Resource The list your Ken Hinkley Era Stats Thread

SpaceCoyote · Aug 17, 2022

Janus said:
Set your faces to stun:

2015 vs Fremantle (A) - leading by 3 at 3/4 time (lost by 7)
2015 v North Melbourne (A) - leading by 8 at 3/4 time (won by 8)
2015 v Hawthorn (H) - leading by 41 at 3/4 time (won by 8)
2015 v West Coast (H) - trailing by 5 at 3/4 time (lost by 10)
2015 v Carlton (A) - trailing by 23 at 3/4 time (lost by 4)
2015 v Sydney (A) - trailing by 24 at 3/4 time (lost by 10)
2015 v Collingwood (H) - leading by 11 at 3/4 time (won by 3)
2015 v Adelaide (H) - trailing by 30 at 3/4 time (lost by 3) - this was the Phil Walsh tribute game

2016 v Carlton (A) - leading by 5 at 3/4 time (lost by 2)
2016 v West Coast (H) - trailing by 19 at 3/4 time (lost by 8)
2016 v Western Bulldogs (H) - leading by 9 at 3/4 time (lost by 3)

2017 v West Coast (H) - trailing by 21 at 3/4 time (lost by 10)
2017 v Geelong (A) - trailing by 5 at 3/4 time (lost by 2) - this was the Dixon game
2017 v St Kilda (H) - leading by 7 at 3/4 time (won by 2) - the Ryder2Gray game
2017 v West Coast (H - EF) - trailing by 3 at 3/4 time (lost by 2)

2018 v Brisbane (H) - leading by 18 at 3/4 time (won by 5)
2018 v Adelaide (H) - leading by 12 at 3/4 time (won by 5) - Stevie Motlop, what a tiiimmeee!
2018 v Hawthorn (A) - trailing by 7 at 3/4 time (lost by 3)
2018 v Melbourne (H) - trailing by 8 at 3/4 time (won by 10)
2018 v Fremantle (A) - trailing by 10 at 3/4 time (lost by 9)
2018 v Adelaide (A) - leading by 1 at 3/4 time (lost by 3) - the Jenkins 'fib goal that wasn't' game
2018 v West Coast (H) - leading by 15 at 3/4 time (lost by 4) - the 'Dixon breaks his leg' game

2019 v Richmond (H) - trailing by 2 at 3/4 time (lost by 7) - 'We've got a long way to go to be as good as Richmond'
2019 v Geelong (H) - leading by 9 at 3/4 time (won by 11)
2019 v GWS (H) - trailing by 10 at 3/4 time (lost by 1)

2020 v Carlton (A) - draw at 3/4 time (won by 3)
2020 v Hawthorn (H) - draw at 3/4 time (won by 10)
2020 v Richmond (H - PF) - trailing by 2 at 3/4 time (lost by 6)

2021 v Richmond (H) - leading by 11 at 3/4 time (won by 2)
2021 v Collingwood (A) - trailing by 13 at 3/4 time (won by 1)
2021 v Sydney (H) - leading by 15 at 3/4 time (won by 10)
2021 v Adelaide (A) - trailing by 10 at 3/4 time (won by 4)
2021 v Western Bulldogs (A) - trailing by 11 at 3/4 time (won by 2)

2022 v Brisbane (A) - leading by 15 at 3/4 time (lost by 11)
2022 v Adelaide (A) - leading by 13 at 3/4 time (lost by 4)
2022 v Carlton (A) - trailing by 17 at 3/4 time (lost by 3)
2022 v St Kilda (A) - trailing by 1 at 3/4 time (won by 1)
2022 v Richmond (A) - trailing by 1 at 3/4 time (lost by 12)
2022 v Gold Coast (H) - leading by 13 at 3/4 time (won by 2)
2022 v Fremantle (A) - trailing by 34 at 3/4 time (lost by 8)
2022 v Geelong (H) - leading by 7 at 3/4 time (lost by 12)
2022 v Collingwood (A) - trailing by 17 at 3/4 time (lost by 6)

6 times we've been down by 4+ goals at 3/4 time and did the false rally thing. The other 19 matches we lost, we genuinely had a shot to win and it could have gone either way.

It_Almost_Looks_Like_An_Arrow_The_Simpsons (2).gif

jonasshirtfront · Aug 17, 2022

Janus said:
Set your faces to stun:

2015 vs Fremantle (A) - leading by 3 at 3/4 time (lost by 7)
2015 v North Melbourne (A) - leading by 8 at 3/4 time (won by 8)
2015 v Hawthorn (H) - leading by 41 at 3/4 time (won by 8)
2015 v West Coast (H) - trailing by 5 at 3/4 time (lost by 10)
2015 v Carlton (A) - trailing by 23 at 3/4 time (lost by 4)
2015 v Sydney (A) - trailing by 24 at 3/4 time (lost by 10)
2015 v Collingwood (H) - leading by 11 at 3/4 time (won by 3)
2015 v Adelaide (H) - trailing by 30 at 3/4 time (lost by 3) - this was the Phil Walsh tribute game

2016 v Carlton (A) - leading by 5 at 3/4 time (lost by 2)
2016 v West Coast (H) - trailing by 19 at 3/4 time (lost by 8)
2016 v Western Bulldogs (H) - leading by 9 at 3/4 time (lost by 3)

2017 v West Coast (H) - trailing by 21 at 3/4 time (lost by 10)
2017 v Geelong (A) - trailing by 5 at 3/4 time (lost by 2) - this was the Dixon game
2017 v St Kilda (H) - leading by 7 at 3/4 time (won by 2) - the Ryder2Gray game
2017 v West Coast (H - EF) - trailing by 3 at 3/4 time (lost by 2)

2018 v Brisbane (H) - leading by 18 at 3/4 time (won by 5)
2018 v Adelaide (H) - leading by 12 at 3/4 time (won by 5) - Stevie Motlop, what a tiiimmeee!
2018 v Hawthorn (A) - trailing by 7 at 3/4 time (lost by 3)
2018 v Melbourne (H) - trailing by 8 at 3/4 time (won by 10)
2018 v Fremantle (A) - trailing by 10 at 3/4 time (lost by 9)
2018 v Adelaide (A) - leading by 1 at 3/4 time (lost by 3) - the Jenkins 'fib goal that wasn't' game
2018 v West Coast (H) - leading by 15 at 3/4 time (lost by 4) - the 'Dixon breaks his leg' game

2019 v Richmond (H) - trailing by 2 at 3/4 time (lost by 7) - 'We've got a long way to go to be as good as Richmond'
2019 v Geelong (H) - leading by 9 at 3/4 time (won by 11)
2019 v GWS (H) - trailing by 10 at 3/4 time (lost by 1)

2020 v Carlton (A) - draw at 3/4 time (won by 3)
2020 v Hawthorn (H) - draw at 3/4 time (won by 10)
2020 v Richmond (H - PF) - trailing by 2 at 3/4 time (lost by 6)

2021 v Richmond (H) - leading by 11 at 3/4 time (won by 2)
2021 v Collingwood (A) - trailing by 13 at 3/4 time (won by 1)
2021 v Sydney (H) - leading by 15 at 3/4 time (won by 10)
2021 v Adelaide (A) - trailing by 10 at 3/4 time (won by 4)
2021 v Western Bulldogs (A) - trailing by 11 at 3/4 time (won by 2)

2022 v Brisbane (A) - leading by 15 at 3/4 time (lost by 11)
2022 v Adelaide (A) - leading by 13 at 3/4 time (lost by 4)
2022 v Carlton (A) - trailing by 17 at 3/4 time (lost by 3)
2022 v St Kilda (A) - trailing by 1 at 3/4 time (won by 1)
2022 v Richmond (A) - trailing by 1 at 3/4 time (lost by 12)
2022 v Gold Coast (H) - leading by 13 at 3/4 time (won by 2)
2022 v Fremantle (A) - trailing by 34 at 3/4 time (lost by 8)
2022 v Geelong (H) - leading by 7 at 3/4 time (lost by 12)
2022 v Collingwood (A) - trailing by 17 at 3/4 time (lost by 6)

6 times we've been down by 4+ goals at 3/4 time and did the false rally thing. The other 19 matches we lost, we genuinely had a shot to win and it could have gone either way.

So like, did you have to do this by hand or do you have a big excel file with these quarter by quarter results in it? Also man 2015 left an indelible mark on my psyche.

PortWTF · Aug 18, 2022

PortWTF said:
Requesting a Flat Track Bully table, all clubs vs final bottom 4 since 2013. I reckon Port would be at or near the top.

Decided to do it myself. All teams v bottom 4 clubs (end of year)

	Won	Lost	Drawn	Winning %
Geelong	45	3	0	93.75
Port Adelaide	44	4	0	91.67
Richmond	49	6	0	89.09
Collingwood	40	5	0	88.89
Bulldogs	44	7	0	86.27
Sydney	42	7	0	85.71
West Coast	40	7	1	83.33
Adelaide	40	9	0	81.63
Fremantle	37	10	0	78.72
St Kilda	33	10	0	76.74
GWS	36	9	2	76.60
Essendon	32	12	0	72.73
Brisbane	34	13	0	72.34
North Melbourne	33	13	0	71.74
Hawthorn	31	15	0	67.39
Melbourne	30	17	0	63.83
Gold Coast	31	21	0	59.62
Carlton	23	25	0	47.92

Games Port lost
2013 Round 10 Lost to Bulldogs by 9 in Darwin
2015 Round 7 Lost to Brisbane by 37 at Gabba
2015 Round 12 Lost to Carlton by 4 at MCG
2016 Round 13 Lost to Fremantle by 17 at Subiaco

What we all knew. Talent beats bottom teams. Coaching and talent beats top teams.

TazD · Aug 18, 2022

PortWTF said:
Decided to do it myself. All teams v bottom 4 clubs (end of year)

Won Lost Drawn Winning %
Geelong 45 3 0 93.75
Port Adelaide 44 4 0 91.67
Richmond 49 6 0 89.09
Collingwood 40 5 0 88.89
Bulldogs 44 7 0 86.27
Sydney 42 7 0 85.71
West Coast 40 7 1 83.33
Adelaide 40 9 0 81.63
Fremantle 37 10 0 78.72
St Kilda 33 10 0 76.74
GWS 36 9 2 76.60
Essendon 32 12 0 72.73
Brisbane 34 13 0 72.34
North Melbourne 33 13 0 71.74
Hawthorn 31 15 0 67.39
Melbourne 30 17 0 63.83
Gold Coast 31 21 0 59.62
Carlton 23 25 0 47.92

Games Port lost
2013 Round 10 Lost to Bulldogs by 9 in Darwin
2015 Round 7 Lost to Brisbane by 37 at Gabba
2015 Round 12 Lost to Carlton by 4 at MCG
2016 Round 13 Lost to Fremantle by 17 at Subiaco

What we all knew. Talent beats bottom teams. Coaching and talent beats top teams.

Lol only club in that top 9 not to play in a grandfinal. Thats so Kenvan

GremioPower · Aug 18, 2022

PortWTF said:
Requesting a Flat Track Bully table, all clubs vs final bottom 4 since 2013. I reckon Port would be at or near the top.

We are near the top considering the Bottom-14 (not a typo). I need to update the numbers.

GremioPower · Aug 18, 2022

Janus said:
So when we play away from home:

30 games - 9 wins, 21 losses (30% win rate)

And when we play at home:

28 games - 15 wins, 13 losses (53.6% win rate)

Cool.

When we play away from home, since 2015:

20 games - 6 wins, 14 losses (30% win rate)

When we play at home:

23 games - 12 wins, 11 losses (52.2% win rate)

All these stats tell me is that a) home ground advantage is a real thing when it comes to a close game and b) Port doesn't get the same leg up that other teams do in those games, since our win rate is only a little over 50% whereas other teams win rate against us in close games at their home ground is 70%.

One can read it differently. The split would show that we choke in close games away from home; while at home, we manage to make it a “coin-toss,” as close games are supposed to be.

jonasshirtfront · Aug 18, 2022

GremioPower said:
One can read it differently. The split would show that we choke in close games away from home; while at home, we manage to make it a “coin-toss,” as close games are supposed to be.

Do we have the home win% and away win% in all games for Ken? We know in general that he does worse in close games than he does in general, and we know his win% home vs away in those games, but how do those compare to his stats in all home or away games? I'd only like 200 games so I can probably create the data myself but I'd rather someone else had already done it.

GremioPower · Aug 18, 2022

jonasshirtfront said:
Do we have the home win% and away win% in all games for Ken? We know in general that he does worse in close games than he does in general, and we know his win% home vs away in those games, but how do those compare to his stats in all home or away games? I'd only like 200 games so I can probably create the data myself but I'd rather someone else had already done it.

I’m not sure I have such a split. I would need to check it. But it’s 30 past midnight, and the data is in the office! Only in the morning…

Del165198 · Aug 18, 2022

PortWTF said:
Decided to do it myself. All teams v bottom 4 clubs (end of year)

Won Lost Drawn Winning %
Geelong 45 3 0 93.75
Port Adelaide 44 4 0 91.67
Richmond 49 6 0 89.09
Collingwood 40 5 0 88.89
Bulldogs 44 7 0 86.27
Sydney 42 7 0 85.71
West Coast 40 7 1 83.33
Adelaide 40 9 0 81.63
Fremantle 37 10 0 78.72
St Kilda 33 10 0 76.74
GWS 36 9 2 76.60
Essendon 32 12 0 72.73
Brisbane 34 13 0 72.34
North Melbourne 33 13 0 71.74
Hawthorn 31 15 0 67.39
Melbourne 30 17 0 63.83
Gold Coast 31 21 0 59.62
Carlton 23 25 0 47.92

Games Port lost
2013 Round 10 Lost to Bulldogs by 9 in Darwin
2015 Round 7 Lost to Brisbane by 37 at Gabba
2015 Round 12 Lost to Carlton by 4 at MCG
2016 Round 13 Lost to Fremantle by 17 at Subiaco

What we all knew. Talent beats bottom teams. Coaching and talent beats top teams.

Lol at carlolton having a less than 50% record against the bottom 4

Janus · Aug 18, 2022

jonasshirtfront said:
Do we have the home win% and away win% in all games for Ken? We know in general that he does worse in close games than he does in general, and we know his win% home vs away in those games, but how do those compare to his stats in all home or away games? I'd only like 200 games so I can probably create the data myself but I'd rather someone else had already done it.

2013 - Home 7 wins, 4 losses (63.6%). Away 5 wins, 7 losses (41.7%).

2014 - Home 10 wins, 2 losses (83.3%). Away 6 wins, 7 losses (46.2%).

2015 - Home 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%). Away 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%).

2016 - Home 4 wins, 7 losses (36.4%). Away 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%).

2017 - Home 8 wins, 4 losses (66.7%). Away 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%).

2018 - Home 7 wins, 4 losses (63.6%). Away 5 wins, 6 losses (45.5%).

2019 - Home 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%). Away 5 wins, 6 losses (45.5%).

2020 - Home 7 wins, 2 losses (77.8%). Away 8 wins, 2 losses (80%).

2021 - Home 8 wins, 4 losses (66.7%). Away 10 wins, 2 losses (83.3%).

2022* - Home 6 wins, 4 losses* (60%). Away 3 wins, 8 losses (27.3%).

This is why no one sane should even bother listening to the general consensus of this forum. This is the data the PAFC board would look at when making a decision as to whether Hinkley can coach - if you combine this with the close game data, you'd go 'well, if we had Fantasia and Dixon for those games this year, and we had an easier fixture...'

Generally speaking, Hinkley has a positive win loss record at home and breaks even away. When he has a decent side, he'll win those close away matches that we normally just get close in.

jonasshirtfront · Aug 18, 2022

GremioPower said:
CLOSE GAMES RECORD (12pts or fewer)

View attachment 1480015

2013, 2020, and 2021 are the only seasons with more wins than losses.

In the other SEVEN seasons, we had a losing record.

---

P.S.: In R3 2022, the actual difference was -4.

I only noticed when I broke this up into home and away results for my own purposes: We didn't win a close away game between 18 April 2015 (against Norf) and 23 May 2021 against Collingwood in the final days of Nathan Buckley's turgid gameplan.

jonasshirtfront · Aug 18, 2022

Janus said:
2013 - Home 7 wins, 4 losses (63.6%). Away 5 wins, 7 losses (41.7%).

2014 - Home 10 wins, 2 losses (83.3%). Away 6 wins, 7 losses (46.2%).

2015 - Home 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%). Away 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%).

2016 - Home 4 wins, 7 losses (36.4%). Away 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%).

2017 - Home 8 wins, 4 losses (66.7%). Away 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%).

2018 - Home 7 wins, 4 losses (63.6%). Away 5 wins, 6 losses (45.5%).

2019 - Home 6 wins, 5 losses (54.5%). Away 5 wins, 6 losses (45.5%).

2020 - Home 7 wins, 2 losses (77.8%). Away 8 wins, 2 losses (80%).

2021 - Home 8 wins, 4 losses (66.7%). Away 10 wins, 2 losses (83.3%).

2022* - Home 6 wins, 4 losses* (60%). Away 3 wins, 8 losses (27.3%).

This is why no one sane should even bother listening to the general consensus of this forum. This is the data the PAFC board would look at when making a decision as to whether Hinkley can coach - if you combine this with the close game data, you'd go 'well, if we had Fantasia and Dixon for those games this year, and we had an easier fixture...'

Generally speaking, Hinkley has a positive win loss record at home and breaks even away. When he has a decent side, he'll win those close away matches that we normally just get close in.

Thanks, so after aggregating all that (although I left out 2020 because home/away doesn't always correspond to actual home or away games that year) under Hinkley we've performed 7.8% worse in close games at home compared to all games at home (53.6% compared to 61.4%), and an incredible 20.5% worse in close games away (30% vs 50.5%). I would normally expect the close game numbers to be closer to 50% than the random game numbers just because there will be more luck involved in determining the outcome of a close game than a 10 goal drubbing, which makes our away close game numbers even more noteworthy because it actually gets a lot further away from 50%. That speaks to me of a side that can't deal with the kind of scrutiny that comes from an away crowd, a mentally weak team. In the end I think that comes down to the coach, he's the one who prepares the players mentally and trains them week in and week out. Mentality of the team is like 50% of his job, especially someone like Ken who doesn't seem to be very tactical.

FourthTimeAround · Aug 20, 2022

Here’s a stat that tells a painful story

This is the FIFTH year out of the last 8, where we’ve missed the finals with a percentage of 105 or greater.

GremioPower · Aug 20, 2022

FourthTimeAround said:
Here’s a stat that tells a painful story

This is the FIFTH year out of the last 8, where we’ve missed the finals with a percentage of 105 or greater.

Those are all misses. No surprise, though.

We usually kick the sh*t out of bad teams and lose close games against good teams.

FourthTimeAround · Aug 20, 2022

GremioPower said:
Those are all misses. No surprise, though.

We usually kick the sh*t out of bad teams and lose close games against good teams.

I think over those 5 years, we were 6-18 for games within 2 goals.

Coobk001 · Aug 20, 2022

FourthTimeAround said:
Here’s a stat that tells a painful story

This is the FIFTH year out of the last 8, where we’ve missed the finals with a percentage of 105 or greater.

Great stat. Absolutely embraced the purpose of this thread.

GremioPower · Aug 20, 2022

FourthTimeAround said:
I think over those 5 years, we were 6-18 for games within 2 goals.

9-21

tribey · Aug 21, 2022

GremioPower said:
View attachment 1484990

9-21

Here’s to the next pandemic

El_Scorcho · Aug 21, 2022

Janus said:
Generally speaking, Hinkley has a positive win loss record at home and breaks even away. When he has a decent side, he'll win those close away matches that we normally just get close in.

Yeah, we've seen it. He then can't string the 3-4 wins together against top 4 opposition you need to win a flag. Two finals wins in 8 years.

If we gave Ken a 10 year contract tomorrow, it wouldn't shock me at all to see us make the top 4 a couple of times. We're never winning a flag though.

GremioPower · Aug 22, 2022

Port’s 2023 Season

v. Bottom-6

Port, 6-2 (.750)
R2, Port 56-120 Hawks
R3, WL 96-92 Port
R6, Port 117-33 WC
R9, North 46-115 Port
R11, Port 66-50 Essington
R17, Port 84-29 GWS
R22, Essington 62-146 Port
R23, Port 111-55 WL

---

Against the rest of the league: 4-10 (.286)

v. Top-4: 1-5 (.167)
(Cats, Dees, Swans, Pies)

v. Top-8: 2-9 (.182)
(Top-4, plus Freo, Lions, Tigers, Dogs)

PatientMental · Aug 22, 2022

El_Scorcho said:
Yeah, we've seen it. He then can't string the 3-4 wins together against top 4 opposition you need to win a flag. Two finals wins in 8 years.

If we gave Ken a 10 year contract tomorrow, it wouldn't shock me at all to see us make the top 4 a couple of times. We're never winning a flag though.

Dw, if we keep a percentage over 100% we'll nab a flag.

Ilias M · Aug 28, 2022

Happy clappers still buy this spin

bow and arrow · Aug 28, 2022

If we had an even slightly more efficient game plan and learnt to kick we might actually win those close games. Even so our home record is terrible!

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

EskimoPAFC · Aug 28, 2022

Ilias M said:
View attachment 1492807
Happy clappers still buy this spin

The worst thing about this is that he isnt wrong. We could have made finals this year after losing 5 in a row.

Its that after 10 ****ing years "making finals" is what youre aiming for.

Del165198 · Aug 28, 2022

EskimoPAFC said:
The worst thing about this is that he isnt wrong. We could have made finals this year after losing 5 in a row.

Its that after 10 ******* years "making finals" is what youre aiming for.

Well we played prelims and finished top 2 two years in a row. What should we aim for next year then?

"Duhhhr make da finals"

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