Opinion Our Current Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Me Wrong

[Scorpus]

Our side if we had drafted better 2015-2019

B Brown - Butts - Doedee
HB Smith - Murray - Laird
C Dawson - Schoenberg - Seedsman
HF Bailey - Thilthorpe - Keays
F Rachele - Curnow - Walker
R O'Brien - Serong - Butters

I Berry - Rowbottom - Sholl - Cook

 

[Dockzy]

Only if we have picks 1 and 2 do we go tall.

Whilst I’d like a gun midfielder with our early pick don’t get me wrong what young key forwards do we have coming through? Only thilthorpe

as for unproven young mids we have Pedlar, Berry, Soligo, Taylor, Nankervis even Rachele can go through there and he’s most arguably the most promising of the lot

 

[John Who]

Here’s another vantage point, if we’re judging pass/fail from just 2 rounds:

• we’re currently ahead of Port, Preliminary finalists in the 2 previous years, with stacks of top quality draft picks (Rozee, Butters, Duursma, Jones, Sinn..)
• we’re on the same number of wins (0) as the Bulldogs, last year’s Grand finalist, with only 4% inferior to their percentage.

So with the above in mind, our rebuild isn’t that bad...or..
Maybe we should wait a bit longer to get a better assessment?

Btw, I still have high hopes for Milera. A lot of us seem to forget how elusive and efficient he can be. Just the recent years there have been some setbacks for him with the injuries.

 

[GROTTO]

Here’s another vantage point, if we’re judging pass/fail from just 2 rounds:

• we’re currently ahead of Port, Preliminary finalists in the 2 previous years, with stacks of top quality draft picks (Rozee, Butters, Duursma, Jones, Sinn..)
• we’re on the same number of wins (0) as the Bulldogs, last year’s Grand finalist, with only 4% inferior to their percentage.

So with the above in mind, our rebuild isn’t that bad...or..
Maybe we should wait a bit longer to get a better assessment?

Btw, I still have high hopes for Milera. A lot of us seem to forget how elusive and efficient he can be. Just the recent years there have been some setbacks for him with the injuries.

The team that the Eagles fielded on Sunday would beat us.

We are that bad. The rebuild is going to take us into the 2030s.

 

[John Who]

Whilst I’d like a gun midfielder with our early pick don’t get me wrong what young key forwards do we have coming through? Only thilthorpe

as for unproven young mids we have Pedlar, Berry, Soligo, Taylor, Nankervis even Rachele can go through there and he’s most arguably the most promising of the lot

Rachele looks like a Gray type, classy around goals and classy around wherever the ball goes. I took some notice of him playing as a roaming mid in the last quarter of the last game, and he was looking pretty solid. Not a bad start at all in just 2 games!

 

[John Who]

The team that the Eagles fielded on Sunday would beat us.

We are that bad. The rebuild is going to take us into the 2030s.

I’m not really arguing the issue of us being a top quality team right now. More the point that it’s way too early to say where we’re really at with our trajectory for this season alone. Even just to get a fair assessment on where all the teams are at, is currently a guessing game. Port are unlikely to end in the bottom 4 this year, and the Bulldogs are just as likely to make the Finals again this year. 2 rounds is way too early to project.

Also, all it might take is 1-2 good draft picks for each of the next 2 seasons and some solid trading and we could be back in serious business. Meanwhile, the kids we have may still improve further and become solid contributors. If Keays can improve out of sight, then it’s not unreasonable to think at least some of our kids can do the same in the next 1-2 seasons.

 

[GROTTO]

I’m not really arguing the issue of us being a top quality team right now. More the point that it’s way too early to say where we’re really at with our trajectory for this season alone. Even just to get a fair assessment on where all the teams are at, is currently a guessing game. Port are unlikely to end in the bottom 4 this year, and the Bulldogs are just as likely to make the Finals again this year. 2 rounds is way too early to project.

Also, all it might take is 1-2 good draft picks for each of the next 2 seasons and some solid trading and we could be back in serious business. Meanwhile, the kids we have may still improve further and become solid contributors. If Keays can improve out of sight, then it’s not unreasonable to think at least some of our kids can do the same in the next 1-2 seasons.

Ive watched most of the games this season and ive watched us in the preseason games, we are that far off it, it isnt funny.

I posted a post about the quality of our picks over thee last 7 years, its not bad, its worse than what Carlton picked back in the day.

We are staring down another rebuild.

 

[John Who]

Ive watched most of the games this season and ive watched us in the preseason games, we are that far off it, it isnt funny.

I posted a post about the quality of our picks over thee last 7 years, its not bad, its worse than what Carlton picked back in the day.

We are staring down another rebuild.

I think the main issue is that a lot of us are expecting first round draft picks to turn into elite players. Whereas the closer reality is that usually the top 5-6 draft picks are the more likely to turn elite. Every other picks need a bit more luck, time and opportunities to bring their game up a notch. We haven’t had that top end picks until the recent 2 years (Thilthorpe and Rachele). I agree to some extent the young players we have haven’t been turning it on like some of the other clubs, though I still think a few of them could improve a whole lot more. It’s not end game yet.

 

[aabp1978]

I think the honest analysis here is that we are only 2 drafts into our rebuild..which means we have years before we will even be competitive again, let alone a finalist. We have botched every draft from 2014 onwards IMO, and we simply dont have a recruiting staff that is able to to identify an elite midfielder..even with the luxury of higher picks…Until Hamish goes nothing will ultimately change

 

[Coopers]

Btw, I still have high hopes for Milera. A lot of us seem to forget how elusive and efficient he can be. Just the recent years there have been some setbacks for him with the injuries.

They've all had moments. Even Mcasey took a really good mark.

 

[GreyCrow]

Here’s another vantage point, if we’re judging pass/fail from just 2 rounds:

We're not. We are judging from the past 5 years of mediocre drafting with some gems that need polish

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Our side if we had drafted better 2015-2019

B Brown - Butts - Doedee
HB Smith - Murray - Laird
C Dawson - Schoenberg - Seedsman
HF Bailey - Thilthorpe - Keays
F Rachele - Curnow - Walker
R O'Brien - Serong - Butters

I Berry - Rowbottom - Sholl - Cook

You're torturing yourself mate.

 

[PoholkMe10]

Ive watched most of the games this season and ive watched us in the preseason games, we are that far off it, it isnt funny.

I posted a post about the quality of our picks over thee last 7 years, its not bad, its worse than what Carlton picked back in the day.

We are staring down another rebuild.

2020 was the first draft of our rebuild. At this very early stage, we look to have done well in the 20/21 drafts. Melbourne bombed basically all their early picks prior to 2013, as we look to have done prior to 2020. Our picks from 2016-19, albeit crap, won't determine the success of our rebuild. Its the 2020-2022/23 drafts that will determine the success of our rebuild.

 

[aabp1978]

You're torturing yourself mate.

Cant also play that game because if we drafted better we wouldnt have had access to the likes of RT or Rachele

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Our side if we had drafted better 2015-2019

B Brown - Butts - Doedee
HB Smith - Murray - Laird
C Dawson - Schoenberg - Seedsman
HF Bailey - Thilthorpe - Keays
F Rachele - Curnow - Walker
R O'Brien - Serong - Butters

I Berry - Rowbottom - Sholl - Cook

Name me an AFL side that couldn't be significantly improved with retrospective draft selections...

 

[1990crow]

The players we could have with picks very near the ones we had

Charlie Curnow
Tom Doedee
Jarrod Berry (or Shai Bolton later)
Zac Bailey (or Oscar Allen later)
Zak Butters
James Rowbottom (if we didn't want Duursma)
Caleb Serong

So just to clarify we could had 3-4 great midfielders, a great half forward and an excellent (but injury prone) forward instead of the guys we took 2015-2019

So Curnow, Berry, Bailey, Butters, Rowbottom, Serong instead of Milera, Galluci, Fogarty, Jones, McHenry, McAsey. Yikes.

Team with those players instead.

FB: Brown ~ Butts ~ Doedee
HB: Smith ~ Murray ~ Hinge
C: Dawson ~ Berry ~ Rowbottom
R: O'Brien ~ Laird ~ Butters
HF: Cook ~ Curnow ~ Bailey
FF: Rachele ~ Walker ~ Thilthorpe
B: Serong ~ Pedlar ~ Keays ~ Schoenberg

Seedsman in if he was fit.

If Kane McGoodwin we be lenient and leave McHenry, Milera and Fogarty in for Rowbottom, Curnow, Bailey.

Brown Butts Doedee
Milera Murray Smith
Dawson Berry Schoenberg
O'Brien Laird Butters
Cook Walker Keays
Rachele Thilthorpe Fogarty
Pedlar Serong Hinge McHenry/Sholl

 

[Sanders]

2020 was the first draft of our rebuild

Based on?

 

[Big Crow]

Based on?

I’m guessing it’s because it’s when we drafted Thilthorpe? First decent first rounder for a while.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

2020 was the first draft of our rebuild. At this very early stage, we look to have done well in the 20/21 drafts. Melbourne bombed basically all their early picks prior to 2013, as we look to have done prior to 2020. Our picks from 2016-19, albeit crap, won't determine the success of our rebuild. Its the 2020-2022/23 drafts that will determine the success of our rebuild.

Having some decent older guys in the 28-31 age bracket, and some promising but inexperienced younger players in the 18-22 age bracket with nothing in between is going to kill any attempt to rebuild. We desperately need to bring in quality players in the 23-27 year age bracket but they tend to be the hardest ones to pry from other clubs.

 

[Sanders]

Ultimately our 2017,18,19 drafts were horrific

No rebuild can withstanding 3 blown drafts in a row.

Add in a lack of structure and system, and we’re destined to start over.

 

[AFC979810]

I get the misery on here, but things are never as dark as they seem.

Y'all need to consider that we won a total of 7 games of footy last year 4 of which came by 12 points or less and now we have started 2022 without 3 of our top 4 players from last year (Walker, Laird, Seedsman). This puts enormous pressure on the guys who play each week. You replace Gollant with Tex, Soligo with Laird, and Pedlar with Seedsman our team is 5 goals better.

Its going to be a very rough year, but with that comes a chance to re-up at the draft and possibly recruit another player or two. We have seen the impact and class of Dawson and Rachele.

If we are looking at teams to emulate - I think Brisbane is the one. They spent 5 seasons bottom 4 (2014-2018) before spending the next 3 seasons as a top 4 team and a genuine premiership threat.

The positives are we have our bookends sorted in Thilthorpe and Butts. Dawson, Keays, Schoenberg, Rachele and Sholl have shown that they can be very good AFL footballers and are all 25 and under.

 

[adelaidecrows]

Our side if we had drafted better 2015-2019

B Brown - Butts - Doedee
HB Smith - Murray - Laird
C Dawson - Schoenberg - Seedsman
HF Bailey - Thilthorpe - Keays
F Rachele - Curnow - Walker
R O'Brien - Serong - Butters

I Berry - Rowbottom - Sholl - Cook

Drafted better or drafted perfectly with hindsight? We picked the best we could based on their current performance. Not what their performance was like at AFL level 3 years on. Go look at all the phantom drafts. We selected pretty much upon expectation. Also for the record, if we had Butters, Serong and Curnow we would unlikely have got Thilthorpe or Rachele because we wouldn't have bottomed out. Its a catch 22. Nice try though.

 

[adelaidecrows]

Ultimately our 2017,18,19 drafts were horrific

No rebuild can withstanding 3 blown drafts in a row.

Add in a lack of structure and system, and we’re destined to start over.

The rebuild only started in the 2019 draft. 2017 and 2018 were based on overall premiership capable squad improvement. Don't get me wrong, they were trash, but we are only technically 3 drafts into the rebuild. 19, 20 and 21.

 

[1970crow]

We weren't rebuilding from 2016-2018. We were gunning for a flag. The rebuild started at the end of 2019 when we cut staff and the list.

While picks from those years matter, most of the decisions we were making were around a flag. A rebuilding team wouldn't hand over 2 firsts for Bryce Gibbs as an example. That single decision has likely cost us more severely than drafting (say) Jordan Gallucci.

So based on that I think it's too early to call whether it will fail. Was our flag tilt a fail? Absolutely, and our list management in that period was a fail as well. But our rebuild is very young and the players taken in that time are basically unproven.

We also need to keep in mind that it generally takes at least 5 years, if not longer, for a team to go from finishing bottom 4 to finals. A premiership is likely 8-10 years away, so making any judgements in the first year of a rebuild is very premature. We will likely be adding a lot more players over the next 2-3 years that will form the core of our side, at that point guys like the Gooch will be long forgotten (not to mention our disastrous 2014 draft where we lost everyone of note)

Rebuild didn't start end of 2019, we had a contract in front of Sauce. It started 5 games into 2020 when we realised how utterly shit we were. That's about when Roo first mentioned it.