2016 AFL - Round 12

[AFLFootyChick]

It does say ANY team...

Actually, they've amended it to THAT game. It didn't originally state the game. Now it does.

 

[chrisdon16]

Just one total at the moment
Melbourne/Collingwood-U190.5

 

[chrisdon16]

2 more
Geelong/North-O180.5 (365)
GWS/Sydney-U185.5 (SB)

 

[csnody]

Round 12 Totals:

Ess/Hawks U184.5 (b365)
Geel/North O180.5 (b365)
GWS/Syd O182.5 (b365)

Good luck to all!

 

[Robo87]

1.5u hawks under 14.5behinds @2.24 (Cr) (gone under in 9of11 games still)
1u hawks under 12.5behinds @3.70 (Cr)
0.5u hawks under 10.5behinds @7 (Cr)

 

[kyan]

If you like North Melbourne to win now might be the best time to bet on them as tom hawkins has been offered a week by the MRP, the price on ladbrokes has gone from 2.15 to 2 in the last half hour, can still pick them up at 2.15 at some bookies

 

[Derzzy]

Saints are such an inconsistent team. They are a betting nightmare.

They almost beat North four weeks ago and since then they have lost by 103 points in Perth, 88 points in Adelaide, and struggled against the then winless Dockers at Etihad.

They have put in some stellar performances like knocking off a red-hot Demons, and getting within a kick of the Hawks and Roos. They were also very impressive in their win against the Pies too.

I think I would prefer to go for the form team instead of going for an inconsistent team capable of playing well.

Completely agree with everything you just said......but i actually think theyll win this weekend

 

[laam]

1.5u hawks under 14.5behinds @2.24 (Cr) (gone under in 9of11 games still)
1u hawks under 12.5behinds @3.70 (Cr)
0.5u hawks under 10.5behinds @7 (Cr)

How much are others allowed on for these, I managed $8, $4 and $2?

 

[iluvparis]

Essendon into $1.33 for least wins. Should have gone with the gut last week @ $2

You'll get better on betfair if you're patient enough

 

[benji21]

Brisbane drifting. Any thoughts on brissy beating freo? Haven't watched many brissy games but i think freo were made to look a lot better than they were by essendon not even really turning up

 

[Chubberson]

Completely agree with everything you just said......but i actually think theyll win this weekend

I'd be staying away from the Saints. Riewoldt, Monty, Dempster are all sore and Carlton are playing hard running two way footy. I don't see them getting over the Blues, Gibbs won't be quiet two weeks in a row and Murphy should be back.

 

[jaymasha]

How much are others allowed on for these, I managed $8, $4 and $2?

If you're a shit punter like me, you won't be limited. Most I've ever put on those markets is $120

 

[Mjs94]

Brisbane drifting. Any thoughts on brissy beating freo? Haven't watched many brissy games but i think freo were made to look a lot better than they were by essendon not even really turning up

Definitely worth a shot. Have taken it too Sydney, Hawthorn and gave North trouble at the GABBA.

 

[targett]

How much are others allowed on for these, I managed $8, $4 and $2?

5,10,15

 

[Boxhead182]

Love the value for Adelaide this week. Eagles havnt really beaten anyone good this year they just beat up on average teams at home. Crows are red hot, might have abit at the crows line

 

[Chubberson]

5.25$ for Gold Coast against richmond is good and 1.41$ for Rocky to get 30 possies, last time they played Crowley was on him and he got 45. Not bets I'd take if ur already down for the season. Carlton at 1.60 is great value, bookies still not sold on them by the looks.

 

[free at last]

Anyone thinking Hawthorn might fail to cover the -67.5 pts against Essendon on Friday night?

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Anyone thinking Hawthorn might fail to cover the -67.5 pts against Essendon on Friday night?

They need the percentage boost of a big win, but I can also see Clarkson resting a couple of players. I'd be more inclined to think 40-50 is the safer margin.

 

[WCE_phil]

Love the value for Adelaide this week. Eagles havnt really beaten anyone good this year they just beat up on average teams at home. Crows are red hot, might have abit at the crows line

Crows on the line is a very good bet this week. Expect a few changes for us, nicnat potentially out and a few other very sore bodies.

 

[mookieb]

Saints are such an inconsistent team. They are a betting nightmare.

They almost beat North four weeks ago and since then they have lost by 103 points in Perth, 88 points in Adelaide, and struggled against the then winless Dockers at Etihad.

They have put in some stellar performances like knocking off a red-hot Demons, and getting within a kick of the Hawks and Roos. They were also very impressive in their win against the Pies too.

I think I would prefer to go for the form team instead of going for an inconsistent team capable of playing well.

Might have to disagree with you on this one to a certain degree. They are a young team and lack consistency, but I expected that they might "mail it in" on the road trips. Late last year they got pumped by the Eagles and again so a couple of weeks ago and against Adelaide. It's a tough road trip and even the Coach stated after the game that the players probably doubted they could win.

Two good performances in a row then surrender meekly on the extended road trip. Last year after every win they were very poor the next week, but they seem to be able to string a couple of good performances together now.

They seem to perform well against teams that lack pace (Melbourne, Collingwood, Freo), but they were surprisingly competitive against Hawks and NM.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Anyone thinking Hawthorn might fail to cover the -67.5 pts against Essendon on Friday night?

Yup, we have been average since round 2, we should win, but haven't really put away any sides this year. Said it before the Brisbane margin looked better than it was, and we have fallen over the line against St.kilda, Dogs, Crows and Melbourne. Mitchell finally being tagged by the opposition has really stuffed our ability to control the ball off half back. its a good line, even for Essendon to cover.

 

[targett]

Round 12 Totals:

Ess/Hawks U184.5 (b365)
Geel/North O180.5 (b365)
GWS/Syd O182.5 (b365)

Good luck to all!

What if it rains at Spotless

 

[csnody]

What if it rains at Spotless

Then I'm stuffed.

 

[the_big_sav]

5.25$ for Gold Coast against richmond is good and 1.41$ for Rocky to get 30 possies, last time they played Crowley was on him and he got 45. Not bets I'd take if ur already down for the season. Carlton at 1.60 is great value, bookies still not sold on them by the looks.

all over the gold coast win/line/pick your own line

 

[Dusty3]

Compiling a few bets whilst I have the time...

Hawthorn under 3.5 behinds 2nd quarter @ $2.10 - gone under 10/11 times this season, 2nd quarter is their worst overall whilst Essendon's median loss for the quarter is by 5 thus expect it to be reasonably competitive until blowing out sometime in the 2nd half.

Essendon +16.5 2nd quarter @ $1.85, Hawthorn only won by this 3/11 times, Essendon only failed to cover 3/11 times.

Fremantle -1.5 in the 3rd @ $1.91, Brisbane only won two 3rd quarters for the season, Fremantle have surprisingly won 6, and the last 3 in a row. Apart from this Brisbane are in my opinion a complete rabble too.

North win first quarter @ $1.89, North have won 8/11 including 7 of the last 8 (faltering obviously against Sydney) with a median differential of 15 across the season and 16.5 over the last 6 weeks. Geelong are essentially dead average overall in the 1st over the season. Hawkins out helps this too.

Adelaide over 3.5 goals in the 3rd @ $2.30 - literally 11/11 this season, whilst WC have played mostly 'easybeat' teams at home, solid bet (Also why are Adelaide @ $2.80 I don't get it?).

GWS over 3.5 goals in the 2nd @ $2.20 - 9/11 this season, risky as Sydney have only allowed over 3.5 against in the 2nd twice this season, however one of those was GWS earlier in the season so not terribly worried about that stat.

Will post player market plays once they're all released later in the week