AFL RDT Trades and injuries discussion 2023

[guero]

I'm struggling to figure out my plans this week. 2 trades, 21k left. Exposed in ruck with no playing cover, but also not sure if having a Darcy Cam/Jackson as that cover will be particularly useful given Marshall seems more likely to be a late withdrawal than a named omission and he's got the 7th, 8th, 8th & 6th games of the round over the next 4 - so the ruck cover will most of the time play before him and be unable to be shifted (and the list of rucks we couldmove Marshall to with an emergency trade would be small as most are locked out by when he plays).

Tempted to go to Gawn straight up to mitigate risk, but then if Grundy comes back I'm stuck with it.

With Darcy out for the year, is Luke Jackson a play? I'm probably only interested if he could be an F4/5/6 level scorer

Currently have Gulden/Taz/Butters/Rozee/Dunkley forward, Cogs sitting in the mids, and Sheezel sitting forward. even if Sheezel goes back, don't need the forward as Cogs can go there, but if Jackson's going to be a 100 guy, he might be the best scorer I could get in a sideways for Will Day anyway?

Laird looks like he'll play - but if he doesn't, tempted to just trade him out for Jack Steele. Annoyingly can't see Mills's cover score before I decide if I'm trading Laird or not.

5 weeks left - is it worth burning a luxury trade on an inconvenience? It's probably either Will Day (can get him to Short if he returns, Jelly, Atkins or Flanders as PODs, Luke Jackson, Amon as a POD in this new role, and probably Touk if I wait a week) or Noah Anderson (don't love the options - Viney, Houston, Duggan, LDU, Treloar).

No path to Sicily unless I burn both remaining trades. No path to Parish unless I burn Laird or Cogs. No path to Steele unless I burn Brayshaw, Laird or Neale. And they're the only 3 premiums I'm keen on that I don't have.

Pending teams, if I was in your position I’d hold this week. Full premo and a strong bench with a couple of trades leaves you in a good position for the inevitable injuries/management as teams out of finals contention put the cue in the rack for the season.

 

[Skippos]

Pending teams, if I was in your position I’d hold this week. Full premo and a strong bench with a couple of trades leaves you in a good position for the inevitable injuries/management as teams out of finals contention put the cue in the rack for the season.

Leaning the same way, just figure I'm chasing the guys ahead not defending, so if the suspected carnage doesn't eventuate, I'd just be wasting the assets

 

[guero]

Leaning the same way, just figure I'm chasing the guys ahead not defending, so if the suspected carnage doesn't eventuate, I'd just be wasting the assets

Yep, I understand. I’d probably hold this weekend (assuming Laird plays and no nasty surprises) and look to trade next weekend.

 

[Skippos]

Yep, I understand. I’d probably hold this weekend (assuming Laird plays and no nasty surprises) and look to trade next weekend.

Think it's the smart play, in part assisted by the dearth of good options this year - not like last year where it felt like the groupthink premiums were torching us collectively while a few sneaky uniques were the blokes to have.

Don't feel great about any of LDU, Crouch, Petracca, Viney, Libba, Nic Martin, Duncan, McCluggage, NWM, Touk, Josh Kelly - none are clear top 8 guys.

Parish is safe, but expensive. Steele is good, but there's still risk at that price given his last 18 months. Ryan probably safe by now, as well, but not banging the door down vs the other top 6 guys. Ditto Houston. Daniel solid, but our FWD/DEFs are all full and Bevo is a nightmare. I like Treloar the most, but injuries are a nightmare. Amon and Newman interesting, but very risky.

Flanders honestly kinda feels like the safest bet. Luke Jackson almost too.

Jayden Short at 793k is the interesting one for me. averaged 104 in the 9 matches before he did the hammy. If he comes back this week, plays Melbourne this week and will drop in price. Then has one more price drop in him, but versing the Bulldogs, so either get him in a week early, or the next week when their run is StK then North (finishing with Port away - which is yucky).

Reckon maybe the play is to hold, and switch either Day or even Mills to Short next week if he's got the role back and looks good. Could be a really sneaky POD.

 

[Wels Eicke]

Need to trade Ashcroft. Annoyingly can't quite afford Dunkley or Merrett. Could go Sicily, will leave me one trade and exactly zero dollars. Other options are Brayshaw, Serong or Petracca. Leaning towards Serong, though a tough game today at Geelong. Pretty sure I'll pick the lowest scorer.

 

[guero]

If Green misses again I’ll trade him to Dunks. If Green plays I’ll hold.

 

[tigs2010]

If Green misses again I’ll trade him to Dunks. If Green plays I’ll hold.

Look at you with your trades and stuff

 

[guero]

Look at you with your trades and stuff

I know right? I’m just showing off.

 

[tigs2010]

I know right? I’m just showing off.

Ridiculous. I should have unfollowed this thread 6 weeks ago

 

[Skippos]

2505. Out of Eliminator, and down to 13th overall. Dropped a good bit of ground on the top 20 sides.

Taranto captain absolutely killed me. Had faith that his recent run was just variance and not a new role/injury/something not right, but clearly it is. Can't trust him - a 75 point swing to those who had English. Bont, Doch, Butters, Neale all unpleasant too.

2 trades, 21k. Thinking I need to be aggressive now. Using them for non-injury reasons now feels a little bit of a waste given I could have used them 3 weeks ago and been in a better position for it, but still a better result than not using them at all if no injuries come.

Neale probably the one to go. Fringe top 8 anyway, and blueprint been set for oppositions on how to deal with him. Just who i turn him into if I do move. Can only afford Jelly, Treloar, Flanders, Miller, Green (if he's back this week) of note. Newman or Luke Jackson

9

Luke Jackson

Age

23

Ht

199cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

2star

K

3.3

1star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

2star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.3

3star

K

3.3

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

in other positions as uniques.

Worth it? Or not worth it given the options. Other option is to burn both, either Johnson down to a rookie to turn Neale into anyone, or shuffle deckchairs and fade a premium with cash on their head (Taranto? Daicos with tags looming? Marshall or English to Gawn?) to free up some cash to then turn Neale into a Parish or a Steele or a Sicily or a Viney or a LDU

 

[guero]

2505. Out of Eliminator, and down to 13th overall. Dropped a good bit of ground on the top 20 sides.

Taranto captain absolutely killed me. Had faith that his recent run was just variance and not a new role/injury/something not right, but clearly it is. Can't trust him - a 75 point swing to those who had English. Bont, Doch, Butters, Neale all unpleasant too.

2 trades, 21k. Thinking I need to be aggressive now. Using them for non-injury reasons now feels a little bit of a waste given I could have used them 3 weeks ago and been in a better position for it, but still a better result than not using them at all if no injuries come.

Neale probably the one to go. Fringe top 8 anyway, and blueprint been set for oppositions on how to deal with him. Just who i turn him into if I do move. Can only afford Jelly, Treloar, Flanders, Miller, Green (if he's back this week) of note. Newman or Luke Jackson in other positions as uniques.

Worth it? Or not worth it given the options. Other option is to burn both, either Johnson down to a rookie to turn Neale into anyone, or shuffle deckchairs and fade a premium with cash on their head (Taranto? Daicos with tags looming? Marshall or English to Gawn?) to free up some cash to then turn Neale into a Parish or a Steele or a Sicily or a Viney or a LDU

I’d burn both trades so you can get Neale up to someone you really like.

 

[guero]

Tommy G is back, so I’ll hold my 1 remaining trade for now.

27 green dots!

 

[tigs2010]

Tommy G is back, so I’ll hold my 1 remaining trade for now.

27 green dots!

I think my opponent held him so hopefully he does a hammy if he has. I’ll check, come back and unwish it for you if he isn’t an owner.

 

[TheRednWhite]

Eliminator opponent has Touk...hopefully he has no more trades left and has to rely on Keays as cover

 

[Bradkli]

Nick daicos out for 6 weeks!

 

[TheRednWhite]

Nick daicos out for 6 weeks!

No cover for me. 3 weeks of donuts. A fitting end I guess

 

[guero]

Daics to Sic looking like the go for my last trade.

 

[Dazza the Viking]

Glad I held my last trade for the past 3 weeks, Daicos to who I can afford

 

[SELFCONFESDAFLNERD]

all out of trades but dont mind Daicos missing too much as ive got Wagner & Ziebell at D6/D7 so i can play both

 

[Skippos]

Be interesting to see how many of the top handful are out of trades and have to hold Daicos.

I’ll be able to shift him, but will need to burn both to get him to Sicily. So could do that, or could (provided Daicos drop/Green rise is less than 130k combined) go straight to Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

. But that would require keeping Sheezel as D6.

Hayden Young

26

Hayden Young

Age

23

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

3star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.2

3star

T

1.4

2star

MG

160.0

3star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.6

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

MG

160.0

3star

could be an interesting unique in this mid role? Or Jayden Short

15

Jayden Short

Age

29

Ht

178cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.4

4star

K

13.3

5star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.5

3star

MG

430.8

5star

D

19.0

4star

K

14.1

5star

HB

4.9

3star

M

6.3

5star

T

0.8

1star

MG

447.1

5star

D

7.8

2star

K

6.4

3star

HB

1.4

2star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.4

4star

MG

185.2

3star

?

 

[tigs2010]

Be interesting to see how many of the top handful are out of trades and have to hold Daicos.

I’ll be able to shift him, but will need to burn both to get him to Sicily. So could do that, or could (provided Daicos drop/Green rise is less than 130k combined) go straight to Tom Green. But that would require keeping Sheezel as D6.

Hayden Young could be an interesting unique in this mid role? Or Jayden Short?

Short will have Saints then North but would expect a rubbish last score against Port

 

[guero]

Be interesting to see how many of the top handful are out of trades and have to hold Daicos.

I’ll be able to shift him, but will need to burn both to get him to Sicily. So could do that, or could (provided Daicos drop/Green rise is less than 130k combined) go straight to Tom Green. But that would require keeping Sheezel as D6.

Hayden Young could be an interesting unique in this mid role? Or Jayden Short?

I don’t mind Young, just brought him in to my fantasy team.

 

[Skippos]

I don’t mind Young, just brought him in to my fantasy team.

Yeah, I'm tossing it up. Mid season I was saying that he's the most similar in build player to Dawson in the comp - good size, great kick, great mark, solid runner, made of tough stuff - and was surprised he'd never been tried there. And it looks to work.

JL's comments were interesting - they think he adds something different to the midfield mix with the bigger body/good mix between offence and defence and left foot, and he's done enough to continue with it.

I don't think he's strictly tagging, just doing that Dunkley role. But only 83 vs Geelong is hardly groundbreaking, so how much do you read into that vs the 10 tackle game v Brisbane.

I'm tempted purely because I don't want to burn a second trade to go up to Sicily - but then again, Sicily this week could go bananas. Would probably be open to it if I could use the cash to turn Sheezel into Sicily by going Daicos to Young, but I'm bloody 2.5k short.

Narrowed down my options to this:

A) Burn one trade on Daicos, carry one over
1) Defender and cash grab - Short (and 149k) or Young (and 156k)
2) Good defender - Newman (and 42k) or NWM (and 39k)
3) FWD via Sheezel DPP - Flanders (and 113k) or Jackson (and 153k)
4) Full send - Ziebell (and 362k)
5) To a MID - LDU (and 13k), Treloar (and 16k), Green (and 26k) or Jelly (and 99k)

B) Burn both trades to turn Daicos into a big dog, and trade out a sub optimal premium
6) To Sicily via (Day to Short/Young)
7) To Sicily via (Laird to Parish/LDU/Green/Treloar/Jelly)
8) To Sicily via (Neale/Noah Anderson to Short/Young/Jackson)
9) To Sicily via (Sheezel to a flier - Ziebell, Jezza, Bazlenka, Nic Martin, Dyl Moore, Zorko, Walsh if named, Lloyd, Redman)
10) To Petracca/Libba via (Sheezel to Short/Young)
11) To Parish via (Laird to Petracca/Libba)
12) Any of the above via (Mills as 23rd man down to Hewett/Simpkin/Hunter Clark/Ziebell)
13) Any of the above via (Matt Johnson to a cheaper rookie)

A bit dense, but it's a complex one. There's appeal in fading Sicily given I've already missed the good scores and everyone will go there this week. Going to Luke Jackson means I have ruck cover if English/Marshall miss, removes liability. And #12 going to Ziebell is kinda fun but risky, but also means I can DPP swap him and Sheezel if Sheez turns to shit. Only issue is my D7-8 is Worrell/Cincotta and F7-8 is Cuningham/Ford, so currently I have no way to loop Ziebell.

Leaning #1, #5 (Green), #8 (Anderson to Jackson) or #12 (Mills to Ziebell)

 

[guero]

I can see the value in holding a trade for now. Other than that

 

[Skippos]

I can see the value in holding a trade for now. Other than that

Agree, though slightly offset for me given I have Worrell/Cincotta/Mills/Johnson/Ford/Cuningham covering on the pine, so can cover/loop any injuries hopefully.

But Daicos this week will probably force a trade for everyone who has one left, and doubt anyone else at the pointy end will be left with one to cover chaos when/if it arises.

Maybe could wait until mid round/sunday to burn a second trade as by then 65% of my guys will have had a chance to be injured (and hopefully haven't been!)