any of it interesting and that’s ok. I do and I’m happy to share my research.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

I'd be stoked if Baz stays. His play style would be great in our "evolution". He's also been a super nice, genuine guy in the times I've met him. Shame he gets shit for his social media following - good on him!

I want him to re sign bad, as you said we are crying out for a future gun mid and we have one that people want to see the back of strangely enough, i have heard things about him from inside too that I'm loath to post on a forum site. but i know his high profile is something the club needs, being a not huge club like Collingwood or Carlton etc.

 

[Bald]

What’s the point of keeping on Hayes and Cavarra year on year? Even younger players like Pearce, Greenwood, Prudden, Porter, Butler and Hamilton were never going to make it yet we kept them on a year too long. How does someone like Jarrad Grant stay on the list for 8 years. We all wanted him to be our tall forward saviour, but it was never going to happen, he should've been on the trade table. My issue is we should be turning these players over, we are nowhere near ruthless enough IMO.

The whole point of showing things like the rookie list is to show how little we use it compared to other teams. You can still find good players on the rookie list, Richmond for example drafted 4 rookies in 2014 and all 4 were premiership players! JJ and Dahlhaus were premiership players for us.

Look, I haven’t even touched the surface with this, some of it is probably useless information and that’s ok. You might not find any of it interesting and that’s ok. I do and I’m happy to share my research.

You’re well within your rights to continue researching, just because I disagree with the premise that a larger turn over would’ve resulted in more success doesn’t mean I don’t find it very interesting and am intrigued by the numbers around it.

 

[cherrypie]

View attachment 2050018

I assume Oliver and Bailey are chasing bags hidden just off the picture

 

[fred cook]

How amazing would it be to meet Essendon in a final following those comments.

My ladder predictor has that scenario where we beat the Doms then play the Cats win that and play the Swans in a prem final.

 

[Libbaaaa]

What’s the point of keeping on Hayes and Cavarra year on year? Even younger players like Pearce, Greenwood, Prudden, Porter, Butler and Hamilton were never going to make it yet we kept them on a year too long. How does someone like Jarrad Grant stay on the list for 8 years. We all wanted him to be our tall forward saviour, but it was never going to happen, he should've been on the trade table. My issue is we should be turning these players over, we are nowhere near ruthless enough IMO.

The whole point of showing things like the rookie list is to show how little we use it compared to other teams. You can still find good players on the rookie list, Richmond for example drafted 4 rookies in 2014 and all 4 were premiership players! JJ and Dahlhaus were premiership players for us.

Look, I haven’t even touched the surface with this, some of it is probably useless information and that’s ok. You might not find any of it interesting and that’s ok. I do and I’m happy to share my research.

Geelong had at least 10 guys on their 2022 flag who they got with rookie picks are picks 40+ in the draft.

 

[bobs head soup]

My ladder predictor has that scenario where we beat the Doms then play the Cats win that and play the Swans in a prem final.

You must see the remaining games pretty similar to me Fred.

I had us finishing 7th (going 4-2 from here), meeting Essendon in our first final, then meeting Brisbane in our second final, then Swines Prelim, Carlton GF.

Weirdly, the first 2 finals would be identical to 2021 (although first final hopefully not played in Launceston).

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

It'd be great if all the guys we wanted to keep signed on this season. Would be great to put up those that were hoping for an exodus.

To show that Beveridge had lost the players

 

[willofwest]

What are peoples opinion of Harry Perryman

36

Harry Perryman

Age

25

Ht

187cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.5

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

7.1

4star

M

4.5

4star

T

2.8

4star

MG

216.2

3star

D

18.5

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

7.9

4star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.3

2star

MG

301.3

4star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.8

5star

MG

83.2

2star

from the Giants, I believe an unrestricted free agent. Might work as a half back who can also play mid field.

 

[Dog 36]

What are peoples opinion of Harry Perryman from the Giants, I believe an unrestricted free agent. Might work as a half back who can also play mid field.

Worth a look as Isaac Cummings would

 

[adogsfan5]

What are peoples opinion of Harry Perryman from the Giants, I believe an unrestricted free agent. Might work as a half back who can also play mid field.

Little bit meh for mine… not worth the money that’s being reported.

 

[VitalDread]

AFL website reporting:

Among other changes the AFL has put to clubs as proposed changes for 2024 include: rookies to have the capacity to remain on the rookie list for up to five years (increased from three) subject to games eligibility; introducing contract length as a key determinant in the free agency compensation formula; and allowing father-sons to be listed as rookies instead of senior-listed players if they do not receive a bid in the national draft.

There still remains differing views around when changes should be applied on draft’s bidding system, draft value index and the points discount for clubs.

The trading of picks two years in advance is expected to be brought into this year’s trade period, while trading of mid-season picks will likely come in next year, clubs were told.

 

[Unorth]

AFL website reporting:

Among other changes the AFL has put to clubs as proposed changes for 2024 include: rookies to have the capacity to remain on the rookie list for up to five years (increased from three) subject to games eligibility

The Lachie McNeil rule

 

[weltschmerz]

The Lachie McNeil rule

Roarke Smith

 

[bigdog54]

Geelong had at least 10 guys on their 2022 flag who they got with rookie picks are picks 40+ in the draft.

I see them as two different points though. You're right in that finding depth and talent in the later rounds is what differentiates a list build and often leads to success. The cats are a good example, as you mentioned.

The point the other poster was making is that we seem to hang on to fringe players too long. I don't know that we do, but I like the principle of turning the fringe players over more readily. It's a numbers game and the more shots you get at these later picks the better.

 

[Ash1337]

What are peoples opinion of Harry Perryman from the Giants, I believe an unrestricted free agent. Might work as a half back who can also play mid field.

Perryman want to play mid from rumors. Anyone who can guarantee midfield minutes will get his signature.

 

[Struggle]

Perryman want to play mid from rumors. Anyone who can guarantee midfield minutes will get his signature.

Is he even good enough to be a starting mid at any club? I can't think of more than 2 or 3
The money and length being thrown about for a player of that calibre is pretty insane

 

[threenewpadlocks]

What’s the point of keeping on Hayes and Cavarra year on year? Even younger players like Pearce, Greenwood, Prudden, Porter, Butler and Hamilton were never going to make it yet we kept them on a year too long. How does someone like Jarrad Grant stay on the list for 8 years. We all wanted him to be our tall forward saviour, but it was never going to happen, he should've been on the trade table. My issue is we should be turning these players over, we are nowhere near ruthless enough IMO.

The whole point of showing things like the rookie list is to show how little we use it compared to other teams. You can still find good players on the rookie list, Richmond for example drafted 4 rookies in 2014 and all 4 were premiership players! JJ and Dahlhaus were premiership players for us.

Look, I haven’t even touched the surface with this, some of it is probably useless information and that’s ok. You might not find any of it interesting and that’s ok. I do and I’m happy to share my research.

I think the point is given all the numbers are so close together I'm not sure there's much insight you can gain, especially when it's selectively cutting off at the 2012 season but not earlier seasons. We turned over the bottom end of the list significantly in 2009-10-11 (31 list changes across those three years), which naturally made the need of turnover in 2012 and 2013 not as necessary (14 across those 2 years). I have no idea where 09-10-11 ranks among the 18 clubs for us, but it's an average that's higher than the 12-year average for all clubs.

It's that old trick, and where people go wrong gambling on sports etc. where you say "player has 20 touches in 9 of his last 11 games" or whatever which you can guarantee that he got it exactly 11 games ago (hence it's not 8 of 10) and not 12 games ago (otherwise you would have said 9 or 10 of 12), and then people attribute the same weight to the last game and a game 11 games ago, and zero weight to a game 13 games ago.

I do agree that we have seemed to hold onto some contracts too long under Beveridge. The issue is that there's no proof that that seems to be a problem in itself, and even if it is, we have to accept that's part of the nature of Beveridge's "back in the players and trust them" mantra that would be less effective if we didn't make it a theme by giving contracts to blokes who buy the club and deserve it on the basis of attitude/chemistry, relative to actual on-field performances, more than an average club.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Historically ACL’s in footy are considered 12-month injuries, so McStay is well ahead of that but isn’t the norm, though ACL’s are realistically 8-10 month injuries. Baz could absolutely return before the end of the season with his genetics, but most players are usually wiped out with late/off season ones, as they will miss so much footy, the season is basically done by the time they are up to speed.

It could happen with a few rounds left to go, but not likely due to clubs being a lot more conservative. And especially if he doesn’t plan to stay.

McStay is a little surprising as his was only 2 weeks before Baz, about 7 & 1/2 months. Another 4 weeks of rehab is round 22, 1 VFL game and he could play round 24 + finals if we were to make it. We’d know where we stand by then, definitely contract-wise if not clear already, but also where we are on the ladder. Keep in mind, we never actually placed him on the LTI list although he has been noted as “season” on the injury list since it happened.

There'd be a few cases of players coming back early, it just so happens to occur in the off-season so it doesn't really get as much attention. Bob Murphy, for example, tore his ACL in our R3 game on 10 April 2016 and was back training full-time and theoretically fully fit and available for selection when the pre-season returned from the Christmas break in early Jan 2017 (so less than 9 months out).

But the talk was he was tracking extremely well and there was no need to rush the fitness/rehab side of things in the middle of pre-season and returning for the Christmas break was a natural goal to aim for, so he probably could have been back in 7-8 months if it was a similar situation to McStay, ie, getting games in a key push to finals/ladder position in the later part of the season.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Just on those list changes - you do need to look at age and performance.

I felt like we had tried to go for a flag and brought in old players like Hall, Hudson, Walsh to try and finish the puzzle for a flag in 09-10-11. 2016 we had a young team but could have used more players in their prime from those years before had we drafted a bit better or not traded away as much.

By 2017/18 we had age gap yet again which again showed up both from retirements and some from injury/mental health with Morris, both Boyds, Murphy, Clay Smith

Clay Smith

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.8

4star

K

7.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

4.8

5star

G

0.8

4star

No current season stats available

D

10.6

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

0.8

4star

and so on leaving.

Do we still have age unbalance now? I think it’s more positional need.

 

[Ash1337]

Just on those list changes - you do need to look at age and performance.

I felt like we had tried to go for a flag and brought in old players like Hall, Hudson, Walsh to try and finish the puzzle for a flag in 09-10-11. 2016 we had a young team but could have used more players in their prime from those years before had we drafted a bit better or not traded away as much.

By 2017/18 we had age gap yet again which again showed up both from retirements and some from injury/mental health with Morris, both Boyds, Murphy, Clay Smith and so on leaving.

Do we still have age unbalance now? I think it’s more positional need.

It's more positional but it's bought on constant injuries to certain players that is the reason. Jones, Keath, Gardner, JJ, all had injuries in the last couple of years. 3 kpds and a rebounding half back that are hard to replace when they get injured. Doesn't help when JOD & Coffield go down too. Lobb with Croft & Busslinger next year will help cover things but another kpd for depth is a must. Also the other positional need is a wing because none of the wings have cemented a spot there. It's a rotating door on who plays wing in the side atm. Williams get thrown down back and forward too in games. Then last position is another weightman type. A player with energy that brings in team mates. A pure excitement machine.