Opinion When are you willing to call a game "over"

[Purple7x08_24]

After the Port win, Campbell Brown

Campbell Brown

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by memory call the game 5 seconds before Rioli kicked the goal.

The old saying it's not over until the fat lady sings might not be relevant given 19 on the field no longer resets the score.

So when is it time to make the call.

I think 14 points is still gettable so long as you leave 40 seconds to get the last two like Port did. In perfect circumstances a team can score a goal in 6 to 8 seconds from centre bounce. Then there's 50m penalties free kicks etc.

Obviously nailing centre bounces repeatedly is hard but still possible.

I'd say 28 points for 2 minutes and I'd call the game barring some stupid double goal. Even 21 points is gettable so long as the goal comes immediately.

36 points for 3 minutes.

 

[ibd77]

"revo s'ti" says Rex Hunt.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

After the Port win, Campbell Brown by memory call the game 5 seconds before Rioli kicked the goal.

The old saying it's not over until the fat lady sings might not be relevant given 19 on the field no longer resets the score.

So when is it time to make the call.

I think 14 points is still gettable so long as you leave 40 seconds to get the last two like Port did. In perfect circumstances a team can score a goal in 6 to 8 seconds from centre bounce. Then there's 50m penalties free kicks etc.

Obviously nailing centre bounces repeatedly is hard but still possible.

I'd say 28 points for 2 minutes and I'd call the game barring some stupid double goal. Even 21 points is gettable so long as the goal comes immediately.

36 points for 3 minutes.

Nothing these days for teams to score two goals in a minute with 6-6 rule.

Get's progressively harder I imagine as you span out e.g.. 3 in 2 min, 4 in 3 mins etc..

Having said that, a lead of 5 goals with 10 minutes to play is very 'do-able' these days.

 

[Toump Ass]

Depends on the game really. Who has momentum etc, whether the team who are chasing the lead have belief.

I'd usually back the Pies to at least make a game of it if they're two goals down with a minute to play.

Watching the Dees on the weekend, I turned off the TV in the first quarter, was obvious to me we weren't up to it.

Lions/Richmond game was over before the bounce.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Lethals formula is a goal a minute, less than that is over.

 

[Roobs321]

I’ve got no issue with Brown saying that. You can know that two goals in thirty seconds is doable, but still very unlikely. ‘Game over’ or ‘winning goal’ or whatever is usually said with more nuance than literal, you generally speak to the game complexion and percentages. Great escapes seldom happen. If you become too scared to declare because a miraculous Bradbury might happen or there is still a mathematical sliver then it’s just going to kill the call. When the miracles do happen we get a consequent sharp thrill and jawdrop disbelief as reward.

 

[St 07]

When the fat lady sings

 

[hawkman]

Lethals formula is a goal a minute, less than that is over.

Sadly didn't work on Sunday

 

[jakson68]

When Richmond run through the banner.

 

[I Dont Care]

The golden formula to go by is Shit Happens.

 

[Shade]

The game has changed a lot usually id say 40 odd points behind is over but the way teams park the bus after they get to that just isn't the case.

Coaches need to stop trying to "play out the game" and continue to play the way that got them 40 odd points ahead.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

For our games this year, 5-6 months before the first bounce.

 

[Shane Heard]

6-6-6 has changed everything

 

[Rich01]

When Richmond run through the banner.

Haha wasn’t far off on Sat night.
Was about 4 mins into the first quarter.

 

[mike ross]

Ten goals up with a minute to go.

 

[Ed_Gein]

According to Dwayne Russell a team could be 5 goals up with a minute left, yet "there's still time if they're good enough" for the trailing team to win. So...

 

[kreuze_missile]

When Carlton kick the first 5 goals it’s generally over.. for us…

 

[threesixpio]

When you’re up by 11 points with 1:30 to go and


Oh wait

 

[Dirty Bird]

After St Kilda vs Fremantle 2006, about 4 days after the event.

 

[threesixpio]

The game has changed a lot usually id say 40 odd points behind is over but the way teams park the bus after they get to that just isn't the case.

Coaches need to stop trying to "play out the game" and continue to play the way that got them 40 odd points ahead.

 

[kozi]

When Rex Hunt calls it

 

[kozi]

Lethals formula is a goal a minute, less than that is over.

Almost like he's never seen a game of footy before. Like 2 goals in a min or 3 in 2 min has never happened

 

[Shade]

Honestly, I tend to feel confident in almost any side (bar the bottom four teams) when they hold a 2-3 goal halftime lead.
Statistically speaking, and the bookmakers know this, teams that hold such a lead going into the long break will invariably win the game.

Id argue that is totally false this season.

Ive never seen more teams come back from backs against the wall type stuff

 

[Gumby2Hurley]

Against the pies? never
Against the saints? first to 8 goals

 

[TheGhostOfJohnBelushi]

After the Port win, Campbell Brown by memory call the game 5 seconds before Rioli kicked the goal.

The old saying it's not over until the fat lady sings might not be relevant given 19 on the field no longer resets the score.

So when is it time to make the call.

I think 14 points is still gettable so long as you leave 40 seconds to get the last two like Port did. In perfect circumstances a team can score a goal in 6 to 8 seconds from centre bounce. Then there's 50m penalties free kicks etc.

Obviously nailing centre bounces repeatedly is hard but still possible.

I'd say 28 points for 2 minutes and I'd call the game barring some stupid double goal. Even 21 points is gettable so long as the goal comes immediately.

36 points for 3 minutes.

Huh? What math is this?

14 points with how long left? 40 seconds? Nope, game over.

28 points with 2 minutes? Definitely over. 21 points? Also definitely over.

36 in 3 minutes????

You do realise a goal is 6 points right?

You'd need to be within x+1 goals with X amount of time remaining. Key point is within, otherwise a draw is probably the best result you can get.

But then it becomes exponentially harder the greater X is, so realistically the equation only comes into play in the last few minutes. 4 probably the absolute max (would mean 5 goals in 4 minutes).