AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[stusubz]

I feel there’s some decent value in the teams this year - all these guys are 1-3 votes within each other on my count.

Serong / Brayshaw
Trelor / Bont
Yeo / Waterman
Balta / Richmond

I’ve had a play on all of them, got Brayshaw $16, Trelor $12, Waterman $12, Balta $41 all have come in a little, still think some value!

Anyone posting there counts soon?

I totally agree with you,

I would add:
Gawn/petracca
heeney/gulden
most have taranto and rioli close at $4 each is value. If you can nail some roughies (or combine them with favorites) there is definatley value this year.

 

[Spooka]

I totally agree with you,

I would add:
Gawn/petracca
heeney/gulden
most have taranto and rioli close at $4 each is value. If you can nail some roughies (or combine them with favorites) there is definatley value this year.

I sorta wanna add in Pendles as a roughie without Nick. He’s $15, crisp only polled 2 votes last year, and pendles always does ok on Brownlow night, his had some games where could steal a couple, would think maybe 2/3 in his 400th with the hype surrounding it.

 

[stusubz]

Fair call Spooka, I would also say Hewett $6 for Carlton (Fav out, no Cripps and no Walsh) should be slightly infront of curnow, McKay and de Koning.
These will all be interesting to watch on the night, I’m thinking of rotating a few of these roughies through some favourites the odds look very good, I think you only need 1 or 2 tickets to get up and it will be a great night.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Fair call Spooka, I would also say Hewett $6 for Carlton (Fav out, no Cripps and no Walsh) should be slightly infront of curnow, McKay and de Koning.
These will all be interesting to watch on the night, I’m thinking of rotating a few of these roughies through some favourites the odds look very good, I think you only need 1 or 2 tickets to get up and it will be a great night.

i feel hewitt epitomises a guy who just doesn't catch the umps eye at all but

 

[NYRB]

Alright let me know your thoughts on this conspiracy

Been looking through possible umpire biases and the Neale one is intriguing.

Some of you might remember round 23, 2022 when Neale polled that random 1 vote in the final round to get him to a clear 2nd and almost catch Cripps.

That game was won in the first qtr and well and truly over by half time. Fritsch and Pickett miss out as leading goalscorers and even McCluggage was Brisbane’s best with 24 touches and 2 goals.
The umpires in that game were Stevic, Hosking and Andrew Stephens. Andrew Stephens seems to be the one. Grew up playing and umpiring in Brisbane. Went to Brisbane Grammar.

When he screwed the Saints in 2016 there was that controversy of favouritism:

I thought it was interesting that instead of claiming all umpires don’t have favourites, they just said he definitely wasn’t a Hawks supporter. But it makes sense that most umps would have a fave team. And from that you’d have to assume that if there was a player in the mix for winning a brownlow there will be a slight tendency to give them votes whenever they can, and at the very least not miss them when they’ve played half decent.


Got to officiate in 6 Brisbane games last year (gets more Brisbane home games than other umps due to living there I guess?):

Round 2 Brisbane v Melb
Neale definitely didn't deserve any votes but got 2. Ashcroft got the 3 as he should. Zorko so stiff got subbed when the lights went off but was bog at the time. Oliver 37 and a goal in a 10pt loss coming home strong. Even Dunkley was better than Neale throughout.

Round 4 Brisbane v Coll
Denied Daicos any votes when he had 38 touches and 2 goals. Gave Neale a vote for 22 touches no goals when Rayner had 17 and 4 goals?? other inside mids better than neale here

Round 7 Brisbane v Freo
Gives Neale the 2 here but probably fair.

Round 10 Brisbane v GC
Neale 3 but did win the medal so deserved.

Round 14 Brisbane v Sydney
Another Brisbane game for him, another Neale 3. Bailey deserved the 3 votes. Gulden deserved 2 but they went Parker instead.

Round 16 Brisbane v Richmond
Neale 3 votes. Probs fair.


Assuming this bias continues, looking at this year, he’s umpired another 6:

Round 0 Brisbane v Carlton
Neale could get votes in the end now that he's umpiring. Had 25 touches most for brisbane in the 1 point loss.

Round 3 Brisbane v Collingwood
20 point loss for Brisbane but Neale 35 1 goal could be enough to get 2 or 3 now

Round 10 Brisbane v Richmond
Huge win, the toss up between Zorko Neale Loman Daniher Cameron will probably go to Neale.

Round 16 Brisbane v Melbourne
Damn big game for him to be umpiring. Bris win by 5. Looked Like Dunkley and McCluggae were better than Neale, and Viney should be in the mix. Neale could pull surprise votes here out the wazoo.

Round 19 Brisbane v Sydney
Surely gets fired if gives Neale votes here. 18 touches 6 clearance surely not…

Round 22 Brisbane v GWS
Doubt he gets any here was held by Bedford. Interestingly it was Stephens that allowed Neale to play on to advantage when play had stopped in the 50 for him to stroll in and kick his goal.

I did a bit of a look-in for umpire Andrew Stephens. He might have a tinge of bias when allocating the votes. No doubt about that. Could he want to deny one of the favourites a medal by denying them votes? Maybe. Denying Naicos votes last year in that game, and giving Neale votes, probably ended up deciding the medal- thats potentially a 2 to 3 vote swing right there. Stephens involved home games involving Neale, has resulted him polling in 11 of his last 12 games. Thats a strong correlation.


Interesting to note in Neales first 3 years at Brisbane, Stephens only umpired a total of 3 home games at the GABBA involving Neale. In last 2 years, he has umpired 13 home GABBA games of his, which doesnt sound right for me. The fact that he got a further 6 games in 2024 at the GABBA involving Brisbane makes a bit of a mockery of the Brownlow. I dont think a home state umpire should have more than half of a clubs homes games in their home state. AFL clearly trust him, as he has done his apprenticeship.

Some stats I compiled. Votes allocated by Stephens by year for Neale GABBA games:




Stephens umpired games with Neale has seen a higher average in 2022-23, than non-Andrew Stephens umpired games in that same period at the GABBA.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Right now is the best time on tab you'll get a price for yeo 1.75, heen 1.50, martin without zerrett 1.35 to throw in multis with nuke and co

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Could he want to deny one of the favourites a medal by denying them votes? Maybe. Denying Naicos votes last year in that game, and giving Neale votes, probably ended up deciding the medal- thats potentially a 2 to 3 vote swing right there.

Does make you wonder if it could go further. He umpired the Carlton St Kilda game which was the day after Neale likely gets his 3 against Essendon. Both the incorrect decisions on Cripps - one for throwing it when he'd handballed it and then the contentious in-the-back decision were made by Andrew Stephens.

 

[NYRB]

Does make you wonder if it could go further. He umpired the Carlton St Kilda game which was the day after Neale likely gets his 3 against Essendon. Both the incorrect decisions on Cripps - one for throwing it when he'd handballed it and then the contentious in-the-back decision were made by Andrew Stephens.

I reckon he may be smarter than what we think.

Looking at his Linkedin profile he is an Engineer. (Educated in QLD mind you) Dont think he is dumb with numbers. He knows what he was doing last year. Make no mistake about that.

It wouldnt surprise me if he is a punter in disguise.

 

[Billionaire Panda]

 

[NYRB]

He would know the Brisbane Lions squad better than most umps. I doubt he would have time to focus on other players from other teams. A serious question would be if he could name every Freo player, Richmond player.....

Interesting to see from his schedule of games this season he gets to manage more of the marquee games and less of the weaker teams. Talking about the contenders for Charlie- Carlton (Cripps), Collingwood (N Daicos), Essendon (Merrett) and Brisbane (Neale). If you include Sydney , he gets the biggest teams in 2024.




His full schedule here:

Round 0 Brisbane v Carlton
Round 1 Collingwood v Sydney
Round 2 Adelaide v Geelong
Round 3 Brisbane v Collingwood
Round 4 Port Adelaide v Essendon
Round 5 Gold Coast v Hawthorn
Round 6 St.Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Round 7 Essendon v Collingwood
Round 8 Carlton v Collingwood
Round 9 Geelong v Port Adelaide
Round 10 Brisbane v Richmond
Round 11 Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Round 12 Gold Coast v Essendon
Round 13 Collingwood v Melbourne
Round 15 Carlton v Geelong
Round 16 Brisbane v Melbourne
Round 17 GWS V Carlton
Round 18 Melbourne V Essendon
Round 19 Brisbane v Sydney
Round 20 Adelaide v Hawthorn
Round 21 Essendon v Fremantle
Round 22 Brisbane v GWS
Round 23 Essendon v Sydney
Round 24 Carlton v St.Kilda

Round 0, 3, 10, 16, 19, 22 - Neale is up for votes if Stephens is there. Neale looks like he simply has to touch the ball to get votes from him.


Round 7, 8 and 13 will be impossible to flirt with votes. There are medals and clear stand outs there.

Round 15, 16, 17 and 19 the control of the Brownlow count will be under Stephens control........4 games in the space of 5 rounds. He will know better than anyone where the count will be.

With the schedule he has been given , it can be easily to swing votes in a way that favours one of the main contenders. Id imagine a good thing for Daicos backers is all of his games are out of the way early in the season with this particular ump. The last 3 games Stephens has with the Pies are generally your marquee games.(The Rd 7, Rd 8 and Rd 13 games) I do have N Daicos penciled for votes in Rd 3 but its no shoe-in given what happened last year. Although Naicos not polling here isnt the end of the world for his backers as Stephens controls the count in that middle phase of the season and probably most importantly he has the last game of the contenders on that Sunday in Rd 24.

Does make you wonder if it could go further. He umpired the Carlton St Kilda game which was the day after Neale likely gets his 3 against Essendon. Both the incorrect decisions on Cripps - one for throwing it when he'd handballed it and then the contentious in-the-back decision were made by Andrew Stephens.

Its a very good point you make. The question for me is how much love for Lachie Neale does this ump have for him or the better question is, how much does the ump not want Cripps to win? Cripps in 2020-23 only polled in 2 matches from 9 games with Stephens. And if you stretch it back to 2019 to 2023, he has awarded Cripps votes in 2 matches from 10 games. (20% strike rate in terms of polling votes with him in 5 seasons)

2023
Rd 24 v GWS. DNP
Rd 12 v Dees. 2 votes
Rd 9 v WB. 0 votes.

2022
Rd 18 v Geel . 0 votes
Rd 8 v Adel. 3 votes
Rd 4 v GC. 0 votes (went off injured early)

2021
Rd 23 v GWS. 0 votes
Rd 2 v Collingwood. 0 votes

2020
Rd 6 v WB. 0 votes
Rd 2 v Melbourne. 0 votes

 

[sohohoho]

This is so ****ing dumb, there's 4 umpires giving votes.

Neale won the brownlow because he was stand out in a low disposal team who won a stack of games, not because some ump wanted him to win it

 

[Billionaire Panda]

This is so ****ing dumb, there's 4 umpires giving votes.

Neale won the brownlow because he was stand out in a low disposal team who won a stack of games, not because some ump wanted him to win it

Andy is that you?

 

[NYRB]

This is so ****ing dumb, there's 4 umpires giving votes.

I know there are 4 umpires giving votes. Ive read a fair bit about the vote allocation process in the past. But he has an influence in those meetings. He seems like a pretty smart and intelligent man? UQ educated, Brisbane Grammar, Im assuming its some posh private school up there . Think numbers would be his thing with his engineering background. And after one of previous umpires got caught fixing a couple of years ago, nothing is off limits. It doesnt take much for a bit of insider information to get passed around. Where there is money involved especially involving past events- nothing can ever be considered clean.

Neale won the brownlow because he was stand out in a low disposal team who won a stack of games, not because some ump wanted him to win it

I have Neale not polling at least a vote in 5 of those 6 GABBA games. I didnt factor into account the umpire appointments. Quite happy to stick with original count and maybe keep one on the side specifically for him in those games there. The dude has a history looking back even at 2022 for some unusual vote allocations.

 

[Johanpetro]

What did people give for the Bulldogs V Eagles match in round 3? Was just going through my votes again and haven’t got Bont polling. Noticed a few of the popular counts gave him 2 but also got 0 coaches votes that game.

 

[stusubz]

It is just a fact over the years, if you are tossing up between who to give votes to after watching or analysing a game and either Cripps or Neale are in the equation, you have to upgrade them, the umps just love em, and you will see again this year, they both will be fighting it out for "charlie" come round 23-24. They always get surprise votes you don't see coming.

 

[Sausage Legs]

What did people give for the Bulldogs V Eagles match in round 3? Was just going through my votes again and haven’t got Bont polling. Noticed a few of the popular counts gave him 2 but also got 0 coaches votes that game.

Remember that game, bont was quiet af but kicked some late junk goals.
Went treloar English bont (just cos bont, didn't deserve) then williams next best. Had 6 touches to half time and was a 73 point win.

 

[ronpingwins]

What did people give for the Bulldogs V Eagles match in round 3? Was just going through my votes again and haven’t got Bont polling. Noticed a few of the popular counts gave him 2 but also got 0 coaches votes that game.

Treloar 3. Naughton was in everything, he and English the 2 and 1. Bont really shouldn’t be polling

 

[stusubz]

3 Votes A. Treolar, then throw a blanket over Bont, Vandermeer, Naughton, and end even English could be a chance,
but even though Bont only had 16 touches, 11 of them were contested, and booted 3. Something tells me Bont either gets 2 or 1 this game. The only threat for West Coast is Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

, maybe 1 vote if he's lucky in a 10+ goal thumping.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Surprised no one really hitting the to poll votes markers. Bont 25+, crippa 30+, Walsh 15+, serong 25+ and butters 20+ gets ya 17.39 for ya buck.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Stephens: Statistical analysis, the minimum number of votes to give, for Lach to win the medal - but the maximum number we can give, before the Germans get suspicious

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Surprised no one really hitting the to poll votes markers. Bont 25+, crippa 30+, Walsh 15+, serong 25+ and butters 20+ gets ya 17.39 for ya buck.

Had a fair crack at these markets, reckon some good value around

 

[NYRB]

What did people give for the Bulldogs V Eagles match in round 3? Was just going through my votes again and haven’t got Bont polling. Noticed a few of the popular counts gave him 2 but also got 0 coaches votes that game.

Went 3) English 2) Treloar 1) Bont for Rd 3 WB V WCE on initial inspection.

Lost my odds spreadsheet as I saved it under the wrong file name. Will look to review it again in my spare time, which would be a 2nd time I would watch it. Have vague memories if you ask me right now.

 

[BOOYAH1987]

Surprised no one really hitting the to poll votes markers. Bont 25+, crippa 30+, Walsh 15+, serong 25+ and butters 20+ gets ya 17.39 for ya buck.

Which betting app?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Which betting app?

Tab.

 

[NYRB]

I gave Cripps the 3 votes in Round 0. Brisbane were the better team again for most of that game but Carlton were the better team in the 2nd half.

This was my spreadsheet for that game as I did a Live Tracker for that one. My margins was around 99.75% for that, so if you can get a slightly reduced odds for the player you like Id say back him. Curnows at 5s , McKay at arounds double digits might be the play if one can get that? (for the 3 Vote Markets)

View attachment 2092406

At half-time in that game, 7 of the top 8 players were from Brisbane from memory.

A quirky stat is Cripps has polled in 64 AFL Games in his career. Of those games, 3 of them he had 23 disposals or less. (1 was in a COVID year). Looking at disposals alone would be misleading as the top disposal gettor on the ground had 27 disposals. At the moment, Ill back him to add to that tally of games where he will poll, and had 23 or less disposals.

I might have to put it on review?

I gave Cripps the 3 votes in Round 0. Brisbane were the better team again for most of that game but Carlton were the better team in the 2nd half.

This was my spreadsheet for that game as I did a Live Tracker for that one. My margins was around 99.75% for that, so if you can get a slightly reduced odds for the player you like Id say back him. Curnows at 5s , McKay at arounds double digits might be the play if one can get that? (for the 3 Vote Markets)

View attachment 2092406

At half-time in that game, 7 of the top 8 players were from Brisbane from memory.

A quirky stat is Cripps has polled in 64 AFL Games in his career. Of those games, 3 of them he had 23 disposals or less. (1 was in a COVID year). Looking at disposals alone would be misleading as the top disposal gettor on the ground had 27 disposals. At the moment, Ill back him to add to that tally of games where he will poll, and had 23 or less disposals.

I might have to put it on review?

I went back and did a 2nd review for that Round 0 . After the light of the umpire and wanting to review it for my own sake, Im quite happy to change that 3,2,1. I got influenced by James Brayshaws commentary on watching that on first time. He seemed to talk Cripps up a bit too much. 2 clearances deep into the 3rd quarter, and despite kicking a goal in the last quarter, he was off in that 4th quarter for around 6 and a half minutes when the game was on the line.

My memory was vague, when rewinding back the clock 5 months ago but I had in the back of my mind that McKay kicked 4 with Curnow. Curnow kicked 4 goals, McKay 3 goals. Lachie Neale was Brisbanes best player throughout the game. Zorko best before half time of all players. Zorko was largely ineffective after quarter time with heaps of clangers and bad disposal use in 2nd half

My final weighted tally:



Will stick with my weighted odds for now but Cripps shouldnt be $1.90-$2.00 for best on ground as originally watching first time. And id be all over Neale if he was around $20 for the 3 Vote Markets if that was available given the ump polling history and the game he had. His midfield game was an overall better game than Cripps.

Curnows 3 goals in the premiership quarter , when the game mattered was what stood out.

In my 2nd review I went 3) Curnow 2) Lachie Neale 1) Harry McKay.

1st review went 3) Cripps 2) Curnow 1) McKay

Weighted Review went 3) Cripps 2) Curnow 1) Neale using a 50:50 weighting system. I dont think in a game where Brisbane were leading for the best part of 2.5 to 3 quarters (75% of the game), it can be a Carlton clean sweep as I originally had.

Anyway its clear from my tallies that there are 4 players in contention for the best on ground.