Winning from 7th, fool's hope or new hope?

[ep2018]

We'll never see 7th do it again... 5th and 6th very unlikely also. Maybe in a couple of decades 5th will do it.
Watching Richmond win their last 9 to scrape into 8th... Dogs flag from 7th... we have been lucky to witness them.

 

[kickazz]

The only side we didn't beat this year was Geelong.

Twice!

Most years i find there is only one team a premier fails to beat.

 

[kickazz]

I think the real reason that teams outside the top 4 don't generally win it isn't so much the structure of the finals as that generally one of the best 2 or 3 sides in a given season will win the flag, and generally the best 2 or 3 sides finish in the top 4 at the end of the home and away season.

To put it another way, the correlation between finishing top 4 and winning the flag is more effect and effect rather than cause and effect. This year was different in that there were probably 6 or 7 teams that were of top 4 quality, you look at that top 7 and any one was very capable of beating any other one on a given day, and it came down to who was 'on', on gameday. Consider the scenario where the Dogs didn't get those two key injuries during their match against St. Kilda and then went on to win that match. They then have something to play for against Freo in round 23 so they also win that match. Then they probably do finish in the top 4. And probably win 3 finals in very convincing fashion and then you have a very different narrative.

We've seen two years in a row now a team have to play 4 finals and travel during the final series then win the flag. It's always been doable, it's just that generally if you're good enough to win the flag you're also good enough to make the top 4. So the real anomaly isn't that 5-8 team won the flag, it's that a flag winning side didn't make the top 4. It's just that the chronology means we see it with a certain perspective. On reflection you can look it in a different way.

Yeah, usually the teams in the top 4 win it because they are good, not because the system favours them.

From about round 19? all the talk was about a close top 7. No clear top 2 or 3 teams.

 

[kickazz]

The Sydney v GWS dynamic cannot be underplayed.

Take out GWS, and up until the GF you could argue that Sydney were in fact a step above the rest of the comp; they won by big margins and basically their four losses were:

Ten points, away to a v good Adelaide.
Loss to Hawks and Dogs thanks to a goal in the final minute or so.
Loss to tigers with goal after the siren.


Then Sydney get solidly beaten in the QF and we are back talking about how even the finals race was.

When the dust settles, i think the two interstate finals victories will be what is seen as the remarkable achievement, no matter how good a 7th we think they were.

 

[Benny78]

Had West Coast on the ropes and blew it with shit kicking in the 1st half.

Lol pls man. I thought you would be joking. You are blinded by bias.

 

[Badesumofu]

Twice!

Most years i find there is only one team a premier fails to beat.

Yes, in fact the last Premier to beat every other side in a season was Hawthorn in 2008. Since then:

Premier ------- teams not beaten
Geelong 09 ---- Carlton
Collingwood 10 - Hawthorn, Brisbane
Geelong 11 ----- Essendon
Sydney 12 ----- Collingwood
Hawthorn 13 --- Richmond
Hawthorn 14 --- Port, North
Hawthorn 15 --- Port, GWS, Richmond
Bulldogs 16 ---- Geelong

 

[Scotland]

I wish people would STFU about the bye. We had momentum and it hurt us, the Dogs had injured players coming back so it helped them. Every team was affected one way or another. That doesn't have anything to do with finishing 7th, though. Sydney played just as many finals as the Dogs and they finished 1st.

Bye or no bye the Bulldogs were very strong for a 7th placed side. Injuries hurt them throughout the season which pushed them outside the top 4. Sydney, GWS, Adelaide, Geelong and the Bulldogs were the best 5 teams for the season IMO. Hawthorn had so many ounces of luck to scrape in they started counting in pounds (16 oz = 1lb for those playing at home) and a late season surge lifted us into 6th when we were pretty ordinary for most of the year. In recent years we've seen Port and North make prelims from outside the top 4 so it has been coming that a team would make the GF.

 

[JPetro83]

a once off.. well might be done again but not for a very long time. flash in the pan I think.

 

[calyam]

I wouldn't expect to see it again. It's a combination of a relatively tight season - certainly much tighter across the top seven than is normal - and the Dogs finishing lower than their talent level suggests due to injuries. Factors such as the 'extra bye' are IMO irrelevant.

The closest equivalent I could come up with was Geelong in 1993. They finished seventh - in a six team final series - but in the final four rounds absolutely wrecked four of those teams including the eventual premier Essendon. Had a final eight system existed back then I certainly wouldn't have been surprised had they run the table.

 

[underthestars]

Of course it could happen again. Just needs a seventh place team to have a rest week one, play outside their skins, have the umpires kissing their digits for four straight games, and play in a year where there are no standout teams.

 

[Blue1980]

Still need to be a good side. Wasn't much in it from 1st to 7th this year, only 2 wins. Doggies won 15 which can get you top 4 some years, even got top spot in 1997.

It's unlikely to be a 12 win side that has been flakey all year suddenly winning every final

 

[Boomerfan99]

Had West Coast on the ropes and blew it with shit kicking in the 1st half.

Some seriously terrible umpiring decisions didn't help.

Doubt we would have beaten the Hawks though.

 

[Mervyn Beasley]

Any of the top 7 could have won the flag going into the finals series, all of them were worthy of a top 4 finish, it was a remarkably even season.

I agree.
As such I think the next few years have the potential to throw up more anomalies.
The comp is finally evening up.

There is n argument for this years top 7 to be in the 8 next year.
Add Melb, St K, Port, etc to the mix and who knows what might happen?

 

[Whiskers]

You don't usually win from 7th because you just aren't good enough.
This year it was very even and the Dogs had injuries, if they didn't they would finish higher. All their (sorry most) injured players came back when it mattered. That side was not the same one who finished 7th.

 

[ScragCity]

For the Bulldogs to win the flag from 7th they had to win 4 games in a row against arguably better sides. Two of them interstate. I am absolutely certain that the Dogs finals campaign this year will go down as an anomaly. Yeah, the bye probably gives you an extra 1% chance of being able to achieve this. Just remember, Adelaide were arguably good enough to be a top 4 side but couldn't get past the semis.

 

[Schauermann]

Recent seasosn have been pretty even with only two games between 1st and 7th. Quite a few straight exits as well recently. But the gap between top and lower team looks pretty huge as well. 3 teams would have gotten a priority pick under older rules.

Still this could easily get back to 1 or 2 top, 1 or 2 bad and lots of middle of the road teams. Who knows...

 

[Mofra]

The Sydney v GWS dynamic cannot be underplayed.

Take out GWS, and up until the GF you could argue that Sydney were in fact a step above the rest of the comp; they won by big margins and basically their four losses were:

Ten points, away to a v good Adelaide.
Loss to Hawks and Dogs thanks to a goal in the final minute or so.
Loss to tigers with goal after the siren.


Then Sydney get solidly beaten in the QF and we are back talking about how even the finals race was.

When the dust settles, i think the two interstate finals victories will be what is seen as the remarkable achievement, no matter how good a 7th we think they were.

They also suffered injuries late in the season and in the QF - Tippet (who was well beaten on GF day) was nursing a broken jaw. His formline prior to round 22 was excellent.
Sydney carried injuries into the GF and it didn't payoff.
The Bulldogs threw a heap of players back in for two games - Sydney earlier in the year (JJ kicks the winning goal after 10 weeks on the sidelines) and in the first EF (5 changes against WCE) and luckily both paid off.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It wasn't a normal 7th placed finish though - our W/L ratios would have put us in the top 4 in almost every other year, the top 7 were remarkably even.

We were treading water until we got our 2nd & 3rd best mids back (Libba & Macrae) - add the 2nd & 3rd best mid back to any team and you get substantial improvement.

Realistically any of the top 7 could have won it, although NicNat's knee was a huge issue and Sloane's suspension made a big impact due to the round 23 result too.

The finals were like watching the end of a race where 7 runners are all neck-a-neck, trying to elbow passed each other, only for one to push ahead with a metre to spare to take the win.

It was a desperately even home and away season, considering so many teams were relying on percentage to cement their finals placing with only a few rounds to go.

 

[JackFlash]

The post season "BYE" has opened up the Finals series to all possibilities and we just saw that proven this year. No post season "BYE" and the scraggers would've been stuffed. A return trip to Perth immediately after playing the final round, players that might not have been ready? The Eagles on a roll after beating three top teams in a row. The "BYE" was a godsend for them and allowed them to regain players, build momentum, gain extraordinary confidence, crowd adulation from winning and running on adrenaline. Finishing 5th -8th may now be the best place to be. You get punished for finishing 1st- 4th and if you win, you end up with a disrupted preparation when the game itself lifts another notch. Nope, keep on playing is the key to finals success from now on...

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

As ridiculous as this sounds considering they finished 7th, you could make a strong argument that the Dogs were the best team over the entire year. The final ladder ended up (after finals):

1. Bulldogs: 19 wins, 7 losses, 118.3%
2. Sydney: 19 wins, 7 losses, 142.8%
3. Geelong: 18 wins, 6 losses, 137.3%
4. GWS: 17 wins, 7 losses, 141.3%
5. Hawthorn: 17 wins, 7 losses, 115.5%
6. Adelaide: 17 wins, 7 losses, 135.8%
7. West Coast: 16 wins, 7 losses, 125.7%
8. North Melb: 12 wins, 11 losses, 101.8%

So the Doggies had the same record as the Swans (just with a lower percentage). Geelong had the slightly better W/L ratio (75% compared to 73%) but the Doggies won more games. Every other club had an inferior record. The Dogs went 2-0 against the Swans this year (in both Sydney and Melbourne) and 0-2 against Geelong.

The year was so even that they still finished with the equal best record despite finishing 7th on the ladder after the H&A. It's a bit like when people say Brisbane weren't the best team of 2001 or 2002. They finished with a 20-5 record in both years while Essendon (2001) and Port Adelaide (2002) only managed a 19-6 record.

 

[TedDougChris]

Dogs second game v Geelong was heavily impacted by injuries. Lost by around 3 goals despite losing Macrae and Libba in game... Would have liked to have won that, big monkey to get off our backs at some point, have a shocking record v Geelong.

 

[emuboy]

The 2015 and 2016 seasons were unusual in the way they panned out during the finals. In 2015, Fremantle were never really challenged in winning the minor premiership, but were so hopelessly out of form come finals time that it was little wonder they failed to make it, this foreshadowing a massive slide down the ladder for the Dockers.

In 2016, it was such an unusually even finals series, with the first seven teams so close and it possible to make a convincing case for all of them to win the premiership. Only the out of form Kangaroos in 8th position were making up the numbers.

However, 2017 could be an uneven season like 2011, where Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn completely dominated the season, few sides getting anywhere near the Magpies, Cats and Hawks who predictably filled the Top 3 positions and challenged for the premiership. You just never know.

 

[Rotayjay]

Very reasonable and insightful posts. I'll agree - in an even year, it could happen again but in an ordinary year, no.

Edit: Yet this proves that if you're good enough, you can win four finals in a row (two if them interstate) to win the premiership under the new final eight system which is supposed to confer big advantages on the top 4. It will no longer be considered almost impossible.

 

[BK Eaglesfan]

Think it was bound to happen statistically and in such an even season everything aligned. There is zero doubt the bye gave the Bulldogs the extra week to get players on the park that otherwise wouldn't have for the first final, but disappointed that so many are talking up the bye as 'the reason' the Bulldogs were able to achieve such a stunning premiership win.

We've seen teams come through four finals before, generally because they start the finals series in the top four and lose the first one. The Bulldogs did it after a win loss record that would more often than not have them top four as opposed to eighth. Sydney did it in 05', travelling to Perth after entering the finals in 3rd. Went home and snuck past Geelong only to have to travel again, where they beat St Kilda, who had earned themselves a week off after upsetting Adelaide in Adelaide. A week later, via Perth and Melbourne (twice), premiers.

Can it be done again? Statistically it is likely at some point, and those odds will be highest when there is such a close season amongst the top seven contenders and / or a team quality of the Bulldogs finishes 7th.

 

[_Mike_]

playing 4 finals with 2 of those being interstate is not an easy task. Sydney lost the QF, won their SF and Prelim but by the time they got to the GF they were cooked and didnt have the fitness to run out the game. (If you watch the last quarter, too many swans players just couldn't keep up the pace when the Dogs turned it on)

Whilst we won 4 finals, yes its an anomaly. I wouldn't expect any team to repeat that from 5th-8th for some time.