Why every top 4 prediction is wrong.

[Mead]

Looks like you've been ripped off, Mead.

http://www.footygoss.com.au/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=17009

...! Posted around 6 hours after me.

Obviously predicting the ladder is in vogue at this time of the year, most people either
a.) Pull a ladder out of their rear end on the basis of their own prejudices or likes, dislikes and gut feelings
b.) Go through and tip game by game using a ladder predictor program.

Predicting the ladder at this time of the year is obviously difficult, but who are the most likely contenders for the top four places in 2005?

When most people envisage the final four teams in the competition, they usually rely on gut instincts or biases that they hold towards their own team.

Virtually every one of those ladders will have Port, Brisbane, St Kilda and Geelong in the top 4. If you're feeling really daring, you might have pushed up a team from around 6th-8th. into the top 4. If you did either of those things, history suggests that you are totally wrong.

When most people envisage the final four teams in the competition, they usually rely on gut instincts or biases that they hold towards their own team.

This will generally see Port, Brisbane, St Kilda and Geelong heading the ladder.
For those feeling extremely daring, Sydney and West Coast may be pushed from their current 6th and 7th positions respectively, to somewhere in the top four.

Thats pretty ********ing dodgy. Not happy.

 

[noodle]

bigfooty

the jounos ideas lab

 

[Ripper]

...! Posted around 6 hours after me.


Thats pretty ********ing dodgy. Not happy.

You sure you havn't got something to fess up, Jem...er Mead.




Your secret would be safe with us,

 

[Mead]

You sure you havn't got something to fess up, Jem...er Mead.

Your secret would be safe with us,

Hush.. my penis is right where I left it.

Well screw this, nasty email has been duly dispatched to footygoss. If they think they can mess with a murdoch law undergrad who barely scraped his way through Intellectual Property 1 last semester, they've got another thing coming!

 

[dA Crow]

Obviously predicting the ladder is in vogue at this time of the year, most people either
a.) Pull a ladder out of their rear end on the basis of their own prejudices or likes, dislikes and gut feelings
b.) Go through and tip game by game using a ladder predictor program.

Virtually every one of those ladders will have Port, Brisbane, St Kilda and Geelong in the top 4. If you're feeling really daring, you might have pushed up a team from around 6th-8th. into the top 4. If you did either of those things, history suggests that you are totally wrong.

Here are some stats since the advent of the top 8 system in 1994.

-no top 4 has ever contained the same teams two years running.

- Only on one occasion have 3 top 4 teams stayed the same. On average, only 1-2 out of the top 4 stay there.

- Every year, at least one team who didn't make the finals the previous year made the top 4.

- There is a 70% chance that at least one team who finished 12th or worse the previous year will make the top 4.

So given that the bouncing about the ladder position shows no signs of altering, what predictions can we make? Unless there is a dramatic departure from the way things have been for the last decade;

-At least one of Port, Geelong ,Brisbane and St Kilda will finish outside the top 4. Most likely 2 or 3 of those teams will drop out of the top 4.

- At least one of Freo, Kangaroos, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood, Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Richmond will make the top 4.

So depressing as it sounds, when the wild eyed Collingwood or Richmond fan does their 'totaly unbiersed' ladder prediction which has their side finishing top 4 next year, there's actually more chance that they'll be correct than the reasonable sounding person who tips conservatively and says the top 4 will stay with Port/Bris/St Kilda/Geelong. Weird huh?

Excellent post, well thought out, but I just have to ask... are you really Jemma Reale from Footygoss????

 

[understudy]

That old chestnut, just because the 4 has changed in previous years there's no guarantee it will change this year.

Better a well argued case to suggest which teams will force its way into the 4 than 'its changed in previous years so it will this year as well'

Reality is the comp is so even and so little between the clubs that it is pretty much guess work and takes very little for predictions to be way off the mark.

Lots predicted teams to fall out of 4/8 last year and predicted the wrong teams falling out of the 4/8, leading to widely inaccurate ladder predictions. So for all the ridicule you give towards this tipping approach, 2004 form is probably the best guide to predicting the 2005 ladder.

Having said that, the premiership this year will be black and white.

 

[Mead]

That old chestnut, just because the 4 has changed in previous years there's no guarantee it will change this year.

Better a well argued case to suggest which teams will force its way into the 4 than 'its changed in previous years so it will this year as well'

Reality is the comp is so even and so little between the clubs that it is pretty much guess work and takes very little for predictions to be way off the mark.

Lots predicted teams to fall out of 4/8 last year and predicted the wrong teams falling out of the 4/8, leading to widely inaccurate ladder predictions. So for all the ridicule you give towards this tipping approach, 2004 form is probably the best guide to predicting the 2005 ladder.

Having said that, the premiership this year will be black and white.

I'm not sure about that, mainly because I think the things which have happened for 10 years running (top 4 changing every year, teams from the bottom 8 coming into the top 4) are happening for a reason. If it were a two or three year trend then fine, put it down to a coincidence, but the fact that it keeps on occuring seems to suggest that there is something causing it to happen.

As for what that is I don't have the foggiest, but I think it may have something to do with the draft, or the fact that the league tries to have clubs alternate between easy and hard draws on a yearly basis.

As for whether its a better argument than tipping on form, I guess time will tell. The two main predictions those stats suggest are that the top 4 will change, and that a bottom 8 side will go into the top 4. Tipping on form would suggest that the top 4 will stay the same, and that bottom 8 sides certainly won't rise that far. I suppose its worth digging this up in september to see which was true.

 

[Mead]

Excellent post, well thought out, but I just have to ask... are you really Jemma Reale from Footygoss????

Reading that article againI think I'm beginning to wonder if I am?

I'm pretty sure I'm the wrong gender to be Jemma 'I'm a dirty plagiarist' Reale, which means it's up to Footygoss to explain why she just demonstrated an amazing ability to channel me.

 

[Eagles4Ever]

Finally a post worth reading, as opposed to all the "Rate a..." threads that have been taking over the forum of late. Good work Mead and an interesting read.

As for FootyToss.com, I believe thats the the first or last time they have ripped of their material from the footy forums... and to think someone is getting paid for it too.

 

[understudy]

I'm not sure about that, mainly because I think the things which have happened for 10 years running (top 4 changing every year, teams from the bottom 8 coming into the top 4) are happening for a reason. If it were a two or three year trend then fine, put it down to a coincidence, but the fact that it keeps on occuring seems to suggest that there is something causing it to happen.

As for what that is I don't have the foggiest, but I think it may have something to do with the draft, or the fact that the league tries to have clubs alternate between easy and hard draws on a yearly basis.

As for whether its a better argument than tipping on form, I guess time will tell. The two main predictions those stats suggest are that the top 4 will change, and that a bottom 8 side will go into the top 4. Tipping on form would suggest that the top 4 will stay the same, and that bottom 8 sides certainly won't rise that far. I suppose its worth digging this up in september to see which was true.

hey the points are all fair, but its not a great argument to say collingwood will make the 4 this year cause a team falls out every year. More relevance is the fact we were decimated with injury and poor luck in 2004 and that we were proven performers in 2002/2003 and will return to that form in 2005.

on another point we all know the competition is quite even so thats why the finalists change quite regularly, but to say the finalists are guaranteed to change a fair bit every year i wouldnt agree with.

 

[Bestbird]

year. More relevance is the fact we were decimated with injury and poor luck in 2004 and that we were proven performers in 2002/2003 and will return to that form in 2005.

More like you team had a normal injury run last year as opposed to the previous years when you had virtually none which helped you get to the positions in 02 and 03

When you have around 10 players or more missing over a long period, thats decimated

Like the one about poor luck as well

 

[understudy]

More like you team had a normal injury run last year as opposed to the previous years when you had virtually none which helped you get to the positions in 02 and 03

When you have around 10 players or more missing over a long period, thats decimated

Like the one about poor luck as well

We wont be getting injured this year.

All we need is a golden finals run like port and the flag is ours.

 

[Andre]

We wont be getting injured this year.

All we need is a golden finals run like port and the flag is ours.

So you'll be backing the pies to get a home first up final and prelim. due to finishing minor premier AND have your best midfielder and best ruckman out to really show it wasn't a fluke you mean ?

The Pies injury run last year was only slightly worse then average for a club. Port had a worst injury run, if not the worst in the comp. last year, then in the top 3. The Pies STILL have little depth and are more prone to a large fall away in form with players out then most of last years top eight clubs. They are the side I personally have most wildly fluctating on the ladder depending on their injury run.

 

[skywalk750]

Im pretty dissapointed footy goss didnt run my statistical farm sex story

 

[worthogs]

I daresay Melbourne's yo-yo form has contributed a lot to this trend. Nevertheless, it's a good point that Mead makes. Brisbane would be my first candidate to drop out of the top 4, followed by Geelong or Port Adelaide. In all three cases, it's due to personnel losses/changes.

Being a Hawthorn supporter, I'd have to say if any bottom four team from 2004 would scrape into the eight, it would be the Hawks. Seriously though, I think Collingwood has a better chance than us in '05.

I think youhave something here. Melbourne really should have finished in the top 4 remeber they did sit on top for a week then imploded. Brissy and Port will probably slip a bit with Dees and even Freo jumping. Freo may be a bit soft and their home form killed them this year. IF they wine more games at home and only a few of their away games they will go close.

 

[arrowman]

That old chestnut, just because the 4 has changed in previous years there's no guarantee it will change this year.

Correct.

Better a well argued case to suggest which teams will force its way into the 4 than 'its changed in previous years so it will this year as well'

Incorrect. I do not need to produce a well argued case for a particular team to rise or fall; only to ... see below.

Lots predicted teams to fall out of 4/8 last year and predicted the wrong teams falling out of the 4/8, leading to widely inaccurate ladder predictions. So for all the ridicule you give towards this tipping approach, 2004 form is probably the best guide to predicting the 2005 ladder.

Again, predicting the fortunes of particular teams is prone to error. 2004 form is not by itself the best guide to predicting the 2005 ladder, you need to combine it with a decent knowledge of the club's playing list etc, and in particular an understanding of the reasons behind their 2004 performance.

History tells us (and the statistics illustrate) that clubs rise and fall from one year to the next for a range of reasons, injury being one of the most obvious.

If you can properly analyse those reasons and enjoy a dose of luck, you'll get maybe 2-3 of the top 4 and 6 of the top 8 right (imho). The rest is guesswork.

But if your prediction is that the top 4 / top 8 will remain unchanged (or nearly unchanged) you are almost certainly going to be proven wrong. And that's not just based on extrapolating statistics into the future - it's because there are reasons for those stats.

The key thing here is - the stats are not presented as a ladder predictor in themselves, they are presented because they clearly illustrate a real phenomenon.

 

[arrowman]

I'd like to introduce you to a friend of mine.
His name is 'comprehension'.
...
Say hi, comprehension.

Cheers, nonchalance.

 

[Seadog]

Im pretty dissapointed footy goss didnt run my statistical farm sex story

I agree with you skywalk, there's more chance of you having sex with a farm animal than the eagles making the top 4.

 

[flagpie]

Hawthorn will make the top 4 guaranteed. Collingwood will finish near the bottom, if they couldn't win a premiership with the team thay had in 2002/3 they will not win one for a while. The loss of Bo Nixon will hurt them. I think the sad loss of Troy Broadbridge will gut Melbourne. Sydney, West Coast and Fremantle are sleepers as they could finish 1st or 16th. Essendon's luck has run out, their ordinary list will finally catch up with them. Richmond won't improve much, Bulldogs are nearly guaranteed the wooden spoon, but will get competition from Kangaroos. Geelong was very lucky to finish where they did, can their luck continue? Has St Kilda gone ahead of themselves? Only time will tell. Port Adelaide have lost their CEO, a tough player, their Melbourne and Adelaide recruiter, an assistant coach and their fitness adviser. Tough luck! Adelaide might fluke a few wins. Which leaves me with Brisbane, they are looking at a tough start to the year.

That's just an embarassing thing to say!!!

 

[understudy]

Agree arrowman, but there may very well be a year the top 4/8 stays unchanged, this year may very well be it, pies excepted of course.

 

[understudy]

So you'll be backing the pies to get a home first up final and prelim.

The Pies injury run last year was only slightly worse then average for a club. The Pies STILL have little depth and are more prone to a large fall away in form with players out then most of last years top eight clubs. They are the side I personally have most wildly fluctating on the ladder depending on their injury run.

Correct just like in 2003.

When you lose the most dominant and superior player in the competition for a virtual entirety of the year, yes that is called decimination.

Looking good for 2005 though.

 

[whythelongface]

, Bulldogs are nearly guaranteed the wooden spoon,.

Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is?

 

[Powerstufff]

.....Port fans expect back to back.

Annoying to have words put in your mouth especially inaccurate ones. We expect to do well. We hope for back to back.
We are a good team, no stand out super team. And as Mead points out fortunes fluctuate yearly.

 

[Cyclops]

Annoying to have words put in your mouth especially inaccurate ones. We expect to do well. We hope for back to back.
We are a good team, no stand out super team. And as Mead points out fortunes fluctuate yearly.

Hey with the Saints be thankful its just words they put in. Lucky you weren't tied to the bed...

Anyway is this title wrong?

Re: Why every top 4 prediction is wrong.

I'm someone sometime has got their top 4 prediction right.

Anyone?

 

[worthy]

Yep good post, hawks top 4 2005 ZZZZZZ

huh,

whats that,

bloody alarm clock, must have been sleep typing

good dream though.