Opinion Our Current Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Me Wrong

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Dockzy said:
Whilst I’d like a gun midfielder with our early pick don’t get me wrong what young key forwards do we have coming through? Only thilthorpe

as for unproven young mids we have Pedlar, Berry, Soligo, Taylor, Nankervis even Rachele can go through there and he’s most arguably the most promising of the lot
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How many gun forwards did Melbourne have last year? We need mids, TT is enough draft investment forward.
 
adelaidecrows said:
The rebuild only started in the 2019 draft. 2017 and 2018 were based on overall premiership capable squad improvement. Don't get me wrong, they were trash, but we are only technically 3 drafts into the rebuild. 19, 20 and 21.
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There’s nothing technical about arbitrary lines. But more importantly list building is a continuum, and our list has a massive hole in it - and those drafts are a big reason why.
 
Just because we participated in a draft doesn't mean we were rebuilding. Every club participates in the draft every year.

When did we trade/let go Keath and Greenwood? End of 2019? That was the beginning.
 

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Scorpus said:
Our side if we had drafted better 2015-2019

B Brown - Butts - Doedee
HB Smith - Murray - Laird
C Dawson - Schoenberg - Seedsman
HF Bailey - Thilthorpe - Keays
F Rachele - Curnow - Walker
R O'Brien - Serong - Butters

I Berry - Rowbottom - Sholl - Cook
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I know it’s hypothetical but if those players are better we don’t finish 2nd last last year.
 
We aren’t competing for anything until we draft/develop a strong midfield. You look at Melbourne they have Oliver, Petracca, Gawn, viney and Brayshaw. You look at Hawthorn, West Coast and Geelong in their glory years look who they had?

The only players I’d currently have in our midfield going forward week in and week out is Schoenberg and Dawson.
 
Your midfield unit ultimately decides whether you have a shot at a flag. You probably need a core group of about 6 quite good players, a couple of them elite, plus a few forwards or defenders that can roll through.

So who from our younger crew (25 and under) fit? I'd say:

Already there:
Keays (inside)
Dawson (wing)

On the right track:
Schoenberg (inside)
Rachele (forward mid)
Sholl (wing)
Cook (forward mid)

Serious concerns about long term midfield ability:
McHenry (forward mid)
Jones (defender mid)
Hately (inside)

Too early to know but ok chances:
Pedlar
Berry
Taylor
Soligo

So where do the elite mids come from? A couple internally could get there... maybe... Otherwise we need to keep hoping to draft some or trade some in somehow.

And how likely is it that a decent number of the younger guys make it to even being good midfielders? A lot seem to be stagnating early.

Honestly, I think we may be a fair bit further away than we like to think.
 
As a comparison, how are we tracking compared to North Melbourne, the team I would argue as being in a similar cycle to us?

Under 25 mids (off the top of my head):
Jy Simpkin
Tarryn Thomas
Luke Davies-Uniacke
Jason Horne-Francis
Tom Powell
Will Phillips
Josh Goater
Jaidyn Stephenson
Cam Zurhaar
Bailey Scott

I know which young midfield I'd be putting money on, between ours and theirs.
 
Sanders said:
There’s nothing technical about arbitrary lines. But more importantly list building is a continuum, and our list has a massive hole in it - and those drafts are a big reason why.
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The bigger hole in this list is the picks lost thanks to tippett-gate who would be 28-30 years of age and in their absolute prime.

No one knows who we would have picked, but our first pick 2012 could have been Grundy. Goodbye 10 million ruck related posts from the last 10 years.

2nd pick 2012 likely no one of use, shallow draft

First pick 2013 could have been Salem, Sheed, Cripps and 2nd pick could have been Merrett, Aliir, Barrass, Ben Brown.

Plus what we would have got for Tippett.

Potentially drafting just 2 players in Grundy and Cripps / Merrett out of the picks lost would change our history. Perhaps a flag in 2017, perhaps no spoon.
 
I Lost My Keays said:
We aren’t competing for anything until we draft/develop a strong midfield. You look at Melbourne they have Oliver, Petracca, Gawn, viney and Brayshaw. You look at Hawthorn, West Coast and Geelong in their glory years look who they had?

The only players I’d currently have in our midfield going forward week in and week out is Schoenberg and Dawson.
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Its easy to compare those Melbourne players to ours and say ours arent much chop. But at the same age as Shoenberg, our berg had more touches per game average than Viney and Brayshaw, same as Petracca. Only Oliver was ahead with his 400 handballs a week. It takes time
 

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Danger Zone said:
Your midfield unit ultimately decides whether you have a shot at a flag. You probably need a core group of about 6 quite good players, a couple of them elite, plus a few forwards or defenders that can roll through.

So who from our younger crew (25 and under) fit? I'd say:

Already there:
Keays (inside)
Dawson (wing)

On the right track:
Schoenberg (inside)
Rachele (forward mid)
Sholl (wing)
Cook (forward mid)

Serious concerns about long term midfield ability:
McHenry (forward mid)
Jones (defender mid)
Hately (inside)

Too early to know but ok chances:
Pedlar
Berry
Taylor
Soligo

So where do the elite mids come from? A couple internally could get there... maybe... Otherwise we need to keep hoping to draft some or trade some in somehow.

And how likely is it that a decent number of the younger guys make it to even being good midfielders? A lot seem to be stagnating early.

Honestly, I think we may be a fair bit further away than we like to think.
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The rebuild doesn't extend to our inside midfield though. Between ROB, Sloane, Laird, Crouch, Keays and Schoenberg, we think we've got it covered.

We only look at the contested ball numbers and total possession count that our group accumulates.

This has been evident in our selections, our recruiting and what we've said in press conferences.

We identified weakness on the outside, so we brought in Dawson.

We've targeted small forwards in the draft in recent times.

Sloane pretty much blamed the forwards after the weekend's game. We also saw TT axed after the Freo game, with no change to the midfield that barely broke even against a weakened Dockers outfit.

You can pretty much guarantee we will focus our attention to key forwards in the trade/draft period this year.

Matt Crouch in 2020 is the only time in the last 3-4 years I can remember a senior inside mid actually being dropped.
 
Pilchard_Adams said:
The bigger hole in this list is the picks lost thanks to tippett-gate who would be 28-30 years of age and in their absolute prime.

No one knows who we would have picked, but our first pick 2012 could have been Grundy. Goodbye 10 million ruck related posts from the last 10 years.

2nd pick 2012 likely no one of use, shallow draft

First pick 2013 could have been Salem, Sheed, Cripps and 2nd pick could have been Merrett, Aliir, Barrass, Ben Brown.

Plus what we would have got for Tippett.

Potentially drafting just 2 players in Grundy and Cripps / Merrett out of the picks lost would change our history. Perhaps a flag in 2017, perhaps no spoon.
Click to expand...

I think it's time to move on from the Tippett sanctions.

We have since built a list that went in to a grand final as favorites and then 3 years later won our first wooden spoon.

May as well start suggesting our problems are due to the AFL not letting Bryce Gibbs join as a father/son pick.
 
Scorpus said:
My hypothetical includes us tanking those years for the same picks ;)
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FFS, should have tanked for JHF. Can't even hypothetically do it right!!!



Hypothetically, we also get a PP for Rachele...
 
AFC979810 said:
I think it's time to move on from the Tippett sanctions.

We have since built a list that went in to a grand final as favorites and then 3 years later won our first wooden spoon.

May as well start suggesting our problems are due to the AFL not letting Bryce Gibbs join as a father/son pick.
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Rather than due to trading for him?
 
AFC979810 said:
I think it's time to move on from the Tippett sanctions.

We have since built a list that went in to a grand final as favorites and then 3 years later won our first wooden spoon.

May as well start suggesting our problems are due to the AFL not letting Bryce Gibbs join as a father/son pick.
Click to expand...

Why? Would those picks not currently be in their prime and possibly have changed the direction of the club?

We certainly didnt build a list for a grand final after the tippett sanctions (2014 onwards), the only players added to the grand final team from the 2014, 2015, 2016 drafts and trade periods were Seedsman, Lever and Greenwood I think. The building was done before. And what we have now was built 2012-2018 where the sanctions damage was done
 
dogs105 said:
FFS, should have tanked for JHF. Can't even hypothetically do it right!!!



Hypothetically, we also get a PP for Rachele...
Click to expand...
Imagine the melts if North accepted our offer of the 3 firsts for JHF...We wouldn't have Dawson, Rachelle or our first next year.

Rachelle goes out and kicks 6 goals in 2 games for North and we have JHF not as BOG in either game. People would be calling for the club to be shut down.
 
Pilchard_Adams said:
The bigger hole in this list is the picks lost thanks to tippett-gate who would be 28-30 years of age and in their absolute prime.

No one knows who we would have picked, but our first pick 2012 could have been Grundy. Goodbye 10 million ruck related posts from the last 10 years.

2nd pick 2012 likely no one of use, shallow draft

First pick 2013 could have been Salem, Sheed, Cripps and 2nd pick could have been Merrett, Aliir, Barrass, Ben Brown.

Plus what we would have got for Tippett.

Potentially drafting just 2 players in Grundy and Cripps / Merrett out of the picks lost would change our history. Perhaps a flag in 2017, perhaps no spoon.
Click to expand...

Grundy was never available to us even without the picks being lost

And we were lucky to lose picks in such awful shitty, 3rd rate drafts
 
Sanders said:
Grundy was never available to us even without the picks being lost

And we were lucky to lose picks in such awful shitty, 3rd rate drafts
Click to expand...

Grundy was available to us.

We used/wasted our mini draft pick on Brad Crouch instead.
 
Which club is the benchmark for successful rebuilds, and what was their model?

Melbourne - spent years down the bottom, with several rebuilds
Dogs - Lots of help from FS/Academy (Wallis, Liberatore, Hunter, Darcy, JUH)
Swans - Lots of help from FS/Academy (Gulden, Campbell, Heeney, Mills, Blakey)
Carlton - see Melbourne
Brisbane - traded in some of their best players (Neale, Lyons, Cameron, McCarthy, Robinson, Adams), NGA (Hipwood, Andrews) and FA (Daniher)
Port - trades (Aliir, Burton, Dixon, Fantasia, Lycett, McKenzie) and draft (Wines, Butters). They then have a lot of other solid players from the draft like Houston, Bonner, Duursma, Georgiades, Rozee.

So we need to use a variety of different ways to get good players in, not just the draft. Your top mids can come from the draft (usually top 10 picks) but we can also get them from trades or if we weren't the crows, NGA or FS.

People talk about how great Jarrod Lyons is now, but forget he is exactly what we already have here, a very good, slow inside mid like Laird and Crouch.

What we are missing is 2 elite mids, so we need to work out how to get them. We have the cap space and the draft collateral, so if they aren't in the draft this year, we should be trading for them.
 
Thetrader15 said:
Imagine the melts if North accepted our offer of the 3 firsts for JHF...We wouldn't have Dawson, Rachelle or our first next year.

Rachelle goes out and kicks 6 goals in 2 games for North and we have JHF not as BOG in either game. People would be calling for the club to be shut down.
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Your going early mate...
What about when Rachelle is still in a shyt team when his contract is due and is back off to Vic ... JHF signs a Buddy contract at North and is the best mid in the comp.. we butcher whatever pick we have nxt yr.

Our rebuild is 2002 Carlton style.
The club is backing players that everyone else knows aren't going to deliver... and when Nicks gets asked about the youngsters in the group he consistently refers to "how a Ned McHenry goes about it" fmd.

Laughing stock.
 
Pilchard_Adams said:
Why? Would those picks not currently be in their prime and possibly have changed the direction of the club?

We certainly didnt build a list for a grand final after the tippett sanctions (2014 onwards), the only players added to the grand final team from the 2014, 2015, 2016 drafts and trade periods were Seedsman, Lever and Greenwood I think. The building was done before. And what we have now was built 2012-2018 where the sanctions damage was done
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Because it's all massive what if's that occurred many seasons ago and the club has had ample time to recover.

Yes we could have picked a great player. We could have picked an absolute dud. Either way we likely still would have F*cked it all up at the end of 2017 and still been in the exact same predicament we are now.
 
triggyscrewedus said:
Our rebuild is 2002 Carlton style.
The club is backing players that everyone else knows aren't going to deliver... and when Nicks gets asked about the youngsters in the group he consistently refers to "how a Ned McHenry goes about it" fmd.

Laughing stock.
Click to expand...

We are doing no such thing. We are trying to get as much experience into the team as possible so we don't get flogged by 60 points each week.
 

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Opinion Our Current Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Me Wrong

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