Player Watch 2023 AFL Draft Pool Discussion Thread

[Strapping Young Lad]

Same rule applies to this thread as other years, keep it on topic about the kids.
Don’t get bogged down on what other teams might do or where they will finish.

Trade speculation belongs here.
That's also where you can discuss your mock drafts or pick trades.

Any McCabe, Dear or Maginness talk belongs here.

 

[2OLD 2SLOW]

I've watched him play a few times. The open nature of U18 football and the pushing out of the extremes in stature, strength, athletic performance and skill in the AFL make his height very relevant. What he can do around other U18 footballers who aren't nearly as talented, in a game that isn't nearly congested, isn't going to match up to what he can do in the AFL. It makes him less likely to be able to impact in the midfield, it makes him more easily defended by taller and more athletic defenders, and it makes him more easily exploited defensively if we were to potentially play him as a half back.

Lack of height to the extreme of Watson is a hard ceiling to how much he can achieve in the AFL.

He's 1-2 cm shorter than Kysaiah Pickett. If you're good enough you're tall enough.

The one virtue of being short is the ability to turn sharply and be evasive. Most short players don't amount to much because they are not particularly zippy. Just short. From his game highlights (multiple highlights), Watson does appear to have really good burst speed, and the nous to hit the ball at pace (which is an electric combo).

I haven't watched enough of Duursma to compare, so I'm not all in on Watson (will actually keep my powder dry for a change), but vision of Watson does remind me of the Australia V Ireland international rules games.
I remember thinking how zippy and agile our smaller players were - but the smaller Irish players made ours look slow and cumbersome. Even some of our aboriginal stars looked pedestrian by comparison. I could imagine Watson running rings around defenders. Time will tell.

 

[Ashman23]

So pick four, McCabe, Dear, upgrade Newcombe and we go home happy? Maybe a sneaky chance at TJ?

 

[lethalselbow]

Does Ginnivan in mean Wizard Watson may not be on our radar anymore?

 

[MasterSamurai]

How on earth Curtin won't be picked up by beggars is just mind numbing list management!!! He reads the ball when In defence , just as good as any in his class. Can and in time, will most certainly play as a kpd, coupled with the fact that he has a very good peg on him, it be surprising if beggars bypass! Eagles I know, are extremely keen on him but need that pick two from beggars .
As long as we put time into developing Curtin into a kpd, then I'm all in for him.

 

[burger09]

We need Wiz.

"The Wiz it is" campaign starts now.

 

[LunchboxLegend]

How on earth Curtin won't be picked up by beggars is just mind numbing list management!!! He reads the ball when In defence , just as good as any in his class. Can and in time, will most certainly play as a kpd, coupled with the fact that he has a very good peg on him, it be surprising if beggars bypass! Eagles I know, are extremely keen on him but need that pick two from beggars .
As long as we put time into developing Curtin into a kpd, then I'm all in for him.

Go home factor.
Burnt by JHF, would look pretty silly if it happened again.

 

[TylerDurden]

Double down. Take Wiz.

 

[hardway]

Draft the wiz and we become a Friday night time slot team.

 

[stillahawk]

Then, we should pick him up in the view that Reid will want to go home in a couple of years for a direct swap.

At the very least we will have 2 teams vying for him we just have to make sure to extend the contract a year before it expires so there will be no repeat of the Brockman scenario where we weren't adequately compensated.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Looking more likely Norf will be choosing McKercher and Duursma.

Leaving us Watson and Curtin.

Watson is the one. We need that forward pressure with Ginni.

Watson isn't the type of player that puts on forward pressure, his tackle numbers are poor.

 

[stillahawk]

Go home factor.
Burnt by JHF, would look pretty silly if it happened again.

Then we should pick him up for a direct swap in the view that Reid will want to go home in a couple of years.

At the very least we will have 2 teams vying for him and we just have to make sure to extend the contract a year before it expires so there will be no repeat of the Brockman scenario where we weren't adequately compensated.

 

[Dewnior]

You would think bringing in Ginny and Mass would decrease the likelihood of taking Wiz

 

[MC_9]

Watson isn't the type of player that puts on forward pressure, his tackle numbers are poor.

Yep agree, with the trade of ginnivan, wiz isn't as important. Especially as he isn't great defensively.

Would be good to get Curtain, we need to add elite Key Position talent.

On Pixel 5 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[projectdingley]

Watson isn't the type of player that puts on forward pressure, his tackle numbers are poor.

Tell me you haven’t watched Watson without telling me.

 

[projectdingley]

Yep agree, with the trade of ginnivan, wiz isn't as important. Especially as he isn't great defensively.

Would be good to get Curtain, we need to add elite Key Position talent.

On Pixel 5 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Ginnivan, Moore, Breust is a combination with no speed and tackle pressure. Oppo defences will waltz through. Watto adds both and will fill the void when Breust is done.

Curtin isn’t a key position player. He’s stated multiple times he sees himself as a midfielder, also spent all of this year playing in the midfield.

 

[TylerDurden]

Ginnivan, Moore, Breust is a combination with no speed and tackle pressure. Oppo defences will waltz through. Watto adds both and will fill the void when Breust is done.

Curtin isn’t a key position player. He’s stated multiple times he sees himself as a midfielder, also spent all of this year playing in the midfield.

Absolutely spot on.

 

[TDS7]

Tell me you haven’t watched Watson without telling me.

Two tackles in the four games of the Ranges finals campaign. He's just not that strong a tackler, nothing to do with effort or speed. It won't get better in the AFL either. He got more playing loose back, but as a forward his tackling numbers are poor. That's not to say he doesn't bring pressure in other ways, but it's nowhere near a strength of his.

 

[VandoHawk]

I like Curtin more than most but a forward-line of Moore, CMac, Ginnivan and Watson is very appealing.

 

[projectdingley]

Two tackles in the four games of the Ranges finals campaign. He's just not that strong a tackler, nothing to do with effort or speed. It won't get better in the AFL either. He got more playing loose back, but as a forward his tackling numbers are poor. That's not to say he doesn't bring pressure in other ways, but it's nowhere near a strength of his.

Easily improved at the level. I’ve seen vision of him running and bringing down opponents double his size.

He is 1kg heavier than Kozzie Pickett in his draft year. Kozzie averaged 2.7 tackles in the SANFL U18’s. Watson averaged 3.7 tackles a game this season for the Rangers.

Kozzie is now a pressure, tackling, and goal kicking machine at AFL level. Watson is a better talent than Kozzie was at u18 level that’s for sure. Just tells you how good he could become.

 

[The Chad and I]

Ginnivan proves my point about small forwards.
We just got one who kicked 40 goals in a season at age 19 for the price of steak knives.
Why would we use pick 4 on Watson?
Is he really going to be better than Rachele, Rankine, Pickett etc?
Doubt it.

Here's a table of the top non-KP forwards for 2023 and the picks used the last time they were drafted.
Sorted by draft type, then descending order or picks.



2023 goals by non-KP forwards <- click

Do not use a top 5 pick on a small forward!

discl: may contain errors, compiled by chatgpt. e.g. walters one is def wrong.

 

[user33]

FWIW lots of previous discussion around Curtin being a key defender or not. In Cal Twoomey’s draft guide, he has Curtin listed as a key defender. Curtin’s size as a 18yo also suggest the same.

With the dogs not entering a pick swap with us, they are ultra confident in getting Wiz.

I know we have Curtin and Wiz closely ranked, just have a feeling it’ll be Curtin IF Duursma is gone.

 

[tommyk72]

How many sleeps until draft night?

 

[TDS7]

Easily improved at the level. I’ve seen vision of him running and bringing down opponents double his size.

He is 1kg heavier than Kozzie Pickett in his draft year. Kozzie averaged 2.7 tackles in the SANFL U18’s. Watson averaged 3.7 tackles a game this season for the Rangers.

Kozzie is now a pressure, tackling, and goal kicking machine at AFL level. Watson is a better talent than Kozzie was at u18 level that’s for sure. Just tells you how good he could become.

Sam Butler and Conor MacDonald both ended up averaging 4.8 tackles a game in the NAB league their top-age seasons. Neither have been tackling machines in the AFL when playing as forwards, and it has been a point of contention with both AFL and VFL coaching staff. It just isn't as easy as "go watch Kozzi picket and do that". Why don't we simply watch some Plugger footage and then kick all our set shots instead of missing 40% of them?

Watson can close the gap as fast as anyone, but when playing as a forward he doesn't stick the tackles you'd expect from a pressure forward. That is because he isn't a pressure forward. He generates scores, off his own boot or by setting up his teammates, and he breaks open games from contests in the forwardline. He doesn't make sure the ball stays in the forwardline, thats just not his role.

 

[TDS7]

How many sleeps until draft night?

For most people?
33

For us?
17

 

[Rushed_Behind]

If the beggars are spooked by go home factor with curtain why aren’t they spooked with mckercher? Wouldn’t you choose the most suitable to your list needs and that’s curtain and duursma and if you’re spooked they’re taking duursma and Watson no?