2012 Predictions Pt.II

[bradrowe#32]

The one I'm really interested in is Melbourne. They've got some great cattle, although a bit light through the middle. Seemed to be a sea of disunity and some awful performances show morale and confidence was shot. If Neeld can pull these guys together they'll upset some top teams. Don't see them taking part in the finals but they could definitely throw a spanner in the works.

Agree with this, definitely a team to watch. They have a good draw too; they meet GWS and Brisbane twice, and only play Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Carlton and Sydney once each.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Can win the flag.

1. Hawthorn - I rate there kids and think Clarkson screwed up the selections late in the season. Injuries didn't help them in 2011.
2. Collingwood - Nothing wrong with this squad.
3. West Coast - Can improve because it's a developing squad, or we could tred water for 12 months.
4. Sydney - Still chronically under rated.
5. Geelong - Need to put them somewhere and will be in the running.
6. Fremantle - Decent mids, strong rucks, plenty of pace and a decent coach.

Can make the finals.

7. North - unlike those above they probably can't win a flag. But they are building the form base.
8. Melbourne - Could take 2-3 years for Neeld to work his stuff or it could happen over night.
9. Carlton - Great midfield, journeymen elsewere.
10. Essendon - Opposite problem to Carlton, they lack the midfield prowess of those around them. But are still building.
11. Richmond - Plenty of talent through the middle but tactically are still pretty weak, need some decent flankers to show themselves.

Won't make the finals.

12. St Kilda - New coach see's them slide a little. I don't rate Watters so we shall see how things turn out.
13. Adelaide - New coach, same cattle. Need to play the kids and strengthn mentally in 2012.
14. Brisbane - Plenty like about the list Brisbane are building but it's going to take some time.
15. Port - Again i like some of there players, but they havn't convinced me for some time.
16. Dogs - eh. Someones got to fall. New full time coach, lost Hall. Questions over Lake and Cooney.
17. GC - Finish 17th again and no PP.
18. GWS - Winless and Sheedy to get the sack.

 

[BrandonG]

Can win the flag.

1. Hawthorn - I rate there kids and think Clarkson screwed up the selections late in the season. Injuries didn't help them in 2011.
2. Collingwood - Nothing wrong with this squad.
3. West Coast - Can improve because it's a developing squad, or we could tred water for 12 months.
4. Sydney - Still chronically under rated.
5. Geelong - Need to put them somewhere and will be in the running.
6. Fremantle - Decent mids, strong rucks, plenty of pace and a decent coach.

Can make the finals.

7. North - unlike those above they probably can't win a flag. But they are building the form base.
8. Melbourne - Could take 2-3 years for Neeld to work his stuff or it could happen over night.
9. Carlton - Great midfield, journeymen elsewere.
10. Essendon - Opposite problem to Carlton, they lack the midfield prowess of those around them. But are still building.
11. Richmond - Plenty of talent through the middle but tactically are still pretty weak, need some decent flankers to show themselves.

Won't make the finals.

12. St Kilda - New coach see's them slide a little. I don't rate Watters so we shall see how things turn out.
13. Adelaide - New coach, same cattle. Need to play the kids and strengthn mentally in 2012.
14. Brisbane - Plenty like about the list Brisbane are building but it's going to take some time.
15. Port - Again i like some of there players, but they havn't convinced me for some time.
16. Dogs - eh. Someones got to fall. New full time coach, lost Hall. Questions over Lake and Cooney.
17. GC - Finish 17th again and no PP.
18. GWS - Winless and Sheedy to get the sack.

west coast won't make top 4 bookmark it

 

[JHF1870]

Hawthorn will dominate from start to finish. Premiership, Brownlow, Coleman

 

[CF]

Grand Final will be Collingwood versus Carlton - Collingwood will take the chocolates though

Hawthorn to fall at the final hurdle again - because their defence is crap and will get found out in finals as per usual

Geelong to drop out of the top 4 - rebuilding has begun

Fremantle back in the top 8 - I think 2011 was aberration due to horrendous injuries

North Melbourne to Fail again - the perennial middle of the road team will stay that way

 

[Suma Magic]

west coast won't make top 4 bookmark it

We finished 3 games clear of fifth, and have lost only Ebert from our side.

It's a decent fall you're tipping.

 

[WCE_phil]

We finished 3 games clear of fifth, and have lost only Ebert from our side.

It's a decent fall you're tipping.

Glass and Embley go on 1 year too long, kerr blows his hamstring again forcing him to retire, nicnat has a year like didak after the same injury and shuey has a fourth year like his first and second. Eagles finish bottom 4. Shit can and regularly does happen. While i look at 08, 09, 10, 11 and see 2010 as the anomaly in the recovery from the drug saga we could well do an adelaide of 09 and have 2011 as the anomaly and a false dawn.

On the same token we could see marginal improvement from our b grade players with 3-4 young players taking a step up to a scott selwood, nic naitanui, luke shuey of this year level whilst the previously mentioned names become A graders all whilst still having a very good, consistant output from the senior names and finish top 2.

Both of the above options are legitimate chances to happen and everything in between those two levels could happen as well. Such is football.

 

[Suma Magic]

Very true Phil. We could slide right down, any club can.

Whilst we lack stars, we have decent b-grade depth to cover for injuries I reckon.

 

[BrandonG]

Very true Phil. We could slide right down, any club can.

Whilst we lack stars, we have decent b-grade depth to cover for injuries I reckon.

i know your probably sick of hearing it but a top 4 draw will be alot harder then the wooden spoon draw , and its not often a team has a good run with injuries 2 years in a row

 

[Suma Magic]

Very true BrandonG.

Although considering we only lost two games by more than a couple of goals out of 25 in 2011, we'd have to fall hard and fast.

We could go from 17 and 5 to 14 and 8 and stay in 4th. We can slide and yet play in another qualifying final.

In my ladder, I have us sixth, and the blues top four. So I agree with what you're saying, but just pointing out it has to be a huge fall for us to drop out of the top 4.

 

[Smyth94]

We finished 3 games clear of fifth, and have lost only Ebert from our side.

It's a decent fall you're tipping.

Carlton will be comfortably better than WCE this year IMO.

 

[jko'neal]

i know your probably sick of hearing it but a top 4 draw will be alot harder then the wooden spoon draw , and its not often a team has a good run with injuries 2 years in a row

I wouldn't think the AFL sit down at the start of a season and dish out draws as per the previous years finish. IMO the thing that may drop West Coast off just a bit, is the fact just about everyone on their list had the season of their careers apart from maybe Le Cras or Kerr due to injury. Put your hand up if you had Nicoski kicking 41 goals last year

 

[I bleed Blue]

I wouldn't think the AFL sit down at the start of a season and dish out draws as per the previous years finish. IMO the thing that may drop West Coast off just a bit, is the fact just about everyone on their list had the season of their careers apart from maybe Le Cras or Kerr due to injury. Put your hand up if you had Nicoski kicking 41 goals last year

Well you would be wrong then. Its completly obvious the AFL does this. Just look at the fixture every year. The strong teams usually play each other twice (AFL does this so they get bigger crowds when there is a 'top of the table clash' ) and the weak teams play each other twice. You dont see GWS having to play Geelong, Pies and Hawks twice. The AFL does this to minimize blow outs and to make the compitition look more even.

They call it FIXture for a reason, its fixed. If it was simply a 'draw' then every team would play each other twice, home and away. Obviously thats not a reasonable option as the season would go too long, so you only play 5 teams twice (this year).

 

[willoblue]

Ooops! My error....forgot them...its hot here in Bangkok

1. West Coast
2. Carlton
3. Collingwood
4. Hawks
5. Geelong
6. Freo
7. Saints
8. Dogs

you must have banged your head, not another part of your body if you think that

 

[jko'neal]

Well you would be wrong then. Its completly obvious the AFL does this. Just look at the fixture every year. The strong teams usually play each other twice (AFL does this so they get bigger crowds when there is a 'top of the table clash' ) and the weak teams play each other twice. You dont see GWS having to play Geelong, Pies and Hawks twice. The AFL does this to minimize blow outs and to make the compitition look more even.

They call it FIXture for a reason, its fixed. If it was simply a 'draw' then every team would play each other twice, home and away. Obviously thats not a reasonable option as the season would go too long, so you only play 5 teams twice (this year).

The comment was made above that West Coast would have a tougher fixture due to finishing higher on the ladder, that's simply not true. They play the same amount of bottom 8 and top 8 teams twice as what my team does. And whilst your at it, check out Sydney's first 10 rounds and compare it to Richmond's, and your here trying to tell me the AFL make it easier for bottom teams
You are right about the 'fixed' term instead of a draw, it's fixed for Blockbusters, Signature games and Interstate Rivalry, and the rest are thrown in after those are sorted.

 

[I bleed Blue]

The comment was made above that West Coast would have a tougher fixture due to finishing higher on the ladder, that's simply not true. They play the same amount of bottom 8 and top 8 teams twice as what my team does. And whilst your at it, check out Sydney's first 10 rounds and compare it to Richmond's, and your here trying to tell me the AFL make it easier for bottom teams

Ok stick your head in the sand then.

 

[jko'neal]

Ok stick your head in the sand then.

You should come and live over here, place is full of people that make shit up

 

[I bleed Blue]

You should come and live over here, place is full of people that make shit up

So you dont think the AFL has given GWS an easier fixture this year because its going to be hard for them to compete? Or Gold Coast last year?

Seriously mate your kidding yourself and simply ignorant if you dont think the AFL factors these things into fixturing.

 

[jko'neal]

So you dont think the AFL has given GWS an easier fixture this year because its going to be hard for them to compete? Or Gold Coast last year?

Seriously mate your kidding yourself and simply ignorant if you dont think the AFL factors these things into fixturing.

You didn't use GWS or Gold Coast as examples, you stated the top teams play each other twice as do the bottom teams usually. That is simply not true, and of course they are not going to send GWS to the slaughter, although they do play Geelong on their turf.

 

[I bleed Blue]

You didn't use GWS or Gold Coast as examples, you stated the top teams play each other twice as do the bottom teams usually. That is simply not true, and of course they are not going to send GWS to the slaughter, although they do play Geelong on their turf.

West Coast last year had a dream draw and that was because the finished last the year befor that

Why dont the hawks have an easy draw such as Port or North Melbourne this year?

It happens and almost everyone knows it. If you dont want to beleive it thats up to you. Personally I think it happens and I dont want to argue with you over the matter anymore.

 

[pantskyle]

Robinson to go into every contest head first and smash every campaigner in his way. Does anyone disagree?

Robinson is as soft as butter. He is a hack.

 

[Wernumberone]

West Coast last year had a dream draw and that was because the finished last the year befor that

Why dont the hawks have an easy draw such as Port or North Melbourne this year?

It happens and almost everyone knows it. If you dont want to beleive it thats up to you. Personally I think it happens and I dont want to argue with you over the matter anymore.

There's nothing to argue about as the AFL say that they do it but it isn't absolute as they work it around scheduling blockbusters.

For example if say Collingwood finish out of the 8 and Essendon, Richmond and Carlton were in the top 4, then Collingwood could be seen to have a tough draw because they are guaranteed to play those teams twice every year, yet if say Port finish out of the 8, they will get the easiest draw as the only team i'm aware of they are guaranteed to play twice is Adelaide.

 

[HyperAgressiveDonk]

West Coast last year had a dream draw and that was because the finished last the year befor that

Why dont the hawks have an easy draw such as Port or North Melbourne this year?

It happens and almost everyone knows it. If you dont want to beleive it thats up to you. Personally I think it happens and I dont want to argue with you over the matter anymore.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/draw-no-joke-for-magpies-20111028-1moci.html

Of course it happens. Have a look at the link above which ranks the hardest to easiest draws ranked in 2012.

 

[mufassa]

There's nothing to argue about as the AFL say that they do it but it isn't absolute as they work it around scheduling blockbusters.

For example if say Collingwood finish out of the 8 and Essendon, Richmond and Carlton were in the top 4, then Collingwood could be seen to have a tough draw because they are guaranteed to play those teams twice every year, yet if say Port finish out of the 8, they will get the easiest draw as the only team i'm aware of they are guaranteed to play twice is Adelaide.

Richmond played Collingwood once in 2011 and will play them only once this year. Guaranteed to play each other is no guarantee......

 

[WCE_phil]

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/draw-no-joke-for-magpies-20111028-1moci.html

Of course it happens. Have a look at the link above which ranks the hardest to easiest draws ranked in 2012.

Interesting though if you were to take how travel heavily marks draws towards the scale of tougher rather than easier and remove it from the equation completely some of the interstate teams draws look much easier.

As far as comparing the last 2 years draws for the eagles when i first saw the 2010 draw for us i thought it was a very good draw for a team moving up the ladder but would be a very tough one for a poor team. (turns out we were a poor team and we copped it) This was because we had a lot of top teams at home and a lot of the weaker sides as our road trips. As a good side, particularly as an interstate side you should win almost all home games, even against very good opposition due to the advantages of a distinct home ground advantage, crowd and possible umpire influence and on the same token playing the weaker teams away means you're able to pick up some cheap wins away from home. We had a run where everything that could possibly go wrong did and only won 2 home games and 2 away games.

Now at the start of the 2011 season i looked at our draw as being a very good draw for a rebuilding/weak side but an average draw for a top side. Having to play hawthorn, collingwood, the dogs, carlton and essendon away from home would be very tough to win whether we were a strong or weak side and i had us pencilled down for losses in all of them even though i had us significantly improving and winning 8-14 games for the season. While as a weaker side having a few easy sides at home as well as the derbies always being a 50/50 prospect i saw quite a few home wins for an average side.

For 2012 i look at the draw and see a reasonable draw which is really only made difficult by having seven 6 day breaks. (i think this is completely unreasonable for an interstate side and particularly for a western australian side) I have us down for 6 wins away from home (with a possible away win scale between 4 and 8) with 8 wins at home. (with as low as 7 and a max of 10) So it stands i think the eagles will lose at home once to the dockers with possible losses to carlton, sydney, collingwood and st kilda as well. As for games away from home i have us down for losses against hawthorn (although this could be close as i think we match up well on them), collingwood and essendon as well as possible away losses to losses to the dogs, north and port. (call me crazy on the call of us possibly losing to port but along with essendon and carlton they are real bogie sides for us even when doing well)