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- Apr 22, 2006
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2011 National Draft
Geelong BF Preview Thread
Geelong BF Preview Thread
When: November 24, 2011
Where: A wretched hive of scum and villainy (Western Sydney)
Geelong's Picks: 26, 48, 66, 84
Links
- AFL Draft Combine
Player Previews:
- Medium Forwards
- Rucks
- Medium Defenders
- Small forwards/midfielders
- Medium Midfielders
- Tall Forwards
- Tall Defenders
- AFL Draft Order- Medium Forwards
- Rucks
- Medium Defenders
- Small forwards/midfielders
- Medium Midfielders
- Tall Forwards
- Tall Defenders
- Official BF Phantom Draft (Trial Run)
- Potential Draftee Watch 2011
Preview:
The AFL should give Steven Wells a premiership medallion as well. - Leigh Matthews
There is no bigger vindication of the recruiting nous of Stephen Wells than Geelong's capture of a third flag in five years. Not content to follow the AFL model of boom-and-bust, Wells drafting in the previous premiership years of 2007 and 2009 was instrumental in creating a squad capable of challenging for and winning a flag in defiance of the statistical science of premiership windows. Now he will be looking to do it again, in draft compromised by the arrival of Greater Western Sydney.
Two retirements have been confirmed - Cameron Mooney and Marcus Drum. It seems almost certain that Darren Milburn will follow them and that Mark Blake will leave the club to seek opportunities elsewhere. Cameron Ling and Brad Ottens have both acknowledged they are contemplating hanging up the boots, although at this stage the odds seem against it. It thus seems likely that Geelong will go into the trade/draft period with four holes on the list to fill.
Reckon that there's three broad courses this period could take:
Scenario #1: Business As Usual
As Turbo said in the PDW thread, the defining characteristic of Stephen Wells as a recruiter is that he doesn't follow the herd. If spots are there on the list Wells will go hard in the draft regardless of whether or not is shallow or compromised. He's also a pretty hard marker of those already on the list: not many rookies make the cut onto the main list at Geelong.
So there's every chance that come November 24 - maybe after dishing a fringe player or two for some pick upgrades - Geelong will take four picks in the draft.
Scenario #2: Geelong Trades for a pick in the GWS Mini-Draft
Part of GWS compensation this year was to be able to pre-list 17yr old players - who would have been considered bottom-aged a few years ago, before draft eligibility changed - and then trade picks in a 'mini-draft' for these players to established clubs. The idea being that GWS could trade for more mature players and consequently be more competitive initially than the GC.
Most of the attention for this has been focused on young West Australian Jaeger O'Meara, who is generally tipped to go No 1. However mid-year Geelong was linked with Jake Stringer, a Bendigo native who broke his leg early in the season playing for the Pioneers. Stringer was a member of the AIS-AFL Academy squad and trained with Geelong for a week pre-season. The Cats have form on picking guys off the back of long term injuries - and a specific comparison comes in Travis Varcoe, who was bottom-aged when the Cats picked him in 2005 and had missed the entire 05 season with a foot injury.
It's still unclear just what sort of price range these kids will attract, because GWS has to trade four picks away over the next two trade/draft periods and so cannot hold clubs totally to ransom; and while it's generally the other Ablett compensation pick which is being spoken of as the centre of any deal, other picks or players could become involved.
Scenario #3 - Geelong go rookie crazy
This seems the most unlikely of the three, but it's possible. With rookies counting as picks under relaxed draft rules, Geelong could upgrade several and thus limit it's draft exposure to Picks #26 and #48. The likely candidates are Bathie, Simpkin, Weston and Walker.
Who are we likely to draft?
Everyone can tell that players like Jonathan Patton and Stephen Coniglio will be guns - but Geelong aren't going to get within cooee of them. The trick is to identify the group of players who are going to be roundabout Geelong's picks. Obviously there are sliders and bolters in every draft, but generally you can identify 5-10 players who are thereabouts and work from there.
There's other factors in play as well. Geelong's stated draft policy is to balance best available with needs, a reflection of our usual absence from the trade table. This year most would say our list is pretty well positioned but could use one or two more KPPs. But that was the general consensus last year as well - and Wells ignored the key position stock until the rookie draft. Conversely in 2008 there probably wasn't a pressing need for key position players after 06/07 but Wells drafted Brown and Gillies with our first two picks.
There's also the issue of origin: there are patterns in Wells drafting. If you look at it by Carnival team, 19 out of 47 players on our list came direct from Vic Country's catchment area, dwarfing the next nearest (Metro with 8 and SA with 6). But Country's looking like the weakest team in Div 1 at this stage and despite the preponderance of Country recruits, since 1999 Wells has spent more first rounders on players from interstate than Country. Wells also doesn't mind a successful club: the Falcons and the Cannons are heavily represented on our list and he's poached the likes of Menzel and Varcoe from Centrals in the SANFL. That's not to say we're guaranteed to pick three Country boys and a Cannon this year, but it's worth keeping in mind.
So a handful of suggestions - guys I saw play this year who I think are likely to be around our pick:
Sam Docherty (183/85): Gippy boy who played in Country's last two games, winning BOG against WA. Looks a typical modern halfback with excellent kicking skills and real dash.
Josh Waldhuter (183/83): another Centrals boy who played alongside one D. Menzel in the 18s a couple of years ago. Like Docherty seemed a typical modern half back at the Champs with a bit of dash and a thumping boot, but was also able to stand up in and break through tackles. Elsewhere is getting talked up for his contested ball work and hardness at the pill; could potentially be developed into an all-round midfielder.
Andrew Boseley (194/80): Hard to gauge his position in the draft. Like a lot of the KPPs seems very much a project type but had a really good game against Patton with Country crumbling around him. Wouldn't hurt that he's a Falcon.
Mitchell Grigg (181/85): Normally I'd say we wouldn't get close to him as he looks like a gun midfielder - just a natural footballer who is dominant on the inside but can also kick the ball well - but apparently there's a pretty serious question mark over his pace. Maybe someone should get in his ear and tell him to stack on a few kilos ala Bundy. Interesting to see what his DC results are.
Clay Smith (180/82): Probably an outside chance to slide to us but again just seems a very Geelong-type player. Super competitive in the contest and uses the ball well. On the smaller side but that could just increase the slide.
Also two other names (who I didn't see but should be mentioned):
Jed Bews (186/78): Played a few games for Geelong in the VFL and while we've yet to commit the word coming from his Dad on KRock has been cautiously optimistic. Shifter's wrap:
Athletic, versatile, reliable defender who is an effective, composed decision-maker. Eligible to go to Geelong under the father/son rule. From Leopold FC.
Jake Stringer (191/86): Player we've been linked to with GWS. Never seen him play, so here's an Emma Quayle article instead.
Finally, some other names you might see linked to Geelong in the next two months: Taylor Adams, Jackson Merrett, Brad Crouch (possibly smokey for GWS mini-draft), Brodie Mihocek and Jai Sheehan.
If so he might well slide to 26 after all 
