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agree, it will drop and you can bet West Sydney will be shelved until the economy starts moving again, at least 5-10 years
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$1 Billion for next TV rights - forget it!
- Thread starter morgoth
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agree, it will drop and you can bet West Sydney will be shelved until the economy starts moving again, at least 5-10 years
In this current economic climate I reckon it'll be later than sooner. There's only so much a sponser can committ to right now, and even the average Joe Blogg is strting to feel the pinch so he's certainly not going to be rushing out buying a family membership to a Gold Coast team.
Times are tough and about to get tougher.
Another consideration is a possible downturn in Foxtel/Austar subscriptions.
More people unemployed and people starting to cut back their budgets, you'd assume luxuries will be the first to go.
And considering that profit warning by seven, I imagine their coverage will be even more bare bones than usual next year.
More people unemployed and people starting to cut back their budgets, you'd assume luxuries will be the first to go.
And considering that profit warning by seven, I imagine their coverage will be even more bare bones than usual next year.
On the contrary, in tough times people tend to stay home for their entertainment. $80-100 a month for Foxtel is nothing when one night on the sauce can set you back that much.
Pay TV / HD / internet are all stay at home entertainment set to boom further.
At least the AFL has the cash to stay afloat, it might find it has fewer competitors or better put, weaker competitors. There is already talk that the 5th team in the rugby Super 14 will need to go to Japan to retain $, how many NRL clubs will survive the next 1-2 years in Sydney (sponsorship dries up,etc) , possibly opening up chances for the AFL western Sydney to grow a supporter base.
It is impossible to predict the economic conditions in 2011 when the AFL rights will be negotiated.
Redb
the afl are really hoping and banking on getting a billion dollars for the next tv rights. they need it to get these two new teams up and running and to be viable in those markets. do i think it will happen. its unlikely to happen with channel 7 and 10. but fox and 9 will do it
- Thread starter
- #31
9 is majority owned by a private equity firm, it was a highly leveraged buy-out. They are nearly in breach of their debt covenents ie the banks may move in!
Somehow committing to a billion dollar deal looks unlikley. All 3 of the FTA networks have major issues at the moment with 7 best placed. The only hope AFL has if (big if) the law gets changed and Foxtel can win the rights (remove anti siphoning). Outside of that it is hard to see where the money can come from. 2 years is a long time but advertising is done a year ahead so really it is one year and the economy looks like struggling for some time.
Of course they tend to stay home, but they also cut back across the board. $80-100 maybe nothing to you or I, but to people with kids it's probably vital money. And if the primary wage earner loses their job what will they cut off first? Pay TV or the internet?
You can download a replay of pretty much any NFL or Premier League game and AFL games available are slowly going up each year. Any TV show on pay TV, you can download.
It becomes a question of which service is the most expendable.
NASCAR sponsorship plummeting, French GP cancelled and Man U debt being flogged in a fire sale
Good thing we have Vlad Canute to hold back the tide.
Good thing we have Vlad Canute to hold back the tide.
HBF
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That's a very good point. Channel 9 will throw as much as they can at the AFL to get the rights back.
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- #36
Go back and read the entire thread, but just for you I will repeat it.
9 is majority owned by a private equity consortium. They have geared the vehicle to the eyeballs and are now in serious danger of breaching their debt covenents ie they have no money!
They are no different to the other networks re declining advertising revenue but they have one major disadvatnage, their bankers may be calling the shots soon, and banks do not like to spend.
AFL is in trouble, like the rest of the country. Next year you will probably see a fall in membership, crowds and foxtel subscribers and a rise in FTA ratings. Problme is the advertisers will not be paying up as one of the first things to get cut back in hard times is the advertising and marketing budgets.
Don't be surprised to see Channel Nine staying out of the next AFL TV rights deal, because the network is about to undergo possibly the biggest shake-up in its history. Nine is no longer 'Still the One.' I think Nine have made the biggest mistake in its history by going for the 2010 Winter Olympics and the 2012 London Olympics. By doing that, Nine may not possibly have the money it needs to put in a bid for the AFL TV rights.
You may have to keep repeating that. Some will continually find reasons to believe AFL will be immune.
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- #39
Well I hope they are right but my brain tells me otherwise. The AFL has a massive war chest and will ride it out but it will need to be careful re plans based on increasing revenue.
Inflation is at 5%, if it keeps on raising the nominal value could easily reach $1 billion.
- Thread starter
- #42
Ha ha, like it but it won't fix the balance sheets of ten and nine.
Since when has the price of everything been indexed to inflation?
What a simplistic assertion.
Do you understand what inflation is? Inflation is the rate of the change of the level of prices in the economy.
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- #45
And do you understand what being in breach of debt covenents means?
Infaltion will not be an issue for some time, recession will be.
- Thread starter
- #46
The following was found in the Sunday Mail in Adelaide...
" A few whispers beginning to circulate from across the border that a high-profile South Australian football identity is planning to challenge Eddie McGuire's Collingwood presidency.
It's believed a faction of former players feel it's time for a change after 10 years with McGuire at the helm and no flag to show for it.
It will be a bold gamble if it eventuates. Both on-field and off-field, the Pies are far in advance of the basket case they were when McGuire took over."
" A few whispers beginning to circulate from across the border that a high-profile South Australian football identity is planning to challenge Eddie McGuire's Collingwood presidency.
It's believed a faction of former players feel it's time for a change after 10 years with McGuire at the helm and no flag to show for it.
It will be a bold gamble if it eventuates. Both on-field and off-field, the Pies are far in advance of the basket case they were when McGuire took over."
- Thread starter
- #47
Packer quits PBL Media board
October 27, 2008 - 1:35PM
James Packer's Consolidated Media Holdings has effectively given up on PBL Media by refusing to put any more money in to the debt-laden joint venture.
ConsMedia this morning confirmed market rumours it would rebuff any attempts from PBL Media's majority owner, private equity group CVC Asia Pacific, for a capital injection.
''Consolidated Media Holdings announces today that . . . the ConsMedia board has resolved that ConsMedia does not intend to contribute any further funding to PBL Media,'' it said in a stock exchange announcement.
PBL Media's most well-known asset is Channel Nine, although it also owns ACP Magazines, Ticketek and stakes in carsales.com.au and ninemsn.
The announcement implicitly suggests that CVC or another investor will be required to make a substantial funding contribution to help cover PBL Media's onerous debt obligations, which would dilute ConsMedia's 25% stake.
Another implication is that ConsMedia's two representatives on the PBL Media board, James Packer and John Alexander, have resigned from that board ''with immediate effect''.
Mr Alexander, ConsMedia's executive chairman, is likely to be queried about the board's decision at its annual meeting in Melbourne tomorrow.
PBL Media was created in October 2006 after PBL, the Packer family's former media and gaming business, agreed to the $4.5 billion sale of its media assets to PBL Media, a 50:50 joint venture with CVC.
The payment was largely funded by debt assigned to PBL Media but, crucially, not extended to either PBL or CVC. PBL then sold an additional 25% stake in PBL Media to CVC for $515 million in June last year.
PBL's remaining 25% stake was transferred to ConsMedia late last year in the PBL demerger, which split the company in to ConsMedia and the gaming business, Crown Ltd.
The Age
October 27, 2008 - 1:35PM
James Packer's Consolidated Media Holdings has effectively given up on PBL Media by refusing to put any more money in to the debt-laden joint venture.
ConsMedia this morning confirmed market rumours it would rebuff any attempts from PBL Media's majority owner, private equity group CVC Asia Pacific, for a capital injection.
''Consolidated Media Holdings announces today that . . . the ConsMedia board has resolved that ConsMedia does not intend to contribute any further funding to PBL Media,'' it said in a stock exchange announcement.
PBL Media's most well-known asset is Channel Nine, although it also owns ACP Magazines, Ticketek and stakes in carsales.com.au and ninemsn.
The announcement implicitly suggests that CVC or another investor will be required to make a substantial funding contribution to help cover PBL Media's onerous debt obligations, which would dilute ConsMedia's 25% stake.
Another implication is that ConsMedia's two representatives on the PBL Media board, James Packer and John Alexander, have resigned from that board ''with immediate effect''.
Mr Alexander, ConsMedia's executive chairman, is likely to be queried about the board's decision at its annual meeting in Melbourne tomorrow.
PBL Media was created in October 2006 after PBL, the Packer family's former media and gaming business, agreed to the $4.5 billion sale of its media assets to PBL Media, a 50:50 joint venture with CVC.
The payment was largely funded by debt assigned to PBL Media but, crucially, not extended to either PBL or CVC. PBL then sold an additional 25% stake in PBL Media to CVC for $515 million in June last year.
PBL's remaining 25% stake was transferred to ConsMedia late last year in the PBL demerger, which split the company in to ConsMedia and the gaming business, Crown Ltd.
The Age
Really? I have heard of Inflation Linked Bonds, but never heard of Inflation Linked AFL Broadcast Rights.
So you basically believe that unless we have deflation, no asset price can ever fall.
- Banned
- #49
Alan Bond is cashed up with African diamonds. It would be funny if he buys out channel 9 in a PBL fire sale, and comes out with the line: "You only get one James Packer in a lifetime".
- Banned
- #50
Really? I have heard of Inflation Linked Bonds, but never heard of Inflation Linked AFL Broadcast Rights.
So you basically believe that unless we have deflation, no asset price can ever fall.
Whats Ronin doing in this thread. Its got nothing to do with NRL, unless he's jealous of $1billion dollars even being mentioned with AFL, and openly hoping it never happens.
Anyway, anyone of the many financial whizz kids here done any correlation analysis of AFL TV rights to inflation over the past umpteen years ?
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