2014 Brownlow Medal

Remove this Banner Ad

terminators said:
You need to understand why Gray has been a non-poller. Small fwds don't poll but this year he's a mid, totally different situation.

Sure he'll have the usual handicap early in the year of "being noticed" as a breakout player but he's not really a player you can you history with to suggest how he'll poll this year
Click to expand...
cool,point taken
 

Log in to remove this ad.

Duritz said:
Does anyone think gray finishes outside the top 5?
Click to expand...
Yes, IMHO he will finish on 15 votes. Had a good look at him yesterday and noticed that he argued with the ump on each of the three occasions he gave a way a free kick. I might be right off the mark but as an ex-umpire you DO remember these things.
 
CamTinley said:
Yes, IMHO he will finish on 15 votes. Had a good look at him yesterday and noticed that he argued with the ump on each of the three occasions he gave a way a free kick. I might be right off the mark but as an ex-umpire you DO remember these things.
Click to expand...

Yep. In the final last week an umpire warned him to stop diving for frees too. It's even more relevant for Gray as he is relying on votes where he was not a clear choice and there were others in the mix for votes
 
Thedeftouch said:
Here's how Robbie Gray will win the Brownlow.

Five rounds in and the big two (Ablett and Selwood) are off to a strong start. Ablett is on 9 votes after polling the maximum in rounds one, three and five. Selwood is on 10 after getting three votes in rounds one and three, as well as two votes in rounds two and four (both behind Stevie J). And it’s in round five that Robbie Gray gets off the mark, with two votes against the Eagles, behind Brad Ebert.

Round six and Ablett is recognised for another B.O.G. against GWS. Selwood and Gray square off in the Cats/Power match. Neither polls, although Gray is unlucky to miss out. Ablett 12, Selwood 10, Gray 2.

Ablett extends his lead in round 7 with yet another uncontroversial 3 votes. Nothing for Selwood. Gray gets a single vote against GWS, behind Polec and Ward. Ablett 15, Selwood 10, Gray 3.

Over rounds 8 and 9, all players play once. Gray earns his first B.O.G. against Freo, and Ablett gets three votes against St Kilda. Ablett 18, Selwood 10, Gray 6.

Round 10 and all is quiet on the western front.

Round 11 and there are no votes for the frontrunners. But Robbie Gray gets 3 votes against Melbourne, edging out Boak and Tyson. 18, 10, 9.

In round 12, Ablett gets all the stats in a loss against the Swans but the umpires give the 3 votes to Dan Hannebery. Ablett gets 2. As does Robbie Gray in a blowout win against the Saints, perhaps unfortunate to not get the 3 behind Hartlett. Again nothing for Selwood. Ablett 20, Selwood 10, Gray 11.

Round 13 sees Ablett narrowly miss out on the votes against WCE (with the votes going to Naitanui, Kennedy and Prestia). Gray gets another 2 votes against the Swans, behind Lance Franklin. 20, 10, 13.

In round 14, Ablett gets 2 votes against the Cats (Bennell 3). Nothing for Selwood. Gray has a reasonable game, but misses out. 22, 10, 13.

Round 15 and it’s 2 votes each for Ablett and Selwood, who polled behind Hodge and Heppell, respectively. Gray goes missing. 24, 12, 13.

Unfortunately for Gary Ablett, he sustains a shoulder injury in his round 16 match and takes no further part in the season. There are no votes for Selwood. Gray leads Port Adelaide in a tight loss against the Bombers with 30 touches and a goal. He gets 2 votes behind Zaharakis. 24, 12, 15.

In round 17, Selwood gets the maximum votes, just ahead of Motlop. Nothing for Gray. 24, 15, 15.

Round 18 sees Ablett’s lead further eroded. Selwood was the best on ground against GWS. While Gray, yet again, polls 2 votes, this time in a win against Melbourne, behind Tyson from the Demons. 24, 18, 17.

In round 19, Selwood closes in. Christensen is a clear B.O.G. for the Cats, but Selwood gets the 2. And nothing for Gray. 24, 20, 17.

In round 20, Selwood gets a single vote in a tight win against Freo, behind Taylor and Barlow. Port Adelaide lose a tight game against Sydney, and McGlynn gets the 3 votes. But Robbie Gray gets 37 disposals and 2 votes. 24, 21, 19.

Round 21 makes things interesting. Selwood is a non-factor. While Gray gets the maximum votes with 11 inside 50s in a comfortable win against the Suns. 24, 21, 22.

And Robbie Gray takes the lead in round 22 with 3 votes for a demolition job against the Blues. The Cats lose against Hawthorn and Selwood misses out. 24, 21, 25.

In round 23, Selwood was brilliant against the Lions, but gets only 2 votes behind Tom Hawkins. Robbie Gray has 33 touches and 2 goals. He too gets 2 votes, behind Lachie Neale. 24, 23, 27.
Click to expand...

Great insight by the way, but having watched all 3 of these games, I think Gray will get 2 against Melbourne (Tyson 3) , 1 against Sydney (Ebert 2, was brilliant that day), and I think he'll be lucky for 2 against GC. Bennell, Hartlett, Westhoff and Gray were all as good as each other and I think any could get 3, 2, 1 or not poll. But a great insight and has thoroughly convinced me on Gray. Think I might get on the Selwood/Gray quinella. Also out of curiosity how many votes do you have JPK on?
 
pete galvin said:
Umpires avoid Kornes like the plague??? um,he managed 8 votes last year,umpires wearing medical masks last year were they?? lol
Click to expand...

gee whiz 8 votes when he racked up touch after touch every week! he has been a serial underpoller his whole career....

Duritz said:
Does anyone think gray finishes outside the top 5?
Click to expand...

i will be surprised if he is top 5
 
Murphinator said:
gee whiz 8 votes when he racked up touch after touch every week! he has been a serial underpoller his whole career....



i will be surprised if he is top 5
Click to expand...
yeah,I think you are missing the point of my post...the remark was suggesting he wouldn't poll a vote coz the umps avoid him like the plague...I was just pointing out he got 8 votes the year before
 
Wouldn't be surprised to see Marc Murphy, Ryan Griffen and even Boak (over Gray) lead their team votes. Also have a feeling Franklin might just edge out Selwood and Ablett to win it.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

A strategy used previously could be having 3 absolute locks (team votes) in every single multi and then having two or three more legs of other leaders per team and changing it up every multi.

Problem is, that is 2010 when it was unbelievably successful the three locks were J. Brown, J. Watson, S. Thompson. These three payed on average 1.70 each. Since then, i think all betting agencies have changed so that the leader to win most votes is much much shorter so that there is no repeats of this.

Troubling.
 
TBellicious said:
A strategy used previously could be having 3 absolute locks (team votes) in every single multi and then having two or three more legs of other leaders per team and changing it up every multi.

Problem is, that is 2010 when it was unbelievably successful the three locks were J. Brown, J. Watson, S. Thompson. These three payed on average 1.70 each. Since then, i think all betting agencies have changed so that the leader to win most votes is much much shorter so that there is no repeats of this.

Troubling.
Click to expand...
Tried this last year with Brent Harvey who was paying about $1.30 for North most votes and Andrew Swallow (who played half a season) came from no where when he was paying about $12 to take it out. Never again
 
Im looking for a guarantee brownlow multi, unfortunately I'm with TAB and if I remember correctly they only allow 5 legs.

So what is the best 5 leg most votes from each team multi anyone can suggest for me.

I was thinking

Heppell most votes for Essendon
Cotchin most votes for Richmond
Robbie Gray most votes for Port
Tom Rockcliff Most for Bris
Scott Pendlebury most for Collingwood

bit worried about Beams overtaking Pendles and Boak overtaking Gray.

but if I put $285 on it for a $763 return.
what do you think of maybe Nathan Jones to take out the Dees- do you think Tyson can seriously overtake him
 
Piss Poor said:
Im looking for a guarantee brownlow multi, unfortunately I'm with TAB and if I remember correctly they only allow 5 legs.

So what is the best 5 leg most votes from each team multi anyone can suggest for me.

I was thinking

Heppell most votes for Essendon
Cotchin most votes for Richmond
Robbie Gray most votes for Port
Tom Rockcliff Most for Bris
Scott Pendlebury most for Collingwood

bit worried about Beams overtaking Pendles and Boak overtaking Gray.

but if I put $285 on it for a $763 return.
what do you think of maybe Nathan Jones to take out the Dees- do you think Tyson can seriously overtake him
Click to expand...
actually I'm not liking Pendles and I'm getting rid of Heppell not worth the risk for price

replacing with N Jones and B Gibbs return $1205
 
TBellicious said:
Right everyone, time to start getting serious!
What is everyones betting strategies and what will they be doing tomorrow betting wise? For example, will you be multying most team votes - if so, then who? What else?
Click to expand...

My strategy is going to be to get really pissed then try to get the leg over with the missus.
 
Piss Poor said:
Im looking for a guarantee brownlow multi, unfortunately I'm with TAB and if I remember correctly they only allow 5 legs.

So what is the best 5 leg most votes from each team multi anyone can suggest for me.

I was thinking

Heppell most votes for Essendon
Cotchin most votes for Richmond
Robbie Gray most votes for Port
Tom Rockcliff Most for Bris
Scott Pendlebury most for Collingwood

bit worried about Beams overtaking Pendles and Boak overtaking Gray.

but if I put $285 on it for a $763 return.
what do you think of maybe Nathan Jones to take out the Dees- do you think Tyson can seriously overtake him
Click to expand...
Leave as is. This is good value and all should really win. I highly doubt Pendles will get overtaken by Beams after going through each of the Collingwood games. Cotchin, Gray, Rockliff and Heppell are all deadest certainties
 
Does anyone know with the TAB handicap market about how it works? So If I wanted to get on Kennedy with a handicap of +4 does that mean he has to beat everyone on their original tally or everyone including their handicap? For example if I got on Kennedy with a +4 handicap, and Gray wins the count with 23 votes (before handicap), and Kennedy gets 21 votes yet due to his +4 handicap goes to 25 votes, do I win or does Gray win due to him having a +3 handicap and hence going to 26 votes?
 

Remove this Banner Ad

2014 Brownlow Medal

Similar threads

PowerfulPies2023
  • Sticky
AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal
20 21 22 23 24
Replies
588
Views
44K
showeringrn
S
rank and file
AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls
31 32 33 34 35
Replies
862
Views
68K
balmainforever
balmainforever
kickazz
Four arrested in 2022 Brownlow betting investigation
2 3 4
Replies
77
Views
4K
NYRB
N

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top