2012 Predictions Pt.II

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Quote:
Originally Posted by gbatman

Carlton - Will improve quite a bit and will be a top 3 side and Premier contender. A number of guys who have struggled for fittness in recent years like Bower, Lucas, Carrazzo, Collins, Curnow, Waite, Kreuzer, Jamison, Hampson, Warnock and Russell are fighting fit. Youngsters Gibbs, Lucas, Collins, Garlett, Hampson, Davies, Touhy, Curnow, Laidler, Kreuzer, Robinson, Ellard and Joseph will be all coming into their prime of their careers as mature players. Young players Mitchell and Watson and Maybe McInness and McCarthy might also make an impact. New mature recruit Rowe will also bolster the tall forward stocks. Established players Murphy, Walker and Duigan can go up another level as well. Juddy, Simpsons and Scotland will all be fit by round 1. Dylan Buckley is a chance to impact too.

Eagles - The improvement last year came from older players and a couple of young ones. I don't think they can get better than what they were last year.


Perfect example of one eyed bias, knowing heaps about your own side and not much about another, hoping everything goes right and the opposition stay still their players don't improve.

So at the Eagles none of these guys will improve?:
  1. Naitanui - played the entire season with a peck injury that needed surgery
  2. S Selwood - best year yet but was hampered with a lower back complaint over the last third of the year
  3. Gaff - 1st year player, was handled carefully and needs 2>3 preseasons to build his body to AFL level
  4. Darling - 1st year player who was held back in his first preseason to manage groin issues. Yep, this guy like Gaff has peaked in his 1st year.:cool:
  5. Shuey - finally had some luck in his 3rd season and played 22 games, came 5th in the Eagles B&F and is now leading the running packs this preseason.
  6. Ash Smith - super quick rebounding HBFer / winger - best season to date and played 15 odd games in his 3rd year, very exiting prospect.
  7. Eric MacKenzie - replacement for Glass, has taken some time to develop and is finally getting there. No longer making silly decisions by foot and played all over Franklin in his last game.
  8. J Schofield - super quick 196cm 3rd tall who can take the ruckman or the mid sixed forwards. 2011 was his best year by far and still improving.
  9. M Brown - our prefered CHB who started strongly then broke his thumb and missed 12 weeks, couldn't force his way back in the side.
  10. Sheppard - similar to Lucas, low pick 2 years ago, has played now 15 odd games but injury held him back in 2011.
  11. Koby Stevens - beast of a kid, inside mid who got a couple of games in 2011 and 12 but couldn't break into the side due to injury and with Pridis, Kerr, S Selwood, Shuey playing well.
  12. T Swift - finding it tough to get a game, his best spot is inside but like Stevens can't dislodge the older guys, two knee recos as a kid has meant a slow build up.
  13. S Lycett - touted as the 2nd best ruck in the 2010 draft and the future replacement for Cox. No improvement possible here? Huge for an 18 yr old and very agile.
  14. G Weedon - skillfull HFFer in the mould of Chris Lewis, played 1 game as the sub and 2012 will be his 3rd season.
  15. J Hill ex Bulldogs - flashy HFFer who fell out with Rocket Eade, he's now at his second club, has shown he has the talent and pace but needs to get his head right.
Thats 15 guys, young guys between 19 and 23 with their best football ahead of them not behind them. But you can't see any improvement possible from last season?:thumbsdown:


And finally we traded out B Ebert, is an inside mid who was played as a HFFer, lacked the pace or the foot skills to play that role and was inconsistant by foot.

Because the Eagles have so many young guys who will be reaching their 2nd and 3rd seasons and 50 > 100 games the Eagles squad has a fair amount of improvement left in it. Then you look at the older guys who will drop away / retire and ask what will replace them?
 
The only thing we can be extremely confident about is that Richmond, Melbourne, Port and GWS will all be absolute rubbish.

Teams like Brisbane and North could go either way.
 

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lol Obeanie1. You sound like a Hawks supporter with all that talk about your players being injured.
 
Quote:
Shotties:

Of course, it's just as likely that most of those players will stagnate and go backwards.

I'm still amazed by the amount of people who see progression and improvement as a linear, one directional process.
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Nothin' but luck: www.bit.ly/aP0qCr


Clubs do go through cycles and experts talk about the 'premiership model' etc. People who think that their team will simply always improve over the last season don't get this at all.

If you break a list down into age groups, experience (games played), list balance (talls v smalls) and what succession plans are in place and the quality of these then you can start making a qualified / quantified prediction on what may happen next season.

My response to the Carlton poster was make this point. Their opinion was that their team (Carlton) would improve but the Eagles couldn't do better than last year.

Teams like Brisbane and Port over the past two seasons have lost more quality and experienced players than they have developed / gained so the trend here would indicate a couple more years of development and similar ladder results are needed before significant improvement and ladder position will be seen.

The Eagles have been rebuilding their list with youth and low draft picks for 3>4 years now and last season surprised everyone. Next year I expect these 1st>4th year players to continue improving with another preseason, another 15>20 games experience and now also with the added confidence and added hunger of getting three finals under their belts. I'm hoping a young Weedon, J Hill, A Smith or Sheppard will force a Nicoski or a Embely or a Adam Selwood out of the side because they continue to improve.
 
lol Obeanie1. You sound like a Hawks supporter with all that talk about your players being injured.

Good call ;)

One thing i'd like to point out naitanui had the same injury didak was such a hero for playing through in the 2010 finals series ;) Except he played through it for an entire season plus finals series and guess what, nobody shoved it down your throats telling us what an inspirational hero he was for it lol.
 
1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Carlton
4. Geelong
5. St Kilda
6. West Coast
7. Fremantle
8. Essendon
9. Richmond
10. Melbourne
11. Western Bulldogs
12. North Melbourne
13. Sydney
14. Adelaide
15. Gold Coast
16. Brisbane
17. Port Adelaide
18. GWS

NAB Cup - Collingwood
Premiership - Hawthorn
Brownlow - Selwood
Coleman - Franklin
 
One of North, Melbourne, Doggies, Freo or Brisbane will shoot up I to the top four. Add Essenfon to that, but less likely dueTo the average midfield.


2012 won't be as predictable as 2011, in which the top four were miles ahead of the rest of the pack.


One of Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood or WCE will have a shocking run of injuries and form and essentially waste the year. I'm expecting it to be Geelong because they just can't keep going forever.


Gold Coast will look red hot for the first month or so but then come back to the pack when their depth is tested.


St Kilda are just about the only side I'm certain about. They'll fall spectacularly. Ross was the only thing holding that joint together and he's run for the hills.


Sydney have been building for a while but rely too much on the 30+ guys in Goodes OKeefe and Bolton.


Richmond is a side I have no faith in. They'll be the side I barrack for when
I'm not watching the hawks because they don't look like they'll ever be a threat.


Hopefully we see a season where Franklin, Cloke, Riewoldt x 2, JPod, Brown etc all kick lots of goals.
 
One of North, Melbourne, Doggies, Freo or Brisbane will shoot up I to the top four. Add Essenfon to that, but less likely dueTo the average midfield.


2012 won't be as predictable as 2011, in which the top four were miles ahead of the rest of the pack.


One of Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood or WCE will have a shocking run of injuries and form and essentially waste the year. I'm expecting it to be Geelong because they just can't keep going forever.


Gold Coast will look red hot for the first month or so but then come back to the pack when their depth is tested.


St Kilda are just about the only side I'm certain about. They'll fall spectacularly. Ross was the only thing holding that joint together and he's run for the hills.


Sydney have been building for a while but rely too much on the 30+ guys in Goodes OKeefe and Bolton.


Richmond is a side I have no faith in. They'll be the side I barrack for when
I'm not watching the hawks because they don't look like they'll ever be a threat.


Hopefully we see a season where Franklin, Cloke, Riewoldt x 2, JPod, Brown etc all kick lots of goals.
I cant see dogs, melbourne, north, freo,essendon and especially brisbane make the top 4.
 
Keep making yourself look foolish, I'm enjoying it.

You lost a quick half back flanker (Dempsey) and a quick mid (Winderlich) to season ending knee injuries plus Gumbleton who as always can never get on the park in any case.

Hurley had a few weeks out but returned.

Feel free to list all of the other massive outs who were injured for large parts of 2011 or even 2010.

Do you think Essendon'd injury problems have been above average compared to the norm or a large number of your longer term injuries have been to key players?

Every team has injuries, when you lack depth you are found out and and even an average injury list means you struggle. Look at Hawthorn, they had IMO an above average injury list come seasons end especially to their tall backs but they came within a kick of beating Collingwood and making the GF.

http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/122290/default.aspx

Compare Essendons list to Freo's round 24.

How about round 1:cool:

http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/113393/default.aspx

Or round 12

http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/115749/default.aspx

How about round 18

http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/118946/default.aspx


Sure you have a couple of half decent players out but none of them were a Johnathon Brown, or a Kerr, or a Roughead or a Jolly.
 
I'm predicting that Freo will be pushing for the top 6 despite Pav's form declining.

Like LP, I too think GC will be decent and surprise a few in the 1st half of the year but due to youthful bodies, lack of fitness and possible injuries they'll stagnate in the 2nd half.

I have a feeling (and that's all it is) that WCE will fall out of the top 4.

I'm predicting that Judd will be allowed to play no defense and not be made accountable for it by the media and fans. He'll also continue to struggle to reach 65% DE and yet still be referred to as sublimely skilled.
 
I predict Collingwood to come back to the pack just a little. Their coaching stocks have been absolutely decimated, and they seem like a team that thrived on continuity and familiarity.

That said, I still think they'll be top two, along with Geelong.

I think Carlton are ready to join them in the top four, but as always, they rely so heavily on so few that they are particularly prone to the injury gods dictating how their team performs.

I see Hawthorn rounding out the top 4.

The next half of the 8 could be made up by a lot of teams. I think its likely that we'll see St Kilda in the mix, and the Doggies have no excuse either. West Coast should be aiming to finish top four, but I think they'll come back a little this year. The last spot could be anyone from North, Essendon, Sydney, Fremantle, Melbourne (listed in order of likelihood imo).

For the Demons I think we'll just start playing more consistent football, and Watts will emerge as the best young forward in the league. As the team get's more used to the new gameplan and fitness expectations, we'll be looking to play finals in 2012, though I have no doubt that Mark Neeld wants us playing finals this year.

I think GWS will go through the year without winning a game, that list is horrible, especially in the midfield, but ESPECIALLY in the key position stocks. And especially in the forward line and back line. They might get a shot against Gold Coast or maybe Port, but even then they'd need some serious injuries to those teams best players, and for those teams to be having a really off day and for it to be a home game and for some kind of mishap resulting in the other team only fielding 15 players to occur.

They will be that bad.
 
My prediction

1. Hawthorn - 18 wins
2. Collingwood - 17 wins
3.Geelong - 17 wins
4.Carlton - 15 wins
5. Sydney - 15 wins
6. West coast - 14 wins
7. Fremantle - 13 wins
8. North Melbourne - 11 wins
9. Adeilade - 10 wins
10. Essedon - 10 wins
11. Richmond - 10 wins
12. Saint Kilda - 9 wins
13. Melbourne - 8 wins
14. Brisbane - 7 wins
15. Bulldogs - 6 wins
16. Port - 4 wins
17. Gold coast - 4 wins
18. Gws - 3 wins

I think every club bar gws port and gold coast can play finals in 2012
 

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You lost a quick half back flanker (Dempsey) and a quick mid (Winderlich) to season ending knee injuries plus Gumbleton who as always can never get on the park in any case.

Hurley had a few weeks out but returned.

Feel free to list all of the other massive outs who were injured for large parts of 2011 or even 2010.

Do you think Essendon'd injury problems have been above average compared to the norm or a large number of your longer term injuries have been to key players?

Every team has injuries, when you lack depth you are found out and and even an average injury list means you struggle. Look at Hawthorn, they had IMO an above average injury list come seasons end especially to their tall backs but they came within a kick of beating Collingwood and making the GF.

http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/122290/default.aspx

Compare Essendons list to Freo's round 24.

How about round 1:cool:

http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/113393/default.aspx

Or round 12

http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/115749/default.aspx

How about round 18

http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/118946/default.aspx


Sure you have a couple of half decent players out but none of them were a Johnathon Brown, or a Kerr, or a Roughead or a Jolly.

Watson? missed 6 weeks from 2 seperate injuries, Hocking missed 6 (5 suspended but he was stilll out if we are just talking about players missing), Hurley missed 5 as well as playing injured, our two main KPD in Pears and Hooker missed 9 and 13 games.

And in reply to your Hawthorn tall backs comment, people forget about Hooker and Pears as well as our last option in Myers being out for large portions
In 2010 glass was out, but although he is miles ahead of Hooker and Pears, he is your main KPD and it hurt.

Maybe take a look at round 20?
http://www.afl.com.au/newsviews/injurynews/injurylist/tabid/17684/newsid/120022/default.aspx
 
I like most others can't see West Coast improving. They had an injury free year combined with a draw most clubs dream of. I can see them slotting in between 5-8 next year.
 
You lost a quick half back flanker (Dempsey) and a quick mid (Winderlich) to season ending knee injuries plus Gumbleton who as always can never get on the park in any case.

Hurley had a few weeks out but returned.

Feel free to list all of the other massive outs who were injured for large parts of 2011 or even 2010.

Do you think Essendon'd injury problems have been above average compared to the norm or a large number of your longer term injuries have been to key players?

Every team has injuries, when you lack depth you are found out and and even an average injury list means you struggle. Look at Hawthorn, they had IMO an above average injury list come seasons end especially to their tall backs but they came within a kick of beating Collingwood and making the GF.

Sure you have a couple of half decent players out but none of them were a Johnathon Brown, or a Kerr, or a Roughead or a Jolly.

Keep embarrassing yourself, mate.

You should take your own advice. You know nothing about our players so you should refrain from commenting.

Perfect example is Hurley. Missed two games did he? You do realise he carried 3 injuries all year don't you?

So when it's a West Coast player it's used as an excuse as to why they will improve next year but when it's another club it's "Oh he only missed two games and therefore didn't affect Essendon"

Clueless.

And where did I say that Essendon had more injuries to the norm and where did I use it as an excuse? I simply laughed at you for pulling the injury card on half of your list and laughed further when you stated Essendon had no injuries this year.

You clearly have no idea. Stick to talking about West Coast. Atleast with them you might at least know something.
 
1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Carlton
5. Fremantle
6. West Coast
7. North Melbourne
8. Richmond
----
9. Essendon
10. Sydney
11. St Kilda
12. Melbourne
13. Brisbane
14. Adelaide
15. Western Bulldogs
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. GWS
 
Essendon to slide. Won a number of games on emotion and got off to a flyer due to superior fitness and "hird is a guru" factor.

They very much remind me of Brisbane in Crazy Vossy's first year.

They made the finals(in fact won a final!) then started 4-0 the next year and was being lauded by all and sundry as a genius. Boy, have the wheels fallen off since then

The coach without the apprenticeship will struggle and they will slide as they simply don't have enough good midfielders.
 
One of North, Melbourne, Doggies, Freo or Brisbane will shoot up I to the top four. Add Essenfon to that, but less likely dueTo the average midfield.

Wouldn't shock me either if a Bulldogs, North, Essendon, Brisbane, or Freo made the top 4 (even two of them). You could probably throw Adelaide and St. Kilda in that bracket as well IMO (two unpredictable sides), but not Melbourne.

2012 won't be as predictable as 2011, in which the top four were miles ahead of the rest of the pack.

Agree with this also, I believe it'll be a very 'even' year where little separates the top 8 (possibly a 1993-type season). With Hawthorn, Carlton, and West Coast bridging the gap with Geelong/Collingwood, a more even top 8 could be on the cards in 2012.

One of Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood or WCE will have a shocking run of injuries and form and essentially waste the year. I'm expecting it to be Geelong because they just can't keep going forever.

If Geelong manage to go deep into September again next year, the whole 'can't keep going forever' theory will have been well and truly blown to pieces. A rejuvenated Geelong managed a flag this year, so I just don't see us falling terribly far. No reason why we can't challenge again next year with this current group (a large % of our core 22 are still in their prime), and after that I believe we'll be consistent and hang around the mark without bottoming out completely (see Sydney).
If any clubs season is derailed by injuries, I believe it may be West Coast, possibly Hawthorn (although the addition of depth into the Hawks side produced results this year when they were tested by injuries, as opposed to 2009/10). The first 6-7 rounds will tell a massive tale regarding this.

Gold Coast will look red hot for the first month or so but then come back to the pack when their depth is tested.
St Kilda are just about the only side I'm certain about. They'll fall spectacularly. Ross was the only thing holding that joint together and he's run for the hills.
Sydney have been building for a while but rely too much on the 30+ guys in Goodes OKeefe and Bolton.
Richmond is a side I have no faith in. They'll be the side I barrack for when
I'm not watching the hawks because they don't look like they'll ever be a threat.

Spot on regarding the Gold Coast, depth was tested at various stages this season and will be again next year (2013 is where things will change with key players beginning to mature). Richmond and Melbourne will, as usual, fail to deliver (despite the tyre-pumping that seems to be occurring regarding these two), and Sydney will again be consistent and hover around the 5-10 mark without seriously challenging. St. Kilda will provide some interest for me in 2012. Whilst I do believe they'll slide to around 11-12th, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they did the complete opposite. Other than Melbourne being a top 4 smokey and Geelong sliding, you've virtually read my mind with this post.
 
Essendon to slide. Won a number of games on emotion and got off to a flyer due to superior fitness and "hird is a guru" factor.

They very much remind me of Brisbane in Crazy Vossy's first year.

They made the finals(in fact won a final!) then started 4-0 the next year and was being lauded by all and sundry as a genius. Boy, have the wheels fallen off since then

The coach without the apprenticeship will struggle and they will slide as they simply don't have enough good midfielders.
Which games did we apparently win of 'emotion', the one against you?
I dont see how fitness wins you multiple games, the difference between us and vossy is that Hird didnt trade in a bunch of average players
And the coach without an apprenticeship? We have one of the best coaching panels in the game, thats not a problem.
Midfield I concede is weak but with guys like Heppell, Melksham and hopefully Kavanagh, it will improve quickly
 
Which games did we apparently win of 'emotion', the one against you?
I dont see how fitness wins you multiple games, the difference between us and vossy is that Hird didnt trade in a bunch of average players
And the coach without an apprenticeship? We have one of the best coaching panels in the game, thats not a problem.
Midfield I concede is weak but with guys like Heppell, Melksham and hopefully Kavanagh, it will improve quickly

Ahh, it didn't take long for them to bite.
Emotion and fitness?
Bulldogs game, the draw early in the year...they were enough to see you miss the finals if you lost them.

I just reckon Ess played on a high with all the emotion of Hird's appointment. FFS he got a standing ovation in a NAB cup game.

I am not sure about the best coaching panel thing..gee, didn't Geelong miss Mark Thompson when he left....oh, they won the flag!


Need "star" midfielders and I am not sure you have them
 
Ahh, it didn't take long for them to bite.
Emotion and fitness?
Bulldogs game, the draw early in the year...they were enough to see you miss the finals if you lost them.

I just reckon Ess played on a high with all the emotion of Hird's appointment. FFS he got a standing ovation in a NAB cup game.

I am not sure about the best coaching panel thing..gee, didn't Geelong miss Mark Thompson when he left....oh, they won the flag!


Need "star" midfielders and I am not sure you have them
the whole hird being the messiah thing was just the fans really, the bulldogs game, i assume you are talking about the one at the start of the season which is irrelevant since we beat them by the same margin later, carlton we were able to stick it out for a draw but one tough preseason doesnt make a team
For the star mids point, that i understand
We currently have Watson as our only a-grader, but we have the likes of Zaharakis, Melksham and Heppell coming up so we will see
 
1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. St Kilda
5. Fremantle
6. West Coast
7. Sydney
8. Carlton
----
9. Essendon
10. Melbourne
11. Brisbane
12. Adelaide
13. Western Bulldogs
14. North Melbourne
15. Richmond
16. Gold Coast
17. Port Adelaide
18. GWS
 
coll-still pretty strong
geel-should drop off a tiny bit
haw-there abouts again
carl-tall forward options the worry
wc-slight drop off
frem-there abouts
rich-the most promising team on the rise
melb-2nd most promising team on the rise
syd-always competitive
north-3rd most promising team on the rise
bris-improving
adel-also improving
st kil-on the fall
port-slight improvers
ess-lack midfield class
foots-need slight rebuild
gc-still work to do
gws-early days
 

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2012 Predictions Pt.II

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