Two hardest tips for the round - (WB vs Melb) and (NM vs StK)

[10571z]

Bulldogs and North melbourne.

Saints season = over.

 

[FishingRick04]

The system's got St.Kilda at 52% likelihood, which essentially means it's line ball. While Melbourne are at 58%.

Since publishing the likelihoods (from Round 8) it's got an 83% correct record for close games with likelihoods under 60% (5-1). That game lost was North v Sydney - which North really should have won.

Hopefully it will continue.

What's this system you speak of?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

OP doesn't think Collingwood vs Hawthorn is a hard tip?

 

[mfc150]

I don't buy into the whole "Melbourne can't win at ETIHAD" debate. For years we hardly won anywhere.

Without having a detailed look at the team I would hazard a guess that over half the side will have played 0-1 game there.

If we tackle like we did last week I would expect us to win.

And North Melbourne.

 

[FishingRick04]

OP doesn't think Collingwood vs Hawthorn is a hard tip?

Woods and Geelong will never go against this season same ass I wont pick Port

 

[syl]

What's this system you speak of?

ELO Power Rankings, very good system, ran by Alibi

 

[strategy]

I went the Dogs as i think their backs and mids are better than the Dees fwds and mids .

The Saints have a more mature team than North .The only worry for me re the Saints is their lack of speed.Fisher is outstanding for them as is Petrie for North.The Saints have better bench players .
Saints to win .

 

[THRILLHO]

Always good to see the usual suspects underrating North yet again. Chances are, the only time most on this board have seen as play was against Collingwood, as pretty much the rest of our games have been on fox and we were slaughtered.

We're a much better team now then we were then.

I'm a bit worried about Reiwoldt. Historically has done well against us and with Delaney out we dont have a clear match up.

Cant see anyone on Saints list who will quell Petrie.

Goldstein will have a field day in the ruck. One of our most important players. Reason why we're so good in clearances.

Greenwood and Bastinac coming back have made us a four goal better team.

Hope Jones goes to Harvey and they leave Wells free.

I'm going with Melbourne. They suck at Etihad, but they have some wins on the board and are playing with confidence. Youth to win.

 

[Plugger35]

North are no certainties, as they are a young side and are prone to go missing at times, but I just can't see how StKilda could be viewed as favorites when you look at their line up and take in to account their game plan. Can I get some answers for these questions?

1) Who will St Kilda put on Petrie, and can they do the job?

2)StKilda have to contend with Pederson, Edwards and Hansen. Who will stop them clunking marks?

3) How will St Kilda limit the influence of Goldstein and his supply to the in form Swallow, Wells and Ziebell?

4) Will Nicky Dal be able to overcome the close checking of Levi Greenwood (Who has kept Dal Santo to 9 and 21 possessions in their two meetings)?

5) How will St Kilda get through the North press?

IMO, St Kilda will need to kick 100+ points to beat North at Docklands and they have only averaged 89 points a match v all comers in 2011. I honestly can't see the Saints getting up without 8 or more goals coming from Reiwoldt, Milne and Scheider, the loss of Koschitzke exposes Reiwoldt to greater scrutiny and North have a very good shut down option for Milne in Brady Rawlings.

Thoughts?

Agree. For mine, the goals that will hurt the Saints will come through Boomer and LT. Both are capable of kicking goals quickly and with the Saints having to shut down Wells and Swallow as first priorities, I just don't see how they can quell Boomers class. Reckon Lindsay will get a few "over the top" goals.

Would like to see Ziebell go to Goddard too. Just run with him all day.

Anyone would think you guys are unbeatable at the top of the ladder and we are wooden spooners the way you two are carrying on.

I'm not saying we are certainties to win but we beat you comfortably both times last year so I don't see why all of a sudden we will be unable to match you 12 months on.

North maybe on a bit of a winning streak at the moment but they haven't beaten any really decent opposition, they will get a much sterner test on Sunday of where they are at.

 

[ziad]

The two hardest tips this round in my opinion are:

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne (Etihad)
North Melbourne vs St Kilda (Etihad)

Who will win, and WHY?

The AFL should ban schizophrenic clubs or require clubs to advise what personality will be playing each weekend. If the good meltank tun up they win, if the bruse free one turns up Dogs by 60 points.

 

[Walsh Bay]

Don't go on reputations, go on form.

North and Melbourne.

 

[Dazb86]

I went the Dogs as i think their backs and mids are better than the Dees fwds and mids .

The Saints have a more mature team than North .The only worry for me re the Saints is their lack of speed.Fisher is outstanding for them as is Petrie for North.The Saints have better bench players .
Saints to win .

Reputations aside it's closer than you think. We've largely been horrible this season. Does Melbourne employ the frontal zone? If not we are in for a real chance.

 

[syl]

Reputations aside it's closer than you think. We've largely been horrible this season. Does Melbourne employ the frontal zone? If not we are in for a real chance.

Yes we do, and we've finally got it over the last month.

 

[Teffy]

Anyone would think you guys are unbeatable at the top of the ladder and we are wooden spooners the way you two are carrying on.

I'm not saying we are certainties to win but we beat you comfortably both times last year so I don't see why all of a sudden we will be unable to match you 12 months on.

North maybe on a bit of a winning streak at the moment but they haven't beaten any really decent opposition, they will get a much sterner test on Sunday of where they are at.

Feel free to address my questions whenever you like.

 

[lewdogs]

Admittedly Petrie is a very good player, but we also happen to have the best CHB in the league at the moment.

This will be a good game, hoping that Roo can find some form.

For the tips... I'm going with the Dogs and North Melbourne, although I think there is a real chance of us finding some form and smashing the Kangas.

 

[MaddAdam]

Admittedly Petrie is a very good player, but we also happen to have the best CHB in the league at the moment.

Lucky Drew is playing as a monster close to goal forward then.

 

[Lemma]

Clint Jones will go to Boomer, another tagger (Farren Ray?) to Wells.

 

[MaddAdam]

Clint Jones will go to Boomer, another tagger (Farren Ray?) to Wells.

Jones won't get the easy run on Boomer he did back in Rd2 last year.

 

[Tas]

I think we will beat the Saints because we are a much more even side than we used to be. In the last few years if you shut down Swallow, Harvey and Wells then it was pretty much game over.

Port last week pretty much did that, made it a huge focus to shut down those three in particular and we just saw Ziebell, Greenwood and Bastinac in particular step up in the middle and that broke the shackles.

Up forward we have the flexibility to push Petrie, Pedersen, Hansen and Edwards forward, if the ball comes in fast and direct I don't think the Saints have the defenders that one-on-one will shut them down.

Without Hayes, who usually kills us, and Reiwoldt/Goddard not in career best form and teams coming off a bye tend to be a bit sluggish and our starts to games are typically pretty good if we can bust the game open in the first quarter then I think the contest will be over at 1/4 time even though I can't see us winning by a big score. However, Saints don't usually do well chasing a big score.

However, if the Saints can deploy their squirrel grip game-plan from the start and keep it to a close, ugly contest with 15 players behind the ball then they might get the chocolates.

 

[mattys123]

Don't go on reputations, go on form.

North and Melbourne.

Yep, exactly my thoughts.

And add the bye to the Saints vs Kangas match and I can't see that game going any other way then to the Roos.

Dogs could win tonight if everything went right (fit Cooney for 100% of the match, Grant actually gets a kick at senior level etc), but if Melbourne play anywhere near their capabilities they win easily IMO.

 

[mark73]

Anyone would think you guys are unbeatable at the top of the ladder and we are wooden spooners the way you two are carrying on.

I'm not saying we are certainties to win but we beat you comfortably both times last year so I don't see why all of a sudden we will be unable to match you 12 months on.

North maybe on a bit of a winning streak at the moment but they haven't beaten any really decent opposition, they will get a much sterner test on Sunday of where they are at.

I agree, but we'll be ok. I'm not saying we'll win, but I think we'll handle it better than we may have 12-18 months ago.

 

[Rik E Boy]

North - Saints coming off a bye and that has been a factor this season.
Dogs - Demons haven't gotten near it at the Dome for a long time although they are due. Very tough to pic k that one as the Dees are starting to get their act together.

 

[THRILLHO]

I think we will beat the Saints because we are a much more even side than we used to be. In the last few years if you shut down Swallow, Harvey and Wells then it was pretty much game over.

Port last week pretty much did that, made it a huge focus to shut down those three in particular and we just saw Ziebell, Greenwood and Bastinac in particular step up in the middle and that broke the shackles.

Not only is North more even, they also have three of the top players in the competition in their side. Plus Petrie and Harvey in great form.

Wells, Goldstein and Swallow are all in the top 10-15 players as ranked by Champion Data.

Having said that, not sure if we're a top 5-8 side yet. We still haven't beaten anyone of note. Thought Essendon might have been our first big scalp, but they have shown they're still a bottom 4 side.

Beating St Kilda by three goals will be a big announcement from North.

 

[BACCS]

Hard to dismiss the form of the Kangas, I think they'll win comfortably. Bulldogs have been ok in the past 2 weeks, but they haven't beaten much, Melbourne SHOULD win.

 

[The Warden]

Bulldogs - Melbourne suck at Etihad and are an inconsistent bunch. Lets put things into perspective - they beat Freo who can't travel and Richmond who had just had a month on the road. If it was at the MCG, i'd tip the Dees.

North Melbourne - Norths are in good form , the Saints are not. Historically (going off this year's results), teams coming off the bye struggle.

Having said that, both games could go the other way, but thats how I rationalised my tips.