Triple J Hottest 100 2023 - Betting Thread.

[freo_leo29]

Just a heads up, Dom Dolla has just done the festival season, it certainly has bumped others up the last few years

Flume/Maya

Rufus (in the decade count)

 

[Swansong05]

I thought jjj was more worried about cancelling Australia Day and not offending minorities . The music is rubbish and has been for the best part of 2 decades.

 

[ronpingwins]

Top 3 for Rush value on Betfair?

 

[JT_the_Man]

I’d be willing to bet the top 3 is Rhyme Dust, Rush and Paint The Town Red so if you can get value on any of those for top 3, take it.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

For those betting on anything not named Paint The Town Red/Rhyme Dust, your best bet is almost 100% on PointsBet. Got far bigger odds for most songs than the other books.

Got on Rush at $34 thanks to this, leading the way on WT at the moment. Has twice the percentage of votes than Doja cat, and 6% more than Rhyme Dust, pretty solid gap.

There’ll be a lot of movement from the current top 10 though, I dont see Genesis Owusu, Jungle, Teen Jesus or Angie McMahon staying in the 10.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

First time I’ve ever thought Warmtunas is way off the mark. That list is all over the place.

You just know Drake, SZA and Doja Cat will have a lot more songs than that…..way too many “alternative” tracks there and not enough Tic Toc

 

[JT_the_Man]

Yep I’d say it’s massively skewed towards certain demographics atm, moreso than usual. The sample size is pretty small, but seeing greedy which is probably one of the bigger songs of the year down in the 90s is laughable.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I’d be willing to bet the top 3 is Rhyme Dust, Rush and Paint The Town Red so if you can get value on any of those for top 3, take it.

Surely Paint the Town Red is 'over' now, like it was a two-month wonder but overplayed and overly saccharine, poppy and US means that most voters surely aren't flocking to it.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

First time I’ve ever thought Warmtunas is way off the mark. That list is all over the place.

You just know Drake, SZA and Doja Cat will have a lot more songs than that…..way too many “alternative” tracks there and not enough Tic Toc

I don’t really feel it’s more or less accurate than the last couple of years, when the number of votes he’s counting dropped off by a large amount. Followed WM for long enough now that biases towards certain genres and what not aren’t a surprise, and I look at with those biases already in mind. It’s the same every year now that it leans to the more dedicated who post their votes online rather than the every person like in years gone by.

For example, heavy songs always perform poorly on the day compared to WT, as do LGBT songs (outside of G Flip), whether performed by LGBT members or have a large LGBT support.

Its why I’m not entirely confident on Troye Sivan just yet.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Almost tempted to money on No LAVs at $11 on SB. Slowly Slowly are high up but they’ll drop drastically, Teenage Dads are probably going to be the highest of them but wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t make it.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Surely Paint the Town Red is 'over' now, like it was a two-month wonder but overplayed and overly saccharine, poppy and US means that most voters surely aren't flocking to it.

It’s still a $1.70 fav for a reason, I’d be very surprised if it was outside the top 5.

 

[JT_the_Man]

91 and 100 are separated by 2 votes on Warm Tunas.

Only 100 votes separating 100 and 20.

Sample size is absolutely tiny.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Rhyme Dust currently $6 on Lads, longest I’ve seen it.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Tunas have the adjusted model up now with… Interesting results. (Rhyme Dust finding a way to go down the list was very unexpected…)

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

SB have posted their H2Hs, some enticing ones. Nanana at $2 against Prada at 1.72, Boys a Liar at $2.25 against Letting Go at 1.57.

Not really feeling like dumping a lot of money on H2Hs this year though.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Most songs in Countdown? Does Rodrigo fall in because every other album is below average?

 

[Spanish Sahara]

SB have posted their H2Hs, some enticing ones. Nanana at $2 against Prada at 1.72, Boys a Liar at $2.25 against Letting Go at 1.57.

Not really feeling like dumping a lot of money on H2Hs this year though.

Nanana already into $1.8

 

[JT_the_Man]

vampire $3 to beat The Worst Person Alive feels pretty big overs.

Rumble $2.70 against What Was I Made For? as well.

 

[JT_the_Man]

If you like Not Strong Enough to live up to the Tunas hype, it’s $2.40 against Kill Bill.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

If you like Not Strong Enough to live up to the Tunas hype, it’s $2.40 against Kill Bill.

Never even heard of him.

 

[freo_leo29]

vampire $3 to beat The Worst Person Alive feels pretty big overs.

Rumble $2.70 against What Was I Made For? as well.

Billie always overpolls so not sure on the second one

 

[JT_the_Man]

Billie always overpolls so not sure on the second one

I’m backing in a Fred theory here, he’s blown up and became a a lot more mainstream since the last voting period. But yeah smart money probably doesn’t go against Billie.

 

[ash_1050]

Rhyme Dust is my pick, but disclaimer I'm in my mid 30s and don't listen to Triple J that often.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Sportsbet have started their BYOs, pretty useless as expected.

 

[JT_the_Man]

Sportsbet have started their BYOs, pretty useless as expected.

Jeez, there’s bad markets and then there is whatever that is.