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About 20 votes short of their over under line, you’ll love that market, and all the guys with huge handicaps on their teams market

Over the last couple of years the market has always over-valued his potential future performances. All predictors could be telling you he’s a few votes behind or there’s uncertainty with the Pie’s form or his injury status, and he’ll still stay a low price. Also he’s the most hyped player we’ve...

Daicos is always overbet. Good chance of winning it but at no point would you ever get a value price.

My Port analysis largely centres around Jason Horne-Francis. I never thought I’d be writing this because after last year I really expected JHF to be well found and under the odds all season. Perhaps because of his injury after round 1 and then Rozee Butters early season dominance he got lost a...

Go to page 13 onward of this forum. Most are definitely on Cripps, worthy fave.

Maybe NYRB would have the full thing. For some of the main guys: Cripps R0 bris r1 tigers 3 r3 NM 2 r4 freo r5 crows r6 gws 3 r7 geelong 2 r8 pies r9 dees 2 r11 GC 3 r12 Port 3 r13 Essendon r15 Geelong 3 r16 Tigers 3 r17 GWS 1 r18 Dogs 1 r19 NM 1 r21...

The case for Tom Green Tom Green seems to be a hell of a smokey for this year’s brownlow at the price that he is (~80:1 at time of writing). His line on SB is 21.5 and I feel that’s a lot closer to his minimum than his expected mark. I initially had him around 31 votes. Thought that must have...

Okay going to post about my GWS and Port counts, Spooka you'll like these, know you were keen posting about them

Agreed, at the very least could’ve copied the b365 one

Will have to do a write up explaining them. Will post early Monday morning, heading into the mountains for a few nights

Been staring at these handicaps for 3 days straight. My thoughts on some of them so far: Brisbane Neale really should be getting this on ratings. They handicapped it to around 26 votes which is seemingly a real minimum for Neale on most predictors. His line is 27.5. He’d probably need 27 to...

Seen a few counts with Tigers below 20 and Eagles around 28. If that were the case then it's not bad if those guys overpoll a fraction, and $6-7 wouldn't be the worst odds for it

Their over/under line on Rich and WCE is 22.5 and 30.5 (53) Their over/under line on Gulden and Serong is 22.5 and 23.5 (46) For Heeney and Warner it's 26.5 and 19.5 (46) Are you thinking Rich and WCE are much lower?

Kosi fans be eating this up

Was very bad in the first half and very good in the second half

If it actually does come out then, we've found our Sportsbet mole

Merrett was nice at $3+. Is $2.25 for 25+. $2.40 for the handicap. Might need 25-26 to take the handicap with Martin possibly reaching 14 and Durham exuding big poller energy. Just a fair price now I reckon.

Anyone have Clayton Oliver overpolling by a vote or 2? Seemingly right in the mix in round 1 and another chance for 3 in round 8. Can't be ruled out for 1 in round 3 and my HT notes on round 22 v Giants read "Oliver actually looking reasonably good for once". +10.5 handicap @$7

Thought it was 10 but yeah they gave him a random 3 in that 48pt loss in Dusty's 300th. Still if it is a higher tigers count then all these 0.5 handicaps won't mean much at all. If its a low count like most people expect then it comes down to the 2 wins.

How many votes do people have for Richmond? Betfair's seems to be 17.5 whereas AFL's is at 30. Line on Sportsbet is 22.5. Seems key to their handicap.

Yeah damn seems like they're overcompensating this year on the scratch guys. Not that anyone really cares but here was 2021 handicaps when 6 of the 18 guys won off scratch. Look at those prices compared to this year. I think if we get a high count like 2021 it will really help a lot of...

What’s the lowest price to take on Neale? Betfairs predictor would have McCluggage winning it by 2 votes. Seems like a minimum I agree but there’s a definite pathway to him getting beaten. I’m thinking $1.65.

You happen to have last years starting price handicaps and what they ended up at time of count? Seems like in the next few days Neale Merret Serong Jezza Heeney Daicos and Cripps are gonna get to prices where it would be better to just take them at their over/under mark. From memory only guys...

I see Viney as the danger but it would all come down to round 16

Yeah fair enough, 15 could indeed take it out and $5 is juicy enough

Just round 16 and 22 or other games too? Saw one predictor had him 1 in r17

What does everyone actually have Kosi on? Seems to be 3-4 at best, polling in losses in round 16 and 22. That would take him to 15.5. So are we thinking Melbourne's top end is shaky just because it's Gawn? or Trac is no chance for 13? Or does this go back to NYRB's r16 analysis and everyone's...

I'm actually really disappointed this year with the handicaps. Something is so off. Normally they open everything at least $4-5+ , this time they've really favoured so many of the scratch players and opened them really short. Normally a good 3 leg multi would be 120:1+, now its ~20:1. It's...

Oh yeah BYB has Hornet 20.5 actually. Yeah those 4 + statsinsider, aflratings, and wheeloratings.

Lol yeah probably reflects the real uncertainty around Hornet in the market. Is $1.20 for 20+ when no public predictors that I can see have him over 19.5. Definitely has potential but I think the value has been sucked out in most places now. The 25+ went up 100:1 on him.