List Mgmt. 2024 Draft - Post Trade Period Edition

Pick 1

  • Finn O'Sullivan

  • Sam Lalor

  • Jagga Smith


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Pick 11 was an example. Hopefully the bid for Kako comes after our pick 11 and we'd be using 18 for the deal.

The goal would be turning something like 6, 11, 18 into pick 2 and 2 x 2025 R1(possibly 2 top 10 picks).
Fair enough, although it doesn't matter where a bid is placed for Kako, what it comes down to is a supply/demand scenario.

Even if a bid comes in at 5 then Essendon will want to get back into the 1st round from that point, their problem is that no team will want to trade their own 1st round picks until later in the draft for one of the Dons futures.

As richoatthedisco correctly pointed out, GWS would be the first most likely candidate at 15 or 16 although that's line ball and they might not want to deal until pick 21.

There's only 4 teams holding picks in the range that will tempt a trade out for a Dons F1

GWS: 15,16,21 (covered above)
Dogs: 17 (it's their only pick and highly unlikely to trade out)
Swans: 19, 22 (reckon they'd be trying to bundle and trade up, not move a pick out)
Tigers: 18, 20, 23, 24 ( the only club that could offer a pick before GWS's 21)

Of course if the Don's offered both of their F1's then that would change the landscape.

As from next year clubs will be allowed to trade 2 years of future picks and pick purchasing will likely happen too. This might lead to more teams trading out of next year knowing that they can top up with other means.

Obviously all conjecture, with lots of permutations and combinations involved.
 

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i'll be fine if we're stuck with 6&10/11 because i'm very happy with what's more than likely there, but north's future first has gotta be at least top 4 which definitely has me interested if that's what eventually is decided on. there is a chance it backfires but would be neat having picks 1,2,1,2-4 playing together in a couple of years each other


unless the idea is to use norths f1 (or ours if north somehow manage to finish last, wouldn't put it past them) to trade for cadman since he'll be a contracted player which is what we've got to keep in mind when you consider a trade with north for 2&f1, plus in that scenario it doesn't matter if the pick falls outside of top 4, we still win in that case

it's essentially

keep 6&11

6 - smillie/langford/?????
11 - travaglia/allan/hotton/lindsay/armstrong maybe a top 10 big slider

trade for 2&f1

2 - get to pick our top 2 targets for the year (lalor/fos gang)
f1 - gets used in the trade for cadman
OR
f1 - is a top 2-4 pick and we end up with 4 top end talents and trade our 2026 future for cadman

at 11, the best fwd available is possibly armstrong if he even lasts that long, or we could instead potentially turn that pick into cadman if that's the clubs plan. cadman was pick 1 from 2022, so the best part is we get to skip the first 2 years of developing a key fwd as well


and i say this all as the og smillie&hotton(6&11) fan club member, maybe there's a chance we get smillie at pick 10 and hotton at 18..... can only pray 🙏
 
i'll be fine if we're stuck with 6&10/11 because i'm very happy with what's more than likely there, but north's future first has gotta be at least top 4 which definitely has me interested if that's what eventually is decided on. there is a chance it backfires but would be neat having picks 1,2,1,2-4 playing together in a couple of years each other


unless the idea is to use norths f1 (or ours if north somehow manage to finish last, wouldn't put it past them) to trade for cadman since he'll be a contracted player which is what we've got to keep in mind when you consider a trade with north for 2&f1, plus in that scenario it doesn't matter if the pick falls outside of top 4, we still win in that case

it's essentially

keep 6&11

6 - smillie/langford/?????
11 - travaglia/allan/hotton/lindsay/armstrong maybe a top 10 big slider

trade for 2&f1

2 - get to pick our top 2 targets for the year (lalor/fos gang)
f1 - gets used in the trade for cadman
OR
f1 - is a top 2-4 pick and we end up with 4 top end talents and trade our 2026 future for cadman

at 11, the best fwd available is possibly armstrong if he even lasts that long, or we could instead potentially turn that pick into cadman if that's the clubs plan. cadman was pick 1 from 2022, so the best part is we get to skip the first 2 years of developing a key fwd as well


and i say this all as the og smillie&hotton(6&11) fan club member, maybe there's a chance we get smillie at pick 10 and hotton at 18..... can only pray 🙏
the wolf of wall street idgaf GIF
 
I think I'm leaning towards keeping 6 and offering North 10 and something else for 2.

Fos & Lalor then a Smillie, Draper, Jagga, Langford at 6. Potentially Allen at 11.

Considering the only tall we are really linked to at this stage is touted as a late first early second pick, and the rumoured links to Cadman makes me think we are looking for mids exclusively early on.

Can on trade our last pick for a future first potentially our second last too depending on how draft night ends up.

Walking away with 4 mids, 1 kpf and a future first or 2, would be a great haul.





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The only reason North are trading 2 is if they are very confident they’ll get a player they love regardless (eg. Tauru, Smillie. Reid). If they drop to 10 they’d be doubtful of getting one of their favorites so wouldn’t do it.


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imagine the kids that are projected to go pick 2 when they realise they are no chance of going to lolnorf anymore and are a good chance of going to Richmond

nobody wants to play for norf
 

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The later first round / second round (18,20,23,24) is where we would consider that Essendon deal.
We may consider that deal but not sure Essendon do, which is an issue many seem to overlook when suggesting trades with our late R1 picks.

Just because clubs were falling over themselves to get the Suns pick 13, doesn't mean they'll do the same for picks 18+, that probably become 22+ on draft night after bidding.

Wouldn't hurt for people to keep that in mond when suggesting pick swaps as we're not getting top value for picks outside the top 20.
 
Fair enough, although it doesn't matter where a bid is placed for Kako, what it comes down to is a supply/demand scenario.

Even if a bid comes in at 5 then Essendon will want to get back into the 1st round from that point, their problem is that no team will want to trade their own 1st round picks until later in the draft for one of the Dons futures.

As richoatthedisco correctly pointed out, GWS would be the first most likely candidate at 15 or 16 although that's line ball and they might not want to deal until pick 21.

There's only 4 teams holding picks in the range that will tempt a trade out for a Dons F1

GWS: 15,16,21 (covered above)
Dogs: 17 (it's their only pick and highly unlikely to trade out)
Swans: 19, 22 (reckon they'd be trying to bundle and trade up, not move a pick out)
Tigers: 18, 20, 23, 24 ( the only club that could offer a pick before GWS's 21)

Of course if the Don's offered both of their F1's then that would change the landscape.

As from next year clubs will be allowed to trade 2 years of future picks and pick purchasing will likely happen too. This might lead to more teams trading out of next year knowing that they can top up with other means.

Obviously all conjecture, with lots of permutations and combinations involved.
As deep as this draft is a club like Essendon whose 2 × R1 picks next year could both be top 10 will make a deal where they trade 1 of them for a pick in the 22-28 range where our late R1 picks end up after bidding.

Turning 6 10 & 11 this year in to 2 this year and 2 × R1 next year may not be ideal for everyone given how sold they are on this year's draft. Hell, I'm not even completely sold on my own suggestion, but as do think it could be something that Blair contemplates and it may not even be the Essendon picks, it could be any club that was trying to get into or up the order, in this draft that makes a play.

My point is that posters are certain that we'll be trading our late R1 picks for quality future R1 picks but I don't see it being the case.

To put it simply if the roles were reversed would not a single poster would be happy if Blair gave up a possible top 10 pick in 2025 for a mid 20s pick this year, yet the opinion seems to be that clubs will do it in trades with us.
 
The only reason North are trading 2 is if they are very confident they’ll get a player they love regardless (eg. Tauru, Smillie. Reid). If they drop to 10 they’d be doubtful of getting one of their favorites so wouldn’t do it.


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That's their problem. 2 isn't the be all end all for us. If they want the extra pick then they need to work with what's available, not with what they want.


We can get extra first rounders next year with our last 2 picks. So I'm not really interested in their future first at this stage.

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We may consider that deal but not sure Essendon do, which is an issue many seem to overlook when suggesting trades with our late R1 picks.

Just because clubs were falling over themselves to get the Suns pick 13, doesn't mean they'll do the same for picks 18+, that probably become 22+ on draft night after bidding.

Wouldn't hurt for people to keep that in mond when suggesting pick swaps as we're not getting top value for picks outside the top 20.
Pick 18 (21) is on the cusp of the top 2 tiers of players.
Top Tier 1-7 Lalor, FOS, Jagga, Draper, Langford, Ashcroft, Smillie
Second Tier 8-18 Reid, Lombard, Lindsay, Travaglia, Armstrong, Trainor, Kako, Berry, Hotton, Allan, Tauru

A group of players could land into the second tier based on how clubs rate them.
Hynes, Dobson, Shannahan, Dattoli, Jack Whitlock

Therefore picks 18/20/23 would have appeal for clubs after a particular player. Even pick 24 would have a lot of interest as is the first pick in night 2 of the draft.
 
We may consider that deal but not sure Essendon do, which is an issue many seem to overlook when suggesting trades with our late R1 picks.

Just because clubs were falling over themselves to get the Suns pick 13, doesn't mean they'll do the same for picks 18+, that probably become 22+ on draft night after bidding.

Wouldn't hurt for people to keep that in mond when suggesting pick swaps as we're not getting top value for picks outside the top 20.

Also wouldn't hurt for people to remember we are the house. It is like when you want foreign currency at the airport. They are the house, so they set the exchange rate. Some imbecile like me always wants foreign currency.
 
I think I'm leaning towards keeping 6 and offering North 10 and something else for 2.

Fos & Lalor then a Smillie, Draper, Jagga, Langford at 6. Potentially Allen at 11.

Considering the only tall we are really linked to at this stage is touted as a late first early second pick, and the rumoured links to Cadman makes me think we are looking for mids exclusively early on.

Can on trade our last pick for a future first potentially our second last too depending on how draft night ends up.

Walking away with 4 mids, 1 kpf and a future first or 2, would be a great haul.





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Too many mids. 2 mids, 1 small forward, 2 outside runners , 1 KPF and 1 quality HB distributor.

If we have pick 2 & nth F1 and lose
6+11

1. Place bid on Ashcroft.

2. Jagga
3. Lalor

10. Place bid on Marshall,
Else one of Reid / Berry

18. One of Berry/Travaglia/Lindsay or Hannaford

23. Faull or if still available Trainor.

24.
 

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List Mgmt. 2024 Draft - Post Trade Period Edition

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