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You matched bettors have yourselves to blame for all these shit tactics we have to put up with now from books

Seems the Lions were good after all

Will when I tell them to pay my bet on Neale. Should be a dead heat payout but they may just leave the Zorko payout as is not sure

Rayner effort last week sort of screwed his price this week, happens each year with a standout prelim and usually hard to back it up and don't get the price aswell

Feels like they should have found the school link if he was known to police? Maybe they knew about that but the murders were so brutal he was just dismissed as never being capable of doing it plus the alibi he seems to have had which was rock solid.

First goal too, plenty of good prices near kick off

Brisbane should be well prepared having just played a similar match at the same ground last week. Swans not played there for months, start games slow while Brisbane have won 22 first quarters. 1st quarter Lions seems good

Thanks Lachie

Might be some overrating Neale too. They got plenty of heat off last years result, wouldn't be surprised if umps treat harsher.

Yes and they don't list Heeney. Wouldn't be doing it with books with Heeney in market

Any idea if they are still down

You are making up shit here. Plenty of models have Daicos pipping Cripps. If shop around I think both Cripps and Daicos offer value at their prices available. Just no reason for anyone to be overbet on betfair for example, this doesn't happen

250 includes the stake there which is a complete waste of time

Not updated but this was from before last year.

You realise if someone polls so far ahead of their handicap then their team mates then poll less most times

If he gets to 20 then it means others poll less though. He would win it most likely. Don't think Neale deserves the love he has got this year overall but still have him winning this handicap with some room to move.

140 is getting on high side but Disposal Groups are 130ish and 8 players in those so pretty similar. Doubt you will get other books doing better, not sure many other books offer the team handicap either

There are more public models around now from people who don't bet. Wheelo, MOS, ChewtheStat There is little to gain sharing brownlow counts though if you plan to bet on it though given markets continue to open up. Would think most discussion is happening away from this thread from most in here

We still looking at team sheets. He was named fwd last week on the original team. They have zero general defenders

Swans were shorter in 2017 vs Cats, Cats belted them too

Its people betting into the markets being mentioned on here which makes them change the prices Can say I'm wrong if they put up the same random list of names NYRB has on his 3 vote tables

wow

Neale, Luggage, Rayner and Daniher all better there.

If his average winning odds are 5.06 then his losing odds are likely even higher. Quite easy to win what he did when only hitting 24% of his bets when prices are this

Something wrong if Caldwell can't make your table though. 3rd best on for me

Might be ready for the 2028 brownlow

This is so ****ing dumb, there's 4 umpires giving votes. Neale won the brownlow because he was stand out in a low disposal team who won a stack of games, not because some ump wanted him to win it

Wheelo ratings has Gawn 8 more than him. Aware he is a ruck but for once their midfield has sucked this season, he's had a far more influential role. Zorko is very volatile so that price is not bad

It changes every year, will know when it happens. Would be shocked if they do not.

There are plenty of ways to go about it. Yours seemed quite in depth so thought it was algo based. Modelling is fine but pure stats will never cut it, the best brownlow modellers use a combo of stats but also public voting systems to incorporate the human element you need also. The main...