The real question is - did GWS do enough in the bye round to move above Port?
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2013 AFL Power Rankings
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Power Rankings round 13 - Tigers are scary
Not since the 70’s has a Richmond (5th) team soared as high and looked as ominous as this. They are now almost equal on points with last year’s premiers, and if they continue to play well they are a good chance of finishing as high as 2nd in the rankings in 2013, and they are even a remote chance of topping the rankings; unbelievable.
The Bye strikes again
The warning was put up a fortnight ago, and while two weeks ago it seemed inconsequential, it was only asleep as it unleashed hell on top ranked teams like Sydney (4th) and Geelong (3rd). In fact every team this week coming off the bye lost. Don’t be fooled a second time.
Diametrically opposed twins
Most coaches know it’s about the power rankings and not the win/loos or the ladder position. Chris Scott said not long ago he would rather be losing and playing well than be 8-1 and playing poorly. The loss on the weekend showed his ability to foreshadow their inability this year to kill teams off. They rank 15th on the WCT as they have only closed the game off once this year against Port before the final whistle.
On the other hand you have Delusional Brad who thinks everything is rainbows and lollipops. Brad pointed out that if they had Fremantle’s defence and with their attack, they would be a very good team. I’m sure Ross Lyon would love to have the injury list that North has had the last two years, the umpire favouritism and an older, more experienced team on the weekend. Not long now Ross. And if only Brad kept checking the rankings he would realise his team has never been higher than in 12th position this year. Not long now Brad.
Rankings Round 13:
1 Fremantle (-)
2 Hawthorn (-)
3 Geelong (-)
4 Sydney (-)
5 Richmond (-)
6 Collingwood (-)
7 Essendon (-)
8 Adelaide (-)
9 Carlton (-)
10 Gold Coast (-)
11 West Coast (-)
12 Kangaroos (-)
13 Brisbane (+1)
14 Bulldogs (-1)
15 Port Adelaide (+1)
16 St Kilda (-1)
17 GWS (-)
18 Melbourne (-)
Stick to your guns
Despite prognostic hallucinations of complete bankruptcy, the rankings made profit last week. This is the second time rankings have made profit in the last three weeks and it appears the Great Recession of rnd 8-10 is well and truly behind. Losses are now back at 49% for the year.
Last week's tips: here and here.
The season that keeps on giving (good or scandalous)
It was predicted that the last round may have been a snooze fest but this is the reason why I love my job. Seeing the Cats and Sydney lose was better than watching Hawthorn go a game record winning streak on a Friday night. And round 14 should hopefully live up to expectation.
Predicted Best Matches
Match of the round
Eagles (11th) vs Essendon (7th)
Purely because this match is on a Thursday night, well, not really. The Dons are expected to get up by just a few goals and a lot will depend on how many Eagles come up for this important clash. A loss here makes it very difficult for the Eagles to make finals, meanwhile a loss to the Bombers will mean goodnight top four. And of course there is that unquantifiable pesky Bye lurking, stalking and ready to pounce.
Port (15th) vs Collingwood (6th)
Under normal circumstances this would be a comfortable Pies win. But the Pies are wounded, coming off the bye and are playing a team at their home ground back in form after having beaten last year’s premiers, something the Pies couldn’t do. Current prediction: Pies 10 points.
Suns (10th) vs Crows (8th)
Both teams come into this encounter with possibly different expectations for the season but the rankings suggest there is very little difference between these two teams. Regardless, it’s a must win game as the loser is out of finals contention. Should be a close game and the Crows should get up but…
Interesting encounters
Sydney (4th) vs Carlton (9th)
Did someone just turn up the heat? I don’t know which phone will end up being broken first but I’m guessing that both Longmire and Malthouse will be doing some coachbox-raging. The reigning premiers donot want to lose for a second consecutive week to the Blues who only beat middle road teams. And a Carlton loss will mean that Mick with a far healthier list has done no better than Ratten at this same time last year. Wow. This should be a predicted best match but Swans are expected to win comfortably.
Geelong (3rd) vs Fremantle (1st)
This is the kind of match which showcases the power of the rankings. Despite Geelong considered clear favourites for this game, the Dockers are expected to win easily. The Dockers have beaten the betting lines eight times this season (66% of time) the equal most this season. Prepare for the Docker anchor to be dropped on your head and blow your mind into subatomic particles.
Melbourne (18th) vs Bulldogs (14th)
As Melbourne move closer off the bottom, the Dogs move back down the rankings. This week the Dees gained points and the rankings suggest that Neil Craig is the ideal candidate. Good possibility for the Dees to be off the bottom of the rankings for the first time this year, but more importantly Craig has commenced the rebuild, finally.
Last week's rankings.
Not since the 70’s has a Richmond (5th) team soared as high and looked as ominous as this. They are now almost equal on points with last year’s premiers, and if they continue to play well they are a good chance of finishing as high as 2nd in the rankings in 2013, and they are even a remote chance of topping the rankings; unbelievable.
The Bye strikes again
The warning was put up a fortnight ago, and while two weeks ago it seemed inconsequential, it was only asleep as it unleashed hell on top ranked teams like Sydney (4th) and Geelong (3rd). In fact every team this week coming off the bye lost. Don’t be fooled a second time.
Diametrically opposed twins
Most coaches know it’s about the power rankings and not the win/loos or the ladder position. Chris Scott said not long ago he would rather be losing and playing well than be 8-1 and playing poorly. The loss on the weekend showed his ability to foreshadow their inability this year to kill teams off. They rank 15th on the WCT as they have only closed the game off once this year against Port before the final whistle.
On the other hand you have Delusional Brad who thinks everything is rainbows and lollipops. Brad pointed out that if they had Fremantle’s defence and with their attack, they would be a very good team. I’m sure Ross Lyon would love to have the injury list that North has had the last two years, the umpire favouritism and an older, more experienced team on the weekend. Not long now Ross. And if only Brad kept checking the rankings he would realise his team has never been higher than in 12th position this year. Not long now Brad.
Rankings Round 13:
1 Fremantle (-)
2 Hawthorn (-)
3 Geelong (-)
4 Sydney (-)
5 Richmond (-)
6 Collingwood (-)
7 Essendon (-)
8 Adelaide (-)
9 Carlton (-)
10 Gold Coast (-)
11 West Coast (-)
12 Kangaroos (-)
13 Brisbane (+1)
14 Bulldogs (-1)
15 Port Adelaide (+1)
16 St Kilda (-1)
17 GWS (-)
18 Melbourne (-)
Stick to your guns
Despite prognostic hallucinations of complete bankruptcy, the rankings made profit last week. This is the second time rankings have made profit in the last three weeks and it appears the Great Recession of rnd 8-10 is well and truly behind. Losses are now back at 49% for the year.
Last week's tips: here and here.
The season that keeps on giving (good or scandalous)
It was predicted that the last round may have been a snooze fest but this is the reason why I love my job. Seeing the Cats and Sydney lose was better than watching Hawthorn go a game record winning streak on a Friday night. And round 14 should hopefully live up to expectation.
Predicted Best Matches
Match of the round
Eagles (11th) vs Essendon (7th)
Purely because this match is on a Thursday night, well, not really. The Dons are expected to get up by just a few goals and a lot will depend on how many Eagles come up for this important clash. A loss here makes it very difficult for the Eagles to make finals, meanwhile a loss to the Bombers will mean goodnight top four. And of course there is that unquantifiable pesky Bye lurking, stalking and ready to pounce.
Port (15th) vs Collingwood (6th)
Under normal circumstances this would be a comfortable Pies win. But the Pies are wounded, coming off the bye and are playing a team at their home ground back in form after having beaten last year’s premiers, something the Pies couldn’t do. Current prediction: Pies 10 points.
Suns (10th) vs Crows (8th)
Both teams come into this encounter with possibly different expectations for the season but the rankings suggest there is very little difference between these two teams. Regardless, it’s a must win game as the loser is out of finals contention. Should be a close game and the Crows should get up but…
Interesting encounters
Sydney (4th) vs Carlton (9th)
Did someone just turn up the heat? I don’t know which phone will end up being broken first but I’m guessing that both Longmire and Malthouse will be doing some coachbox-raging. The reigning premiers donot want to lose for a second consecutive week to the Blues who only beat middle road teams. And a Carlton loss will mean that Mick with a far healthier list has done no better than Ratten at this same time last year. Wow. This should be a predicted best match but Swans are expected to win comfortably.
Geelong (3rd) vs Fremantle (1st)
This is the kind of match which showcases the power of the rankings. Despite Geelong considered clear favourites for this game, the Dockers are expected to win easily. The Dockers have beaten the betting lines eight times this season (66% of time) the equal most this season. Prepare for the Docker anchor to be dropped on your head and blow your mind into subatomic particles.
Melbourne (18th) vs Bulldogs (14th)
As Melbourne move closer off the bottom, the Dogs move back down the rankings. This week the Dees gained points and the rankings suggest that Neil Craig is the ideal candidate. Good possibility for the Dees to be off the bottom of the rankings for the first time this year, but more importantly Craig has commenced the rebuild, finally.
Last week's rankings.
Despite Geelong considered clear favourites for this game, the Dockers are expected to win easily.
I love it
I love it
It's calculus, not english.
"Despite Geelong considered clear favourites by the public, media, betting, the Dockers are expected to win easily by the Power Rankings
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I try to keep the word count down and I thought it was implied. Calculus or not, one can formulate that the no.1 ranked team should be no.3 especially given Geelong's long injury list and poor form.
Oh and in regards to Hawthorn's cat.5, I just realised they have eight, add Birchall and Gibson to the list.
so what was different about the freo/north game that caused you to double up the stake? anything other than loss chasing?
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The line kept moving in the wrong direction.
This isn't the first time, last year when the line moved significantly I have posted tips up after Thursday ones.
I used to to do it more when I would watch more games live but these days I tend to watch a lot of games delayed. Yesterday the first game wasn't till late afternoon so there was plenty of time to get in before kick-off.
Stewart2Austin Reborn
Hour of Pessimism
- Jul 27, 2012
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Why isn't 1 v 3 one of the matches of the round?
Clear as mud.
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2 V 3
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Power Rankings Mid-Season Weightings
Just like last year, the mid-season weightings are up. This will show the reasoning behind the rankings positions as well show which teams have been penalised the most by umpires, had the worst injury run, who has been most and least competitive and who has been the most overrated/underrated.
Umpire table
Starting with the most controversial weighting. The way umpiring decisions are weighted is based on this order: the position on the ground, the score differential, the time in game and successive errors. For example, a decision that is incorrectly reversed in the goalsquare to the attacking team can be worth as much as four times as one in the back pocket to the defensive team.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
As you can see both GWS and Crows have had by far the worst runs. GWS have yet to lose a game due to umpiring because of their hefty losses, although in the Sydney and Essendon games it accounted for most of the margin.
Adelaide on the other hand have lost the most games of any team in the AFL due to umpiring this season which includes the games against Port, Carlton and Hawthorn, and accounted for most of the margin against Fremantle.
While there is perception that Eagles have had a good run, that is not far off as they are second last behind Port Adelaide. Ironically the game against Port the umpires cost the Eagles the four points. Port are true masters of the AFL umpires.
Injury table
Obviously there is an argument that suggests that some teams manage injuries better but part of that is resting players as well. It also means that blooding other players on the list adds depth and essentially important.
The table represents the weightings of outs before each game (including suspensions) in relation to the opponent. The players are weighted in regards to their ability, whether they are key, positional or role player and their statistical Champion Data averages in relation to their position. The more players injured from a certain department eg., defence, ruck, forward, midfield, the higher the weighting increases.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
Fremantle and the Pies have had the worst run in relation to their opponents this year, with the Eagles and Geelong not far off. Fremantle may not have had the biggest injury list but they've been hurt by star players out for long periods of time and been hurt in the ruck and forward departments.
The glaring thing in this table is the Roos. They clearly had a good run (just like last year) with a massive 13 point advantage per game this year in relation to their opponent. You may be surprised to see the Dons down low but this year their injury list has been much better and their depth usually covers any outs.
In-game injuries
This table is exactly what the title says. It take into account when the player is injured, (taking into account lower rotations) and the player(s) injured. Naitanui going down injured in a game is worth a lot more than Shepperd. As would losing Naitanui and Cox in the same game is compounded as compared to losing a mid and a forward.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
Suns can't take a break this year during games, which makes their season even more impressive considering. As per usual in another table, Port has been blessed this year and are way down the bottom again.
Total injury table
This table represents the injury and in-game injuries accumulated weightings.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
As you can see the Suns have huge scope for improvement and the outs have created depth for the coming years. Eagles, Pies, Cats and Freo obviously are strong teams and the outs confirm this.
Unlucky Table (not so unlucky)
This weights all injuries and umpiring weightings into one table and essentially the most important table to see which teams have the biggest scope for improvement not taking into consideration age or experience.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
As mentioned in a previous thread, the Suns are projected to make finals next year if you also take into account the increase in maturity for the list. Even so, this year the Suns should be a 14 pt better team than their current results and the reason why the rankings are not surprised with their recent form. Obviously GWS will improve a fair bit as well, but most interestingly is Freo and the Cats up high. Be worried if things start going their way.
On the bottom you can see Port and Roos. The Roos sit in the bottom half of the AFL ladder with a massive 21 point advantage per game. This is the reason why they have never ranked higher than 12th and given this is their ceiling, why they are far from the premiership.
Port on the other hand are young team so they have an excuse, regardless, they're no where near a premiership right now.
Just like last year, the mid-season weightings are up. This will show the reasoning behind the rankings positions as well show which teams have been penalised the most by umpires, had the worst injury run, who has been most and least competitive and who has been the most overrated/underrated.
Umpire table
Starting with the most controversial weighting. The way umpiring decisions are weighted is based on this order: the position on the ground, the score differential, the time in game and successive errors. For example, a decision that is incorrectly reversed in the goalsquare to the attacking team can be worth as much as four times as one in the back pocket to the defensive team.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
As you can see both GWS and Crows have had by far the worst runs. GWS have yet to lose a game due to umpiring because of their hefty losses, although in the Sydney and Essendon games it accounted for most of the margin.
Adelaide on the other hand have lost the most games of any team in the AFL due to umpiring this season which includes the games against Port, Carlton and Hawthorn, and accounted for most of the margin against Fremantle.
While there is perception that Eagles have had a good run, that is not far off as they are second last behind Port Adelaide. Ironically the game against Port the umpires cost the Eagles the four points. Port are true masters of the AFL umpires.
Injury table
Obviously there is an argument that suggests that some teams manage injuries better but part of that is resting players as well. It also means that blooding other players on the list adds depth and essentially important.
The table represents the weightings of outs before each game (including suspensions) in relation to the opponent. The players are weighted in regards to their ability, whether they are key, positional or role player and their statistical Champion Data averages in relation to their position. The more players injured from a certain department eg., defence, ruck, forward, midfield, the higher the weighting increases.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
Fremantle and the Pies have had the worst run in relation to their opponents this year, with the Eagles and Geelong not far off. Fremantle may not have had the biggest injury list but they've been hurt by star players out for long periods of time and been hurt in the ruck and forward departments.
The glaring thing in this table is the Roos. They clearly had a good run (just like last year) with a massive 13 point advantage per game this year in relation to their opponent. You may be surprised to see the Dons down low but this year their injury list has been much better and their depth usually covers any outs.
In-game injuries
This table is exactly what the title says. It take into account when the player is injured, (taking into account lower rotations) and the player(s) injured. Naitanui going down injured in a game is worth a lot more than Shepperd. As would losing Naitanui and Cox in the same game is compounded as compared to losing a mid and a forward.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
Suns can't take a break this year during games, which makes their season even more impressive considering. As per usual in another table, Port has been blessed this year and are way down the bottom again.
Total injury table
This table represents the injury and in-game injuries accumulated weightings.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
As you can see the Suns have huge scope for improvement and the outs have created depth for the coming years. Eagles, Pies, Cats and Freo obviously are strong teams and the outs confirm this.
Unlucky Table (not so unlucky)
This weights all injuries and umpiring weightings into one table and essentially the most important table to see which teams have the biggest scope for improvement not taking into consideration age or experience.
(Least favoured from the top; weightings rounded to 0.5 goal increments)
As mentioned in a previous thread, the Suns are projected to make finals next year if you also take into account the increase in maturity for the list. Even so, this year the Suns should be a 14 pt better team than their current results and the reason why the rankings are not surprised with their recent form. Obviously GWS will improve a fair bit as well, but most interestingly is Freo and the Cats up high. Be worried if things start going their way.
On the bottom you can see Port and Roos. The Roos sit in the bottom half of the AFL ladder with a massive 21 point advantage per game. This is the reason why they have never ranked higher than 12th and given this is their ceiling, why they are far from the premiership.
Port on the other hand are young team so they have an excuse, regardless, they're no where near a premiership right now.
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(Continued)
Overall competitiveness table
The OCT measures how competitive a team remains throughout the course of the game. It's important to know when teams are taking their foot off the pedal and when they are going full throttle rather than just looking at the margin. The WCT measures the average competitiveness in the wins and LCT the average for the losses.
The highest possible score a team can get for competitiveness is 41, while a the lowest possible score is 0 - this happened twice this year. Every game has a total score of 41 between the two teams.
(Best from the top; weightings rounded to two decimal places)
Obviously the Hawks with only one loss are going to have a high score. Interestingly the Tigers are ranked 3rd overall above Swans and Cats. Richmond have shown to be really ruthless in putting teams away this year while still remaining fairly competitive in their losses.
Interestingly the Roos rank 9th but because of their good run you'd expect them to be even more competitive. Conversely the Suns rank 14th on the OCT but because of their bad run that is understandable. The Dees score of 8 shows how extremely uncompetitve they've been this year, as low as GWS in their first year.
The Underrated
The final table shows how often a team has beaten the betting line (Sportsbet) on a Thursday when the teams are out. Obviously the betting lines formulate the general weight of opinion and shows how often a team has over or underperformed due to this expectation.
Port has obviously been underrated coming into season, while it will be interesting to see how long Fremantle will continue to be underrated. Interestingly last year both Grand Finalist topped this table at the end of the home and away rounds.
Collingwood each year are continually are on the bottom of this table and I suspect it's due to their high supporter base.
Overall competitiveness table
The OCT measures how competitive a team remains throughout the course of the game. It's important to know when teams are taking their foot off the pedal and when they are going full throttle rather than just looking at the margin. The WCT measures the average competitiveness in the wins and LCT the average for the losses.
The highest possible score a team can get for competitiveness is 41, while a the lowest possible score is 0 - this happened twice this year. Every game has a total score of 41 between the two teams.
(Best from the top; weightings rounded to two decimal places)
Obviously the Hawks with only one loss are going to have a high score. Interestingly the Tigers are ranked 3rd overall above Swans and Cats. Richmond have shown to be really ruthless in putting teams away this year while still remaining fairly competitive in their losses.
Interestingly the Roos rank 9th but because of their good run you'd expect them to be even more competitive. Conversely the Suns rank 14th on the OCT but because of their bad run that is understandable. The Dees score of 8 shows how extremely uncompetitve they've been this year, as low as GWS in their first year.
The Underrated
The final table shows how often a team has beaten the betting line (Sportsbet) on a Thursday when the teams are out. Obviously the betting lines formulate the general weight of opinion and shows how often a team has over or underperformed due to this expectation.
Port has obviously been underrated coming into season, while it will be interesting to see how long Fremantle will continue to be underrated. Interestingly last year both Grand Finalist topped this table at the end of the home and away rounds.
Collingwood each year are continually are on the bottom of this table and I suspect it's due to their high supporter base.
You have openly stated on numerous occasions that your rankings are related to winning the premiership, they are not a who is hot right now style ranking.
You are yet to illustrate how a premiership ranking model has any correlation to a weekly punting recommendation, and often have commented when people have pointed out you are tipping a higher ranked team to lose, that it is not about the weekly punt.
The fact you model is running at a loss should give you hint that you need to evaluate your model, as what may have once worked....is no longer appropriate.
- Oct 29, 2012
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lrn2calculus please. Roby's rankings are perfect. As evidenced by Hawthorn never leaving top 2.
- Aug 20, 2010
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Anyone else not able to see the tables? I'm using Chrome, I wouldn't expect any problems with this browser.
Edit: Just opened up in the old IE and it works. Not sure why it won't show the tables in Chrome...
Edit: Just opened up in the old IE and it works. Not sure why it won't show the tables in Chrome...
- Aug 20, 2010
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Funniest part is right here: West Coast Eagles are the most over rated team in the comp - or at least they were, I think people have finally come to their senses
Dagless
Hall of Famer
Funniest part is right here: West Coast Eagles are the most over rated team in the comp - or at least they were, I think people have finally come to their senses
Roby you found a fan.
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Funniest part is right here: West Coast Eagles are the most over rated team in the comp - or at least they were, I think people have finally come to their senses
Well last year Eagles finished equal 5th most underrated, beating more than half the lines.
That been said, Fremantle were equal 3rd last year and are currently without question the most underrated of the last two years. In fact, in their last 24 matches Freo have beaten the lines on 18 occasions, 75% of time. The next best in that time is the Suns at 64%.
I'd say it's a little bit worrying but not overly. The Suns in 2012 performed under expectations more than half the time. The Sun's last two months in 2012 were really good, I think it's best to judge GWS on how they finish off the year to be fair.
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Fremantle vs Hawthorn now appears as the most likely Grand Final. Despite the highly intelligent Doppledanger illustrating that the model is no longer function, the rankings are still gong to put $1 on Hawks-Freo GF quinella with Sportsbet who are offering best odds at $9 still.
Right now the bookmakers have come in line with rankings as per usual, Fremantle as gone in from $17 a few weeks ago, to $9 last week and now are are $7.5 with some offering less than $6.
Expect Fremantle to be the second best premiership favourite after they beat Geelong on the weekend.
Right now the bookmakers have come in line with rankings as per usual, Fremantle as gone in from $17 a few weeks ago, to $9 last week and now are are $7.5 with some offering less than $6.
Expect Fremantle to be the second best premiership favourite after they beat Geelong on the weekend.
Haw and Freo have been top two in your power rankings since rd 10, ie the teams you think are the best premiership chances.
What has changed since rd 10 that has seen you pounce with a GF quinella bet now?
Why not at Rd10 when the value was much greater and your rankings first selected Freo and Haw as top two?
What has changed since rd 10 that has seen you pounce with a GF quinella bet now?
Why not at Rd10 when the value was much greater and your rankings first selected Freo and Haw as top two?
I've been working on my own rankings system since the start of the season, and spent a fair bit of time making adjustments throughout the season to get it right. I thought I would put it in this thread, as it's not controversial enough to get attention in its own thread.
Unlike Roby's rankings, these are purely statistical - there are no subjective judgements made on each game (e.g. umpiring, injuries, betting markets, etc.). I gave each team a rating of 100 points at the start of 2010 (when Gold Coast and GWS entered the league they started on 50 points), and ratings are adjusted using a formula after each game (this takes into account probability of winning, the margin, home ground advantage, whether it is a high or low scoring game, etc.).
Using one of this week's games as an example, the ratings predict that North Melbourne have roughly a 90% probability of beating GWS, with a predicted margin of 60 points. If NM win by 60 points, their rating will go up roughly half a point, and GWS will go down half a point (i.e. not very much). If NM win by 100 points they gain 3.7 points (GWS lose 3.7). If they win by only 10 points NM actually lose 3.7 points. If GWS win by 10 points they will gain 8.6 points (NM lose 8.6).
In contrast, West Coast and Essendon are almost even money (probability of winning is 50%, which takes into account WCE have the home ground advantage, and a predicted margin of 0). If either team wins by 1 point they will gain 2 points to their rating (and the other team will lose 2 points). However, if one team wins by 50 points they gain 5 ratings points.
At the (just over) half way point of the season, the teams are rated as follows:
On a neutral venue, Hawthorn would have roughly a 65% chance of beating Fremantle, a 78% chance of beating North Melbourne, and an 83% chance of beating St Kilda, according to the above ratings (it is the difference in points that determines probability of winning).
As much as I disagree with the subjective nature of Roby's rankings, it is curious that Richmond are rated highly on both (although there is little separating RIC, GEE, SYD and ESS), although the main reason they are third is due to a sudden fall in both Geelong and Sydney's rating.
I also use these rankings to simulate the final ladder - HAW and GEE make the top four about 80% of the time, and the top four typically consists of three of HAW, GEE, FRE and SYD (occasionally ESS, RIC or COL make the top four, but it is highly unlikely that any other team will finish in the top four). Thus, despite Richmond's high rating, they have probably lost too many early games to give the top four a real crack.
I also calculate the betting odds for each game (this doesn't take into account the bookie's percentage). For round 14:
WCE: $2.00, ESS: $2.00
SYD: $1.37, CAR: $3.74
GC: $1.83, ADE: $2.20
PA: $2.28, COL: $1.78
MEL: $5.06, WB: $1.25
GEE: $1.55, FRE: $2.83
HAW: $1.20, BL: $6.05
NM: $1.13, GWS: $8.72
RIC: $1.25, SK: $5.02
Curious to hear your thoughts, Roby, and how much these figures differ to yours.
Unlike Roby's rankings, these are purely statistical - there are no subjective judgements made on each game (e.g. umpiring, injuries, betting markets, etc.). I gave each team a rating of 100 points at the start of 2010 (when Gold Coast and GWS entered the league they started on 50 points), and ratings are adjusted using a formula after each game (this takes into account probability of winning, the margin, home ground advantage, whether it is a high or low scoring game, etc.).
Using one of this week's games as an example, the ratings predict that North Melbourne have roughly a 90% probability of beating GWS, with a predicted margin of 60 points. If NM win by 60 points, their rating will go up roughly half a point, and GWS will go down half a point (i.e. not very much). If NM win by 100 points they gain 3.7 points (GWS lose 3.7). If they win by only 10 points NM actually lose 3.7 points. If GWS win by 10 points they will gain 8.6 points (NM lose 8.6).
In contrast, West Coast and Essendon are almost even money (probability of winning is 50%, which takes into account WCE have the home ground advantage, and a predicted margin of 0). If either team wins by 1 point they will gain 2 points to their rating (and the other team will lose 2 points). However, if one team wins by 50 points they gain 5 ratings points.
At the (just over) half way point of the season, the teams are rated as follows:
On a neutral venue, Hawthorn would have roughly a 65% chance of beating Fremantle, a 78% chance of beating North Melbourne, and an 83% chance of beating St Kilda, according to the above ratings (it is the difference in points that determines probability of winning).
As much as I disagree with the subjective nature of Roby's rankings, it is curious that Richmond are rated highly on both (although there is little separating RIC, GEE, SYD and ESS), although the main reason they are third is due to a sudden fall in both Geelong and Sydney's rating.
I also use these rankings to simulate the final ladder - HAW and GEE make the top four about 80% of the time, and the top four typically consists of three of HAW, GEE, FRE and SYD (occasionally ESS, RIC or COL make the top four, but it is highly unlikely that any other team will finish in the top four). Thus, despite Richmond's high rating, they have probably lost too many early games to give the top four a real crack.
I also calculate the betting odds for each game (this doesn't take into account the bookie's percentage). For round 14:
WCE: $2.00, ESS: $2.00
SYD: $1.37, CAR: $3.74
GC: $1.83, ADE: $2.20
PA: $2.28, COL: $1.78
MEL: $5.06, WB: $1.25
GEE: $1.55, FRE: $2.83
HAW: $1.20, BL: $6.05
NM: $1.13, GWS: $8.72
RIC: $1.25, SK: $5.02
Curious to hear your thoughts, Roby, and how much these figures differ to yours.
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