2016 AFL - Round 10

[Profphat]

Definitely very interesting game. North's biggest challenge for the year. If North get up, they're not pretenders. Predicting a tough contested game, similar to the Hawthorn Sydney game last week

And the Roos vs Dogs game.
Based on that, I'm going to assume North is going to try and lock the game down

 

[free at last]

I think your right on predicting a tough contested game - I think it may have similarities with the NM / WB game. Sydney (minus Richards) won't want to have too much uncontested ball coming into forward 50 with a potent NM forward line.

I'm not sure it's their biggest challenge though as the WB game showed their ability to adapt and grind out a good win against a quality opponent. With Higgins out and if Wells misses they might lack a bit of polish to go with the grunt though.

North's number one stopper(Jacobs) is out too.

 

[targett]

North's number one stopper(Jacobs) is out too.

Daniel Wells to return

 

[WCE_phil]

I joined all the major bookies for the purpose of clearing bonus bets and for bonus whoring all the promotions available (some of which are massively profitable). This would also give you the option of choosing the best odds on your chosen bets as odds can fluctuate across sites.

Sounds like you have a successful system in place so that's the hard work done.

At the moment there is not enough data for my system to be reliable due to the nature of only putting on multi's for the last 2 years and only 1 multi a week. If i was betting multiple lines and multi's at this stage i think it would have put me at a loss. Also with such a small sample pool you take out my 2 biggest wins of each year and im well into negative numbers hence why i have stayed small. If my win ratio continues to improve and i see more return i will venture into larger bets next year. I also think that if you are clearing a higher volume in multi's you'd be able to get away with more advantage bets which overall would significantly improve the return.

I literally only found this part of the website last friday.

 

[GROTTO]

Adelaide/GWS-U200.5

Where do you have this game total being at? Is there a concern for you given these two teams have the biggest forward lines in the competition?

 

[benji21]

At the moment there is not enough data for my system to be reliable due to the nature of only putting on multi's for the last 2 years and only 1 multi a week. If i was betting multiple lines and multi's at this stage i think it would have put me at a loss. Also with such a small sample pool you take out my 2 biggest wins of each year and im well into negative numbers hence why i have stayed small. If my win ratio continues to improve and i see more return i will venture into larger bets next year. I also think that if you are clearing a higher volume in multi's you'd be able to get away with more advantage bets which overall would significantly improve the return.

I literally only found this part of the website last friday.

This is my first year of actually recording my bets. I don't really have a system i bet more with opinion and simple rules. I generally stay away from multis bigger than 3. So yeah i have accounts all over the place for different prices and markets. Makes a fair difference when betting single bets.

 

[mookieb]

At the moment there is not enough data for my system to be reliable due to the nature of only putting on multi's for the last 2 years and only 1 multi a week. If i was betting multiple lines and multi's at this stage i think it would have put me at a loss. Also with such a small sample pool you take out my 2 biggest wins of each year and im well into negative numbers hence why i have stayed small. If my win ratio continues to improve and i see more return i will venture into larger bets next year. I also think that if you are clearing a higher volume in multi's you'd be able to get away with more advantage bets which overall would significantly improve the return.

I literally only found this part of the website last friday.

What's the rationale for just betting multis?

As a minimum I would join William Hill as they have a multi insurance promo that doesn't necessarily have to be H2H.

 

[free at last]

Is anyone liking the pies at the line?

 

[csnody]

Where do you have this game total being at? Is there a concern for you given these two teams have the biggest forward lines in the competition?

Not that you were asking from me specifically, but I have this game at 199 so it was a no bet from me. GWS midfield will destroy the crows, both are rebounding 50 teams so you would think a decent score. Shootout if you like. Line should be pretty close.

 

[balmainforever]

OPENING POST UPDATED

ODDS AT 14:00 ON 24/05/16

 

[Youdy]

Not that you were asking from me specifically, but I have this game at 199 so it was a no bet from me. GWS midfield will destroy the crows, both are rebounding 50 teams so you would think a decent score. Shootout if you like. Line should be pretty close.

I take it you're quite bearish on the crows chances?

I expect a similar result to Geelong/WB who have similarly strong mid fields to the giants
In both of those games though, your midfield was smashed but your forward line kept you in the game, given the giants injuries down back I would assume this is a strong chance

What has happened to Thompson? just starting to show his age or?, looked in vintage form early

Giants away form is still an unknown for me? Have smashed St Kilda and made heavy work of beating fremantle

 

[Spads]

Getting on these favourites early:
1U Melbourne -3.5
1U Saints -19.5
1U Gee -39.5

Will be looking to get on north, gws and the bulldogs later in the week.

 

[WCE_phil]

What's the rationale for just betting multis?

As a minimum I would join William Hill as they have a multi insurance promo that doesn't necessarily have to be H2H.

I use a system that bases itself around 3 and 4 part multi's whereby i use variables lines or direct wins with low/lower chances of failure to boost a single line or direct win i feel is at worst a 50/50.

So this week with the away form shown across the league against top 8 sides, with adelaide having the geelong loss at home fresh in their minds and with GWS being down in defence i favour the crows to win at home against GWS. My system has them as 2/1 favourites yet i got on at 1.87. I then have that boosted by saints at 1.34 vs freo and hawthorn at 1.12 on a half/full time double to push the odds out to 2.90. Fremantle is further hit with injury and im not sure mundy will make it across and i rate the saints to have as it stands a better ruck, midfield and forward line than fremantle as well as freo having to travel interstate. The only negative there is the extra days break but i think it was a tougher game in the wet for freo than it was for the saints against essendon. Hawks on the double I just don't see not coming to pass. The news of roughead over a week ago in situations like this in the past it can have an effect both ways. Hawks are on the rebound and with their past history against the lions in what is an absolute rabble at the moment i am very strong on. This week it's only a 3 way multi as i didn't like any of the other games and see to much potential fluctuation for it to be worth padding the multi with another line.

My multi odds generally range from about 2.90 up to 4.50 however some have been a little further in either direction. Im some rounds i won't bet at all because my system doesn't see value or only sees value in or 2 matches. In these instances I could go with direct bets but why take the risk at this stage whilst im still ironing out kinks in my database and system especially while it continues to stay successful and is based around multi's. If i apply the same system and logic over single games and my rate of return drops (especially below break even) then why do it?

 

[csnody]

I take it you're quite bearish on the crows chances?

I expect a similar result to Geelong/WB who have similarly strong mid fields to the giants
In both of those games though, your midfield was smashed but your forward line kept you in the game, given the giants injuries down back I would assume this is a strong chance

What has happened to Thompson? just starting to show his age or?, looked in vintage form early

Giants away form is still an unknown for me? Have smashed St Kilda and made heavy work of beating fremantle

Crows forward line is the only thing keeping us in the game. Like the two examples you gave, we were beaten in the midfield and rebounded from 50 quickly to score. Both GWS and Crows can do this. Game could easily be similar scoring line to the WB/Crows game so I am staying away.

 

[mookieb]

I use a system that bases itself around 3 and 4 part multi's whereby i use variables lines or direct wins with low/lower chances of failure to boost a single line or direct win i feel is at worst a 50/50.

So this week with the away form shown across the league against top 8 sides, with adelaide having the geelong loss at home fresh in their minds and with GWS being down in defence i favour the crows to win at home against GWS. My system has them as 2/1 favourites yet i got on at 1.87. I then have that boosted by saints at 1.34 vs freo and hawthorn at 1.12 on a half/full time double to push the odds out to 2.90. Fremantle is further hit with injury and im not sure mundy will make it across and i rate the saints to have as it stands a better ruck, midfield and forward line than fremantle as well as freo having to travel interstate. The only negative there is the extra days break but i think it was a tougher game in the wet for freo than it was for the saints against essendon. Hawks on the double I just don't see not coming to pass. The news of roughead over a week ago in situations like this in the past it can have an effect both ways. Hawks are on the rebound and with their past history against the lions in what is an absolute rabble at the moment i am very strong on. This week it's only a 3 way multi as i didn't like any of the other games and see to much potential fluctuation for it to be worth padding the multi with another line.

My multi odds generally range from about 2.90 up to 4.50 however some have been a little further in either direction. Im some rounds i won't bet at all because my system doesn't see value or only sees value in or 2 matches. In these instances I could go with direct bets but why take the risk at this stage whilst im still ironing out kinks in my database and system especially while it continues to stay successful and is based around multi's. If i apply the same system and logic over single games and my rate of return drops (especially below break even) then why do it?

Interesting that's similar logic to what I am going to use with the WH multi insurance promo. Back 3 bets where I am really confident and then take a risk with a bet on a higher return that if it loses I will get my money back anyway. Doesn't always work out that way - last week lost on Geelong but got Adelaide 60+ so money back.

 

[Infra Ted]

Where do you have this game total being at? Is there a concern for you given these two teams have the biggest forward lines in the competition?

Yeah I'm thinking the same thing. Crows have a tendency to score big and concede big. I'd be leaning towards the overs.

 

[mookieb]

Some totals for R10:
Sydney/North-U180.5
Brisbane/Hawthorn-U200.5
St.Kilda/Freo- U182.5
Essendon/Richmond-U177.5
Adelaide/GWS-U200.5

I really like the Syd / NM under. I think you might see a repeat of the NM / WB or Syd / Hawks game.

The Adelaide game on the other hand you have a potent midfield and forward line (GWS) vs a porous backline and average midfield in Adelaide. On the plus side Adelaide also has a very potent forward line. GWS also has several injuries to first choice defenders. I could see this one being a shoot out.

I'll tail the rest, but rather an extra unit on the first game and skip the last.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Numbers > opinions
Every. Single. Time.

 

[mookieb]

Numbers > opinions
Every. Single. Time.

Did the numbers predict a Collingwood win by 4 goals last week?

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Did the numbers predict a Collingwood win by 4 goals last week?

No they predicted them to cover though.

Did your opinion predict it? Don't remember reading it pre match

 

[mookieb]

No they predicted them to cover though.

Did your opinion predict it? Don't remember reading it pre match

No certainly didn't predict it to be honest.

Make no mistake I will be tailing Chrisdon's totals as the numbers don't lie, but will be selective if something jumps out at me.

 

[Sausage Legs]

West Coast to kick over 20.5 goals @ 1.92 v Goldy

 

[WCE_phil]

West Coast to kick over 20.5 goals @ 1.92 v Goldy

I'd keep a distinct eye on the weather forecast before jumping on this. If that saturday storm pushes to saturday night or sunday morning at the very least the ground will be slick and 21 goals becomes a lot more unlikely.

 

[Spads]

No they predicted them to cover though.

Did your opinion predict it? Don't remember reading it pre match

You are probably experiencing significant cognitive dissonance here. You are clearly trying to help but the subtext of the response renders you unwilling to register 2 shits.

 

[chrisdon16]

Where do you have this game total being at? Is there a concern for you given these two teams have the biggest forward lines in the competition?

192.5, I have to trust the system at 8+ point differential. Both attacking teams, but don't forget defence. GWS have the 4th best defence in the comp (only 50 points behind Bulldogs who are #1) and are able to keep good offensive teams to limited scoring. It could easily go over 200.5 though...