$1 Billion for next TV rights - forget it!

[meltiger]

Yeah some beauracrats living off-shore are really going to have a feel for the Australian economy. It was only 3 days ago the budget would not go into deficit, now it is. Most economists are already talking recession.

According to who?


Liars stating something as fact doesn't make it so. Every man and his dog has kown for weeks the budget was likely to head into deficit in the next budget except for the denials coming from Ruddy07 & his merry band of mouthpieces.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Please tell me how this fits into your 'fundamentals'.

Ten to lose key footy sponsor
Dan Oakes | November 27, 2008

CHANNEL Ten's AFL coverage has felt the economic hard times, with Motorola ditching its broadcast sponsorship for next season.

Although a spokesman for the communications company denied a decision had been made, saying only that the "program was under review during this difficult time globally", a Ten spokeswoman confirmed the sponsorship had been lost.

A well-placed source told BusinessDay that Motorola spent $2.5 million on advertising last year, its fourth football season with Ten's AFL coverage.

But the Ten spokeswoman said the figure was less than that, and suggested that Motorola might be lured back.

"Motorola have been a solid national broadcast partner with the AFL, and we look forward to welcoming them back on to Ten in the future," she said.

BusinessDay also believes National Australia Bank, a big AFL sponsor, is considering reducing its football season advertising.

NAB announced this month that it would continue to support the pre-season series and the grassroots programs it has co-ordinated since 2006.

NAB will also maintain sponsorship of the Rising Star award, which began in 2002.

But it has yet to decide if it will continue to advertise on both Channel Seven and Ten, which has the broadcast rights for next year's grand final.

It is believed to be considering cutting one network.

"NAB is currently finalising its planning for the 2009 year, and it's too early at the moment to speculate on what that might be," a spokeswoman said yesterday.

"NAB has re-signed the AFL sponsorship arrangement and it remains an important sponsorship partner."

Are their any facts in this article at all ?

Its all speculation, and the opening line clearly demonstrates the agenda ".. felt the economic hard times". All backed up by rumour.

Pre 2008 when a sponsor pulled out it was normal business practice to review advertising. Now is because of "hard times".

Anyone notice tbe bounce over the last few days ?

Anyone not think Westpac/St George arent going to spend a lot of $$ on advertising in 2009 ?

 

[morgoth]

So you have no answer, as I thought.

All the evidence states advertising rates are falling sharply and the best you can come up with is 'westpac and st george will spend a lot'. Yeah and I bet car companies will be spending up big time also.

Ask anyone with experience in down-turns what is the first thing to be cut, marketing and advertising.

Yeah but you know better, ten at $1.12, seven $5.51 and CMJ (9) at $2.18, Fairfax $1.43. All at least 50% of their price 12 months ago? Why is that DJ? Could it be that the market is saying earnings are going to plummet? Why would that be?

Put up or shut up. You bring nothing but hot air to the table and promises of 'she'll be right mate'.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Put up or shut up. You bring nothing but hot air to the table and promises of 'she'll be right mate'.

You're the one who quoted an article based entirely on rumour.

Please remind me which institution you work for so I can avoid them like the plague.

 

[morgoth]

You're the one who quoted an article based entirely on rumour.

Please remind me which institution you work for so I can avoid them like the plague.

As I said you bring nothing to the table.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

As I said you bring nothing to the table.

Nothing >> Gossip.

 

[morgoth]

Pftttt, yeah gossip is market prices dropping 50%, you have no ability to argue facts, can't come up with reasonable assumptions based on said facts and show a complete inability to think for yourself.

Now run along and deliver the mail.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Pftttt, yeah gossip is market prices dropping 50%, you have no ability to argue facts, can't come up with reasonable assumptions based on said facts and show a complete inability to think for yourself.

Now run along and deliver the mail.

Cant wait for you next gossip article. Do you work for New Idea ?

 

[fairdinkum]

I see Doctor Jolly has avoided answering my question re: 'fundamentals' being 'strong'.

No surprise there, really.

 

[SweetLeftFoot]

Yeah and I bet car companies will be spending up big time also.

Mazda just re-signed with us.

While I agree with you on some points, I think that given that Aussie Rules is one of the few guaranteed products in the broadcast firmament, that it will still be very attractive to sponsors and broadcasters. If you do have limited dollars for broadcast/sponsorship, then you are going to want to get the most you can for it. Hence footy being quite attractive.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

I see Doctor Jolly has avoided answering my question re: 'fundamentals' being 'strong'.

No surprise there, really.

The OECD was all the proof I thought you needed.

Here are some quotes from the mining council of Australia, based around WA:

"The fundamental picture as far as commodities are concerned hasn't changed because of what has happened in credit markets over the last six to twelve months," he said.
"At the end of the day, the world's population is going to continue to grow. It is going to be insatiable. Unprecedented demand for commodities and of course, whilst all this is happening mining companies are knocking back projects."
Mining plays a vital role in the Australian economy,....."
http://www.migrationexpert.com/Aust..._still_strong_despite_Global_Financial_Crisis


Add stable government, stable population, wealth, education and skills, etc.

....and Australia is "fundamentally very strong" and the OECD says, could very well avoid recession all together. Makes those doomday cheerleaders like morgoth who are predicting a depression look rather impulsive.

 

[morgoth]

Find where I have called a depression d head. There is a difference between recession and depression you know.

Ha ha quoting the mining council over resources is like asking a pies supporter how they will go this year. Biased answer every time. Fact is China's growth has slowed dramatically along with the western world. That equals less resource demand for at least the next 6 to 12 months. Then again I guess that's why Oz Minerals is just tearing it up at the moment.

You do realise DJ that a down-turn of this magnitude does not correct over night?

 

[medusala]

Here are some quotes from the mining council of Australia, based around WA:

"The fundamental picture as far as commodities are concerned hasn't changed because of what has happened in credit markets over the last six to twelve months," he said.

I think OzMinerals may care to disagree with that.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Fact is China's growth has slowed dramatically along with the western world. That equals less resource demand for at least the next 6 to 12 months. Then again I guess that's why Oz Minerals is just tearing it up at the moment.

You do realise DJ that a down-turn of this magnitude does not correct over night?

Now that's where you have exaagerated things. China has grown at 10% to 11% for the last 10 years or so. A so called dramatic slow down to 6% still means it is growing. Ie it will be 106% the size of what it was 12 months ago not 94%.

So by way of example, if Australia sold 1 million tonnes in total of raw materials to China in 2006 then it sold 1.1mil tonnes in 2007 and 1.2mil tonnes in 2008, then a slow down means it will sell 1.25mil tonnes in 2009 not that it will sell 1.15mil tonnes in 2009.

The question then is what is average selling price per tonne?

People make the mistake that a slow down means negative growth. That's incorrect. A slow down means growth is at a slower rate than before but still more has been sold than 12 months ago. I don't think I have read anywhere that the tonnes of individual resources shipped has gone backwards. But yes selling prices have dropped.

Trade stats to 30 Sept

http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/mtd/australia_trade_0809.pdf

China stats
http://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/fs/chin.pdf

2007-08 trade info
http://www.dfat.gov.au/publications/stats-pubs/dme/direction_exports_0708.pdf

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Australian TV network spends big on programming.

CHANNEL 7 has snatched the rights to the Channel 10 ratings gem Thank God You're Here, with the price tag believed to be the princely sum of $1 million per episode.

http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/story/0,26278,24744240-10229,00.html

Rumours and speculations are one thing. But $$ is what counts. This massive increase for an Australian TV show, plus Sam Newmans massive pay rise right in morgoths "financial meltdown" period says it all really.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Find where I have called a depression d head. There is a difference between recession and depression you know.

Ha ha quoting the mining council over resources is like asking a pies supporter how they will go this year. Biased answer every time. Fact is China's growth has slowed dramatically along with the western world. That equals less resource demand for at least the next 6 to 12 months.

I have come to the conclusion that you are a dead set idiot.
Growth has slowed in China, but its still growing. Growing means it will consume more resources in 2009 than it did in 2008. In 2008 more than 2007, etc. That equals more resource demand.

I also see in other threads how you are blaming the Rudd government for the current problems. Any half-wit could tell you that its driven from overseas and past policies of easy credit. Are you insane, or just pushing a stupid agenda ?
While Europe and the states enter recession (GDP shrinks for at least 2 consecutive quarters.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession#cite_note-0), Australia is yet to even get close.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

If morgoth doesnt understand the difference between "reduced growth", and "negative growth" (ie. shrinkage), then he simply must inform as of the institution he works for, so the members of bigfooty can invest elsewhere.

I would certainly not want to risk my money in his hands.

 

[damochandler]

this will go to the highest bidder. i still say 9 will throw the kitchen sink at getting the rights back with fox. i rekon the afl are hoping seven never get again. seven have 3 years to improve their coverage of the afl isay to have any chance of getting the next rights. that will be factor in the negotiations. if 9 do what they did last time and garuntee friday night game will be shown at decent time. they will get the rights. seven wont do that

 

[Doctor Jolly]

this will go to the highest bidder. i still say 9 will throw the kitchen sink at getting the rights back with fox. i rekon the afl are hoping seven never get again. seven have 3 years to improve their coverage of the afl isay to have any chance of getting the next rights. that will be factor in the negotiations. if 9 do what they did last time and garuntee friday night game will be shown at decent time. they will get the rights. seven wont do that

AFL will sell to the highest bidder. Seven, Nine, Ten, Foxtel, or any combination of those. Money talks at AFL HQ.

 

[morgoth]

Yeah it is looking so good that the AFL has cancelled the roll out of the Western Sydney team.

As for your quotes on China, just amateur hour stuff. Commodity prices are telling you the exact opposite. Mine expansions and new mines are being cancelled left right and centre but its all a OK. Thats called growth in Australia and it is gone.

The US and Europe are in recession for the first time since world war II and Japan has joined them. You are seriously underestimating how serious this all is. Oh yeah LIBOR is going back up, so the credit crisis is getting worse (again).

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Yeah it is looking so good that the AFL has cancelled the roll out of the Western Sydney team.

Now you're resorting to lying. WS has not been cancelled.

As for your quotes on China, just amateur hour stuff. Commodity prices are telling you the exact opposite. Mine expansions and new mines are being cancelled left right and centre but its all a OK. Thats called growth in Australia and it is gone.

Rate of growth reduced = Rate of mine expansions reduced. It aint rocket science.

The US and Europe are in recession for the first time since world war II and Japan has joined them. You are seriously underestimating how serious this all is. Oh yeah LIBOR is going back up, so the credit crisis is getting worse (again).

Japan is a very bad choice of example in the agenda you're trying to push.

 

[morgoth]

Japan is our biggets export customer and is the second biggest economy in the world. They go into recession and it impacts heavily on our economy. Throw in the US, the largest, and Europe, (second biggest when treated as a zone) and there is a major contraction going on.

Of course we are immune, thats why we just posted growth figures of .1% for Sept Qtr, and guess what, Oct and Nov were worse.

 

[morgoth]

So Dr Jolly, I thought the AFL was looking good re the TV rights? Are you a sybil ie split personalities cos I just found this post by you on the main board:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=522711

Caro's article. Typical rubish. Its all inuendo, and the only fact in there is that the AFL wont BRING FORWARD the start date of 2012.

How does ruling out starting earlier, imply starting later ???

Sydney (currently only the swans) is the bellweather to the value of the TV rights. With the swans rebuilding, TV rights are under jepody. To mitigate that, Sydney needs two sides.

If the AFL does not bring in a Sydney side by 2012, they are incompetent.

Yet when I raised the same issue it was a non event.

I believe that is refered to as being owned. Game, set and match.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

So Dr Jolly, I thought the AFL was looking good re the TV rights? Are you a sybil ie split personalities cos I just found this post by you on the main board:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=522711



Yet when I raised the same issue it was a non event.

I believe that is refered to as being owned. Game, set and match.

Sydney team(s) are a bellweather to TV rights value. Poor Sydney team(s) effects TV tights value.

Totally different to the hogwash you sprout.
But do tell us more about how WS has been cancelled, and Rudd is to blame for global financial crisis.
;-)

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Japan is our biggets export customer and is the second biggest economy in the world. They go into recession and it impacts heavily on our economy. Throw in the US, the largest, and Europe, (second biggest when treated as a zone) and there is a major contraction going on.

Of course we are immune, thats why we just posted growth figures of .1% for Sept Qtr, and guess what, Oct and Nov were worse.

No, Japan is a bad example because it has very low growth figures for decades, and slips in and out of recession often. Last time was about 7 years ago. No GFC then.