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Sabalenka (1) vs. Keys 
(19): Final Preview
Aryna Sabalenka
(19): Final PreviewAryna Sabalenka
Rank: 1
DOB: 5/5/98
Career Achievements: Australian Open (2023, 2024), US Open (2024), World No. 1 in singles, former World No. 1 in doubles, 18 career titles.
Career: Loud, powerful, and dominant. Sabalenka hasn’t lost at Melbourne Park since 2022, dropping just two sets in three years. Only Martina Hingis has won three Australian Opens in a row during the Open Era, and Sabalenka now stands on the brink of joining that elite club. Once plagued by “yips” in both slam semifinals and her second serve, those issues now seem firmly in the rearview mirror. She’s at her peak, showcasing a mix of huge power and much more poise than previous years
Last Year: Sabalenka started 2024 as the clear world No. 2 and finished as the undisputed No. 1. Despite missing Wimbledon, she dominated on hardcourts, going 38-7, winning both hardcourt slams (Australian and US Opens) and two Masters 1000 titles. She suffered personal tragedy with the sudden death of her ex in Marsh last year.
This Tournament: Sabalenka opened her season by winning Brisbane and has carried that momentum to Melbourne. She’s faced tough opposition—former Slam champion Sloane Stephens in the first round, the Auckland winner in the third, and prodigy Mirra Andreeva in the fourth—but won all in straight sets. She dropped a set against Pavlyuchenkova in the quarters and started slowly against Badosa in the semis, but neither match seemed to genuinely trouble her.
Road to the Final:
SF: def. Badosa (6-4, 6-2)
QF: def. Pavlyuchenkova (6-2, 2-6, 6-3)
R16: def. Andreeva (6-1, 6-2)
R3: def. Tauson (7-6, 6-4)
R2: def. Bouzas Maneiro (6-3, 7-5)
R1: def. Stephens (6-3, 6-2)
Madison Keys
Rank: 14 (Highest: 7)
DOB: 17/2/95
Career Achievements: US Open runner-up (2017), Cincinnati Open champion (2019), 5 Grand Slam semifinals, 8 career titles.
Career: Keys has been around for a long time—her first semifinal was at the Australian Open ten years ago, where she lost to Serena Williams. She looked primed to win her maiden Slam at the 2017 US Open but played one of her worst matches, losing to Stephens in the final. Injuries and inconsistent form have kept her from reaching the top echelon consistently, though her big-hitting game is always dangerous when it clicks. This year, a switch in strings has been a talking point. Have a drink every time that is mentioned
Last Year: Injuries derailed Keys in 2024. She missed the Australian Open and played only four tournaments after Wimbledon. Despite these challenges, she reached the semis in Madrid, salvaging her ranking and staying within the top 30.
This Tournament: Though seeded 19th, Keys has played more like a top-10 player. She came into Melbourne fresh off a title in Adelaide, and while she’s had to battle hard—dropping sets in 4 of her 6 matches—she’s taken out an impressive list of opponents, including 4 players who have made the Australian Open semifinals or better in the past.
Road to the Final:
SF: def. Swiatek (5-7, 6-1, 7-6)
QF: def. Svitolina (3-6, 6-3, 6-4)
R16: def. Rybakina (6-3, 1-6, 6-3)
R3: def. Collins (6-4, 6-4)
R2: def. Ruse (7-6, 2-6, 7-5)
R1: def. Li (6-4, 7-5)
Head-to-Head
Sabalenka leads 4-1.
Their most recent meeting was the 2024 Beijing R16, where Sabalenka won (6-4, 6-3).
Keys’ lone victory came in Berlin 2021 on grass (6-4, 1-6, 7-5).
Prediction:
Two big hitters, but one is far more consistent. Keys is a great player on her day and has put together an excellent run here, but Sabalenka’s consistency, mental fortitude, and form over the last three years set her apart. This feels similar to last year’s final—expect Sabalenka to start slowly, possibly dropping a rare set, before asserting her dominance.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3 (5-7, 6-4, 6-2).
