Position 2015 SuperCoach forwards

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Determinant interested in your thoughts on Griffen? ...type of role, who'll get first tagged, projections?

He isn't fwd eligible :)
I am completely in the same boat as everyone else on this one tbh, I do feel Cal is more likely to cop the initial tag, but how that plays out over multiple weeks is anyone's guess right now.
 
Huge upside and should be reaching a stage in his career where he can hold a high level of consistency. GWS should win a few more games in 2015 as well. He's in my initial side to start with and I'll see how it plays out.

Price tag means you would really want him to end up near the top of the forwards.

His problem is the fact that there are quality choices at a cheaper cost in the forward line this year.
 
If Dusty lines up in the centre in all his NAB games, he will be in my team. Hardwick want's him to become a "contest ball king" and a "tackle king" in the mould of Jobe. I like it.
 

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Billings > Bonts...............
(just wanted to get something happening like your avatar):D
Excellent, you are the first poster to mention that melee towards me. Wonder what Ryan Hargrave would get these days for breaking Heath Blacks jaw, he only got 3 weeks for it back then (ps not my photo but I did sit in front of it all, was great).
 
I haven't seen Gray in a lot of teams and I've noticed people mention that he is overpriced. What is the basis for this conclusion?

He averaged 127 over his last 7 games. 2 70's in Rd 2 & 3 before he got going, and a 46 when he had gastro against the Pies. I don't think he is overpriced at all, a certain starter in my side.
 
I haven't seen Gray in a lot of teams and I've noticed people mention that he is overpriced. What is the basis for this conclusion?

He averaged 127 over his last 7 games. 2 70's in Rd 2 & 3 before he got going, and a 46 when he had gastro against the Pies. I don't think he is overpriced at all, a certain starter in my side.
Because due to him getting those occasional low scores he will drop in price. Also will get more attention from opposition, and get played at FF sometimes which can effect scoring.
 
Because due to him getting those occasional low scores he will drop in price. Also will get more attention from opposition, and get played at FF sometimes which can effect scoring.

3 scores for the entire season under 89 is hardly occasional. After Round 4, 17/22 games he scored 100+ (inc. finals), and one of those sub-100 games he had gastro. The others he scored 96, 93, 89 & 77. Follow that up with a 140 and he won't drop far. He got tagged at times last season and it didn't bother him. Also when he plays forward he kicks goals, but I think he will play majority in the midfield.
 
I haven't seen Gray in a lot of teams and I've noticed people mention that he is overpriced. What is the basis for this conclusion?

He averaged 127 over his last 7 games. 2 70's in Rd 2 & 3 before he got going, and a 46 when he had gastro against the Pies. I don't think he is overpriced at all, a certain starter in my side.

Personally, I haven't pick him because his price is at its absolute peak. Even when he was in his top form last year he never broke 600k. There's too much value in the likes of Goddard, Lids and Swan to pass them up as starters, they are proven consistent 100+ scorers, whereas Gray has had one incredible year once free from injuries.
Just gonna hope he has a stinker at some stage as I think he'll cop a lot more attention.
Forward upgrade #1.
 
Personally, I haven't pick him because his price is at its absolute peak. Even when he was in his top form last year he never broke 600k. There's too much value in the likes of Goddard, Lids and Swan to pass them up as starters, they are proven consistent 100+ scorers, whereas Gray has had one incredible year once free from injuries.
Just gonna hope he has a stinker at some stage as I think he'll cop a lot more attention.
Forward upgrade #1.

Fair enough. I have Lids & Swan, but I'm thinking Gray instead of Goddard at this stage. It's only 40k, and Goddard is ageing whereas Gray still has upside.

The reason for his big season last year was his first injury-free pre-season and season. Now with a second injury-free pre-season under his belt I can't see him going backwards. He will be the #1 forward if he stays healthy so I'm going to start him.
 
Fair enough. I have Lids & Swan, but I'm thinking Gray instead of Goddard at this stage. It's only 40k, and Goddard is ageing whereas Gray still has upside.

The reason for his big season last year was his first injury-free pre-season and season. Now with a second injury-free pre-season under his belt I can't see him going backwards. He will be the #1 forward if he stays healthy so I'm going to start him.

I see where your coming from but I think he's at his peak. Don't see much room for improvement.
Think he's the most likely of the premo Fwds to drop early due to Port's harder draw and the SC output of other Port players (Wines, Hartlett, Wingard etc).

I don't want that to come off as bashing the guy, he's a gun.
 
If Dusty lines up in the centre in all his NAB games, he will be in my team. Hardwick want's him to become a "contest ball king" and a "tackle king" in the mould of Jobe. I like it.

You had me at mould of Jobe!

I haven't seen Gray in a lot of teams and I've noticed people mention that he is overpriced. What is the basis for this conclusion?

He averaged 127 over his last 7 games. 2 70's in Rd 2 & 3 before he got going, and a 46 when he had gastro against the Pies. I don't think he is overpriced at all, a certain starter in my side.

The fact that this was his first big year puts a few people off on his price tag, no one is certain he can replicate that year. 111 ppg is a big ask for someone who previously hadn't even topped 91 before. Plus he has had injury trouble in the past, with his price tag you would really want a bit more going for you than 1 awesome year.

Will still feature in a lot of teams, but a prime candidate to drop in price and be available cheaper at another point in the year.
 
I feel like the only guy not starting with Goddard this season, maybe I am crazy but Id rather an extra premo in my mids and a rookie in my fwd line to upgrade later.

Doing this would allow me to have a starting midfield of : Gaz, Pendles, Watson, Fyfe and Selwood.

I dunno...

I'm also not keen on Goddard. Ageing (32?), past his prime, few soft tissue injuries last year, Essendon will struggle, probably won't see as much midfield time, not much upside if you ask me. Goddard for 548k or Wines/Griffen/Watson - no brainer!
 
I think the reason for disagreement here is that people are wrongly calling it the "second year" syndrome when it's really the "year after" syndrome. It's not that players tend to have a let down in their second year ... they tend to have it the year after what is arguably their breakout year, regardless of how many years into their career that happens.

Lets look at the players mentioned and a few others. I'm using SC scores as they are the most reliable objective guide we have to performance.

Martin
2010 77.9 (promising start)
2011 98.9 (breakout year)
2012 88.5 (suffered a let down)
2013 101.8 (bounced back to breakout year form)

Fyfe
2010 72.6 (promising start)
2011 108.0 (breakout year)
2012 93.2 (suffered a let down)
2013 105.5 (bounced back breakout year form)

Zorko
2012 100.0 (broke out in his first year)
2013 82.9 (suffered a let down)
2014 99.0 (bounced back to breakout form)

Wingard
2012 51.7 (ordinary start)
2013 98.6 (breakout year)
2014 79.9 (suffered a let down)
2015 ?

H.Bennell
2011 68.6 (fair start)
2012 98.6 (breakout year)
2013 97.5 (maintained form)
2014 95.5 (maintained form)

D.Swallow
2011 79.7 (promising start)
2012 78.2 (no real change)
2013 79.2 (no real change)
2014 103.2 (breakout year)
2015 ?

Wines
2013 74.0 (promising start)
2014 100.3 (breakout year)
2015 ?

Macrae
2013 61.4 (fair start)
2014 100.1 (breakout year)
2015 ?

Bontempelli
2014 78.6 (promising start)
2015 ?

Martin, Fyfe and Zorko all follow the pattern of having a breakout year, falling away significantly the year after and then bouncing back the following year. Wingard may bounce back too. Bennell is the exception as he maintained his top form. The comment that started this debate was about Bontempelli but, as promising as it was, his first season wasn't good enough for him to suffer a let down in 2015. If anything the pattern suggests he's more likely to break out this year. The players I'd be concerned about are Wines, Macrae and Swallow. They're the ones most likely to suffer a let down this season ... according to the pattern.

Fyfe's lean year was only due to him doing his shoulder in the first quarter v Brisbane and then being rushed back in 13 weeks later on no WAFL games.
 
I'm also not keen on Goddard. Ageing (32?), past his prime, few soft tissue injuries last year, Essendon will struggle, probably won't see as much midfield time, not much upside if you ask me. Goddard for 548k or Wines/Griffen/Watson - no brainer!

He is only 29, and whilst he may be past his prime, his prime was a 130 ppg average. Take out his injury affect 11, and he averaged 107. No reason why he wont keep that up this year. Still moves well, and regardless of midfield time, he can have an impact anywhere.
 
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