2004-2007 Draft Review

[CAS79]

obvious question, who is this Gloury-hole, and what is this formula?

but besides that.... no one actually needs a formula to work out our draft picks in general were pretty average in this time period

but looking at our list now, who really cares.... because our list is in great shape

I read an article on his formula yesterday but I don't think it was overly explained.

But it appeared based on past results and when draft picks played and how many survived and how high they were. Done this vs how teams have done this in the past performed.

It sounds exactly like the snake oil horse racing formula's based on past horses in past races mean following the same pattern this year this will happen based on numbers.

You bet on that formula and you will go broke. Same said for this draft formula.

 

[barry fu]

2007 draft, enter Kinnear Beatson.:diamond:
The Warren Buffet of drafting ! And he is ooooooouuuuuuuuurrrrrrrrrsssss:spade:
No need to tank when you have a Stealth Beatson Boomber.

 

[liz]

I suspect that any way you cut things, the Swans are going to finish close to the bottom of the rankings - the DOK miss alone would make a big contribution to that. And the fact that the Northern Knights trio of Currie, Meredith and Veszpremi have spent more time injured in the last two seasons than playing won't have helped either.

But chances are that the formula is going to produce results biased towards the bottom performing clubs, simply because they tend to play their younger players sooner than the better performing clubs. So if the Dees weren't coming out near the top, there would be something majorly wrong with them. Whether their draftees will still be ranked amongst the best, relative to draft position, when all those players are in the 23-26 age range remains to be seen. And however you grade how those young Melbourne draftees have gone, it still remains that they've barely won a game of senior AFL footy between them.

 

[CAS79]

And however you grade how those young Melbourne draftees have gone, it still remains that they've barely won a game of senior AFL footy between them.

Quoted for a simple yet brilliant and accurate summation of the whole topic. I think we can close this one off after that call.

 

[swan song 2]

What about the fact that in those years after the premiership in 05 we persevered with all the older players, plugged holes with the likes of Teddy mattner shaw etc and actually never even gave the younger players a hope right down to the end of 2009 season. Playing Leo for the last 3 games, Crouch on one leg.FFS If the coaching staff had have done their job properly and managed the list we would not be in this situation we are now in. We have a calamity about to happen. A bag of licorice allsorts and we are going to try and be competitive with so many new players
Further, if we try to play the same game plan as we have in the past we are dead in the water.
It is going to be a long time before we even look like premiership material
GWS most probably will surpass us!!

 

[Swans120]

Wow, most pessimistic Swans person i've heard this off season.

Ted, Shaw and Mattner ahve all more than deserved their spots in the team. Shaw was brilliant last yearn, Mattner solid and Ted more than solid.

We are not about to see a "calamity happen" i assure you of that.

 

[SM]

What about the fact that in those years after the premiership in 05 we persevered with all the older players, plugged holes with the likes of Teddy mattner shaw etc and actually never even gave the younger players a hope right down to the end of 2009 season. Playing Leo for the last 3 games, Crouch on one leg.FFS If the coaching staff had have done their job properly and managed the list we would not be in this situation we are now in. We have a calamity about to happen. A bag of licorice allsorts and we are going to try and be competitive with so many new players
Further, if we try to play the same game plan as we have in the past we are dead in the water.
It is going to be a long time before we even look like premiership material
GWS most probably will surpass us!!

What......?

Don't even know where to begin with how wrong this load of comments is so won't bother.

 

[tesseract]

I suspect that any way you cut things, the Swans are going to finish close to the bottom of the rankings - the DOK miss alone would make a big contribution to that. And the fact that the Northern Knights trio of Currie, Meredith and Veszpremi have spent more time injured in the last two seasons than playing won't have helped either.

But chances are that the formula is going to produce results biased towards the bottom performing clubs, simply because they tend to play their younger players sooner than the better performing clubs. So if the Dees weren't coming out near the top, there would be something majorly wrong with them. Whether their draftees will still be ranked amongst the best, relative to draft position, when all those players are in the 23-26 age range remains to be seen. And however you grade how those young Melbourne draftees have gone, it still remains that they've barely won a game of senior AFL footy between them.

I understand what your saying, but West Coast would be an exception to this rule.
WCE were a top 8 side in 04 and a top 4 side in 05, 06 & 07. And by this guy's formula, WCE were ranked number 2, only behind the Demons.

 

[SM]

But we didn't trade Goodes away while we were up the top and receive a crapload of picks for him.

 

[liz]

But we didn't trade Goodes away while we were up the top and receive a crapload of picks for him.

Nor did we manage to be so so crap (tank??) just two years after winning the premiership so that we snared pick 2 and an early 2nd round priority pick.

West Coast fans are going to be completely unbearable in the near future, bragging about Naitanui and Swift (both of whom look like outstanding prospects) and will conveniently forget how they got their hands on them.

(And yes, I know this has nothing to do with the topic at hand, as Naitanui and Swift are not covered by this latest whizz-bang analysis. I just felt like having a whinge about a competition that encourages teams that are having ordinary years to not just be bad, but to be excrutiatingly bad.)

 

[SM]

At least this year there's no incentive Liz.