Most Embarassing Drought Going into 2025 - Premiership (St Kilda, 1966), Finals Win (Essendon, 2004) or Finals Appearance (Gold Coast, Never)?

[BillyBrainless]

Tough one.

 

[threesixpio]

Gold Coast by far of this lot. The legs up they have got!!

BTW where TF is GWS because their legups were even crazier so they’re my number one… and reaching a GF etc is not enough

Giants = embarrassment of riches

 

[Mr Meow]

A Gold Coast vs St Kilda (premiers) grand final, with Essendon losing a prelim, is coming up. Let's break all those droughts.

 

[CURVE]

A Gold Coast vs St Kilda (premiers) grand final, with Essendon losing a prelim, is coming up. Let's break all those droughts.

No. Let Essendon's drought continue for another 20 years. At least.

 

[Crankyhawk]

Essendon drought is most embarrassing I think. Saints at least have played in grand finals and GC could blame afl for botching the set up - ie administrator embarrassing not players or supporters. Also to measure level of embarrassment/ shame it is usually felt by the supporter group so Essendon also has the largest there as they have many more supporters than Gold Coast.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

I don't know what google knows....

Gold Coast SUNS
Professional sports team

Coach: Josh Drummond (Head coach)
Arena/Stadium: People First Stadium
Location: Gold Coast
Founded: 2009

 

[Linda Lovelace]

Essendon the most embarrassing considering it's a big club.

No team with the resources it has should be this categorically sh*t for this long given big clubs have access to the same equalisation measures while also retaining significant advantages over poor clubs.

But they'll also likely fix it this year, barring an injury crisis. The pundits and their own fans are underestimating the quality of that list.

 

[LordLucifer]

St. Kilda are clear winners in this area.

One premiership for their entire history which they secured by the smallest possible margin courtesy of a Barry Breen point thanks to a shite handball from Collingwood player Ted Potter.

The photos of their premiership captain Doc Baldock holding the cup has him wearing a Pies jumper.

The next closest they got to saluting was a draw in the 2010 GF but they got totally pantsed in the replay the week after.

When you add in some off-field scandals (dwarves, schoolgirls etc), they clearly are an embarrassment all round.

 

[PhatBoy]

St. Kilda are clear winners in this area.

One premiership for their entire history which they secured by the smallest possible margin courtesy of a Barry Breen point thanks to a shite handball from Collingwood player Ted Potter.

The photos of their premiership captain Doc Baldock holding the cup has him wearing a Pies jumper.

The next closest they got to saluting was a draw in the 2010 GF but they got totally pantsed in the replay the week after.

When you add in some off-field scandals (dwarves, schoolgirls etc), they clearly are an embarrassment all round.

The thing is, every league around the world has these stories in some capacity. We do like to make out that the Saints are some sort of outlier - and they are in an AFL sense - but relative to world sport they aren’t.

In the NFL there’s 12 teams that haven’t won a Super Bowl and it’s been going for what, nearly 60 years, and of those 12 teams I think there are only 2 that won titles before the Super Bowl existed. Yes NFL and its teams haven’t been around as long as the AFL/VFL but you get the idea.

There’s 10 teams that haven’t won an NBA title.

Still 5 MLB teams that haven’t won a World Series and 3 of them have been around for 50-ish or more years.

The Indians/Guardians have been around for 130 years and won twice, nothing for a 80 years nearly aside from one and a half decent movies

Obviously there’s a tonne of storied English soccer sides who’ve never won a top tier title though most have won some sort of trophy. I would assume the continental leagues are fairly similar.

The NRL had the Sharks as its running joke for half a century before they finally won and it wouldn’t surprise me if it was that long again.

 

[CURVE]

The thing is, every league around the world has these stories in some capacity. We do like to make out that the Saints are some sort of outlier - and they are in an AFL sense - but relative to world sport they aren’t.

In the NFL there’s 12 teams that haven’t won a Super Bowl and it’s been going for what, nearly 60 years, and of those 12 teams I think there are only 2 that won titles before the Super Bowl existed. Yes NFL and its teams haven’t been around as long as the AFL/VFL but you get the idea.

There’s 10 teams that haven’t won an NBA title.

Still 5 MLB teams that haven’t won a World Series and 3 of them have been around for 50-ish or more years.

The Indians/Guardians have been around for 130 years and won twice, nothing for a 80 years nearly aside from one and a half decent movies

Obviously there’s a tonne of storied English soccer sides who’ve never won a top tier title though most have won some sort of trophy. I would assume the continental leagues are fairly similar.

The NRL had the Sharks as its running joke for half a century before they finally won and it wouldn’t surprise me if it was that long again.

Chicago Cubs went 108 years between World Series Titles, and the Boston Red Sox went 86 years.
West Ham are celebrating 130 years in 2025 and don't have league title, while it's been 64 years since Tottenham last won the league.
LA Clippers have been around for 55 years and have zero NBA championship trophy to their name, meanwhile their crosstown rivals have 17.

And yet, I think one of the AFL's "Big Four" clubs not winning a Final in more than 7500 days has to be the most embarrassing. The fact that in that time they have only played seven finals should also be a little embarrassing.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Essendon drought is most embarrassing I think. Saints at least have played in grand finals and GC could blame afl for botching the set up - ie administrator embarrassing not players or supporters. Also to measure level of embarrassment/ shame it is usually felt by the supporter group so Essendon also has the largest there as they have many more supporters than Gold Coast.

Agree

Given 40% of teams each year make the finals and of those half win a final each year, the mathematical odds of not doing that in 20 years is staggering

 

[Osho]

Recent finals choking award: GWS.
-2023 was pretty good, a point loss to a Pies on the ropes, with some imbecilic errors in crunch moments.
-2024 was a huge improvement, surrendering huge margins on the back of "fear of ball", and "fumble" strategies.

Last 3 finals, losses, by an accumulative 12 points. C'mon, where's the trophy?

 

[Duckimus Prime]

Recent finals choking award: GWS.
-2023 was pretty good, a point loss to a Pies on the ropes, with some imbecilic errors in crunch moments.
-2024 was a huge improvement, surrendering huge margins on the back of "fear of ball", and "fumble" strategies.

Last 3 finals, losses, by an accumulative 12 points. C'mon, where's the trophy?

Its not even close for embarassing Finals performances.

Over those two years, Port Adelaide has the joy of a 140+ turn around to the previous result against Sydney, an 80+ turn around to the previous result against Geelong, a 70+ point turn around to the previous result against GWS and a 90+ turn around against Brisbane.

The semi final win against Hawthorn is the only time that Port hasn't embarassesd itself in Finals against a side that it beat during the Home and Away season. Note also the prelim final loss against the Bulldogs in 2021 was also a 70+ point turn around.

But given that, I still think Essendon is the "winner".

 

[Juddernaut08]

Agree

Given 40% of teams each year make the finals and of those half win a final each year, the mathematical odds of not doing that in 20 years is staggering

usually 6 teams win each year. So 1 in 3.

ChatGPT says the chances of that not occurring for 20 consecutive years is 1 in 3010.

 

[Tadpole]

usually 6 teams win each year. So 1 in 3.

ChatGPT says the chances of that not occurring for 20 consecutive years is 1 in 3010.

Which coincidentally may be the next year in which Essendon win a final.

 

[Freomaniac]

St. Kilda are clear winners in this area.

One premiership for their entire history which they secured by the smallest possible margin courtesy of a Barry Breen point thanks to a shite handball from Collingwood player Ted Potter.

The photos of their premiership captain Doc Baldock holding the cup has him wearing a Pies jumper.

The next closest they got to saluting was a draw in the 2010 GF but they got totally pantsed in the replay the week after.

When you add in some off-field scandals (dwarves, schoolgirls etc), they clearly are an embarrassment all round.

Sad to a degree but true.

Saints could easily have 3 or 4 or 5 flags since 1965 onwards. I specifically said 1965 because saints lost a grand final in 1965, to Essendon

 

[Fadge]

usually 6 teams win each year. So 1 in 3.

ChatGPT says the chances of that not occurring for 20 consecutive years is 1 in 3010.

For a long time we generally had the top 4 teams win through to the Preliminary Final, meaning 6 different teams won finals.

We also only had 16 teams for the first 9 years of their drought, meaning it would have been very close to 10/16 (not winning a final) in those seasons.

In recent years, we have had a number of Elimination Finalists win through to the Preliminary Final, and even the Grand Final, so we're now seeing on average 5 different teams winning at least one final out of the 18 teams.

Balancing it out over the two decades, your original ratio of 6 in 18 teams winning a final is reasonable (originally 6 in 16 and more recently 5 in 18).

With Essendon being one of the teams NOT to win a final, they're in the 12/18 group.

1/((12/18)^20) = 3325

So a 1 in 3325 chance of a SPECIFIC team to not win a final in a SPECIFIC 20 year period, assuming all teams start at the same base.

 

[Cleavy]

 

[Occidental]

St. Kilda are clear winners in this area.

One premiership for their entire history which they secured by the smallest possible margin courtesy of a Barry Breen point thanks to a shite handball from Collingwood player Ted Potter.

The photos of their premiership captain Doc Baldock holding the cup has him wearing a Pies jumper.

The next closest they got to saluting was a draw in the 2010 GF but they got totally pantsed in the replay the week after.

When you add in some off-field scandals (dwarves, schoolgirls etc), they clearly are an embarrassment all round.

Jack Brickhouse, famed Chicago sportswriter was asked why the Chicago Cubs had such an abysmal record in winning World Series.

His answer… “any team can have a bad century”.

He could have been talking about St Kilda.

 

[Freomaniac]

usually 6 teams win each year. So 1 in 3.

ChatGPT says the chances of that not occurring for 20 consecutive years is 1 in 3010.

Sad being an Essendon fan in the last 20 seasons.

Yet Port Adelaide fans and their hatred of Ken Hinkley is a bit extreme isn't it?

5 finals wins in 9 years or 6 finals wins in 12 seasons isn't bad .

Struggling sides will be lucky to win 5 or 6 finals in 30 seasons.

Carlton won a couple of finals in 2023. Not bad considering their last finals win was 2013.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

I'm surprised Fremantle isn't on the list, that would be so frustrating having 0 premierships in 30 years, but your cross town rival has 4 premiership. 2 of which West Coast got, after "Flagmantle" entered The AFL.

I'd probably say St Kilda has the most embarrassing history in possibly all of sport. 1 premiership by 1 point in 128 seasons is a joke. Not to mention Jason Blake should have won them a second premiership in the final 30 seconds of the 2010 GF, he literally soccers it to the opposition, when the ball was at his feet for him to quickly crumb and jam on his foot for a point to win it.

Fremantle would be my next pick, but The Western Bulldogs I would have put second if their draught wasn't less than a decade, since they've only had 2 premierships in 100 seasons.

 

[Freomaniac]

I'm surprised Fremantle isn't on the list, that would be so frustrating having 0 premierships in 30 years, but your cross town rival has 4 premiership. 2 of which West Coast got, after "Flagmantle" entered The AFL.

With the right parts, Freo could win the flag very very soon .

Yet you were anti Hinkley too....

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Yet you were anti Hinkley too....

I don't get your point here? How's that relevant? How does his 12 seasons of failure compare to 127 seasons of St Kila's failure or Fremantle's 30 seasons of failure?

 

[Freomaniac]

I don't get your point here? How's that relevant? How does his 12 seasons of failure compare to 127 seasons of St Kila's failure or Fremantle's 30 seasons of failure?

Well your club isn't that crash hot either!

Eagles to make finals in 2025? If not, that means no finals for 5 years in a row.

I have posted this before and post this again. Look at the landscape of the current AFL!

8 finals spots and 18 teams. Eventually we will hit 19 then 20 sides for those 8 finals spots


It will be Common for sides to spend 5 , 6, 7, 8 even 10 years in a row of no finals.

 

[GoldbergsGold]

Well your club isn't that crash hot either!

Eagles to make finals in 2025? If not, that means no finals for 5 years in a row.

Again, what's this got to do with overall history of the league and its droughts? A 5 year finals draught is not even close to any overall league record, it's not even the longest current finals drought.

I have posted this before and post this again. Look at the landscape of the current AFL!

8 finals spots and 18 teams. Eventually we will hit 19 then 20 sides for those 8 finals spots

It will be Common for sides to spend 5 , 6, 7, 8 even 10 years in a row of no finals.

What's this got to do with the long time droughts that go back to a 12 side competition?