Opinion Commentary & Media VII

[Rod Stroker]

Four of the pundits in the Age's 2024 season preview had us placed either 13th or 14th.

‘Hungrier than ever’: Our experts preview the AFL season

Brownlow and Rising Star predictions, ins and outs for each club, tips for who will rise and slide on the ladder and more – here’s everything you need to know ahead of the 2024 AFL season.

www.theage.com.au

Of course you may well point out that since 2 of those pundits are employees of the club, why have they got us so low. Bit awks.

(The other two are Kane Cornes and Mathew Stokes)

So the concensus is basically Bont / Naicos / Green for the Brownlow
and either Wardlaw or Colby for the RS

 

[King Corey]

Yet again. Wardlaw won't win the RS.

Not an accumulator and won't get on the park every week. Just enjoy his football without expecting external accolades.

Plus as discussed, north tax etc.

 

[Rod Stroker]

It's interesting that many think the Swans will now finish higher without Buddy

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Yet again. Wardlaw won't win the RS.

Not an accumulator and won't get on the park every week. Just enjoy his football without expecting external accolades.

Plus as discussed, north tax etc.

I think you're wrong about George's chances of winning the RS. It's not an umpires' award, it is voted on by a group of AFL insiders who will watch replays of games and take notice of all the commentators' oohs and aahs whenever George attacks the ball and an opponent. It happens at least four or five times a game.

That's my reason for loading up on him at Sportsbet, anyway.

 

[Shinboner roo]

A coward bump at Melbourne has a completely different meaning

 

[King Corey]

I think you're wrong about George's chances of winning the RS. It's not an umpires' award, it is voted on by a group of AFL insiders who will watch replays of games and take notice of all the commentators' oohs and aahs whenever George attacks the ball and an opponent. It happens at least four or five times a game.

That's my reason for loading up on him at Sportsbet, anyway.

I'd love him too but availability will ultimately stop him regardless imo.

 

[apollo_creed]

It's interesting that many think the Swans will now finish higher without Buddy

missed quite a few games last season and Sydney finished the season well without him from memory.

 

[Sillygit]

Yet again. Wardlaw won't win the RS.

Not an accumulator and won't get on the park every week. Just enjoy his football without expecting external accolades.

Plus as discussed, north tax etc.

 

[AnEmptyChair]

Yet again. Wardlaw won't win the RS.

Not an accumulator and won't get on the park every week. Just enjoy his football without expecting external accolades.

Plus as discussed, north tax etc.

Based on pre season, Sanders should be a clear favourite. Will play and plays a role that the voters will love

 

[King Corey]

Sorry on reflection Wardlaw and McKercher will tie for the RS. Scott will win the Brownlow, Coleman-Jones will win the Coleman (Jones), Hansen Jr will win the Norm Smith and Curtis Taylor will be runner up in the Cleo Bachelor of the Year.

 

[big_e]

I think you're wrong about George's chances of winning the RS. It's not an umpires' award, it is voted on by a group of AFL insiders who will watch replays of games and take notice of all the commentators' oohs and aahs whenever George attacks the ball and an opponent. It happens at least four or five times a game.

That's my reason for loading up on him at Sportsbet, anyway.

I think you give them too much credit, tbh.

 

[Disco Dew]

Based on pre season, Sanders should be a clear favourite. Will play and plays a role that the voters will love

Doggies will win enough games that sanders could be a real chance at winning the brownlow.

 

[Sillygit]

Sorry on reflection Wardlaw and McKercher will tie for the RS. Scott will win the Brownlow, Coleman-Jones will win the Coleman (Jones), Hansen Jr will win the Norm Smith and Curtis Taylor will be runner up in the Cleo Bachelor of the Year.

damnit, i left Taylor out of my multi

 

[giantroo]

 

[Shermanator]

Wish that rule applied for Journos...

 

[Twangler]

What about an AFL player playing VFL?

 

[apollo_creed]

What about an AFL player playing VFL?

well their medical staff is the AFL clubs medical staff so they definitely fall under the 12 day category.

 

[FlyHigh18]

So the concensus is basically Bont / Naicos / Green for the Brownlow
and either Wardlaw or Colby for the RS

 

[Sizzlepack]

Not bad mate, agree with quite a bit but disagree with the below:

I'm not an overly optimistic fan or think we'll improve as much as some do in 2024 but finishing 3-20 again (matching last seasons total) is unlikely. For starters a good indicator of the improvement last season was the teams percentage in 2023 vs 2022. The side was a lot more competitive and lost quite a few games from winnable positions in the middle of the season. I think the club will win at least 5 games and (somewhere in the 5-7 range) and I don't think that's said with any bias.

The loss of Ziebell, Goldstein and McKay is an interesting one. Ziebell was barely best 22 and probably would've been dropped it not a senior player. His stats were ok but his performances (defensive capacity, disposal) were largely underwhelming. McKay had a terrible 2023 - yes, he's a good player but if you're looking at what the club loses from 2023 - him leaving has no negative impact. Goldstein is the big one - Xerri is ok but Goldstein was still an important player and Xerri has yet to show himself as an AFL quality ruckman.

And not sure if Lazarro will be a breakout player. I'm not necessarily negative on him but his future at AFL level (if he has one) will be as a serviceable performer.

Cheers mate, appreciate the read and the thoughtful reply.

Perhaps I misunderstand, but I didn't make a prediction about how many wins North will get this year. The thing up the top was just the 2023 record. For the record, I think you'll get 5-7 wins, but I didn't put that because imo predicting wins is a mug's game.

Fair points on the others. Just wanted to make the case that, even if they were underwhelming (which I alluded to by saying they weren't creating many wins), the outgoing players played a lot. So someone will need to replace them.

 

[apollo_creed]

Cheers mate, appreciate the read and the thoughtful reply.

Perhaps I misunderstand, but I didn't make a prediction about how many wins North will get this year. The thing up the top was just the 2023 record. For the record, I think you'll get 5-7 wins, but I didn't put that because imo predicting wins is a mug's game.

Fair points on the others. Just wanted to make the case that, even if they were underwhelming (which I alluded to by saying they weren't creating many wins), the outgoing players played a lot. So someone will need to replace them.

Sorry mate my bad. My reading comprehension just cost me 5 unnecessary minutes of my time (at work though so who cares).

Predicting wins is a mugs game and it's also very dependent on various factors 1. winning close games it's sometimes a skill and sometimes it's luck (bounce of the ball, umpiring decision, etc) 2. injuries, suspensions - more best 22 players out the harder to meet expectation 3. opposition performance, injury status, kicking for goal etc - you can get a certain opposition on a good day, or bad day and while you make your own luck/make opposition look bad there are factors which aren't anything to do with you and relate to playing a side at the right time.

The biggest concerns for me are the backline (terrible last season, far too easy to score against), replacing Goldstein and our inability to apply modern football forward pressure.

 

[Psi-Roos]

Sorry on reflection Wardlaw and McKercher will tie for the RS. Scott will win the Brownlow, Coleman-Jones will win the Coleman (Jones), Hansen Jr will win the Norm Smith and Curtis Taylor will be runner up in the Cleo Bachelor of the Year.

Dissapointing for young Curtis there. Needs to up his follower count to really go for the win.

 

[Sizzlepack]

Saw your post on Reddit, mate. Really good write up. It's clear you actually look at the way teams set up and the goals they set out to achieve relative to where they're at in their development. And you've not only noticed that we haven't had an ordinary rebuild, but found the words to describe what's really happened at the club over the last four years, something which a ton of pundits have somehow glossed over. Agree that stability will be our tonic. Nice work

Thanks mate, very kind. Apologies for spamming multiple fora!

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Enjoyed the read Sizzlepack.

I need time to process the discovery that for some of you BF is only one of the arenas in which you chat about football. How do you find time for anything else?

 

[Samsquanch]

What about an AFL player playing VFL?

Since when did the AFL actually think of anything but the most obvious?

 

[William Caresser]

Who is possibly better than Barry Cable to come in at 2?

Not many.