2013 AFL Power Rankings

[daniel_4tw]

Interesting to hear your thoughts on Port Roby. They have beaten 3rd, 6th and 7th on your rankings, yet you have them ranked below Saints who have beaten 3 teams (18th, 17th and 9th).

I know you take more into account than just win/loss, just wondering what these are in Port's case as I thought they were the better team against both Sydney and Collingwood.

 

[mHmmm]

Out of curiosity Roby have you considered working out how PED use can affect the match ups and chance of winning for a certain team?

 

[Blacky]

Out of curiosity Roby have you considered working out how PED use can affect the match ups and chance of winning for a certain team?

I'd estimate about a five goal swing in the last quarter

 

[The Dice Man]

Update please Roby. I hate waking up monday morning and not getting the offical standings.

 

[Roby]

Interesting to hear your thoughts on Port Roby. They have beaten 3rd, 6th and 7th on your rankings, yet you have them ranked below Saints who have beaten 3 teams (18th, 17th and 9th).

I know you take more into account than just win/loss, just wondering what these are in Port's case as I thought they were the better team against both Sydney and Collingwood.

I'll post about Port this week I'll quickly say they gained a massive amount of points this week, they lost a lot of points around their five game losing streak and have a lot of catching up to do. Also check the mid-season weighting, results aren't everything.

Out of curiosity Roby have you considered working out how PED use can affect the match ups and chance of winning for a certain team?

It will be mentioned in the post.

Update please Roby. I hate waking up monday morning and not getting the offical standings.

The rankings were up last night at, check the OP.

 

[SuperSub17]

Roby in the OP, Collingwood are listed as 7th (-1), while Adelaide are 6th (-). How is this possible? Were they both 6th last week?

 

[doppleganger]

Going to be putting a Geelong v Hawthorn GF quinella bet this week Roby? The rankings suggest you should.

StKilda leapfrogging Port must be ur usual attention seeking.

 

[Stewart2Austin Reborn]

So...

St Kilda (14) lose by 64 ponts to Richmond (5) and move up two spots while Port beat Sydney (3) and Collingwood (7) and don't move at all?

Plz explain Robes

 

[Eshay187]

So...

St Kilda (14) lose by 64 ponts to Richmond (5) and move up two spots while Port beat Sydney (3) and Collingwood (7) and don't move at all?

Plz explain Robes

The result isn't what he looks at.

*edit: for the record I think Port are a great team who my completely subjective ranking system (my gut) would put a lot higher than Roby's.

 

[Roby]

Booooooo: Geelong on a mission to greater greatness

Geelong (1st) stepped up to another level on the weekend, catapulting them to first in the power rankings. Last time they were ranked first was back in round three 2012, but even then they did not hold such a point gap over the second ranked team. The last time a team had such an advantage was Hawthorn (2nd) last year in the first week of the finals. If Geelong were to win it this year, it would rival Hawthorn’s era of the 80’s (when the Hawks managed to make eight grand finals in nine years, including five premierships) and cement the turn of the century Cats as one of - if not -the best of all time.

Hawthorn the Challenger: investment grade or junk bond?

Despite Hawthorn’s club equalling 12 game winning streak, in their last 10 weeks they have continually lost ranking points except during their thrashing of Sydney (3rd) back in round seven. Their win streak means they are the clear form team in the competition, but as stated many times it’s not just about the win/loss. Winning is great if you are continually dominating like Essendon did in 2000 but can also work against a team if they are just doing enough each week. That indicates a good run for a good consistent team but not necessarily a great team. In a way, the pressure will mount up for the Hawks in the pointy end of the season and they don’t want to drop their first game in September.

The streak ends diabolically

All good things must come to an end; unfortunately for Fremantle (4th) their spot on top of the rankings only lasted for two weeks. Fremantle’s key outs was not a legitimate excuse, Geelong’s outs were calculated to be more significant for starters. What was significant was that Fremantle had a massive opportunity to secure second spot and gain further momentum as they went on a nine game unbeaten streak, while in the process sending the Cats to their second consecutive loss right in front of their supporters. In a sense it was like a mini-preliminary final but Fremantle scored their lowest competitive score of the season: 6. Almost half that of their 11 score against Hawthorn back in round four – Fremantle in one week went from second down to the fourth most competitive side in the competition. This is the second time ever the top ranked team has dropped three spots in one week, last time it occurred was when the Hawks back in round 4 last year were beaten comprehensively by the Swans (3rd). Another positive omen for Cats supporters?

Essendon performance dehancing and ASADA

Essendon (8th) move down one position because of a lack of performance against a team they should’ve beaten comfortably. The Eagles (11th) are a walking wounded and in really poor form, having only beaten North (12th) and Dogs (16th) this year at Paterson, and yet Essendon only just managed to get over the line.

The AFL has come out and said today that Essendon may lose premiership points if found guilty in regards to the ASADA investigations. My opinion on what will happen or how it should be dealt is irrelevant, but if the scenario were to arise were Essendon (or any team for that matter) were stripped of premiership points for the use of PED, then it would have no affect on ranking points. The rankings are not an arbiter of morality and will remain objective; therefore, in this case, Essendon will continue to gain/lose rankings points even if they are zero chance of playing finals. The power rankings are a measure of performance and if points are stripped it's not the rankings fault. That’s all I’ll say on the matter. There is a whole board dedicated toAFL, ASADA and Drugs, so go post it there.

Do the rakings hate Port Adelaide?

The rankings do not hate anyone despite claims of this early in the year against North but now everyone is quiet as a mouse as expected. Port (15th) gained a massive number of points after beating the Pies (7th), but not enough to move up. They still rank as the second luckiest team this year and people easily forget how bad they were last year. In fact only three weeks ago they were on a five game losing streak and this despite been the most favoured team by umpires and one of the healthiest lists in the competition. They’re also the last team to lose to GWS (17th) who are currently on a 17 game losing streak.

World Record Umpire Discrepancy

The Saints (14th) were on the end of the worst umpire discrepancy in rankings history (which equals the record in the Hawks-Eagles game the previous week) and in effect the game against Richmond (5th) should’ve been very close. The Saints go back up two spots this week because of it.

Rankings Round 14:

1 Geelong (+2)
2 Hawthorn (-)
3 Sydney (+1)
4 Fremantle (-3)
5 Richmond (-)
6 Adelaide (+2)
7 Collingwood (-1)
8 Essendon (-1)
9 Carlton (-)
10 Gold Coast (-)
11 West Coast (-)
12 Kangaroos (-)
13 Brisbane (-)
14 St Kilda (+2)
15 Port Adelaide (-)
16 Bulldogs (-2)
17 GWS (-)
18 Melbourne (-)




Best ROI for the year

Last week six of the eight tips came up, and the best return of any week this year. Despite bettering the betting lines on 51.5% of tips in 2013, the current stake loss for the year is still at 33%. Will also now put $1 on the Geelong/Hawthorn Grand Final quinella withSportsbet @ $5.

Current fund: $15.37
Staked for 2013: $23.01

Tips: 84/117


Predicted Best Matches for Round 15

Match of the Round

Geelong (1st) vs Hawthorn (2nd)

First time this year the top two ranked sides play against each other and naturally the MOTR; then again any fool knows there is high chance this game will be come down to final whistle yet again. The kennet-curse right now is weighted heavily but Hawthorn’s form is worth double that. Current prediction is Hawthorn by 11 points, but the Cats won’t lose their number one ranking position unless they lose to Hawks by more than 40. On the other hand Geelong could end Hawthorn’s premiership chance right here and now.

Carlton (9th) vs Collingwood (7th)

This would've been the MOTR any other round and it’s also predicted to be the closest game: Blues by 2 points. Carlton is like the rankings litmus test to see if you’re a top team or not. Carlton has only lost games to teams above them in the rankings, except once against St Kilda, but in that game Carlton had the worst run of in-game injuries of any team this year and would’ve had easily won otherwise. They’ve also only won all their games to teams below them in the rankings. So it’s a simple equation: Collingwood win, they’re good, if not, they’re bad. Malthouse awaits.

Kangaroos (12th) vs Tigers (5th)

Despite their respective ranking positions, this game is predicted to be a close affair with Richmond having the edge. North are still a slight chance of making finals and what better way to do it then beat up on everyone’s favourite newborn baby. Expect the jealousy to be strong in this one but the Tiger pride will get them over the line.


Interesting match-ups


Essendon (8th) vs Port Adelaide (15th)

One must wonder what is fuelling this upsurgeance in form, it’s like their on… anyway Essendon should be too strong for Port this week but if they can get close enough they may still move up a spot or two.

Adelaide (6th) vs West Coast (11th)

Battle of the Umpires. Well, based on this year results there should only be one winner of umpiring in this match. The Crows are the least favoured (at -14 ppg) and the Eagles the most favoured (at +9 ppg) so far this year. So there should be a 23 point advantage to the Eagles in this game in weighted decisions, but of course it doesn’t work like that. Hopefully the Crows get a massive advantage and square the ledger just a little and then they can win by the current predicted margin of 41 points.

Syndey (3rd) vs Melbourne (18th)

Remember how two weeks ago it was stated the Brisbane v Cats match would be a danger game? Another has popped up and before you poop your pants out delight or shock, the Dees under Neil Craig is a good proposition, so much that in two weeks they have gained more ranking points than any total gains through the year under Neeld. In fact, in their last 20 matches under Neeld, the Dees beat the expected betting lines only six times. They’re now two from two in the last fortnight in beating betting lines. Swans you’ve been warned.


Last week’s rankings

 

[Eshay187]

Swans you’ve been warned.

Cheers Roby

 

[Mantastic]

Ahh back on top of the world.

 

[Richo83]

Roby how much is Richmond's points increase from the match impacted by their umpiring assisted win?

 

[Eshay187]

I feel like umpiring may have too greater weighting in your model given you've mentioned multiple games where it has caused 50 - 90 point differences in result and always seems a major factor with teams sliding around the table.

 

[Roby]

Roby how much is Richmond's points increase from the match impacted by their umpiring assisted win?

Nearly all of it. It happens, I wish it wasn't so but unfortunately that is the way umpiring is. Financially speaking, it meant a massive swing towards profit.

In any case, Richmond still has 13% more points than the Crows right now.

I feel like umpiring may have too greater weighting in your model given you've mentioned multiple games where it has caused 50 - 90 point differences in result and always seems a major factor with teams sliding around the table.

I'll have a look at it again at the end of the year but is essentially the same one used in the last three years with only minor changes each year.

 

[Richo83]

Nearly all of it. It happens, I wish it wasn't so but unfortunately that is the way umpiring is. Financially speaking, it meant a massive swing towards profit.

In any case, Richmond still has 13% more points than the Crows right now.

Do you think the umpires decided the result, if the umpiring had have been even to both sides, what would the margin be?

 

[Eshay187]

Have you factored PEDs into Essendons ability to finish off games strongly? Namely with some kind of "endurance" bonus?

 

[Roby]

Do you think the umpires decided the result, if the umpiring had have been even to both sides, what would the margin be?

No, but it was a record discrepancy of 48 points. Remember this is the record and it's never this large. The theoretical margin should've been 16 points to Richmond and the rankings original predicted margin and tip of 61 points was incorrect.

You'd be surprised how many times I rewind decisions as I am in utter disbelief at discrepancy, you start to think there is match-fixing, but it just bad luck.

Have you factored PEDs into Essendons ability to finish off games strongly? Namely with some kind of "endurance" bonus?

Well the Swans aren't factored an additional 9.8% of points every year, so no.

 

[Eshay187]

Well the Swans aren't factored an additional 9.8% of points every year, so no.

Now now Roby, I know that you're a Swans hater (and it shows in every subjective category in your tables) but if you're truly a man of numbers I thought you'd be in the "increase the COLA" crowd.

 

[god of purple]

Sorry am I reading this right: Port 15th?????? Adel 6th????? I'm so confused.....

 

[floki]

Well the Swans aren't factored an additional 9.8% of points every year, so no.

Now now Roby, I know that you're a Swans hater (and it shows in every subjective category in your tables) but if you're truly a man of numbers I thought you'd be in the "increase the COLA" crowd.

Actually in order to remove the administrative AFL corruption inherent in the system and to achieve purity in the calculus shouldn't both GWS and the Swans be subjected to a 9.8% subtraction across the tables?






ps- still gutted i think we're ****ed

 

[Holy Rioli]

So...

St Kilda (14) lose by 64 ponts to Richmond (5) and move up two spots while Port beat Sydney (3) and Collingwood (7) and don't move at all?

Plz explain Robes

I actually enjoy this thread Roby and most of the time you make some sort of sense...but I am completely baffled by this one....

 

[Slax]

I jsut love looking at this each week and laugh at the fact the basic fundamentals of the system are so completely flawed that it makes the whole structure a joke.
Port 9 spots behind the Crows?
Port below St Kilda? Sorry Roby but this takes the cake to prove you have a massive problem.

 

[Hoffy95]

Predicted Best Matches for Round 15

Match of the Round

Geelong (1st) vs Hawthorn (2nd)

First time this year the top two ranked sides play against each other and naturally the MOTR; then again any fool knows there is high chance this game will be come down to final whistle yet again. The kennet-curse right now is weighted heavily but Hawthorn’s form is worth double that. Current prediction is Hawthorn by 11 points, but the Cats won’t lose their number one ranking position unless they lose to Hawks by more than 40. On the other hand Geelong could end Hawthorn’s premiership chance right here and now.

I'll just be happy to lose by under 40.

 

[Richo83]

No, but it was a record discrepancy of 48 points. Remember this is the record and it's never this large. The theoretical margin should've been 16 points to Richmond and the rankings original predicted margin and tip of 61 points was incorrect.

You'd be surprised how many times I rewind decisions as I am in utter disbelief at discrepancy, you start to think there is match-fixing, but it just bad luck.

Can you remember specifically some of the calls which added up to 48 points?