Will WC get a reasonably fair deal for Judd?

[romanwfw]

I think they will get close to a fair trade, as there will be so many clubs after him


In a real fair world (which wouldn't happen), I would say he's worth picks 1 & 2 & a handy player, he's a once in a generation player, but it will never ever happen

 

[BK Eaglesfan]

There's two scenarios here......

Fair - we get a fair and equitable trade at market value that sees the club he goes to, and us come out of it without being shafted.

What we need - There are some fair and equitable trades that while fair, may not be at all what the Eagles need. For example (and yes it's a silly one to make a point)....if Geelong entered the race and we ended up with Scarlett / Blake and their first pick.

Probably close to the mark, but completely pointless....as we have a full back, and Blake would be a back up ruckman behind Seaby and Cox. Fair maybe, but totally useless to the Eagles.

 

[AngelEyes]

WCE wants high draft picks (I presume top 5 seeing this draft is a weaker draft too).

Only four clubs have top five selections: Carlton (1,3), Richmond (2), Melbourne (4) and Western Bulldogs (5).

The Western Bulldogs have already ruled themselves out but are targeting key position players instead. Carlton, Richmond and Melbourne are all vying for the services of Chris Judd so its doubtful any would co-operate with another club attempting to land him.

I could see the Bulldogs being willing to trade no. 5 for a quality key position player but no. 5 is not enough for Judd alone. You would probably have to hold another top 10 selection as well. Essendon are probably the only other Victorian club which can satisy this requirement of anothe top 10 without trading away their whole side. Althoigh one may strike up a deal with a Fremantle and/or Brisbane.

On top of this one would probably need to give up another young player - not a super star but a reasonable young talent.

Estimated price: 1 top 5 pick, another top 10 pick and a decent youngster.

Judd is apparently saying that he wants a good list which could be the deciding factor. If he is leaving not because of money but because of culture then a few other teams start to enter the bidding process. I think it kind of depends on what he is really after and what he is prepared to sacrafice to win. A Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood or Kangaroos may not be too far out of the picture if he is prepared to play for say 500k rather than 1.1 mil. An interesting proposition could be Geelong attempting to get the Bulldog's top 5 selection and sending that packaged with Joel Corey and say a Brent Primisall to West Coast for Judd.

I'm not sure, if its money its relatively simple - I would say he is gone to Carlton, Richmond, Melbourne or Essendon but if he wants to win, the floodgates could really open up.

 

[G.F.C]

Geelong will not be entering the Chris Judd sweepstakes, that is assured, i can tell you.

 

[H2F]

They will get

Thorp
Williams
Pick 12
Morton or Moss or Bateman

Or whatever the Pies best offer is.

 

[DeeHughMan]

I think West Coast could get a fair deal from Melbourne.

Either Melbourne trade with the dogs to get pick 5.

then trade pick 4 +5 for Judd. This would be a pretty good deal. Carlton may be the only club that could top it.

Or Melbourne trade Pick 4 + Pick 21 or whatever there 2nd round pick is + Robbo. Robbo would be handy for West coast

 

[Father Jack]

They will get

Thorp
Williams
Pick 12
Morton or Moss or Bateman

Or whatever the Pies best offer is.

West Coast have said that they are after draft picks. Good ones, high ones, and lots of 'em.

 

[DeeHughMan]

They will get

Thorp
Williams
Pick 12
Morton or Moss or Bateman

Or whatever the Pies best offer is.

In my opinion such a deal would create List problems. They really want the high picks over quantity. they have not got a lot of players retiring. so swapping 1 player for 4 could create problems with fitting them all on the list.

If I was West coast and hawthorn traded with me I would want. a top 5 pick plus roughead.

this is going to be a very hard trade to work out

 

[thekid178]

I would think that right at this second, the most obvious trade would be to Carlton.

Scenario 1:
Eagles - Fevola, pick 20
Blues - Judd

Scenario 2:
Eagles - Kennedy, pick 3
Carlton - Judd, 3rd or 4th round pick

Possible:
Eagles - Johns, pick 6, M.Johnson
Bombers - Judd, (possibly late draft pick)

Eagles - Didak, 1st round pick
Pies - Judd, possibly late draft pick

 

[AngelEyes]

I just don't see how he will get to Collingwood. People say it but I don't see how they can structure a deal to get him there.

Sure Didak may get you a first round draft pick from Adelaide or Port Adelaide but neither have top draft picks in the first round. Collingwood itself doesn't have alot of star players either as evidenced by the All-Australian fiasco. If Tarkyn Lockyer is the best you can throw up with a poorer first round pick or two, I don't see how they will get him. That would be mean they would have to trade a Pendelbury and possibly a Thomas.

Is Judd worth say Thomas, Pendelbury, Didak (for Adel's first) and your own first rounder? Pies fans may say no to Pendelbury and Thomas but you are looking at clubs chucking in top five draft picks. Using my formula before of a top 5 pick, another top 10 pick and a young player, I don't see how Collingwood can match anyone's offer by not giving up these type of players.

Pendelbury say is worth the top five selection, the other top 10 isn't going to exist as Collingwood and Adelaide don't have that kind of Cattle. So you are going to have chuck in possibly another two later first round picks to make up for the top 10, then Thomas is your young player.

Is he worth that? I would say no if I were Collingwood. He is not worth Thomas, Pendelbury, Didak and your first rounder. He is good but there is no point destroying your future with him.

 

[nobbyiscool]

I would think that right at this second, the most obvious trade would be to Carlton.

Scenario 1:
Eagles - Fevola, pick 20
Blues - Judd

Scenario 2:
Eagles - Kennedy, pick 3
Carlton - Judd, 3rd or 4th round pick

Possible:
Eagles - Johns, pick 6, M.Johnson
Bombers - Judd, (possibly late draft pick)

Eagles - Didak, 1st round pick
Pies - Judd, possibly late draft pick

i'm sure your not being serious there... none of those would be fair an equitable... none of those would be even close. johns and johnson? yeah, get ur hands off it.

it'll need to be a top 5 pick and a good player, or a top 5 pick, a second round pick and a player- its one of the reasons i see the stars alligning for carlton... pick 3, 20 and a good player (not bloody kennedy)

 

[thekid178]

I just don't see how he will get to Collingwood. People say it but I don't see how they can structure a deal to get him there.

Sure Didak may get you a first round draft pick from Adelaide or Port Adelaide but neither have top draft picks in the first round. Collingwood itself doesn't have alot of star players either as evidenced by the All-Australian fiasco. If Tarkyn Lockyer is the best you can throw up with a poorer first round pick or two, I don't see how they will get him. That would be mean they would have to trade a Pendelbury and possibly a Thomas.

Is Judd worth say Thomas, Pendelbury, Didak (for Adel's first) and your own first rounder? Pies fans may say no to Pendelbury and Thomas but you are looking at clubs chucking in top five draft picks. Using my formula before of a top 5 pick, another top 10 pick and a young player, I don't see how Collingwood can match anyone's offer by not giving up these type of players.

Pendelbury say is worth the top five selection, the other top 10 isn't going to exist as Collingwood and Adelaide don't have that kind of Cattle. So you are going to have chuck in possibly another two later first round picks to make up for the top 10, then Thomas is your young player.

Is he worth that? I would say no if I were Collingwood. He is not worth Thomas, Pendelbury, Didak and your first rounder. He is good but there is no point destroying your future with him.

ok so 3 way deal?

Coll - Didak to crows, 1st pick to eagles.
Adel - 1st pick to eagles
Eagles - Judd to Coll

So clubs end up with:

Eagles - 2 1st round picks
Crows - Didak
Coll - Judd

thoughts?

 

[H2F]

ok so 3 way deal?

Coll - Didak to crows, 1st pick to eagles.
Adel - 1st pick to eagles
Eagles - Judd to Coll

So clubs end up with:

Eagles - 2 1st round picks
Crows - Didak
Coll - Judd

thoughts?

WC don't rate this draft. The fact they stated they wanted picks is a smokescreen. To get Judd I believe you will have to give up young guns and especially forwards.

Your deal would need to involve Cloke, Reid, Pendlebury or Rusling

 

[AngelEyes]

ok so 3 way deal?

Coll - Didak to crows, 1st pick to eagles.
Adel - 1st pick to eagles
Eagles - Judd to Coll

So clubs end up with:

Eagles - 2 1st round picks
Crows - Didak
Coll - Judd

thoughts?

No I was suggesting that Thomas and Pendelbury would also be sent from Collingwood to West Coast.

Most reasonable players these days get two average first rounders let alone Coll and Adel's. Would need to chuck in alot more than two poorer first rounders for Judd.

 

[Biggie]

I awoke this morning with the "gut" feeling that we wont get what we want in this deal.

I thimk reality has set in and Im actually quite bitter this morning.

Mind you I did have a few wines after hearing the news at around 2.00pm yesterday.

 

[cakewalk06]

So you seriously think the Pies would give up Didak, Thomas, Pendlebury and their No.1 pick to pick up Judd??

Three of our five best players for one champion who may or may not get back to his best... that is seriously deluded...

I repeat, no club will be jeopardising their future for Judd.

 

[Qsaint]

Depends

Whats the Salary Cap ATM 6.5 Million? Given Judd will want 800K and clubs will be at 95% of Cap limit It would only be clubs who have dropped a few good players are in the race and this is the Problem. Most clubs will know who is in the race and this will limit the bidding.

Essendon - Hird

St Kilda - Gherig (Maguire's not under contract and Hamill is on the last year Backended)

Carlton

Miss Anyone?

Carlton are in the Box seat if Richmond can't or don't want Judd they can take him in the Pre Season draft. St Kilda is unlikely so all I suspect unless Essendon do something silly is a round 1 pick probably 3 from Carlton, or Carlton take him in Pre Season

 

[cakewalk06]

PS. Thomas was already a No.2 pick and Pendles No.5 and Didak No.3 ... do you think any of those players are worth less now than when they were drafted?

I'm afraid Carlton is your best hope of getting anywhere near market value for Judd...

 

[Qsaint]

So you seriously think the Pies would give up Didak, Thomas, Pendlebury and their No.1 pick to pick up Judd??

Three of our five best players for one champion who may or may not get back to his best... that is seriously deluded...

I repeat, no club will be jeopardising their future for Judd.

That is True, and Carlton will do no good with Judd unless they get another 5 to 6 good youngsters. If Carlton have to give up 2 First round draft Picks or more they would have to question the deal

 

[Jezzza]

Mind you I did have a few wines after hearing the news at around 2.00pm yesterday.

I think a lot of people were having a few whines yesterday at about 2pm

Realistically unless a few clubs are desperate to get Judd we won't be getting anything near what we want. Which could be something like at a minimum 2 top 10 picks 1 of which is in the top 5 and a good player or a top 5 and a gun... not the rifle type I mean a gun player

 

[AngelEyes]

So you seriously think the Pies would give up Didak, Thomas, Pendlebury and their No.1 pick to pick up Judd??

Three of our five best players for one champion who may or may not get back to his best... that is seriously deluded...

I repeat, no club will be jeopardising their future for Judd.

No I don't think that Collingwood would consider giving that - that is my point.

What do you honestly think Chris Judd is worth? My statement was that I believe Judd will go for a top 5, a top 10 and a young player.

Carlton are obviously very keen and quite concievably give up alot for him. I would without a doubt gaurentee that Carlton will throw in at least one top 3 selection. Collingwood are in trouble from that start.

With all due respect to Didak, he is probably worth a first rounder. He has currency but not a heap and his off field problems probably mean you will get a first rounder and possibly a swap of later draft picks but I wouldn't expect much more. So realistically if you value one of Pendelbury or Thomas as a top five you have so far given a top 5 five and a non-top 10 first rounder. You will probably need to get a top 10 or send a combination of stuff of equally value to WCE.

I could see someone possibly taking Collingwood and Adelaide's first rounders for another top ten but bare in mind, its not the club holding the top 10 that is desperate for a deal to go down. I realistically believe that Adelaide and Collingwood's first picks will probably be worth the equivalent of an okay top 10 between them (possibly Fremantle's pick).

So far you have given up say Pendelbury and two first round picks for Judd, yet you haven't even got the young player part. You would have to give up something else as well. WCE would probably demand Thomas and Collingwood may be in a bit of trouble trying who to send. Collingwood also don't have the luxury of the preseason draft so I think the ball is in WCE's court.

I think its realistic to estimate that WCE would demand or require Pendelbury, Thomas and two later first rounders for Judd. I don't think it will happen because Collingwood as you said won't destroy their team. However, other teams such as Carlton which have nothing to loose will do it.

 

[Motown]

Personally, I think WCE fans won't be happy whatever happens as they won't get anything near what they think they should. If the WCE management think along the same lines, then Richmond fans may get the best early Xmas present ever.

 

[Aussie Assault]

I think they will get a reasonable deal. They are going to have plenty of offers from plenty of clubs all vying for him, so they will want to make impressive offers.

I think Melbourne is a really strong chance of snaring him. Their first pick with Sylvia or someone like that would be an attractive offer.

 

[thekid178]

WC don't rate this draft. The fact they stated they wanted picks is a smokescreen. To get Judd I believe you will have to give up young guns and especially forwards.

Your deal would need to involve Cloke, Reid, Pendlebury or Rusling

No I was suggesting that Thomas and Pendelbury would also be sent from Collingwood to West Coast.

Most reasonable players these days get two average first rounders let alone Coll and Adel's. Would need to chuck in alot more than two poorer first rounders for Judd.

If WCE decided to move Judd on, they could demand a thomas or pendles, but the fact of the matter is they have been forced to the table, and have to get a something for him. While I agree they are not going to be dictated to, the fact of the matter is that a) if judd says he wants to go to a certain club, then WCE will try to get something done, because the mere fact that he may walk away for nothing will force their hand.

So while what u say might be true on the face, come friday arvo trade week and no deal and no contract from judd, they may have to look at these sorts of deals...

 

[BEEG]

If WCE decided to move Judd on, they could demand a thomas or pendles, but the fact of the matter is they have been forced to the table, and have to get a something for him. While I agree they are not going to be dictated to, the fact of the matter is that a) if judd says he wants to go to a certain club, then WCE will try to get something done, because the mere fact that he may walk away for nothing will force their hand.

So while what u say might be true on the face, come friday arvo trade week and no deal and no contract from judd, they may have to look at these sorts of deals...

We will get Adelaides Pick 10 and a player for Didak
we will give WC our 2 1st round picks and a player like Rusling or Davis which wants to return to WA that will be the best we can do and if Judd wants to come to Collingwood WC will have to take it or lose him in the PSD you will never get what Judds worth but that isnt a bad deal

Pick 10 and Pick 13
Davis/Rusling