2016 AFL - Round 11

[freo_leo29]

Barlow $4.40 to get 30+ vs Essendon is serious value. Ross will look at this as a must win and I'd say Barlow is our best healthy contested ball winner (Yes I rate him higher than Neale).
Gotta think Ross is gonna go all out to win this one or risk... (further?) embarrassment...

might want to wait for Tab's odds
he was paying $3 for 25 last week and $6 for 30
be careful though because i got screwed over last week by the amount of time he spent on the bench, seems to be swapping with blakely and Deboer, as we shift to youth, those 3 were our lowest Time on Ground players last week and i doubt it will change much this week

 

[benji21]

Sydney v gc
4U over 9.5 behind 1st half 2.15 SB
3U under 10.5 2.22 CB

 

[kyan]

Sydney v gc
4U over 9.5 behind 1st half 2.15 SB
3U under 10.5 2.22 CB

unless you have moved the market, i think you mean 2nd half

 

[benji21]

View attachment 252773


unless you have moved the market, i think you mean 2nd half

Definetely first half. Double checked

 

[frenchfri12]

Looking ahead to the rain in the Gold Coast/Sydney game lets try and hit some crazy behinds markets. Got close with richmond vs freo. Sticking with gold coast behinds at these ridiculous odds.

10$ on each one.

Home Team Total Match Behinds 1st Q 7+ @ 233
Home Team Total Match Behinds 2nd Q 7+ @ 236
Home Team Total Match Behinds 3rd Q 7+ @ 248
Home Team Total Match Behinds 4th Q 7+ @ 252

Total Match Behinds 1st Q 13+ @ 421
Total Match Behinds 2nd Q 13+ @ 440
Total Match Behinds 3rd Q 13+ @ 265
Total Match Behinds 4th Q 13+ @ 254

Home Team Total Match Behinds 1st Half 11-12 @ 701
Home Team Total Match Behinds 2nd Half 11-12 @ 701
Home Team Total Match Behinds 1st Half 13+ @ 701
Home Team Total Match Behinds 2nd Half 13+ @ 701

fire away boys

these odds are insane, surely you'll win one of them.

 

[targett]

these odds are insane, surely you'll win one of them.

Fantastic odds , However there's no sure thing

 

[kyan]

Definetely first half. Double checked

you must of moved the market on sportsbet then, i took the 2nd half over 9.5 for 2.1 on sports bet and under 10.5 paying 2.28 on crown.

placed my bet on crown first and was referred to the traders and less than 50% of my original take was accepted. It would be good if all sites had the feature like sportsbet/bet365 and pinnacle do and show you what their maximum liability is per market

 

[free at last]

Saints v crows o/u 189.5 game total is looking enticing with 80% chance of showers,up to 10mm of rain forecasted.I've got the total set at 190 pts.

 

[Zealbee]

Saints v crows o/u 189.5 game total is looking enticing with 80% chance of showers,up to 10mm of rain forecasted.I've got the total set at 190 pts.

Over or under?

 

[Spads]

1U Rich +14.5
1U Mel +34.5
1U Car -23.5
1U Gee -8.5
1U Port +5.5
1U WB -3.5

 

[STANDBYHIRD12]

Over or under?

I assume with showers forecasted he means unders.

I could be wrong though.

 

[benji21]

you must of moved the market on sportsbet then, i took the 2nd half over 9.5 for 2.1 on sports bet and under 10.5 paying 2.28 on crown.

placed my bet on crown first and was referred to the traders and less than 50% of my original take was accepted. It would be good if all sites had the feature like sportsbet/bet365 and pinnacle do and show you what their maximum liability is per market

Yeah i had issues with crownbet. I got on before the traders were in so could only get on for half a unit initially. Gave me a scare as i went with sportsbet first haha

 

[free at last]

Over or under?

Sorry lad,definitely the under.

At least four different weather sites are all in agreement that a period of showers/rain will push through the state of SA during Sunday.

 

[Jugada]

Couple of ones at Madbookie i like

Cameron more goals than T Lynch (GC) @ 1.83
Petrie more goals than Matera @ 1.93

 

[Zealbee]

Couple of ones at Madbookie i like

Cameron more goals than T Lynch (GC) @ 1.83
Petrie more goals than Matera @ 1.93

Along similar lines I like Walker more goals than Lynch @ 1.83.

 

[targett]

Along similar lines I like Walker more goals than Lynch @ 1.83.

Pray for rain you blokes

 

[Zealbee]

Pray for rain you blokes

Don't need to pray for it, it's coming.

 

[free at last]

Pray for rain you blokes

The Suns & swans will be praying they don't drown!

 

[free at last]

Holy $hit,swans v Suns o/u total is at 137.5 pts.I can't remember seeing a total set that low prior to a ball being bounced.

 

[mookieb]

System is on the unders again for R11:
Richmond/North-U182.5
Hawthorn/Melbourne-U198.5
Bulldogs/West Coast-U178.5

Few more games but thinking lines will change throughout the week.

Well I tailed all the o/u last week except the Ade/GWS game which of course came in so i'm not bucking the system and tailing all the above bets this week.

I do like the unders this week (as I did last week) because I think we are seeing a comeback in contested footy and the possession game, more so than the start of the year where it was a bit more free flowing with the new rules. Taggers are making a comeback and several games last week were dour, tight affairs. Even Freo in a throw back to previous years strangled the Saints for two quarters with pressure and contested footy.

 

[Dusty3]

N Jones over 26.5 - 7/10 this year and with Viney out will need to shoulder even more of the inside load this week. Hawthorn are essentially dead average with allowing 25+/30+ against so this does shoulder on the assumed dominance of Gawn in the ruck + increased reliance on his inside work.

Hall under 28.5 - Did not attend a centre bounce last week, given the game will be highly contested, of which Sydney definitely have the better inside brigade, even if he is played in the middle there is no guarantee this doesn't go under anyway. So this is basically a calculated guess that even if Hall doesn't play away from the middle, he still probably won't make the overs anyway. Sydney also on average only have 2.33 players 25+ against, which would like be reserved for Ablett/Prestia regardless if applied to this game.

Scott Thompson over 23.5 - St Kilda worst team at allowing 25+, with 4.78 average per game. With the game allegedly going to be played under light showers I can see this game suiting Thompson. Also the fact he's gone 22 the last two weeks with reduced game time (78 and 72 percent) when the previous 8 rounds he'd averaged 86% TOG. Thus like Hall, given a return to normal TOG I see this being overs easily, with this reduced TOG he's still a decent chance so this is a calculated guess essentially as well.

GC over 1.5 behinds 1st quarter - Occured 9/10 times so far this year, wild weather, GC having a much closer to full strength side, no brainer.

GWS over 3.5 goals in the 2nd : 9/10 this year (with 3 goals in round 1 the only loss), kicked 6 in the 2nd last time against the Cats. Again no brainer.

Am currently studying hard for exams so this is likely all I'll bet on this week, gotta try concentrate hahahahaha.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Couple of ones at Madbookie i like

Cameron more goals than T Lynch (GC) @ 1.83
Petrie more goals than Matera @ 1.93

Along similar lines I like Walker more goals than Lynch @ 1.83.

check your pending bets, they love to cancel bets after they've been accepted.

GC vs Sydney no longer available in the player bets section

 

[targett]

Mad bookie vs SB

 

[Jugada]

Yeah most of their odds are putrid, probably close to $1.60 either side but you can dig through them and find a few lop sided match ups

 

[kyan]

Suns vs Swans Total points (behinds) market

Bet365 Over 20.5 $2.05
Crownbet Under 20.5 $2.52